Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2010

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The Pennsylvania gubernatorial election of 2010 will be held on November 2, 2010, and will include the races for the Governor of Pennsylvania and Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania. The winning candidates will serve a four year term from 2011 to 2015.

The incumbent Governor, Ed Rendell (D), will be prohibited from seeking a third term under Pennsylvania's existing term limit laws (state law limits Pennsylvania governors to two consecutive 4-year terms). Catherine Baker Knoll (D), the current Lieutenant Governor, will be 80 years old at the time of the election and it is considered unlikely that she will challenge for the state's top post. This opens the possibility of wide open primaries in both major political parties.

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[edit] Political trends

Pennsylvania is considered a swing state in which neither political party dominates. Although the state has voted Democratic for 8 of the past 12 presidential elections, its Congressional delegation has been majority Republican for most of the late 20th and first years of the 21st century and Republicans have controlled the state legislature for much of that time.

The 2006 election saw Bob Casey, Jr. as the first Democrat elected to a full term in the U.S. Senate since Joseph S. Clark narrowly won reelection in 1962. Also in the 2006 election, the Republican Party retained control of the Pennsylvania State Senate (29 Republican seats and 21 Democrat seats). The Democratic Party won control of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives from the Republicans by a single seat majority (102 to 101) in 2006; however due to political infighting among Democratic legislators, a moderate Republican was elected Speaker of the House.

In the 2000 Presidential election, former Vice President Al Gore won the state 51%-47% over then-Texas Governor George W. Bush. In 2004, in an even closer election, Senator John Kerry carried the state 51%-49% over Bush. The state has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since choosing George H.W. Bush over Michael Dukakis 51%-48% in 1988.

The counties of Philadelphia and Allegheny are Democratic strongholds (Philadelphia: 75% Democrat, Allegheny: 60% Democrat), while the central and northern parts of the state, collectively referred to as the "the T," are generally conservative and vote Republican.

The populous counties of the Philadelphia suburbs; Chester, Montgomery, Delaware, and Bucks have been traditionally Republican strongholds. In the past several elections however, many of these suburban areas have been trending more Democratic.

The statewide party registration as of 2006 is:[1]

Party Count Share
Democratic 3,900,685 47.7%
Republican 3,300,894 40.3%
Other 981,297 12.0%

[edit] Potential candidates

No one has formally declared their candidacy for governor, and the list of potential candidates is highly speculative at this point; however, several names have begun to surface among political pundits and writers: [2]

[edit] Democrats

    • Josh Shapiro - a young legislator from Montgomery County. Headed the bi-partisan movement to delegate fellow Philadelphia area Rep. Dennis M. O'Brien as Speaker and is currently Deputy Speaker and a Chair of the Committee on Reform. Former Chief of Staff to Rep. Joe Hoeffel, Montgomery County.[citation needed]
    • Tom Knox - Philadelphia businessman and Philadelphia Mayoral candidate (2nd place in primary) [3]
    • Catherine Baker Knoll - Current Lt. Governor is veteran of several successful state-wide races, has high name ID, might become Governor if Ed Rendell leaves office to take position in a possible Democratic White House in 2008.[4]

[edit] Republican

    • Pat Meehan - Current U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania. A former counselor of both Senator Arlen Specter and Senator Rick Santorum, Meehan has been an active and visible U.S. Attorney in Philadelphia. He is well known in eastern Pennsylvania as being tough on crime and health care fraud. He and his office have successfully prosecuted several high profile Philadelphia city officials for corruption.
    • Dennis M. O'Brien - Current Speaker of the State House Speaker O'Brien is considered a strong candidate for the State's top post. His reform of the State House and ouster of the powerful John Perzel put him in the good graces of many displeased with the direction of the Republican Party. His compassionate record, fighting for those with Autism and other health care related issues make him a popular choice of Democrats as well.
    • John M. Perzel - Former Speaker of the State House (2003-2007) and power player in Pennsylvania GOP politics. Perzel lost the speakership in January of 2007 after Democrats gained control of the chamber.
    • Rick Santorum - Although the former U.S. Senator has made no statements concerning the 2010 election, well known Pennsylvania political analyst Charlie Gerow has stated, "Like him or not, he's a very talented guy. If he runs for governor, he'd be formidable."
    • Bill Scranton - the former Lt. Governor, 1986 gubinatorial nominee, and son of Governor William W. Scranton briefly ran for Governor in 2006 and is believed to still harbor political aspirations.
    • Lynn Swann - Thomas Baldino, a political science professor at Wilkes College has stated, "I think he's established some credibility as a candidate with the public and Republican Party leaders. He will have earned at least some consideration for another go" [2]. However in April 2007 Swann announced that he was "collecting information" concerning a run for Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district in 2008 [3] indicating that he may no longer be interested in the governorship.
    • Pat Toomey - Former U.S. Congressman who unsuccessfully challenged Senator Arlen Specter in the primary election in 2004.

[edit] References

  1. ^ 2006 General Election
  2. ^ Political pundits already pondering the next governor race
  3. ^ [1]
  4. ^ Gov. Knoll? - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review