Peak coal

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Further information: Coal depletion and Hubbert peak theory

Peak coal is the point in time at which the maximum global coal production rate is reached, after which the rate of production enters its terminal decline. Coal is a fossil fuel formed from plant matter over the course of millions of years. It is a finite resource and thus consider to be a non-renewable energy source although coal has been mined continuously for 800 years.

The concept of peak coal follows from M. King Hubbert's Hubbert peak theory, which is most commonly associated with Peak oil. Hubbert saw oil as a resource which would soon run out, but believed Uranium had much more promise as an energy source.[1]

Hubbert noted that United States coal production grew logarithmically at a steady 6.6% per year from 1850 to 1910. Then the growth leveled off. He concluded that no finite resource could sustain exponential growth. At some point, the rate of production would have to peak and then begin to decline until the resource was exhausted. For coal, this peak occurred in 1914. The plot of the production rate over time produces a bell-shaped curve. Although coal production came close to peaking a second time in the 1940's, the production rate of coal has never again reached the 1914 level. Projections from the world production curve places world peak coal at 2150. Hubbert used his observation of the US coal peak to predict the behavior of peak oil.

Contents

[edit] Peak coal for individual nations

[edit] United Kingdom

Coal output peaked in 1913 in Britain and mining is now all but finished.[2]

[edit] United States

Anthracite coal, a high grade coal, peaked in 1914.[1]

[edit] World peak coal

Coal: Resources and Future Production[3], published on April 5 2007 by the Energy Watch Group (EWG), which reports to the German Parliament, found that global coal production could peak in as few as 15 years.[4] Reporting on this, Richard Heinberg also notes that the date of peak annual energetic extraction from coal will likely come earlier than the date of peak in quantity of coal (tons per year) extracted as the most energy-dense types of coal have been mined most extensively.[5]

A second study, The Future of Coal by B. Kavalov and S. D. Peteves of the Institute for Energy (IFE), prepared for European Commission Joint Research Centre, reaches similar conclusions and states that ""coal might not be so abundant, widely available and reliable as an energy source in the future".[4]


[edit] See also

[edit] References

  1. ^ a b M. King Hubbert (1956-06). Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels 'Drilling and Production Practice' (English). API. Retrieved on 2008-04-18.
  2. ^ David Strahan (2008-03-05). Lump sums (English). The Guardian. Retrieved on 2008-06-09.
  3. ^ Coal: Resources and Future Production (English). Energy Watch Group (2007-04-05). Retrieved on 2008-06-09.
  4. ^ a b Richard Heinberg (2007-05-21). Peak coal: sooner than you think (English). Energy Bulletin. Retrieved on 2008-06-06.
  5. ^ Richard Heinberg (2007-03). burn the furniture (English). Richard Heinberg. Retrieved on 2008-06-06.

[edit] External references

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