User:R perry(M)
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[edit] Ideas
"almost all consequential events in history come from the unexpected"
availability heuristic
Misleading vividness
Perfect solution fallacy
deal or no deal
Pascal's Wager (and its criticisms), Analysis paralysis
Counterfactual history
The Paradox of Choice
Hindsight bias
Unknown unknown
Cognitive bias
problem with induction
"justification for belief that the sun will rise tomorrow, not justification for the fact that it will, which is the crux of the philosophical problem"
from my point of view, the number of different philosophical explanations for uncertainty and how to deal with it are commonly caused by lapses in accurate definitions that imply more agreement is possible with greater effort being taken on communication rather that the choosing the easy way out of 'personal opinion'
Tis a common observation, that the mind has a great propensity to spread itself on external objects, and to conjoin with them any internal impressions, which they occasion, and which always make their appearance at the same time that these objects discover themselves to the senses. (Hume, Treatise of Human Nature, I. iii. XIV)
Projectivism
"In short: when we believe we have observed a causal connection all we have really experienced is a conjunction between two separate events. We can only know about the world through experience, so causation as a feature of the world is something unknowable to a human being."
"What does it mean to say that the probability that a coin lands heads is ½? One might think that the coin will either land upward or it will not, the probability is not a feature of the world, but rather just a measure of our own ignorance."
