Quantification of margins and uncertainties

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Quantification of margins and uncertainties (QMU) is a mathematical formalism developed within the U.S. nuclear weapons establishment to evaluate the designer's confidence that nuclear weapons, if used, will perform adequately. This formalism is a part of the process of nuclear weapon certification, a step following the design but preceding the deployment of the new Reliable Replacement Warhead.

Defined by Sharp and Wood-Schultz as "a framework that captures what we do and do not know about the performance of a nuclear weapon in a way that can be used to address risk and risk mitigation,"[1], the precise meaning and scope of the term was reportedly unclear at the time of a later JASON study.[2] A Sandia report describes QMU as a "decision-support methodology for complex technical decisions centering on performance thresholds and associated margins for engineered systems that are made under conditions of uncertainty."[3]

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[edit] References

  1. ^ David H. Sharp and Merri M. Wood-Schultz (2003). "QMU and Nuclear Weapons Certification—What’s under the Hood?". Los Alamos Science 28: 47-53. 
  2. ^ D. Eardley et al. (2005-03-25). Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties. JASON - The Mitre Corporation.
  3. ^ Martin Pilch, Timothy G.Trucano, and Jon C. Helton (September 2006). Ideas Underlying Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU): A white paper. Sandia National Laboratories report SAND2006-5001.