New Zealand general election, 2005

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2005 general election
New Zealand House of Representatives
17 September 2005
Government Opposition
Leader Helen Clark Don Brash
Party Labour National
Leader since 1993 2003
Leader's seat Mount Albert None (List candidate)

The 2005 New Zealand general election took place on 17 September 2005 and determined the composition of the 48th New Zealand Parliament. No single party or recognised bloc won a majority in the unicameral House of Representatives, but the Labour Party of Prime Minister Helen Clark secured two more seats than its closest rival, the National Party of Dr Don Brash. Most of the other parliamentary parties polled worse than in the previous election, losing votes and seats, but the newly-formed Māori Party took four electorate seats, including three from Labour.

Brash deferred conceding defeat until 1 October 2005, when the inclusion of special votes caused National's tally of seats to drop from 49 on election-night to 48.

The election saw a strong recovery by National: it won 21 more seats than at the 2002 election, when it had suffered its worst result since it first fought a general election in 1938. Despite this resurgence, National failed to displace Labour as the largest party in Parliament. National's gains apparently came mainly at the expense of smaller parties, while Labour won only two seats fewer than in 2002.

On 17 October 2005 Clark announced a new coalition agreement that saw the return of her minority government coalition with the Progressive Party, with confidence-and-supply support from New Zealand First and from United Future. New Zealand First parliamentary leader Winston Peters and United Future parliamentary leader Peter Dunne became ministers of the Crown, though outside Cabinet. Peters became Minister of Foreign Affairs while Dunne became Minister of Revenue. The Green Party, which had thrown its weight behind Labour before the election, received no cabinet post (see below), but gained several concessions from the coalition on matters such as energy and transport.

Contents

[edit] Official election results table

e•d Summary of the 17 September 2005 New Zealand House of Representatives election results
Parties Votes % Change Electorate
seats		 List seats Total +/-
New Zealand Labour Party 935,319 41.1 -0.2 31 19 50 -2
New Zealand National Party 889,813 39.1 +18.0 31 17 48 +21
New Zealand First 130,115 5.7 -4.7 0 7 7 -6
Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand 120,521 5.3 -1.7 0 6 6 -3
Māori Party 48,263 2.1 +2.1 4 0 4 +4
United Future New Zealand 60,860 2.7 -4.0 1 2 3 -5
ACT New Zealand 34,469 1.5 -5.6 1 1 2 -7
New Zealand Progressive Party 26,441 1.2 -0.5 1 0 1 -1
Other parties 29,828 1.3 0 0 0 0
Total 2,275,629 100.0 69 52 121 +1
Informal votes 10,561
Total votes cast 2,286,190

The election saw an 81% voter turnout.[1]

The results of the election give a Gallagher index of disproportionality of 1.11.

Image:NewZealandElectorates2005-Labeled.PNG

For further details of results (including results by constituency) see New Zealand general election, 2005: in depth results

[edit] Analysis of results

Going into the election, Labour had assurances of support from the Greens (six seats in 2005, down three from 2002) and from the Progressives (one seat, down one). This three-party bloc won 57 seats, leaving Clark four seats short of the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 121-seat Parliament (decreased from the expected 122 because the final results gave the Māori Party only one overhang seat, after it appeared to win two overhang seats on election night). On October 5 the Māori Party began a series of hui to decide whom to support. That same day reports emerged that a meeting between Helen Clark and Māori co-leader Tariana Turia on October 3 had already ruled out a formal coalition between Labour and the Māori Party. Māori Party representatives also held discussions with National representatives, but most New Zealanders thought the Māori Party more likely to give confidence-supply support to a Labour-dominated government because its supporters apparently heavily backed Labour in the party vote.

Had Turia and her co-leader Pita Sharples opted to join a Labour-Progressive-Green coalition, Clark would have had sufficient support to govern with support from a grouping of four parties (Labour, Green, Māori and Progressive). Without the Māori Party, Labour needed the support of New Zealand First (seven seats, down six) and United Future (three seats, down five) to form a government. New Zealand First said it would support (or at least abstain from opposing in confidence-motions) the party with the most seats. Clark sought from New Zealand First a positive commitment rather than abstention. United Future, which had supported the previous Labour-Progressive minority government in confidence and supply, said it would talk first to the party with the most seats about support or coalition. Both New Zealand First and United Future said they would not support a Labour-led coalition which included Greens in Cabinet posts. However, United Future indicated it could support a government where the Greens gave supply-and-confidence votes.[2]

Brash had only one possible scenario to become Prime Minister: a centre-right coalition with United Future and ACT (two seats, down seven). Given the election results, however, such a coalition would have required the confidence-and-supply votes of both New Zealand First and the Māori Party. This appeared highly unlikely on several counts. New Zealand First's involvement in such a coalition would have run counter to Peters' promise to deal with the biggest party, and Turia and Sharples would have had difficulty in justifying supporting National after their supporters' overwhelming support for Labour in the party vote. Turia and Sharples probably remembered the severe mauling New Zealand First suffered in 1999. (Many of its supporters in 1996 believed they had voted to get rid of National, only to have Peters go into coalition with National; New Zealand First has never really recovered.) Even without this to consider, National had indicated it would abolish the Maori seats if it won power.

The new government as eventually formed consisted of Labour and Progressive in coalition, while New Zealand First and United Future entered agreements of support on confidence and supply motions. In an unprecedented move, Peters and Dunne became Foreign Affairs Minister and Revenue Minister, respectively, but remained outside cabinet and had no obligatory cabinet collective responsibility on votes outside their respective portfolios.

Possible government setups

[edit] Background

Election billboards advertise the parties and candidates standing nationwide and in each electorate
Election billboards advertise the parties and candidates standing nationwide and in each electorate

The 2002 election had seen the governing Labour Party retain office. However, its junior coalition partner, the Alliance, collapsed, leaving Labour to form a coalition with the new Progressive Coalition, formed by former Alliance leader Jim Anderton. This coalition then obtained an agreement of support ("confidence and supply") from United Future, enabling it to form a stable minority government. The National Party, Labour's main opponents, suffered a considerable defeat, winning only 21% of the vote (22.5% of the seats).

The collapse of National's vote led ultimately to the replacement of its Parliamentary party leader Bill English with parliamentary newcomer Don Brash on 28 October 2003. Brash began an aggressive campaign against the Labour-dominated government. A major boost to this campaign came with his "Orewa speech" (27 January 2004), in which he attacked the Labour-dominated government for giving "special treatment" to the Māori population, particularly over the foreshore and seabed controversy. This resulted in a surge of support for the National Party, although most polls indicated that this subsequently subsided. National also announced it would not stand candidates in the Māori seats, with some smaller parties following suit.

The foreshore-and-seabed controversy also resulted in the establishment of the Māori Party in July 2004. The Māori Party hoped to break Labour's traditional (and then current) dominance in the Māori seats, just as New Zealand First had done in the 1996 election.

A large number of so-called "minor" parties also contested the election. These included Destiny New Zealand (the political branch of the Destiny Church) and the Direct Democracy Party.

[edit] Polls

A series of opinion polls published in June 2005 indicated that the National Party had moved ahead of Labour for the first time since June 2004. Commentators speculated[citation needed] that a prominent billboard campaign may have contributed to this. Some said[citation needed] the National Party had peaked too early. The polls released throughout July showed once more an upward trend for Labour, with Labour polling about 6% above National. The release by the National Party of a series of tax-reform proposals in August 2005 appeared to correlate with an increase in its ratings in the polls.

Direct comparisons between the following polls have no statistical validity:

Poll Date Labour National NZ First Greens
One News Colmar Brunton 29 August 43% 40% 5% 7%
3 News TNS 1 September 39% 41% 6% 6%
Herald DigiPoll 2 September 43.4% 39.1% 6.6% 5%
Fairfax NZ/ACNeilsen 3 September 41% 44% <5% 5%
One News Colmar Brunton 4 September 38% 46% 4.6% 6%
3 News TNS 7 September 45% 36% 5% 7%
Herald Digipoll 8 September 40.6% 40.1% 7.1% 5.6%
Herald Digipoll 11 September 42.1% 38.5% 5% 6%
ACNielsen-Sunday Star-Times 11 September 37% 44% 5% 6%
One News Colmar Brunton 11 September 39% 41% 6% 6%
Fairfax ACNielsen 14 September 37% 43% 7% 6%
3 News TNS 15 September 40.5% 38.7% 6.8% 6.9%
TVNZ Colmar Brunton 15 September 38% 41% 5.5% 5.1%
Herald Digipoll 16 September 44.6% 37.4% 4.5% 4.6 %

No single political event can explain the significant differences between most of these polls over the period between them. They show either volatility in the electorate and/or flaws in the methods of polling. In the later polls, the issue of National's knowledge of a series of pamphlets (distributed by members of the Exclusive Brethren and attacking the Green and Labour parties) appeared not to have reduced National Party support.

[edit] Candidates

For lists of candidates in the 2005 election see:

[edit] Major policy platforms

[edit] Labour Party

The Labour Party platform[3] included:

[edit] National Party

The National Party campaigned on the platform of (National Party Press Release):

  • taxation: lowering income-tax rates
  • removing references to the Treaty of Waitangi from existing legislation; and resolving all treaty claims amicably by 2010
  • making student-loan repayments and $5000 of pre-school childcare costs tax-deductable
  • "reworking" the New Zealand Resource Management Act to make development easier
  • "removing excessive bureaucracy" in the education system, in particular by overhauling the NCEA, and by re-introducing "bulk funding" of schools
  • abolishing early parole for violent criminals. (As of 2005 most prisoners became eligible for parole after serving one-third of their sentence)
  • a return to "market rents" for state-housing tenants, including a system of paying housing-subsidies (for the poorest tenants) directly to private landlords
  • part public/private ownership of the public health system
  • a "work-for-the-dole" scheme
  • abolishing the Maori electorates

[edit] Voting

Postal voting for New Zealanders abroad began on 31 August. Ballot voting took place on Saturday 17 September, from 9am to 7pm. The Chief Electoral Office released a provisional result at 12.05am on 18 September.

[edit] Party funding

New Zealand operates on a system whereby the Electoral Commission allocates funding for advertising on television and on radio. Parties must use their own money for all other forms of advertising, but may not use any of their own money for television or radio advertising.

Party Funding
Labour $1,100,000
National $900,000
ACT $200,000
Greens $200,000
NZ First $200,000
United Future $200,000
Māori Party $125,000
Progressives $75,000
Alliance $20,000
Christian Heritage NZ $20,000
Destiny NZ $20,000
Libertarianz $20,000
99 MP Party* $10,000
Beneficiaries Party* $10,000
Democrats $10,000
National Front* $10,000
New Zealand F.R.P.P.* $10,000
Patriot Party* $10,000
The Republic of New Zealand Party $10,000

*Must register for funding
Source: Electoral Commission

[edit] Controversies

Main article: 2005 New Zealand election funding controversy

Police investigated Labour (and five other political parties) for alleged breaches of election-spending rules relating to the 2005 election, but brought no prosecutions,[4] determining that "there was insufficient evidence to indicate that an offence under s214b of the Electoral Act had been committed."[5] Additionally, claims[weasel words] allege Labour used over $400,000 of taxpayers' money to produce a number of pamphlets and "pledge cards" promoting Labour. The police decided not to lay a prosecution, preferring instead to warn Labour that similar future actions would risk prosecution, because it seemed clear that a number of other parties had also used similar tactics and it would have appeared unfair to single Labour out.

The Auditor-General has also investigated publicly-funded party-advertising for the 2005 election, with a leaked preliminary finding of much of the spending as unlawful. Observers expected the release of a final report in October 2006.[6]

[edit] References

[edit] Footnotes

  1. ^ General Statistics
  2. ^ United's 'Mr Reasonable' makes withering attack on Green Party - 19 Sep 2005 - Election 2005 Event
  3. ^ Labour web site
  4. ^ Labour escapes charges on pledge card but case found - 18 Mar 2006 - NZ Herald: New Zealand National news
  5. ^ [1][dead link]
  6. ^ Report on election spending almost complete - 11 Sep 2006 - NZ Herald: New Zealand National news
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