Talk:Problem of induction

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[edit] 2003 comments

This sort of nonsense is not helpful in this article:

"Induction regarding the laws of nature is justified in practice by the fact that we would cease to exist if they change significantly. In addition, to a great extent they are based on a few symmetries, each of which can be broken only once."

If you don't have a background in philosophy, particularly epistemology or the philosophy of science, please do not waste other wikipedians time by posting sophmoric crap like the material above in a technical article like this one. It is hard enough for a well-versed philosopher to write a good article on this topic. B 02:37, 22 Oct 2003 (UTC)

Do we need this page? I suggest it be re-directed to inductive reasoning. It adds no content that is not better explained in the longer article. The stuff on Nelson Goodman is useless until someone writes an article on him worth linking to. Banno 08:35, 24 Oct 2003 (UTC)

Banno, there is much more to be written on this article as well as on the related inductive reasoning article. The article on inductive reasoning should briefly refer to the problem of induction, but the problem of induction should not be confused with inductive reasoning itself. Both terms, "problem of induction" and "inductive reasoning", are also fixed phrases for their distinct issues, and folks who are looking for info on one would be surprised to find it tucked in under the heading of another and have to wade thru the article to get info on the subject matter they are looking for. We don't merge articles on wikipedia just because they are stubs... —B 13:56, Oct 24, 2003 (UTC)

Thanks, B. I see your point. But you will have to help me here. What content will be included in this article that would not be appropriate in the other? A quick look will show that the inductive reasoning article is, as it should be, a discussion of the problem of induction. In what way do you see the problem of induction as being a "distinct issue" apart from the justification of inductive reasoning?Banno 19:11, 24 Oct 2003 (UTC)

Hey, Banno. Inductive reasoning isn't a discusion of the problem of induction. Otherwise it would need to be retitled from "inductive reasoning" to the "problem of inductive reasoning". It is or should be an article on: what inductive reasoning is (or as some call it, "inductive logic"). Along with its encyclopediac definition, it would include examples of it (written in formal logic, not just plain english); how it is or isn't used in science or philosophy; who recognized it; how it differs from deductive logic and whatever else I cant think of at the moment. It should make a brief reference to the justification of inductive reasoning with a link to the article that discusses the "problem of [justifying] induct[ive reasoning]" usually referred to as the problem of induction. —B 20:10, Oct 24, 2003 (UTC)

I still can't see a clear difference; Unless there is a loud protest, I'll move the stuff from inductive reasoning to here in a few days. Banno 10:36, 7 Dec 2003 (UTC)

I'm sorry if you can't distinguish Inductive reasoning and the problem of induction: one obviously is an article on what induction is and the other is an article on the philosophical problem of induction. Don't merge them or I will revert. What is inane, however, is your recent creation of the hypothetico-deductive method article as if that material is supposed to differ somehow from what should be in the article on deductive reasoning. What you need to do is move the material from the hypothetico-deductive method with a redirect and merge it into the article on deductive reasoning. B 16:59, Dec 7, 2003 (UTC)

All of what you describe would be equally at home in problem of induction. But I have no intention of getting into an rv. war with someone who thinks hypothetico-deductive method is the same as deductive reasoning. Thanks for demonstrating such an open and cooperative attitude.Banno 19:58, 7 Dec 2003 (UTC)

I erred regarding my comment on hypothetico-deductive method. It does deserve its own article separate from deduction. My apologies. B 05:33, Dec 8, 2003 (UTC)

No problem. Thanks. Banno 10:43, 8 Dec 2003 (UTC)

Look at me change my mind and compromise some more: go ahead and merge problem of induction into induction if you please. I think it is possible that the material under the problem of induction may eventually become too large and unwieldy in the induction article and will need to be spun off into an article of its own again. However, after some more thought and given the practices on other wikipedia articles, I no longer object at this point. B 21:51, Dec 8, 2003 (UTC)

Note that I have moved Inductive reasoning to Induction where it should be. B 21:51, Dec 8, 2003 (UTC)

I think the rock-toe example recently added (by BoNoMoJo I believe) should be deleted. It really adds nothing and just clutters the definition. If the example is worth including, it should be placed after the definition. Fairandbalanced 00:15, 6 Dec 2003 (UTC)

Pay attention Fairandbalanced or figure out how to use wikipedia better...then you don't have to speculate who made the changes. Ww made the changes, not me. B 03:56, Dec 7, 2003 (UTC)

The material on falsificationism is not particularly relevant here, namely:

Sir Karl Popper bypassed the 'problem' by noting that science actually does not rely on induction, but developed the notion of falsification as a way around the problem of induction, actually testing possible hypotheseses by experiment. Popper replaced induction with deduction, making modus tollens the centrepiece of his theory. On this account, when assessing a theory one should pay greater heed to data which is in disagreement with the theory than to data which is in agreement with it. Popper went further and stated that an hypothesis which does not allow of such experimental text is outside the bounds of science. This was his doctrine of falsificationism.

Popper's work on falsificationism was not directed at the problem of induction; falsificationism was more of response to the logical positivists' verificationism or confirmationism. B 02:12, Dec 8, 2003 (UTC)

See my comments in talk:falsifiability on this issue. Popper clearly intended his theory to be a solution to the problem of induction, and says so. Nevertheless, I will re-work the paragraph. Banno 09:07, 8 Dec 2003 (UTC)

Can anyone adjust the Problem of Induction Page? I accidently lost a line at the bottom of the summary while attempting to edit. Any help?


[edit] Popper

Karl Popper did in fact claim to have resolved the problem of induction through his deductive approach to science, but I think that as the paragraph appears in the article at the current moment, it is biased toward proponents of Popper's insistence on his having done away with induction. The debate as it actually stands is not so definitively in favor of Popper. Many of his critics have pointed out that induction is implicit in his method of deduction as the falsification of a theory is itself a scientific claim, and as such, for a falsification to be so incontrovertibly accepted as Popper believed it should, it would have to rely on induction since induction would necessarily be the manner of logical inference used to demonstrate the universality of a theory about another theory having been falsified. Batman Jr. 03:52, 10 October 2005 (UTC)


I need some help here. Has Salmon's criticism of Popper been addressed? I need more info so I can make up my mind as to where my own world view lies. If someone has any comments that go beyond something fitting to this article, contact me directly at EimacDude_at_aol_dot_com

ThVa 11:26, 18 Dec 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Stove

I'm thinking David Stove should be mentioned here, because he marshals arguments against Hume, Popper, and Goodman, all of whom are mentioned in this article. I wish I were able to present his views myself, but his technical writing is beyond me. Two complete topical works of his are available online: [Popper and After: Four Modern Irrationalists http://www.geocities.com/ResearchTriangle/Facility/4118/dcs/popper/popper.html], and [Probability and Hume's Inductive Scepticism http://www.geocities.com/ResearchTriangle/Facility/4118/dcs/hume/hume.html].

I think that this should be included in the main article as a critique of Popper. Wesley Salmon argues this point very well. The problem with Hempel is that he agrees that falsification says nothing about what is true, just what is not. Corroboration is not confirmation. But what grounds do we have then to trust a corroborated theory over a none corroborated theory? If one uses a corroborated theory to act on he/she is still guilty of induction. Reesebw (talk) 05:27, 19 November 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Bayesian inference

The following submission was recently placed by ananymous IP user at the head end of page, and I have moved it into normal positioning on the page...Kenosis 03:02, 23 April 2006 (UTC)

Hi all, where's Bayesian inference? It was my (limited) understanding that many philosophers appeal to Bayes to explain why they hold belief that the sun will rise tomorrow. No matter what the initial a priori probability is that the sun will rise, the a posteriori probability eventually converges to 1 after many many dawns. Bayes is referenced and discussed in inductive reasoning. Is there an expert that can help, or tell me that I'm all wet? Thanks.--63.138.93.195 02:25, 23 April 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Inductive Reasoning v Problem of Induction

From the discussion above, and from the reverts that have been occurring, I think we need to be clear on the distinction between Induction and "the problem of induction". So: the "problem" is determining whether or not inductive reasoning can be logically justified.

A good introduction can be found here[1].

If you think this is inaccurate Nox (bot?), please use the discussion page before editing so boldly.

--Gdickeson 14:52, 24 October 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Removed original research (Kevin Kirchman notable?)

I removed some material posted by User:Kalexander which seems to be based on his own original research (see the link that had been inserted at the end of the removed section). From what I can tell, this doesn't seem to be an established approach to the problem of induction. flowersofnight (talk) 15:36, 26 March 2007 (UTC)

It has been re-insertered with a link to "Kevin Kirchman", who is not particularly notable. Not in the company of Popper and Goodman, anyway.1Z 15:09, 29 March 2007 (UTC)

It doesn't even appear to deal with the problem of induction at all (as stated by Hume, et al. -- viz., whether inductive inference is a doxastically and propositionally justifiable form of discursion); it rather seems to address, very basically, the possibility of induction and the mechanism by which the mind makes inductive inferences. I'm not aware of any philosophers doubting the possibility or logistics of induction (Hume said on the contrary that he is certain we do make inductive inferences). So I don't see how this section is relevant to the article at all, notability notwithstanding. » MonkeeSage « 17:47, 28 April 2007 (UTC)
It seems to be int he Randian tradition , and Randians do tend to assume that you can solve problems by giving an account of psychological mechanisms. 1Z 21:20, 28 April 2007 (UTC)
Hmmm, I'm not sure about that...as I read Rand, her Objectivism is a form of Realism, which bases justification (at least propositional justification) on reasons, not causes. For example, we may be able to fully describe the psychology, process and context of belief that hens lay eggs because they are possessed by evil spirits, and this can perhaps supply doxastic/personal justification for the belief, but I don't think Randians would argue that it can supply propositional justification for the content of the belief. And as I read Hume and Russell on the problem of induction, that is the crux of the matter: whether our personal beliefs about induction can be propositionally justified -- whether our beliefs can be objectively proven to match the way things really are. So even if we can prove the possibility of induction and describe its logistics, or even provide doxastic justification, this doesn't do anything to solve the main problem of induction as described by Hume and Russell. » MonkeeSage « 10:02, 30 April 2007 (UTC)
So, is it the case that, on the basis of notability guidelines and standards of relevance, this section should go? » MonkeeSage « 04:26, 4 May 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Cut material

[edit] Kevin Kirchman

To induce facts from the past is part of what we mean when we talk about "reason" (we also are refering to deduction, a distinct mental process). It's meaningless to discuss whether we should "reasonably" trust induction: induction is part of what reason is all about.

The Problem of Induction is fundamentally about 'ideas', and whether or not they are rational. Aristotle established the concept of inductive reasoning, which is really a misnomer, and is one cause for the misunderstanding of the nature of inductive processes.

Concepts are formed by particular mental methods of behaviour. Concept formation is the basic process of forming all ideas, or identifying symbolic representations that have universal applicability.

The discovery of concepts that have universal applicability is not, therefore, a rational process per se. Validating that the concepts are universals, however, is rational, as deduction from concepts is used in the process of scientific validation. One can assert a universal (an inductive concept) by simply asserting a broad spatial or temporal scope of a simple descriptive concept, such as 'this dog has four legs'. By modifying the statement, it is possible to create an inductive concept, which may or may not be valid universally.

If we say 'all dogs have four legs', we have asserted an inductive concept. It remains to be seen

[vague] whether this concept is valid or not--whether any particular referents of the concept contradict the assertion, for instance, a dog born with three legs. When Karl Popper discussed falsification of theory, he was referring to the identification of evidence which contradicted inductive abstractions.

Returning to the Problem of Induction, asking whether or not it is rational to assert inductive concepts is really too broad a question. The real issue is can we identify some concepts which have been asserted that do have universal validity. If we can, then we should ask more specifically is there a class of concepts which can have universal validity, and what is the nature of that class of concepts.[1]

Aristotle established the concept of inductive reasoning, which is really a misnomer

Because? You previously said induction was part of reason.

The Problem of Induction is fundamentally about 'ideas', and whether or not they are rational.

You previously said reasoning was a process.

Concept formation is the basic process of forming all ideas, or identifying symbolic representations that have universal applicability.

Why universal? Why not just more general than particular?

The discovery of concepts that have universal applicability is not, therefore, a rational process per se.

You previously said induction was part of "reason".

When Karl Popper discussed falsification of theory, he was referring to the identification of evidence which contradicted inductive abstractions.

In a context where there is a differece between propositions and concepts.

If we say 'all dogs have four legs', we have asserted an inductive concept.

Inductrve proposition.

Returning to the Problem of Induction, asking whether or not it is rational to assert inductive concepts is really too broad a question. The real issue is can we identify some concepts which have been asserted that do have universal validity.

That's easy We just have to examine the entire universe...

If we can, then we should ask more specifically is there a class of concepts which can have universal validity, and what is the nature of that class of concepts.

Ask? Do you have the answer or not? 1Z 22:13, 19 June 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Statements of the problem

Francis Bacon, Isaac Newton, and numerous others up until at least the late 19th century have considered inductive reasoning the basis of scientific method—indeed inductive reasoning is used today, though in a more balanced interaction with deductive reasoning and abductive reasoning.

Of course inductive reasoning is still used today. Even if this gets phrased better, it is unsourced and would belong in inductive reasoning, not here. –Pomte 12:44, 27 December 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Goodman

Seems very complex- a triffle clearer please? Larklight (talk) 21:47, 13 February 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Added Ancient Origins section

I added the section on Sextus and Weintraub. ImperfectlyInformed (talk) 07:34, 19 April 2008 (UTC)

[edit] different from/different than

'Different than' is Standard in English. Admittedly, maybe it's not quite as accepted among grammarians as 'different from' -- however, it sounds better. ImperfectlyInformed | {talk - contribs} 17:15, 6 May 2008 (UTC)

That link observes, "Different than has been much criticized by commentators" and concludes, "best advice for Formal and Oratorical levels: stick with different from." "Different than" is rarely used in writing. The List of English words with disputed usage says "different from" is undisputed while "different than" is disputed. Why switch from an undisputed usage to a disputed one? More to the point, "different to" 'sounds better' to some of us -- that doesn't seem like a good basis for deciding. ThisIsMyWikipediaName (talk) 18:17, 6 May 2008 (UTC)