ORB survey of Iraq War casualties

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

On Friday, September 14, 2007, ORB (Opinion Research Business), an independent polling agency located in London, published estimates of the total war casualties in Iraq since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.^[1] At over 1.2 million deaths (1,220,580), this estimate is the highest number published so far, outnumbering even the death toll of the recent Rwandan genocide.^[2] From the poll margin of error of +/-2.5% ORB calculated a range of 733,158 to 1,446,063 deaths. The ORB estimate was performed by a random survey of 1,720 adults aged 18+, out of which 1,499 responded, in fifteen of the eighteen governorates within Iraq, between August 12 and August 19, 2007.^[3]^[4] In comparison, the 2006 Lancet survey suggested almost half this number (654,965 deaths) through the end of June 2006. The Lancet authors calculated a range of 392,979 to 942,636 deaths.

On 28 January 2008, ORB published an update based on additional work carried out in rural areas of Iraq. Some 600 additional interviews were undertaken and as a result of this the death estimate was revised to 1,033,000 with a given range of 946,000 to 1,120,000.^[5]

ORB reports that it has been "tracking public opinion in Iraq since 2005."^[1]

1 Survey question and results
2 Causes of death
3 Methodology
4 Estimated range of deaths
5 January 2008 update: 1,033,000 deaths
6 Media coverage
7 See also
8 References
9 Further reading

[edit] Survey question and results

Participants of the survey were asked the following question:

"How many members of your household, if any, have died as a result of the conflict in Iraq since 2003 (ie as a result of violence rather than a natural death such as old age)? Please note that I mean those who were actually living under your roof."

The results were

Number of deaths in household	Percent of responders
None	78%
One	16%
Two	5%
Three	1%
Four or more	0.002%

Based on the responses, the total casualties were calculated to be 1,220,580 deaths.

[edit] Causes of death

ORB reported that "48% died from a gunshot wound, 20% from the impact of a car bomb, 9% from aerial bombardment, 6% as a result of an accident and 6% from another blast/ordnance."^[1]

[edit] Methodology

From the September 14, 2007 ORB press release^[1]:

Results are based on face-to-face interviews amongst a nationally representative sample of 1,720 adults aged 18+ throughout Iraq (1,499 agreed to answer the question on household deaths)

The standard margin of error on the sample who answered (1,499) is +2.5%

The methodology uses multi-stage random probability sampling and covers fifteen of the eighteen governorates within Iraq. For security reasons Karbala and Al Anbar were not included. Irbil was excluded as the authorities refused the field team a permit.

[edit] Estimated range of deaths

The 2005 census reported 4,050,597 households. From this ORB calculated 1,220,580 deaths since the 2003 invasion. From the poll margin of error of 2.5% ORB came up with a range of 733,158 to 1,446,063 deaths.^[1]

[edit] January 2008 update: 1,033,000 deaths

Opinion Research Business published an update to the survey on 28 January 2008, based on additional work carried out in rural areas of Iraq. Some 600 additional interviews were undertaken and as a result of this the death estimate was revised to 1,033,000 with a given range of 946,000 to 1,120,000.^[5]

[edit] Media coverage

A September 18, 2007 Media Lens article^[6], titled "The Media Ignore Credible Poll Revealing 1.2 Million Violent Deaths In Iraq", reported:

"Another aspect of reality that has no place in the corporate media’s painted window was highlighted last Friday with the release (September 14) of a new report by the British polling organisation, Opinion Research Business (ORB). ORB is no dissident, anti-war outfit; it is a respected polling company that has conducted studies for customers as mainstream as the BBC and the Conservative Party."

The MediaLens article also reported:

"And yet, despite its obvious significance, the ORB study has been almost entirely blanked by the US-UK media. At time of writing, four days after the findings were announced, the poll has been mentioned in just one national UK newspaper - ironically, the pro-war Observer. It has been ignored by the Guardian and the Independent."

The World Socialist Website has also criticized the media for under reporting this survey.^[7] A week after its release, in the USA, only the Los Angeles Times^[3] carried the story, of the leading newspapers, although NPR^[8] did a piece on it the following Tuesday. In the UK, BBC TV buried it in 81 words at the end of a 34 second segment^[6] about a bombing in Baghdad on its flagship news magazine Newsnight. On the BBC website, it was described in 131 words tagged on at the end of an unrelated article with no mention of the study in the title^[9]. In both the Newsnight and BBC online pieces the ORB figure was conflated with a figure purporting to measure only reported civilian deaths, most likely a small fraction of total deaths. The only report in the UK press was in The Observer where it was appended to a story on Alan Greenspan's saying Iraq was about oil^[4]. In Australia the news remained unprinted even after a week.