Talk:Prediction

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Contents

[edit] Deleting or fixing?

Wow, this article is crap. I can't see it ever containing anything useful. Anyone mind if I nominate it for deletion? --P3d0 02:53, Dec 15, 2004 (UTC)

It would be well suited for an entry on the Scientific Method, prediction is a bit of a stretch and perhaps a bit misleading. --johnycanal 03:58, Feb 15, 2005 (UTC)
I don't agree. I'm trying to fix the article, but it will take a lot of work. In particular, I don't like the "future topics" section. Much of that should be integrated into the article. --Pablo D. Flores 14:17, 27 Apr 2005 (UTC)

It could use fixing, but come on, who actually has the patience to read "predictions"? -J.H.

Please also consider adding some external links: http://www.longbets.org http://www.zapfuture.com http://www.icalledit.com/forums

[edit] Cleaning up the mess (list of topics)

I'm moving these sections here. The main issues should be integrated into a few short well-wikified paragraphs, maybe following a timeline. {{mainarticle}} should be used for the larger sections. Whatever doesn't fit in running text should be put into a "See also" or "Related" made entirely of relevant links, and containing no more than 8-10 entries if possible. --Pablo D. Flores 14:38, 27 Apr 2005 (UTC)

[edit] Future topics

'Predictions' is a very broad topic. For it to be a credible page, it can be divided better. If someone can use a mind-map to make some sort of outline that would make this page valuable to everyone. For example: Credibility -> Verifiability VS Falsifiability Links Links, etc.. Educated Guess VS Intangible Unprovable Evidence (Even if future) and possibility VS (Pessimism Vs Optimism vs Pygmalion Effect) VS Useful Construct etc.. Also, you can have titles such as 'Predictions In Business' or 'Predictions In Everyday Life(Common Sense, Estimation)' or 'Predictions In Superstition/Insanity/Depression & Pessimism' (Omen, possibly Mechanistic Universe, possibly Ying/Yang) etc.. 218.186.8.12 19:59, 11 December 2006 (UTC)P. J. Claudio

[edit] Related topics

[edit] What about statistical forecasting?

I think it is a big mistake to redirect "Forecasting" to "Prediction". I was hoping to find an article about statistical forecasting which would have inclduded details about many time-series quantitative statistical techniques including exponential-smoothing, ARMA, and the many many more. It was a big disapointment to be re-directed to this article - it is like re-directing enquires about "Astronomy" to an article about "Astrology"!

I have written some more comments about this here - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category_talk:Statistics

It is, by the way, more correct to refer to "statistical forecasting" than "statistical prediction" since all the textbooks about this topic that I have seen use the word forecasting in the title rather than the word prediction.

Thanks

fred2

I have applied your suggestions in Forecasting. Also see Predictive analytics
Apdevries 15:19, 2 September 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Unnecessary and distracting page

I agree with the previous correspondent: why is there a page on "prediction" as well as one on "forecasting". This page should be removed or, failing that, links should go from prediction to forecasting but not the other way around. --Kesten 01:07, 16 November 2006 (UTC)

Prediction is just a guess about the future; forecasting, however, uses a more scientific method to arrive at its results. Think outside the box 11:26, 2 March 2007 (UTC)
The term prediction is ok in a religious context. In science the relevant term is forecast. Everything on science should be removed from this article. Gabriel Kielland 16:23, 2 March 2007 (UTC)
Disagree. Forecasts are a branch of the whole concept of predictions. Only, they're made with the help of models, computers or scientific data. But it remains that time is the only way to learn whether they are right or wrong. --Childhood's End 16:54, 2 March 2007 (UTC)