Prediction theory of law

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The prediction theory of law was a key component of the Oliver Wendell Holmes' jurisprudential philosophy. At its most basic, the theory is a refutation of most previous definitions of the law. Holmes believed that the law should be defined as a prediction, most specifically, a prediction of how the courts behave. His rationale was based on an argument regarding the opinion of a "bad man." Bad men, Holmes argued in his paper The Path of the Law, care little for ethics or lofty conceptions of natural law; instead they care simply about staying out of jail and avoiding paying damages. In Holmes's mind, therefore, it was most useful to define "the law" as a prediction of what will bring punishment or other consequences from a court.

The theory played a key role in influencing American Legal Realism.

Prediction theories of law fell in discredit after H. L. A. Hart, in his The Concept of Law (1961), argued that they were blind to the internal point of view of law, that that is taken by judges and law abiding citizens.

[edit] See also

• Judicial activism
• Pragmatism