Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district election, 2006
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The Pennsylvania 6th congressional district election, 2006 was an election for the United States House of Representatives that took place on November 7, 2006 between 2-term incumbent Republican Jim Gerlach and his Democratic opponent Lois Murphy.
Gerlach won by 3,000 votes, a winning margin of 1.2%.
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[edit] Candidates
[edit] Republican incumbent
Gerlach first ran for U.S. Congress in 2002 in Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district for an open seat against Democrat Dan Wofford, in a district gerrymandered for Gerlach to win.[1][2] Gerlach won a close, hard-fought campaign, 51.4% to 48.6%. In 2004, Lois Murphy, a lawyer and former head of Ed Rendell's Montgomery County campaign for Governor, challenged Gerlach. The result was even closer than in 2002 — Gerlach won with 51.0% to 49.0% for Murphy.
[edit] Democratic challenger
The Democratic challenger in 2006 was again Lois Murphy, who beat developer Mike Leibowitz in the primary, getting 73% of the votes.[3]
[edit] General campaign
Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district, covering parts of four counties in the western suburbs and further northwest of Philadelphia, was one of the districts where though John Kerry outpolled Bush in the 2004 election, nevertheless elected a Republican to the House. As such, and due to Gerlach's thin margins of victory, it became the target of Democratic strategists.
Gerlach had the normal advantages of incumbency, such as franking, PAC donations, and so forth. Gerlach had avoided receiving some typical attacks on Republicans by supporting embryonic Stem cell research. He has a stronger environmental record than many Republican members of Congress, with a lifetime 56% score from League of Conservation Voters and 54% from Defenders of Wildlife.[4] Gerlach won by 3,000 votes, a winning margin of 1.2%.
[edit] Debates
On October 21, Gerlach and Murphy had a debate in Malvern sponsored by AARP, attended by about 180 people. The debate was civil, and primarily covered issues of Social Security, healthcare, Iraq, and taxes.[5][6][7]
On October 27, they taped a debate that aired October 29 on WPVI. Iraq was a primary issue in the debate, which continued after the taped portion ended. Other primary topics included Medicare prescription drug benefits, taxes, and security.[8]
[edit] Major endorsements
This does not include general organizational, union or personal endorsements; for those see the candidates' websites.
[edit] Polls and non-partisan election analyses
[edit] Analysis
CQPolitics.com, an independent, non-partisan election analysis newsletter, rates the race the highly competitive "No Clear Favorite."
The non-partisan Cook Political Report rates the race "Republican Toss Up"[9]
Larry Sabato's Center for Politics rated this as one of the top fifty most competitive House races in the nation, and was the first one he predicted a turnover in. His current rating is "Leaning Democratic".[10]
[edit] Polls
| Source | Date | Murphy (D) | Gerlach (R) | Error % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election unofficial |
November 7, 2006 | 49.4% | 50.6% | ± 0% |
| Zogby[1] | October 29, 2006 | 49% | 44% | ± 4.5% |
| Majority Watch[2] Detailed crosstabs |
October 26, 2006 | 51% | 46% | ± 3.1% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang[3] (Democratic) |
October 23, 2006 | 47% | 44% | ± 5% |
| Majority Watch[4] | October 10, 2006 | 52% | 46% | ± 3.1% |
| Zogby | October 2, 2006 | 43% | 41% | ± 4.5% |
| Keystone Poll[5] | September 25, 2006 | 41% | 44% | ± 5.2% |
| Public Opinion Strategies[6] (Republican) |
September 14, 2006 | 36% | 47% | ± 4.9% |
| Majority Watch[7] | August 29, 2006 | 50% | 45% | ± 3.1% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang[8] (Democratic) |
July 29, 2006 | 42% | 41% | ± 4.1% |
Majority Watch is a non-partisan poll from RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics. Their polling is done by automated surveys of likely voters; typically 1000 respondents which gives a margin of error of about 3%.
Note that partisan polling companies on both sides typically produce results weighted in favor of their candidate.[11]
[edit] Fundraising
As of September 30, 2006, Gerlach had raised $2.9 million compared to Murphy's $2.8 million, and had $1.2 million cash on hand versus Murphy's $900,000. The NRCC spent $1.6 million in support of Gerlach.
As of October 18, the last report before the election from OpenSecrets.org[12] showed Murphy had raised slightly more money than Gerlach ($3.4 million vs $3.1 million), and had outraised Gerlach significantly since September 30. Slightly over half of Gerlach's money came from PACs, while less than 1/6th of Murphy's did. (Incumbents of both parties usually get more money from PACs; the average is about 42%.)[13]
In his three congressional campaigns Gerlach has received $30,000 in contributions from former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay's political action committee ARMPAC, now disbanded. Following DeLay's indictment on money-laundering charges, Murphy and other Democrats have criticized Gerlach for not returning the contributions or donating them to charity. [14] Gerlach has stated that he would return the contributions if DeLay was convicted of the crimes for which he was indicted. [15]
[edit] Party and outside organization expenditures
Data from PoliticalMoneyLine on independent expenditures reported from September 1 to November 6: [16]
| Source | Amount | For |
|---|---|---|
| NRCC | $3,869,216 | For Gerlach/Against Murphy |
| National Right To Life | $24,401 | For Gerlach/Against Murphy |
| DCCC | $3,007,531 | For Murphy/Against Gerlach |
| Emily's List | $166,007 | For Murphy/Against Gerlach |
| SEIU COPE | $27,099 | For Murphy/Against Gerlach |
[edit] Results
As of 9:30am on November 8, Gerlach led Murphy 51% to 49% (a 3,001-vote difference) with 100% reporting.[17] All precincts have reported; provisional and absentee votes have yet to be counted, but Lois Murphy has conceded the race as those votes are unlikely to change the result.[18]
Unofficial
Lois Murphy - 115,806 votes - 49.4%
Jim Gerlach - 118,807 votes - 50.6%
[edit] See also
[edit] References
- ^ PA-6 Campaign 2004 USAToday.com, accessed October 18, 2006
- ^ Eichel, Larry. GOP Redistricting Gamble Looks Safe. Philadelphia Inquirer. October 16, 2002. Accessed December 30, 2005
- ^ Greg Giroux, "http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/05/pa_house_murphys_easily_win_pr.html", CQPolitics.com, May 17, 2006
- ^ http://www.lcv.org/images/client/pdfs/LCV_2006_Scorecard_final.pdf
- ^ Philadelphia Inquirer, Civilly, Gerlach and Murphy go over differences by Nancy Petersen, October 22, 2006
- ^ Daily Local, Gerlach and Murphy debate a range of issues, October 22, 2006 by Brian Fanelli, accessed October 23, 2006
- ^ Associated Press, Gerlach, Murphy spar over war, taxes, health care in Pa. debate
- ^ R. Jonathan Tuleya, Murphy, Gerlach clash over Iraq, October 28, 2006; accessed October 29, 2006
- ^ The Cook Political Report
- ^ Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball, Pennsylvania, 6th District
- ^ Polling FAQ
- ^ Congressional Races
- ^ CRP Incumbent Profile: Christopher S. Bond
- ^ http://www.ourfuture.org/issues_and_campaigns/accountablecongress/delay/money9.cfm
- ^ http://www.mainlinelife.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=15719007&BRD=1597&PAG=461&dept_id=188818&rfi=8
- ^ Political Money Line - 9/1-11/6 (warning: very large)
- ^ CNN PA-6 results accessed 9:30am November 8, 2006
- ^ Lois Murphy's concession message
[edit] External links
- Murphy Campaign 2006 Website
- Gerlach Campaign 2006 Website
- Gerlach's Official House website
- Eichel, Larry. GOP Redistricting Gamble Looks Safe. Philadelphia Inquirer. October 16, 2002. Accessed December 30, 2005.
- PA-6 2006 Fundraising Summary
