Presumptive nominee

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The presumptive nominee, in the politics of the United States, is the candidate who has not yet received the official nomination of their political party at the party's nominating convention, but who is the undisputed front-runner and is widely, or even unanimously, presumed to be the candidate that party will nominate. The term is applied widely on the national level, notably in regard to the U.S. presidential nominating conventions and the statewide level.

A candidate may be considered a presumptive nominee after all other major competitors have dropped out and it is considered unlikely that the candidate will withdraw, be usurped, or be otherwise removed from the race. Alternatively, in presidential elections, a candidate may be deemed the presumptive nominee after having accumulated enough delegate commitments through the primary elections and caucuses to be assured of the eventual nomination at the convention.

In the U.S. presidential elections, the selection of delegates has been increasingly shifted earlier in the process to produce a presumptive nominee as early as possible, even in the presence of many strong candidates. The rise of Super Tuesday in the 1980s has led to the emergence of a presumptive nominee in both major parties by early March in all recent elections with the exception of 2008, when Democratic candidate Barack Obama did not secure enough delegates to become the presumptive nominee until early June. Al Gore and George W. Bush were the presumptive nominees of their respective parties after Super Tuesday in 2000,^[1] and John Kerry was the presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party in 2004.^[2]

A sitting President of the United States who is running for re-election will often be the presumptive nominee from the start of the nominating process: recent examples include Ronald Reagan in 1984, Bill Clinton in 1996, and George W. Bush in 2004. However, a strong challenger can negate that status: examples in recent history include President Gerald Ford, who faced a challenge from Reagan in 1976 and President Jimmy Carter, challenged by Ted Kennedy in 1980.

Barack Obama^[3] and John McCain^[4] are the presumptive nominees for their respective parties in the 2008 United States presidential election. Obama and McCain are expected to be formally nominated at their respective national conventions.