New Zealand general election, 2008
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| 2008 general election New Zealand House of Representatives |
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| Must be held before 15 November 2008 | ||||
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| Leader | Helen Clark | John Key | ||
| Party | Labour | National | ||
| Leader since | 1993 | 2006 | ||
| Leader's seat | Mount Albert | Helensville | ||
The New Zealand general election 2008 will determine the composition of the 49th New Zealand Parliament. It is expected to take place in late 2008, and must be held no later than 15 November 2008. However, the election may take place any time before that if the Prime Minister asks for the House of Representatives to be dissolved before then.
New Zealand parliaments traditionally run a full term, and snap elections are rare; the only three in the last hundred years were in 1951, 1984 and 2002, and the last two were only early by a few months. Convention in New Zealand is that Parliament run for a full three years unless the government is unable to keep the confidence of the House.
The opposition National Party, led by John Key since 27 November 2006, will be the main challenger to the incumbent Labour-led minority government, currently led by the Prime Minister Helen Clark. Minor parties may play a significant role in forming the next government, due to the mixed member proportional voting system used in New Zealand.
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[edit] Election date
Under section 19 of the Constitution Act 1986, "Parliament shall meet not later than 6 weeks after the day fixed for the return of the writs for that election." The writ for an election will have to be issued before the dissolution of the current Parliament. Under section 17 of the Constitution Act, the term of Parliament is "3 years from the day fixed for the return of the writs issued for the last preceding general election of members of the House of Representatives, and no longer." Since the writs for the 2005 election were returned on 7 October 2005,[1] the current Parliament will expire on 7 October 2008, and the final date for the general election will be 15 November 2008.
Under section 139 the final election writs must be returned within 50 days of writs being issued, or by 25 November 2008. This includes all special votes being counted and any judicial recounts being completed. An election on 15 November 2008 would leave only ten days, which is very short for this to be completed. As such the last practical date is likely to be 8 November.[2]
Media commentator Bill Ralston has stated there is speculation the election may be held on 18 October, citing National deputy leader Bill English.[3]
[edit] Referendum proposals
The Citizens Initiated Referenda Act 1993 allows any person to start a petition asking that a national referendum be held. Once the referendum question has been approved by the Clerk of the House of Representatives, a petition must be signed by 10% of registered voters.
There is a movement for a referendum on the controversial Child Discipline Act, which may be held the same date as the election.[4] Supporters of the referendum claim that they have collected enough signatures.[5] The referendum would not be binding; even if successful, the referendum would not repeal the law. The proposed question is:
Should a smack as part of good parental correction be a criminal offence in New Zealand?[6]
The petition was presented to the Clerk of the House of Representatives on 29 February 2008,[6] who vetted the signatures along with the Chief Electoral Officer.[6] Of 280,275 signatures required to force a referendum, only 269,500 were confirmed—a shortfall of 10,775. A number of signatures were excluded because they were illegible, had incorrect date of birth information, or appeared more than once.[7]
If enough new signatures are collected and confirmed within two months,[7] the Speaker of the House of Representatives will deliver the petition to the Governor-General, who will then approve the date set by the Cabinet for a vote on the referendum and decide whether it will occur by postal voting.
[edit] The 48th Parliament
Following the 2005 general election Labour leader and Prime Minister Helen Clark announced a new coalition agreement that saw the return of her minority government coalition with the Progressives, with confidence-and-supply support from New Zealand First and from United Future. These arrangements gave the Labour-led government a majority of one seat, 61 votes on confidence-and-supply in the 121-seat Parliament. Additionally, the Green Party agreed to abstain on matters of confidence and supply, in return for minor policy concessions.
Traditionally in New Zealand it is rare for an incumbent governing party to win a fourth term. Labour and National have each done so only once, in 1946 and 1969 respectively. However, under the MMP environment this may change, as the formation of government becomes more dependent on the performance of potential coalition parties rather than the two major parties.
National, ACT and the Māori Party are all in opposition, although only the National Party formally constitutes the formal Opposition. However, the Māori Party does co-operate and vote with the government on some issues.
If the Māori Party receives a great enough share of the party votes in 2008 to reach proportionality, or lose one or more electorate seats, there will no longer be an overhang, and the total number of seats in Parliament will be reduced to 120. In order for either of the two major parties to win the election, they would still need to gain the confidence of 61 MPs.
[edit] Current members not standing
The following members of the 48th Parliament are not standing for re-election:
- Tim Barnett
- David Benson-Pope
- Mark Blumsky &
- Brian Connell #
- Bob Clarkson #
- Mark Gosche [8]
- Marian Hobbs #
- Steve Maharey
- Jill Pettis
- Katherine Rich #
- Dover Samuels +
- Clem Simich
- Paul Swain
- Nandor Tanczos + [9]
- Margaret Wilson #
- Dianne Yates
Several of the retiring MPs have attracted comment as it was announced in March 2008 that they are going on government-funded overseas trips; the Speaker's Tour (#), an Inter-Parliamentary Union conference in South Africa (+), or a Commonwealth Parliamentary Association conference in London (&).
Several List MPs elected in 2005 have already resigned, see 48th New Zealand Parliament.
[edit] Marginal seats
At the 2005 election, the following seats were "marginal" (in alphabetical order):
| Constituency | Member of Parliament | Incumbent party | Majority | % | Second place | Elected? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton West | Martin Gallagher | Labour | 825[10] | 0.02% | Tim Macindoe |  |
| Otaki | Darren Hughes | Labour | 382[11] | 0.009% | Nathan Guy |  (List) |
| Rotorua | Steve Chadwick | Labour | 662[12] | 0.02% | Gil Stehbens | |
| Tauranga | Bob Clarkson | National | 730[13] | 0.019% | Winston Peters | (List) |
[edit] Boundary changes
The boundaries of New Zealand's parliamentary electorates were altered following the 2006 Census; the large growth in population between censuses lead to significant boundary changes, particularly in Auckland, the area around Christchurch and the central North Island. In May 2007, the Representation Commission announced the boundary changes [14] to be made for the next Parliament, with the boundaries being finalised in September 2007.
The Commission announced that a new seat would be created in Auckland, bringing the number of constituencies to seventy. The original intention was for the new seat to be named "Howick" (after the Auckland suburb), which would have included parts of the existing Pakuranga, Manukau East and Clevedon electorates. After strong objections were made by Pakuranga electors to the proposed changes which would have seen the inclusion of the population centres Panmure, Point England and Glen Innes into the electorate, Pakuranga's boundaries were left much the same, the Commission opting to alleviate population pressures by moving the the Auckland City suburb of Otahuhu into Manukau East. The new seat eventually created was named Botany to reflect its focus on the growing population centres of Botany Downs-Dannemora. On paper, Botany is considered to be a safe National seat.
Even though the number of South Island electorates is fixed, the decline in the population of electorates south of Christchurch has resulted in the boundaries of electorates from Invercargill north to Rakaia shifting northwards. The seats of Aoraki, Otago, Rakaia and Banks Peninsula were all pulled towards Christchurch, and renamed Rangitata, Waitaki, Selwyn and Port Hills respectively. Other seats in the lower South Island increased dramatically in size.
As a result of the boundary changes, the following seats are now considered marginal:
- Hamilton East (currently held by National MP David Bennett) is considered vulnerable to recapture by Labour. This seat has changed party frequently in recent years.
- Rotorua (currently held by Labour MP Steve Chadwick) is considered vulnerable to capture by National.
- Taupo (currently held by Labour MP Mark Burton is considered vulnerable to capture by National, especially with the inclusion of National-leaning Cambridge.
- Rangitata (currently held by National MP Jo Goodhew and formerly known as Aoraki) is considered vulnerable to recapture by Labour.
[edit] Polling
See: Opinion polling for the New Zealand general election, 2008
[edit] Candidates
See: Candidates in the New Zealand general election 2008 by electorate
[edit] See also
[edit] References
- ^ New Zealand Electoral Commission: Post-election deadlines - Election '05 Source
- ^ Kiwiblog[1]
- ^ October a favourite poll date. New Zealand Herald (17 May 2008). Retrieved on 2008-05-17.
- ^ Ruth Laugesen (27 January 2008). Referendum looms on smacking law. Sunday Star Times. Retrieved on 2008-02-21.
- ^ The Kiwi Party (21 February 2008). 300,000 and still counting!. Scoop.co.nz. Retrieved on 2008-02-21.
- ^ a b c Anti-smacking law petition handed to Parliament. TV3 (25 April 2008). Retrieved on 2008-04-25.
- ^ a b Tracey Watkins (29 April 2008). Smacking petition falls short. The Dominion Post. Retrieved on 2008-04-29.
- ^ Dominion Post 30 May 2008 page A4
- ^ Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand (17 January 2008). Nandor not standing in 2008 election. Scoop.co.nz. Retrieved on 2007-01-17.
- ^ Official Count Results - Hamilton West
- ^ Official Count Results - Otaki
- ^ Official Count Results - Rotorua
- ^ Official Count Results - Tauranga
- ^ New Zealand Herald. Auckland to get an extra seat in Parliament.
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