Image:ParadigmShiftsFrr15Events.jpg

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[edit] Summary

When plotted on a logarithmic graph, 15 separate lists of key events in human history show an exponential trend. Lists prepared among others by Carl Sagan, Paul D. Boyer, Encyclopedia Britannica, American Museum of Natural History and University of Arizona, compiled by Ray Kurzweil.

Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and Kurzweil Technologies, Inc.

[edit] Description

Original caption: Fifteen views of evolution. Major paradigm shifts in the history of the world, as seen by fifteen different lists of key events. There is a clear trend of smooth acceleration through biological evolution and then technological evolution.

Created by en:Ray Kurzweil, this graph is based on data compiled by en:Theodore Modis, who "attempted to develop a precise mathematical law that governs the evolution of change and complexity in the Universe". To reduce bias, he compiled thirteen multiple independent lists of major events in the history of biology and technology from the following sources:

1. en:John R. Skoyles, Dorian Sagan, Up From Dragons: The Evolution of Human Intelligence, Ballantine Books, 1989, exact dates provided by Modis.
2. American Museum of Natural History, exact dates provided by Modis.
3. The data set "important events in the history of life" in the en:Encyclopædia Britannica
4. Educational Resources in Astronomy and Planetary Science (University of Arizona) (book reference link is offline but see Internet Archive)
5. en:Paul D. Boyer, biochemist, winner of 1997 Nobel prize, private communications, exact dates provided by Modis.
6. en:J.D. Barrow and en:J. Silk, "The Structure of the Early Universe", en:Scientific American, 242.4 (April 1980):118-28
7. en:Jean Heidmann, Cosmic Odyssey: Observatoire de Paris, trans. Simon Mitton (Cambridge University Press, 1989)
8. en:J. William Schopf, ed., Major Events in the History of Life, symposium, 1991
9. en:Philip Tobias, Major Events in the History of Mankind", chap.7 in Schopf, Major Events in the History of Life'
10. en:David Nielson, Lecture on Molecular Evolution I" (http://drnelson.utmem.edu/evolution.html) and "Lecture Notes for Evolution II" (http://drnelson.utmem.edu/evolution2.html_
11. en:Göran Burenhult, ed. The First Humans: Humans Origins and History to 10,000 BC, HarperSanFrancisco, 1993
12. en:D. Johanson and en:B. Edgar, From Lucy to Language, Siemens & Schuster, 1996
13. en:R. Coren, The Evolutionary Trajectory: The Growth of Information in the History and Furure of Earth, World Futures General Evolution Studies, Gordon and Breach,, 1998

See also:

• T.Modis, Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 69, No 4, 2002
• T.Modis, The Limits of Complexity and Change, "Technological Forecasting and Social Change 69.4 (2002)

[edit] Reference

• Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity Is Near : When Humans Transcend Biology, Viking Adult, 2005, ISBN 0670033847. Graph appears on p.19, description is p.18-20 plus notes on p.501-502.

[edit] Licensing

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Note: moved from en-Wikipedia, where it was first uploaded by me around July 5, 2005. --Piotr Konieczny aka Prokonsul Piotrus ^Talk 13:05, 2 January 2008 (UTC)

• User:Theflyer