Nils-Axel Mörner

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Nils-Axel Mörner is the former head of the Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics department at Stockholm University, having retired in 2005. He was president of the INQUA Commission on Neotectonics (1981-1989) and president of the INQUA (International Union for Quaternary Research) Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution (1999-2003).[1] He headed the INTAS (International Association for the promotion of cooperation with scientists from the New Independent States of the former Soviet Union) Project on Geomagnetism and Climate (1997-2003). He is a critic of the IPCC and the notion that the global sea level is rising.

Contents

[edit] Publications

He has also published books and papers on the interaction among isostacy and eustasy, the oscillating regional eustatic curve of NW Europe, the changing geoid concept, the redefinition of the concept of eustasy, the dynamic-rotational redistribution of oceanic water masses, and the interchange of angular momentum between the hydrosphere and solid Earth. His publications span over thirty years. His most cited paper has been cited about 30 times in early 2008. At that time his Hirsch index, as ascertained with Google Scholar, was 9, meaning that nine of his papers which are in the Google Scholar system had been cited 9 or more times by other papers in Google Scholar.

[edit] Views on sea level change

Morner disagrees with the widely held view of past and future sea level change. A recent booklet The Greatest Lie Ever Told, published by Morner, refers to observational records of sea levels for the past 300 years that show variations - ups and downs, but no significant trend.[2] This contrasts with the usual view that sea level rise has been occurring at 2-3 mm/yr over the last century.[3] Morner asserts that satellite altimetry data indicate a mean rise in the order of 1.0 mm/yr from 1986 to 1996,[4] whereas most studies find a value around 3 mm/yr.

Morner argues that sea level rise will not exceed 200 mm, within a range of either +100±100 mm or +50±150 mm depending on assumptions.[5]

In 2004 the president of INQUA wrote that INQUA did not subscribe to Morner's views on climate change.[6]

In 2000 he launched an international sea level research project in the Maldives which claims to demonstrate an absence of signs of any on-going sea level rise. Despite President Gayoom speaking in the past about the impending dangers to his country,[7] the Maldives, Morner concluded that the people of the Maldives have in the past survived a higher sea level about 50-60 cm and there is evidence of a significant sea level fall in the last 30 years in that Indian Ocean area.[8][9]

In an interview in June, 20007, Morner described research he had done in the Maldives that had been reported in the documentary Doomsday Called Off. Specifically, he mentioned a tree he had discovered growing close to the shoreline as evidence to support his claim that sea level had actually fallen rather than risen. He also reported that the tree had been deliberately destroyed by a group of Australian researchers who were promoting the IPCC view that sea level was rising. [1]

[edit] Views on "water--witching" and "Dowsing"

Mörner has written a number of works claiming to provide theoretical support for dowsing, also known as water witching. [2] James Randi, the famous debunker of pseudo-science offered Mörner his $1,000,000 prize if he could successfully demonstrate water-witching which Mörner has advocated as scientific. As of early 2008 Mörner had not accepted The Amazing Randi's Challenge. Randi wrote in 1998

I've described here previously how a pompous-assed "dowsing expert" named Nils-Axel Mörner, associate professor of geology from Stockholm University, has consistently refused to be tested for the Pigasus Prize. [3]


[edit] Critique of IPCC results

Nils-Axel Mörner has been critical of the IPCC TAR sea level chapter. [4]

"The late 20th century sea level rise rate lacks any sign of acceleration. Satellite altimetry indicates virtually no changes in the last decade. Therefore, observationally based predictions of future sea level in the year 2100 will give a value of +10±10 cm (or +5±15 cm), by this discarding model outputs by IPCC as well as global loading models. This implies that there is no fear of any massive future flooding as claimed in most global warming scenarios."[5]

This is odd, because satellite altimetry does indicate change, at about 3 mm/yr, which is faster than that observed by the tide-gauge network.

Mörner, at the time president of the INQUA Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution, wrote about the IPCC TAR in 2000.

  • "0.09 to 0.88 metres between 1990 and 2100” – from SRES scenarios. These values are completely misleading and false. Our INQUA Commission on “Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution” (which hosts the leading world experts on just the topic) has a totally different view (expressed in my previous reviews). The expert/observational-based figure is 10 cm ±10 cm."
  • "It has been popular to threaten “small islands and low-lying coasts” with scenarios of disastrous future flooding. The Maldives has been the most utilised target. We have undertaken a careful analysis of actual sea level changes in the Maldives. No rise has been recorded either in the present or the past centuries. Instead we have documented a significant sea level fall in the last 20-30 years. Take this as Reality contra Models."
  • "All handling by IPCC of the Sea Level questions have been done in a way that cannot be accepted and that certainly not concur with modern knowledge of the mode and mechanism of sea level changes."
  • On TAR Chapter 11:
    • "Chapter 11 on "Sea Level Changes" was written by 33 persons; none of which represents actual sea level research. I have now finished a 7 pages review report. It is a most shocking reading; lots of modeler wishes but very little hard facts based on real observational data by true sea level specialists. It seems that the authors involved in this chapter were chosen not because of their deep knowledge in the subject, but rather because they should say what the climate model had predicted. This chapter has a low and unacceptable standard. It should be completely rewritten by a totally new group of authors chosen among the group of true sea level specialists." [5]

[edit] See also

[edit] References

  1. ^ INQUA commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution (2004-07-25). IPCC again.
  2. ^ http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC0708/S00012.htm New Zealanders being misled by unfounded claims about sea level rises in Scoop Independent News, Sci-tech Monday, 6 August 2007
  3. ^ Sea Level Changes in the Past, Present and in the Near-Future Global Aspects Observations versus Models. IGCP Project No. 437 Puglia 2003 - Final Conference (February 10).
  4. ^ The expected sea level changes in the next century.. Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution, Research Topics (RT) 5; Mörner (2000) (February 9).
  5. ^ a b Mörner, Nils-Axel (2004). "Estimating future sea level changes from past records". Global and Planetary Change 40 (1-2): 49–54. doi:10.1016/S0921-8181(03)00097-3. 
  6. ^ Clague, John J. (Letter written to Yuri Osipov, President of the Russian Academy of Sciences)July 21, 2004, Retrieved February 28, 2008
  7. ^ Maumoon Abdul Gayoom (2006-01-06). Address by his Excellency Mr. Maumoon Abdul Gahoom, President of the Republic of Maldives, at the nineteenth special session of the United Nations General Assembly for the purpose of an overall review and appraisal of the implementation of agenda 21 - 24 June 1997.
  8. ^ Mörner, Nils-Axel; Tooley, Michael; Possnert, Göran (2004). "New perspectives for the future of the Maldives". Global and Planetary Change 40 (1-2): 177–182. doi:10.1016/S0921-8181(03)00108-5. 
  9. ^ Mörner N.-A.; Laborel J., Tooley M., Dawson S., Allison W., Islam M.S., Laborel F., Collina J., Rufin C. (February 10). Sea Level Changes: The Maldives Project Freed From Condemnation to become Flooded. IGCP Project No. 437 Puglia 2003 - Final Conference.

[edit] External links

 This biographical article about a geographer is a stub. You can help Wikipedia by expanding it.