Results of the Canadian federal election, 2004: Ontario

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[edit] Ontario

Ontario was widely regarded as the main battle ground of the 2004 federal election in Canada. Most pundits believed that this is where the election was lost for the Conservative Party. Ontario is home to more than one third of all of Canada's ridings. In the last three elections, right wing vote-splitting has resulted in just six riding losses for the Liberal Party, compared to 299 riding wins. This changed somewhat after the merger of the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservative Party, with a number of largely rural seats in going Conservative. The New Democratic Party (NDP) has some support in various pockets in Ontario in the past, but has only won one riding in the last three elections, and one more in a by-election, both in Windsor. The did somewhat better, winning seats in not only in Windsor, but in Hamilton, Downtown Toronto, Ottawa Centre, and in Northern Ontario.

[edit] Ottawa

Profile & Notes Electoral History
With the exception of west and the southern suburban and rural areas, the former Region of Ottawa-Carleton is a Liberal stronghold. A high proportion of francophones and civil servants have made ridings such as Ottawa—Vanier among the safest Liberal seats in the country. The NDP's only historical victory in the area, Ottawa Centre in 1984, was repeated this year, as their former leader Ed Broadbent was elected. They also ran star candidate Monia Mazigh in Ottawa South, but she did not win.

Notes:1 - formerly held by Mac Harb
2 - Bellemare lost nomination

 ••••••• 2004
•••••• 2000
•••••• 1997
•••••• 1993
•••••• 1988
••••• 1984
••••• 1980
••••• 1979
Electoral District Candidates   Incumbent
  Liberal   Conservative   NDP   Green   Other
Carleton—Lanark Dan Wicklum
22,185		 Gordon O'Connor
32,664		 Rick Prashaw
6,758		 Stuart Langstaff
3,665		   new district
Nepean—Carleton David Pratt
26,684		 Pierre Poilievre
30,420		 Phil Brown [1]
6,072		 Chris Walker
2,886		 Brad Powers (Mar.)
561		 David Pratt
Ottawa Centre Richard Mahoney
19,478		 Mike Murphy
11,933		 Ed Broadbent
25,734		 David Chernushenko
4,730		 Michael Foster (Mar.)
455
Louis Lang (M-L)
67
Stuart Ryan (Comm.)
90
Robert Gauthier (Ind.)
121
Carla Marie Dancey (CAP)
76		 Vacant1
Ottawa—Orléans Marc Godbout
26,383		 Walter Robinson
23,655		 Crystal Leblanc
5,905		 Dan Biocchi
2,699		   Eugène Bellemare †
Ottawa South David McGuinty
25,956		 Alan Riddell
20,622		 Monia Mazigh
8,080		 John Ford
3,398		 Brad Thomson (PC)
375
John Akpata (Mar.)
495
Saroj Bains (M-L)
79
Raymond Aubin (Ind.)
225		 John Manley †
Ottawa—Vanier Mauril Bélanger
25,952		 Kevin Friday
12,769		 Ric Dagenais
9,787		 Raphaël Thierrin
3,628		 Françoise Roy (M-L)
85
Carol Taylor (Mar.)
558		 Mauril Bélanger
Ottawa West—Nepean Marlene Catterall
23,971		 Sean Casey
22,591		 Marlene Rivier
7,449		 Neil Adair
2,748		 Alexandre Legeais (M-L)
68
Russell Barth (Mar.)
430
Mary-Sue Haliburton (CAP)
121		 Marlene Catterall

[edit] Eastern Ontario

Profile & Notes Electoral History
Though recent election results imply otherwise, this region is traditionally a Conservative-Liberal split. Most of the rural anglophone areas in the western, southern, and more recently northern parts of this region lean conservative. The Liberals are strong in the far eastern parts of the region, where there is a significant francophone population. The 1984 election saw the Progressive Conservatives sweep the country and the region, claiming all ridings except the francophone-heavy Glengarry—Prescott—Russell and Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke (held by strong incumbent Len Hopkins). In 1988, the Tories lost four seats to the Liberals, holding onto only Lanark—Carleton and Hastings—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington. In 1993, as the Tories collapsed nationwide, the Liberals won every single riding in this region, and would do so again in 1997 thanks to vote splitting between the Progressive Conservatives and the Reform Party. Reform's successor, the Canadian Alliance, finally made breakthroughs here in 2000, winning two seats in the upper Ottawa Valley. With the merger of the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives, the new Conservative Party of Canada made significant breakthroughs in the anglophone portions of this region.

Notes:
1 - Vanclief not seeking re-election

 ••••••• 2004
•••••••• 2000
•••••••• 1997
•••••••• 1993
•••••••• 1988
•••••••• 1984
•••••••• 1980
•••••••• 1979
Electoral District Candidates Incumbent
Liberal Conservative NDP Green Other
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Don Boudria
23,921		 Alain Lalonde
18,729		 Martin Cauvier
4,238		 Roy Fjarlie
2,634		 Tim Bloedow (CHP)
464		 Don Boudria
Kingston and the Islands Peter Milliken
28,544		 Blair MacLean
12,582		 Rob Hutchison
8,964		 Janina Fisher Balfour
3,339		 Don Rogers (CAP)
179
Terry Marshall (CHP)
481
Karl Eric Walker (Ind.)
100
Rosie The Clown Elston (Ind.)
237		 Peter Milliken
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington Larry McCormick
17,507		 Scott Reid
27,566		 Ross Sutherland
7,418		 John Baranyi
2,736		 Bill Vankoughnet (Ind.)
820
George Kolaczynski (Mar.)
479		 Larry McCormick
merged district
Scott Reid
Leeds—Grenville Joe Jordan
16,967		 Gord Brown
26,002		 Steve Armstrong
5,834		 Chris Bradshaw
2,722		   Joe Jordan
Prince Edward—Hastings Bruce Knutson
20,042		 Daryl Kramp
22,598		 Dan Douglas
8,105		 Tom Lawson
2,130		 Joseph Sahadat (Ind.)
468		 Lyle Vanclief1
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Rob Jamieson
14,798		 Cheryl Gallant
27,494		 Sue McSheffrey
5,720		 Gord McLeod
1,191		 Stanley Sambey (Mar.)
714		 Cheryl Gallant
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Bob Kilger
17,779		 Guy Lauzon
21,678		 Elaine MacDonald
5,387		 Tom Manley
3,491		   Bob Kilger

[edit] Central Ontario

Profile & Notes Electoral History
The central region of southern Ontario—most notably its rural portions in and around Lake Simcoe—is the closest thing one finds to a conservative heartland in Canada's largest province and provincial conservative governments have long relied on this region as the nucleus of their powerbase. Overwhelmingly white, Protestant and agrarian with a large number of social conservatives, the Reform Party and Canadian Alliance's unapologetic conservative populism took root here relatively early, with Simcoe Centre electing a Reform MP in 1993. Vote-splitting with Progressive Conservatives is often cited as the only reason Liberals otherwise swept this region during the Chretien years, and few expected all the Liberal incumbents to be returned this year. Notable Conservative candidates include former leadership contender Belinda Stronach and backroom heavy-hitter Peter Van Loan. The electoral district of Peterborough has long been recognized by political scientists as one of the best bellwether ridings in the country.

Notes:
1 - Shepherd not seeking re-election
2 - Kraft Sloan not seeking re-election

 ••••••••••• 2004
•••••••••• 2000
•••••••••• 1997
••••••••• 1993
••••••••• 1988
•••••••• 1984
•••••••• 1980
•••••••• 1979
Electoral District Candidates Incumbent
Liberal Conservative NDP Green Other
Barrie Aileen Carroll
21,233		 Patrick Brown
19,938		 Peter Bursztyn
5,312		 Erich Jacoby-Hawkins
3,288		   Aileen Carroll
Clarington—Scugog—Uxbridge Tim Lang
19,548		 Bev Oda
20,813		 Bruce Rogers
7,721		 Virginia Ervin
2,085		 Durk Bruinsma (CHP)
915		 Alex Shepherd 1
Dufferin—Caledon Murray Calder
17,557		 David Tilson
19,270		 Rita Landry
3,798		 Ted Alexander
3,947		 Ursula Ellis (CHP)
443		 Murray Calder
Grey—Bruce—Owen Sound Ovid L. Jackson
17,824		 Larry Miller
22,411		 Sebastian Ostertag
6,516		 Alex Drossos
2,076		 Steven Taylor (CHP)
982		 Ovid L. Jackson
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock John O'Reilly
19,294		 Barry Devolin
24,731		 Gil McElroy
8,427		 Tim Holland
2,637		 Peter Vogel (CHP)
493
Charles Olito (Ind.)
330		 John O'Reilly
Newmarket—Aurora Martha Hall Findlay
21,129		 Belinda Stronach
21,818		 Ed Chudak
5,111		 Daryl Wyatt
2,298		 Dorian Baxter (PC)
1,079		 new district
Northumberland—Quinte West Paul Macklin
22,989		 Doug Galt
22,676		 Russ Christianson
9,007		 Steve Haylestrom
3,016		   Paul Macklin
Peterborough Peter Adams
25,099		 James Jackson
18,393		 Linda Slavin
10,957		 Brent Wood
3,182		   Peter Adams
Simcoe—Grey Paul Bonwick
22,396		 Helena Guergis
22,496		 Colin Mackinnon
5,532		 Peter Ellis
2,668		 Peter Vander Zaag (CHP)
2,285		 Paul Bonwick
Simcoe North Paul DeVillers
23,664		 Peter Stock
20,570		 Jen Hill
6,162		 Mary Lou Kirby
3,486		 Adrian Kooger (CHP)
544
Ian Woods (CAP)
145		 Paul DeVillers
York—Simcoe Kate Wilson
16,763		 Peter Van Loan
21,343		 Sylvia Gerl
5,314		 Bob Burrows
2,576		 Vicki Gunn (CHP)
588
Stephen Sircelj (PC)
670		 Karen Kraft Sloan ²

[edit] Southern Durham and York

Profile & Notes Electoral History
This sprawling and rapidly-growing suburban area to the north and east of the City of Toronto encompasses the eastern portion of what Canadian political watchers in the early nineties dubbed the "905 belt"—a swath of middle class suburban voters roughly corresponding to the same boundaries of the 905 Area Code. 905's buy-in on the provincial level to Mike Harris's Common Sense Revolution secured him two conservative majority governments, while its rejection of the Tories in 2003 paved the way for Dalton McGuinty's landslide. In this election the 905 again went solidly for the Liberals, perhaps the Conservatives most important defeat.

Notes:
1 - Grose lost nomination
2 - Caplan not seeking re-election

 ••••••••• 2004
••••••• 2000
••••••• 1997
•••• 1993
•••• 1988
••• 1984
••• 1980
••• 1979
Electoral District Candidates Incumbent
Liberal Conservative NDP Green Other
Ajax—Pickering Mark Holland
21,706		 René Soetens
14,666		 Kevin Modeste
5,286		 Karen MacDonald
1,951		   new district
Markham—Unionville John McCallum
30,442		 Joe Li
10,325		 Janice Hagan
3,993		 Ed Wong
1,148		   John McCallum
Oak Ridges—Markham Lui Temelkovski
31,964		 Bob Callow
20,712		 Pamela Courtot
5,430		 Bernadette Manning
2,406		 Jim Conrad (PC)
820
Maurice Whittle (CHP)
458		 new district
Oshawa Louise Parkes
14,510		 Colin Carrie
15,815		 Sid Ryan
15,352		 Liisa Whalley
1,850		 Tim Sullivan (M-L)
91		 Ivan Grose1
Pickering—Scarborough East Dan McTeague
27,312		 Tim Dobson
13,417		 Gary Dale
5,392		 Matthew Pollesel
1,809		   Dan McTeague
Richmond Hill Bryon Wilfert
27,102		 Peter Merrifield
11,530		 Nella Cotrupi
4,495		 Tim Rudkins
2,144		 Ellena Lam (PC)
1,074		 Bryon Wilfert
Thornhill Susan Kadis
28,709		 Josh Cooper
18,125		 Rick Morelli
3,671		 Lloyd Helferty
1,622		 Simion Iron (Ind.)
233
Benjamin Fitzerman (Ind.)
241		 Elinor Caplan²
Vaughan Maurizio Bevilacqua
31,430		 Joe Spina
11,821		 Octavia Beckles
4,371		 Russell Korus
1,722		 Paolo Fabrizio (Libert.)
388
Walter Aolari (CAP)
192		 Maurizio Bevilacqua
Whitby—Oshawa Judi Longfield
25,649		 Ian MacNeil
20,531		 Maret Sadem-Thompson
8,002		 Michael MacDonald
2,759		   Judi Longfield

[edit] Central Toronto

Profile & Notes Electoral History
Since 1993 Central Toronto has been a bastion of Liberal support. It is far more competitive in the 2004 election, however, largely because new NDP leader Jack Layton is a former Toronto city councillor who has reoriented the NDP towards drawing support in the urban centres. Most of the ridings remained safe Liberal seats, with only four or five seats vulnerable to the New Democrats and Conservatives. Eventually only Layton was to win his seat.

Notes:
1 - Caccia not seeking re-election

 •••••••••• 2004
•••••••••• 2000
•••••••••• 1997
•••••••••• 1993
•••••••••• 1988
••••••••••• 1984
••••••••••• 1980
••••••••••• 1979
Electoral District Candidates Incumbent
Liberal Conservative NDP Green Other
Beaches—East York Maria Minna
22,494		 Nick Nikopoulos
6,603		 Peter Tabuns
15,156		 Peter Davison
2,127		 Roger Carter (M-L)
46
Daniel Dufresne (Mar.)
365
Edward Slota (Ind.)
80
Miguel Figueroa (Comm.)
62		 Maria Minna
Davenport Mario Silva
16,773		 Theresa Rodrigues
3,077		 Rui Pires
11,292		 Mark O'Brien
1,384		 Sarah Thompson (M-L)
79
Elmer Gale (Mar.)
251
John Riddell (CAP)
97
Johan Boyden (Comm.)
137		 Charles Caccia1
Don Valley West John Godfrey
30,615		 David Turnbull
14,495		 David Thomas
4,393		 Serge Abbat
1,703		   John Godfrey
Eglinton—Lawrence Joe Volpe
28,360		 Bernie Tanz
11,792		 Max Silverman
4,886		 Shel Goldstein
1,924		 Corrinne Prévost (CAP)
115		 Joe Volpe
Parkdale—High Park Sarmite Bulte
19,727		 Jurij Klufas
7,221		 Peggy Nash
16,201		 Niel Spiegel
3,249		 Lorne Gershuny (M-L)
130
Terry Parker (Mar.)
384		 Sarmite Bulte
St. Paul's Carolyn Bennett
32,171		 Barry Cline
11,226		 Norm Tobias
8,667		 Peter Elgie
3,031		   Carolyn Bennett
Toronto Centre Bill Graham
30,336		 Megan Harris
7,936		 Michael Shapcott
12,747		 Gabriel Draven
2,097		 Philip Fernandez (M-L)
65
Dan Goldstick (Comm.)
106
Kevin Peck (CAP)
63
Jay Wagner (Mar.)
313		 Bill Graham
Toronto—Danforth Dennis Mills
19,803		 Loftus Cuddy
2,975		 Jack Layton
22,198		 Jim Harris
2,575		 Scott Yee (Mar.)
265
Marcell Rodden (M-L)
84		 Dennis Mills
Trinity—Spadina Tony Ianno
23,202		 David Watters
4,605		 Olivia Chow
22,397		 Mark Viitala
2,259		 Asif Hossain (PC)
531
Nick Lin (M-L)
102
Daniel Knezetic (Ind.)
89
Tristan Downe-Dewdney (CAP)
91		 Tony Ianno
York South—Weston Alan Tonks
20,537		 Stephen Halicki
5,133		 Paul Ferreira
7,281		 Jessica Fracassi
1,199		 Shirley Hawley (Comm.)
175		 Alan Tonks

[edit] Suburban Toronto

Profile & Notes Electoral History
Suburban Toronto ridings have collectively racked up the largest Liberal numbers in the country in recent years, with ridings like Scarborough—Rouge River delivering upwards of 80% of the vote to the Chretien Liberals in 2000. The region, however, went uniformly blue during Mulroney's 1984 sweep; four years earlier its changing whims almost single-handedly prevented Joe Clark from re-forming a government. The Conservatives hoped to make progress in this area, but it again went solidly Liberal.

Notes:
1 - Collenette not seeking re-election.
2 - formerly held by Allan Rock.
3 - Eggleton not seeking re-election.

 •••••••••••• 2004
•••••••••••• 2000
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•••••••••••• 1988
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•••••••••••• 1980
•••••••••••• 1979
Electoral District Candidates Incumbent
Liberal Conservative NDP Green Other
Don Valley East Yasmin Ratansi
21,864		 David Johnson
11,206		 Valerie Mah
5,287		 Dan King
1,172		 Ryan Kidd (CHP)
351
Christopher Black (Comm.)
149		 David Collenette1
Etobicoke Centre Borys Wrzesnewskyj
30,441		 Lida Preyma
14,829		 John Richmond
5,174		 Margo Pearson
1,676		 France Tremblay (M-L)
112		 (vacant)²
Etobicoke—Lakeshore Jean Augustine
24,909		 John Capobianco
15,159		 Margaret Anne McHugh
7,179		 John Huculiak
2,201		 Janice Murray (M-L)
129		 Jean Augustine
Etobicoke North Roy Cullen
19,450		 Rupinder Nannar
5,737		 Cesar Martello
3,761		 Mir Kamal
605		 Anna Di Carlo (M-L)
195
George Szebik (Ind.)
309
William Ubbens (CHP)
661		 Roy Cullen
Scarborough—Agincourt Jim Karygiannis
26,400		 Andrew Faust
8,649		 D'arcy Palmer
4,182		 Wayne Yeechong
919		 Tony Karadimas (PC)
1,048		 Jim Karygiannis
Scarborough Centre John Cannis
20,740		 John Mihtis
8,515		 Greg Gogan
6,156		 Greg Bonser
1,045		 Dorothy Sauras (Comm.)
152		 John Cannis
Scarborough—Guildwood John McKay
20,950		 Tom Varesh
8,277		 Sheila White
5,885		 Paul Charbonneau
1,106		 Brenda Thompson (CAP)
200		 John McKay
Scarborough—Rouge River Derek Lee
22,564		 Tony Backhurst
5,184		 Fauzia Khan
3,635		 Kathryn Holloway
610		 Raymond Cho (Ind.)
6,962		 Derek Lee
Scarborough Southwest Tom Wappel
18,776		 Heather Jewell
9,028		 Dan Harris
8,471		 Peter Van Dalen
1,520		 Elizabeth Rowley (Comm.)
168		 Tom Wappel
Willowdale Jim Peterson
30,855		 Jovan Boseovski
11,615		 Yvonne Bobb
4,812		 Sharolyn Vettese
1,844		 Ardavan Behrouzi (PC)
883
Bernadette Michael (Ind.)
253		 Jim Peterson
York Centre Ken Dryden†
21,520		 Michael Mostyn
10,318		 Peter Flaherty
5,376		 Constantine Kritsonis
1,240		 Max Royz (Ind.)
824		 Art Eggleton³
York West Judy Sgro
17,903		 Leslie Soobrian
3,120		 Sandra Romano Anthony
4,228		 Tim McKellar
824		 Joseph Grubb (CHP)
1,580		 Judy Sgro

[edit] Brampton, Mississauga and Oakville

Profile & Notes Electoral History
This area is part of the rapidly growing 905 belt, where the Conservatives were hoping for a breakthrough, as it is a traditionally Conservative area. Until their collapse in 1993, the Conservatives only lost two ridings in this area between 1979 and 1988. Despite star candidates, such as former Ontario cabinet minister and federal Conservative leadership candidate Tony Clement, the Conservatives failed to win seats here as in the other parts of suburban Toronto.

Notes:
1 - Hundal replaced previous Conservative candidate Gurjit Grewal after a past conviction for assault came to light.
2 - Assadourian not seeking re-election.
3 - Mahoney lost nomination.

 ••••••••• 2004
•••••••• 2000
•••••••• 1997
••••••• 1993
••••••• 1988
••• 1984
••• 1980
••• 1979
Electoral District Candidates Incumbent
Liberal Conservative NDP Green Other
Bramalea—Gore—Malton Gurbax S. Malhi
20,394		 Raminder Gill
12,594		 Fernando Miranda
6,113		 Sharleen McDowall
1,832		 Frank Chilelli (M-L)
237		 Gurbax S. Malhi
Brampton—Springdale Ruby Dhalla†
19,385		 Sam Hundal1
11,182		 Kathy Pounder
8,038		 Nick Hudson
1,927		 Gurdev Singh Mattu (Comm.)
86		 Sarkis Assadourian²
Brampton West Colleen Beaumier
21,254		 Tony Clement
18,768		 Chris Moise
4,920		 Sanjeev Goel
1,603		 Tom Bose (Ind.)
371		 Colleen Beaumier
Mississauga—Brampton South Navdeep Singh Bains
24,753		 Parvinder Sandhu
10,433		 Larry Taylor
6,411		 Paul Simas
1,525		 David Gershuny (M-L)
185		 new district
Mississauga East—Cooksville Albina Guarnieri
22,435		 Riina DeFeria
10,299		 Jim Gill
4,619		 Jason Hinchcliffe
1,167		 Pierre Chénier (M-L)
154
Sally Wong (CHP)
778
Andrew Seitz (Ind.)
114		 Albina Guarnieri
Mississauga—Erindale Carolyn Parrish
28,246		 Bob Dechert
16,600		 Simon Black
5,104		 Jeff Brownridge
1,855		 David Greig (M-L)
145		 Carolyn Parrish
merged district
Steve Mahoney³
Mississauga South Paul Szabo
24,628		 Phil Green
16,027		 Michael James Culkin
5,004		 Neeraj Jain
1,899		 Dagmar Sullivan (M-L)
107		 Paul Szabo
Mississauga—Streetsville Wajid Khan
22,768		 Nina Tangri
14,287		 Manjinder Rai
4,266		 Otto Casanova
2,415		 Peter Creighton (PC)
1,293		 new district
Oakville Bonnie Brown
28,729		 Rick Byers
19,524		 Alison Myrden
4,027		 Tania Orton
2,861		 Zeshan Shahbaz (CAP)
95		 Bonnie Brown

[edit] Hamilton, Burlington and Niagara

Profile & Notes Electoral History
This region has been traditionally Conservative, however the Liberal Party swept the region, along with most of the rest in Ontario, in the last three elections. However, most Liberal victories outside Hamilton proper can be attributed to vote-splitting between the two right-wing parties. The Conservatives had targeted several ridings in the area in this election. While in Hamilton, the NDP was looking for major gains as well. In the end the Liberals stimied both parties with the NDP only gaining a seat.

Notes:
1 - Bryden defected from Liberals in Feb. '04; lost Conservative nomination.
2 - Reed not seeking re-election.
3 - Copps lost nomination.
4 - Pillitteri not seeking re-election.
5 - Tirabassi lost nomination.

 •••••••••• 2004
••••••••••• 2000
••••••••••• 1997
••••••••••• 1993
••••••••••• 1988
••••••••••• 1984
••••••••••• 1980
••••••••••• 1979
Electoral District Candidates Incumbent
Liberal Conservative NDP Green Other
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale Russ Powers
21,935		 David Sweet
19,135		 Gordon Guyatt
11,557		 David Januczkowski
2,636		   John Bryden1
Burlington Paddy Torsney
27,423		 Mike Wallace
23,389		 David Laird
6,581		 Angela Reid
3,169		 John Herman Wubs (CHP)
429		 Paddy Torsney
Halton Gary Carr
27,362		 Dean Martin
21,704		 Anwar Naqvi
4,642		 Frank Marchetti
2,889		   Julian Reed²
Hamilton Centre Stan Keyes
14,948		 Leon O'Connor
6,714		 David Christopherson
20,321		 Anne Marie Pavlov
1,422		 Stephen Downey (CHP)
520
Jamile Ghaddar (M-L)
91
Michael Baldasaro (Ind.)
345		 Stan Keyes
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Tony Valeri
18,417		 Fred Eisenberger
10,888		 Tony DePaulo
17,490		 Richard Safka
1,446		 Bob Mann (CHP)
166
Sam Cino (Ind.)
393		 Tony Valeri
merged district
Sheila Copps³
Hamilton Mountain Beth Phinney
18,548		 Tom Jackson
15,590		 Chris Charlton
17,552		 Jo Pavlov
1,378		 Paul Lane (M-L)
214		 Beth Phinney
Niagara Falls Victor Pietrangelo
18,745		 Rob Nicholson
19,882		 Wayne Gates
10,680		 Ted Mousseau
2,071		   Gerry Pillitteri4
Niagara West—Glanbrook Debbie Zimmerman
20,210		 Dean Allison
20,874		 David Heatley
7,681		 Tom Ferguson
1,761		 David Bylsma (CHP)
1,107
Phil Rose (CAP)
179		 new district
St. Catharines Walt Lastewka
21,277		 Leo Bonomi
18,261		 Ted Mouradian
10,135		 Jim Fannon
1,927		 Elaine Couto (M-L)
61
Linda Klassen (CHP)
751
Jane Paxton (CAP)
204		 Walt Lastewka
Welland John Maloney
19,642		 Mel Grunstein
12,997		 Jody Di Bartolomeo
14,623		 Ryan McLaughlin
1,454		 Ron Walker (M-L)
113
Irma Ruiter (CHP)
735		 John Maloney
merged district
Tony Tirabassi5

[edit] Midwestern Ontario

Profile & Notes Electoral History

This area is traditionally conservative, except for the riding of Brant which has not voted Conservative since 1958. Brant is where the NDP did well with popular MP Derek Blackburn from 1971-1993. However, the NDP have been unable to duplicate this success in this area, and are unlikely to do so. The Conservatives won every other seat except for three seats in 1979, 1980, 1984, and 1988 sweeping the area (except for Brant) in 1984 and 1979. The three seats that went Liberal were Guelph and Kitchener (1980) and Haldimand-Norfolk (1988). Since the collapse of the Conservatives, and vote splitting the Liberals swept this area in 1993, 1997 and 2000. With a united right several seats went to the Conservatives.
Notes:
1 - Stewart not seeking re-election
2 - Finlay not seeking re-election

 ••••••••••• 2004
•••••••••• 2000
•••••••••• 1997
••••••••• 1993
••••••••• 1988
••••••••• 1984
••••••••• 1980
••••••••• 1979
Electoral District Candidates Incumbent
Liberal Conservative NDP Green Other
Brant Lloyd St. Amand
20,455		 Gregory Martin
17,792		 Lynn Bowering
11,826		 Helen-Anne Embry
2,738		 John Turmel (Ind.)
373
Barra Gots (CHP)
570		 Jane Stewart1
Cambridge Janko Peric
18,899		 Gary Goodyear
19,123		 Gary Price
10,392		 Gareth White
2,506		 John Oprea (Ind.)
134
John Gots (CHP)
395
Alex Gryc (Ind.)
114		 Janko Peric
Guelph Brenda Chamberlain
23,442		 Jon Dearden
13,721		 Phil Allt
10,527		 Mike Nagy
3,866		 Manuel Couto (M-L)
66
Peter Ellis (CHP)
634
Lyne Rivard (Mar.)
291		 Brenda Chamberlain
Haldimand—Norfolk Bob Speller
19,336		 Diane Finley
20,981		 Carrie Sinkowski
7,143		 Colin Jones
1,703		 Steven Elgersma (CHP)
617		 Bob Speller
Huron—Bruce Paul Steckle
25,538		 Barbara Fisher
15,930		 Grant Robertson
6,707		 Dave Vasey
1,518		 Glen Smith (Mar.)
638
Dave Joslin (CHP)
958		 Paul Steckle
Kitchener Centre Karen Redman
21,264		 Thomas Ichim
12,412		 Richard Walsh-Bowers
8,717		 Karol Vesely
2,450		 Mark Corbiere (Ind.)
277		 Karen Redman
Kitchener—Conestoga Lynn Myers
17,819		 Frank Luellau
14,903		 Len Carter
6,623		 Kris Stapleton
2,793		   Lynn Myers
Kitchener—Waterloo Andrew Telegdi
28,015		 Steven Strauss
17,155		 Edwin Laryea
9,267		 Pauline Richards
3,277		 Frank Ellis (CHP)
379
Ciprian Mihalcea (Ind.)
124		 Andrew Telegdi
Oxford Murray Coutler
14,011		 David Mackenzie
20,606		 Zoé Dorcas Kunschner
6,673		 Irene Tietz
1,951		 Kaye Sargent (Libert.)
226
Alex Kreider (CAP)
108
James Bender (Mar.)
794
Leslie Bartley (CHP)
1,534		 John Finlay²
Perth—Wellington Brian Innes
15,032		 Gary Schellenberger
18,879		 Robert Roth
7,027		 John Cowling
2,770		 Irma Devries (CHP)
1,273		 Gary Schellenberger
Wellington—Halton Hills Bruce Hood
19,173		 Mike Chong
21,479		 Noel Duignan
5,974		 Brent Bouteiller
2,725		 Pat Woode (CHP)
826		 new district

[edit] Southwestern Ontario

Profile & Notes Electoral History

Southwestern Ontario is traditionally a very Liberal region of Ontario, but is divided between urban and rural. The Liberals do well in the cities of Windsor and London, and Conservatives do well in the rural areas of Kent County, Essex County, Lambton County, Elgin County, and Middlesex County. The NDP also has done well in the past, and currently in Windsor and London, where unions are strong. The NDP was elected in both Windsor-Walkerville and London-Fanshawe in 1984 and 1988, and hold both Windsor seats currently. The Liberas swept all but the riding of Elgin in 1980, the Conservatives swept all but the two Windsor ridings in 1984, and one London riding. The Liberals swept every single riding here in 1993 and 1997, and all but the riding of Windsor-St. Clair in 2000.

 •••••••••• 2004
•••••••••• 2000
•••••••••• 1997
••••••••••• 1993
••••••••••• 1988
••••••••••• 1984
••••••••••• 1980
••••••••••• 1979
Electoral District Candidates Incumbent
Liberal Conservative NDP Green Other
Chatham-Kent—Essex Jerry Pickard
17,435		 Dave Van Kesteren
17,028		 Kathleen Kevany
7,538		 Rod Hetherington
1,845		 Margaret Mondaca (M-L)
150		 Jerry Pickard
Elgin—Middlesex—London Gar Knutson
15,860		 Joe Preston
20,333		 Tim McCallum
6,763		 Julie-Ann Stodolny
2,033		 Ken DeVries (CHP)
1,246
Will Arlow (CAP)
146		 Gar Knutson
Essex Susan Whelan
17,926		 Jeff Watson
18,755		 David Tremblay
12,519		 Paul Forman
1,981		 Robert Cruise (M-L)
105		 Susan Whelan
London—Fanshawe Pat O'Brien
15,664		 John Mazzilli
10,811		 Irene Mathyssen
12,511		 Ed Moore
1,634		 Derrall Bellaire (PC)
453
Cameron Switzer (M-L)
65		 Pat O'Brien
London North Centre Joe Fontana
21,472		 Tim Gatten
13,677		 Joe Swan
12,034		 Bronagh Morgan
2,376		 Rod Morley (PC)
220
Gustavo Granados-Ocon (M-L)
67		 Joe Fontana
London West Sue Barnes
25,061		 Mike Menear
17,335		 Gina Barber
9,522		 Rebecca Bromwich
2,611		 Steve Hunter (PC)
511
Margaret Villamizar (M-L)
67		 Sue Barnes
Middlesex—Kent—Lambton Rose-Marie Ur
19,452		 Bev Shipley
19,288		 Kevin Blake
7,376		 Allan McKeown
1,834		 Allan James (CHP)
1,015		 Rose-Marie Ur
Sarnia—Lambton Roger Gallaway
19,932		 Marcel Beaubien
14,500		 Greg Agar
7,764		 Anthony Cramer
2,548		 Dave Core (Ind.)
749
John Elliot (Ind.)
229
Gary De Boer (CHP)
1,819		 Roger Gallaway
Windsor—Tecumseh Rick Limoges
16,219		 Rick Fuschi
9,827		 Joe Comartin
20,037		 Élizabeth Powles
1,613		 Laura Chesnik (M-L)
182		 Joe Comartin
Windsor West Richard Pollock
13,831		 Jordan Katz
8,348		 Brian Masse
20,297		 Rob Spring
1,545		 Enver Villamizar (M-L)
134		 Brian Masse

[edit] Northern Ontario

Profile & Notes Electoral History

Northern Ontario is traditionally a very Liberal area in Ontario, but with historically strong showings by the NDP. The Conservatives have only won a combined total of 9 seats in Northern Ontario since 1979, 4 of which in the very Conservative Parry Sound Muskoka. The NDP has consistently done well here, finishing either first or second, even if it means not winning seats. They are especially strong in Thunder Bay-Atikokan, Nickel Belt, and Sault Ste. Marie, but have also won seats in Kenora-Rainy River, Thunder Bay-Nipigon, and Timmins Chapleau. The only bad showing by the Liberals since 1979 came in 1984, where they still managed 3 of 12 seats winning in Algoma, Sudbury, and Cochrane despite a national Conservative landslide.
Notes:
1 - Nault not seeking re-election
2 - Wood not seeking re-election
3 - Dromisky not seeking re-election
4 - Bélair and Serré not seeking re-election

 ••••••••• 2004
•••••••••• 2000
•••••••••• 1997
•••••••••••• 1993
•••••••••••• 1988
•••••••••••• 1984
•••••••••••• 1980
•••••••••••• 1979
Electoral District Candidates Incumbent
Liberal Conservative NDP Green Other
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing Brent St. Denis
14,276		 Blaine Armstrong
8,093		 Carol Hughes
11,051		 Lindsay Killen
1,449		   Brent St. Denis
Kenora Roger Valley
8,563		 Bill Brown
6,598		 Susan Barclay
7,577		 Carl Chaboyer
898		   Bob Nault1
Nickel Belt Raymond Bonin
17,188		 Michel Dupont
7,628		 Claude Gravelle
13,980		 Steve Lafleur
1,031		 Don Lavallee (Ind.)
217
Steve Rutchinski (M-L)
51
Michel Ethier (Mar.)
430		 Raymond Bonin
Nipissing-Timiskaming Anthony Rota
18,254		 Al McDonald
16,001		 Dave Fluri
7,354		 Les Wilcox
1,329		 Ross MacLean (CAP)
204
 Bob Wood²
merged district
Ben Serré4
Parry Sound—Muskoka Andy Mitchell
19,271		 Keith Montgomery
15,970		 Jo-Anne Boulding
5,171		 Glen Hodgson
3,524		   Andy Mitchell
Sault Ste. Marie Carmen Provenzano
15,760		 Cameron Ross
9,969		 Tony Martin
16,512		 Julie Emmerson
814		 Mike Taffarel (M-L)
67		 Carmen Provenzano
Sudbury Diane Marleau
18,914		 Stephen Butcher
9,008		 Gerry McIntaggart
12,781		 Luke Norton
1,999		 David Starbuck (M-L)
100		 Diane Marleau
Thunder Bay—Rainy River Ken Boshcoff
14,290		 David Leskowski
9,559		 John Rafferty
10,781		 Russ Aegard
856		 Johannes Scheibler (CHP)
267
Doug Thompson (Mar.)
547		 Stan Dromisky³
Thunder Bay—Superior North Joe Comuzzi
15,022		 Beverly Sarafin
7,394		 Bruce Hyer
10,230		 Carl Rose
1,614		 Denis Carrière (Mar.)
645		 Joe Comuzzi
Timmins—James Bay Ray Chénier
13,525		 Andrew Van Oosten
5,682		 Charlie Angus
14,138		 Marsha Kriss
767		   Réginald Bélair4
merged district
Ben Serré4