Ricardian equivalence

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Ricardian equivalence, (also known as the Barro-Ricardo equivalence proposition or Ricardian rent), is an economic theory which suggests that it does not matter whether a government finances its spending with debt or tax increase, total level of demand in an economy would be the same. It was proposed, and then rejected, by the 19th century economist David Ricardo.

Contents

[edit] Introduction

In simple terms, the theory can be described as follows. Governments may either finance their spending by taxing current taxpayers, issuing bonds to taxpayers which yield a return to the taxpayer or they may borrow money. However, they must eventually repay this borrowing by raising taxes above what they would otherwise have been in future. The choice is therefore between "tax now" and "tax later".

Suppose that the government finances some extra spending through deficits - i.e. tax later. Ricardo argued that although taxpayers would have more money now, they would realise that they would have to pay higher tax in future and therefore save the tax cut in order to pay the future tax rise. The extra saving by consumers would exactly offset the extra spending by government, so overall demand would remain unchanged.

In 1974 Robert J. Barro published an article entitled "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?" in the Journal of Political Economy (Vol. 82, No. 6. (Nov. - Dec., 1974), pp. 1095-1117). This model assumes that families act as infinitely lived dynasties because of intergenerational altruism, capital markets are perfect (meaning that all can borrow and lend at a single rate) and the path of government expenditures is fixed. Under these conditions, if governments finance deficits by issuing bonds, families will grant bequests to children just large enough to offset the higher taxes that will be needed to pay off those bonds. In the Conclusions of the paper (page 1116) he stated that in the case where the marginal net-wealth effect of government bonds is close to zero (...) fiscal effects involving changes in the relative amounts of tax and debt finance for a given amount of public expenditure would have no effect on aggregate demand, interest rates, and capital formation. A sentence which sounded as the negation of the Keynesian theory and which unleashed a strong reaction by the Keynesian school. This paper was an important contribution to the New Classical Macroeconomics, built around the assumption of rational expectations.

Ricardian Equivalence suggests that government attempts to influence demand using fiscal policy will prove fruitless. It can be contrasted with alternative theories in Keynesian economics. In Keynesian models, a multiplier effect means that fiscal policy, far from being impotent, has a geared effect on demand, with a one pound increase in deficit spending increasing demand by more than one pound.

Empirical research rejects Ricardian equivalence in its pure form, although some studies have found Ricardian effects in saving behavior. For a technical review of the literature, see M. Gabriella Briotti, “Economic Reactions to Public Finance Consolidation: a Survey of the Literature,” European Central Bank Occasional Paper No. 38, Oct. 2005.

[edit] Assumptions of Ricardian equivalence

Ricardian equivalence states that a deficit-financed increase in government spending will not lead to an increase in aggregate demand. If consumers are 'Ricardian' they will save more now to compensate for the higher taxes they expect to face in the future, as the government has to pay back its debts. The increased government spending is exactly offset by decreased consumption on the part of the public, so aggregate demand does not change.

To work, this needs several conditions, most commonly:

  • A perfect capital market where any household can borrow or save as much as is required at a fixed rate which is the same for all persons at a given date.
  • The path of government spending is fixed
  • Intergenerational concern. The tax rise required may not occur for centuries, and will be paid off by the great-great-grandchildren of the population around at the time the debt was incurred. Ricardian equivalence only happens when the current generation has some concern for all future generations, even if not perfect concern. Barro phrased this as "any operative intergenerational transfer".

These assumptions are widely challenged. The perfect capital market hypothesis is often held up for particular criticism because of the existence of liquidity constraints which invalidate the lifetime income hypothesis which it is based on. The existence of international capital markets also complicates the picture.

However, the underlying intuition of the Barro-Ricardo model is that individual action can unravel Government policy, that the economy does not act in a mechanistic manner, and that policies can have unintended consequences. This is a key point of modern macroeconomic policy.

[edit] Mistakes, critiques and irrealism of Barro's Theory

  • In 1979 Robert J. Barro published an article entitled "On the Determination of the Public Debt" in the Journal of Political Economy (Vol. 87, No. 5. , pp. 940-971) where he defined (page 940) as "Ricardian equivalence theorem on public debt" that proposition "that shifts between debt and tax finance for a given amount of public expenditure would have no first-order effect on the real interest rate, volume of private investment, etc." and (note 1, page 940) he wrote that "The Ricardian equivalence proposition is presented in Ricardo". However, it should be noted that Ricardo himself never believed in this equivalence. In the Funding Systems Ricardo, in considering the differences between financing a war by taxes or borrowing argued that "there is no real difference in either of the modes" but in pp.186-187 he continued "but the people who paid the taxes never so estimate them, and therefore do not manage their private affairs accordingly"; in other words, if people had rational expectations they would be indifferent between the two systems, but since they do not have them, they are subjected to a fiscal illusion which distorts their decisions.
  • in 1976 was criticised by Martin Feldstein in "Perceived Wealth in Bonds and Social Security: A Comment" in the Journal of Political Economy (Vol. 84, No. 2. , pp. 331-336), who argues that Barro achieved his results not considering either the growth of economy nor the growth of population, and he demonstrated that the creation of public debt depresses savings in a growing economy.
  • in 1976 was criticised by James M. Buchanan in "Barro on the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem", in the Journal of Political Economy (Vol. 84, No. 2. , pp. 337-342) for:
  1. having neglected to compare the differential impacts of taxation and debt issue;
  2. having "superimposed" an issue of public debt without offsetting or compensating changes;
  3. having considered the "helicopter drop" to currently old households and the sale of bonds on a competitive capital market, with the proceeds of this sale used to effect a lump-sum transfer to generation 1 households as wrongly equivalent;
  4. having missed to provide empirical evidence about the full discount of future taxes;
  5. not having considered that, under his hypothesis, there should be roughly indifferent public reactions to a fully funded and to an unfunded pension system;
  6. not having considered the political consequences of the equivalence.
  • The theoretical part of The 1979 "On the Determination of the Public Debt" in the Journal tof Political Economy (Vol. 87, No. 5. , pp. 940-971) is obviously cribbed by The "Burden of the Debt and the National Income" by Domar in The American Economic Review, Vol. 34, No. 4. (Dec., 1944), pp. 798-827, who Barro did not quote in his References.
  • the hypothesis that a Government acts over an infinite period of time is clearly at odds with reality, where usually Governments are very short-lived, due to Constitution rules.
  • in 1976 "Perceived Wealth in Bonds and Social Security and the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem: Reply to Feldstein and Buchanan" (The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 84, No. 2., pp. 343-350.) Barro recognized that uncertainty may play a role in changing individual behavior, but, nevertheless, he argued that "it is much less clear that this complication would imply systematic errors in a direction such that public debt issue raises aggregate demand" (page 346). Barro's position is one which denies the existence of a fiscal illusion as stated by Ricardo, who argued that the taxpayer would underestimate his future tax liabilities, and thus makes a systematic error.

[edit] See also

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