Talk:Overconfidence effect
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The human tendency to be more confident in one's behaviours, attributes and physical characteristics than one ought to be.
Assuming "bad" drivers have more of an emotional impact than "good" ones, shouldn't the statistic on driving take into account the Von Restorff effect?
Rāga man 05:07, 28 March 2007 (UTC)
I think the section about depressives being more accurate/less overconfident may be in error. See the link. http://psp.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/24/8/880 Depressive Symptoms and Accuracy in the Prediction of Future Events J. Sidney Shrauger, State University of New York-Buffalo Eric Mariano, State University of New York-Buffalo Todd J. Walter, University of Florida
In two studies, the authors examined the accuracy of dysphoric and nondysphoric individuals' predictions about their future behavior. Participants predicted the occurrence of a variety of everyday events and reported on their occurrence over a period of either 4 (Study 1) or 8 (Study 2) weeks. As expected, dysphoria was unrelated to overall accuracy, but nondysphorics tended to be more accurate in making optimistic predictions and dysphorics tended to be more accurate in making pessimistic predictions. These differences were related to differences between the two dysphoric groups in base rates of reported outcome occurrence and certainty of judgments. The findings did not support depressive realism, the negative biasing effect of dysphoria on future predictions, or the contention that dysphorics are less accurate because they predict either more atypical or overly optimistic outcomes. I'm not a psychologist, but perhaps someone can make a better judgment on this. I happened across the link while looking into depressiona d overconfidence. Kenckar 00:07, 15 September 2007 (UTC)
[edit] Merge with another article?
The bias discussed in this article is precisely the same as is discussed in the article titled Lake Wobegon Effect (and which is known in at least some of the psychology literature as Superiority Bias, which would seem to be a better title for the article. I can't see at present a justification for having the two separate articles. MartinPoulter (talk) 18:07, 11 December 2007 (UTC)
Having thought a bit more, I take this back. Two distinct biases are being discussed. It's just that at present the articles are too similar. One bias, superiority bias or Lake Wobegon Effect, is the propensity for people to see themselves as possessing positive attributes to a greater extent than they actually have. One sense of "Overconfidence" is a bias towards seeing favourable events as more likely and unfavourable events as less likely than they really are. Another more common sense of overconfidence is having miscalibrated judgements of likelihood, for example being "90% certain" of judgements which are in fact true only 60% of the time. This article is a good start on an entry about the first kind of overconfidence, but it cites the Swenson study which demonstrates superiority bias rather than overconfidence. I'll think more, and maybe get back to sort this out. MartinPoulter (talk) 17:44, 12 December 2007 (UTC)
I've had more time to come back to this: WP has three articles about superiority bias/illusory superiority: this article, Lake Wobegon effect and Dunning-Kruger effect. All of these have major flaws as encyclopedia articles. It's potentially very misleading for an encyclopedia to have an article on superiority bias labelled as overconfidence, as in psychology overconfidence is something different, as I describe in previous comments. I will have a day working on WP on Tuesday 27th May: I will try to sort these issues out then.MartinPoulter (talk) 13:08, 24 May 2008 (UTC)
