New Hampshire primary, 2008

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Elections in New Hampshire
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New Hampshire Presidential Primaries: Democratic: 2000  · 2004  · 2008 Republican: 2000  · 2004  · 2008 Local: Dixville Notch · Hart's Location
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The New Hampshire primary of 2008 was held on January 8, 2008 to determine the allocation of New Hampshire's delegates to the national presidential nominating conventions, to be held later in the year. As one of the first electoral events in the 2008 U.S. presidential election campaign (having been preceded by the Iowa caucuses), it provides an early indication of the likely party nominees for the United States presidential election of 2008.

Featuring contested races in both major parties, it drew a record 529,542 votes [2], breaking the previous record by more than 25 percent.

Contents 1 Scheduling 2 Process 3 Results 3.1 Early voting 3.2 Republicans 3.3 Democrats 4 Recount 4.1 Discrepancy between pre-election polls and results 4.2 Discrepancy between hand-counted and Diebold votes 4.3 Discrepancy between exit polls and results 5 Notes 6 References

[edit] Scheduling

Following the 2004 presidential election, some elements in the Democratic Party proposed new primary calendars that would end the New Hampshire primary's first-in-the-nation status. The Commission on Presidential Nomination Timing and Scheduling issued a report at the end of 2005, recommending adding several caucuses ahead of New Hampshire's primary. The recommendations were approved by the full Democratic National Committee. However, New Hampshire state law requires the primary to take place seven days before any other "similar contest," which state officials have always interpreted to mean any contest other than Iowa's caucus. The Republican Party, meanwhile, has maintained its support of the current primary calendar. New Hampshire officials indicate they will force candidates who want to campaign in the state to follow New Hampshire rules and skip any primary that is "too close" in time. It is unlikely that a serious candidate could risk skipping New Hampshire with its vast media attention.

Despite many questions surrounding the 2008 primary calendar, New Hampshire still held the earliest primary on January 8, five days after the Iowa caucuses. Michigan held the following primary on January 15, seven days after New Hampshire's, with South Carolina and Nevada following shortly afterward.

[edit] Process

New Hampshire uses a modified closed primary, where affiliated voters must vote their party's primary, but unaffiliated voters may choose to declare a party when signing in, and then fill out a card to revert back to undeclared before leaving. Failure to do so means that a voter has changed party affiliation. In addition, New Hampshire allows same day registration for new voters.^[1] Filing deadline for candidates was November 2, 2007.^[2]

[edit] Results

[edit] Early voting

The two early voting districts, Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, opened their polls at 12:00 AM on election day. Polls closed shortly after when all registered voters had finished. These districts were the first in the nation to release their results.

Dixville Notch

Dem. primary: (10 votes)[3]	Rep. primary: (7 votes)[3]
Barack Obama - 7	John McCain - 4
John Edwards - 2	Mitt Romney - 2
Bill Richardson - 1	Rudy Giuliani - 1

Hart's Location

Dem. primary: (13 votes)[4]	Rep. primary: (16 votes)[4]
Barack Obama - 9	John McCain - 6
Hillary Clinton - 3	Mike Huckabee - 5
John Edwards - 1	Ron Paul - 4
	Mitt Romney - 1

All polls in New Hampshire closed on January 8, 2008 at 8:00 pm EST. Results are certified by the NH Secretary of State the day following the vote. The record turnout of 527,373 was unprecedented and many towns ran out of ballots. A total of 850,836 registered voters were reported - 26% Democratic, 30% Republican, and 44% Independent.

[edit] Republicans

Main article: New Hampshire Republican primary, 2008

Mitt Romney declared roughly 45 minutes after the polls closed at 8:00 pm EST that he won "another silver."

As of 11:28 am EDT on January 9, 99% of all precincts had reported. The votes were as follows:

• John McCain with 37% of the vote and an estimated 7 delegates;
• Mitt Romney with 31% of the vote and an estimated 4 delegates;
• Mike Huckabee with 11% of the vote and an estimated 1 delegates;
• Rudy Giuliani with 9% of the vote and an estimated 0 delegates.
• Ron Paul with 8% of the vote and an estimated 0 delegates.
• Fred Thompson with 1% of the vote and an estimated 0 delegates.
• Duncan Hunter with 1% of the vote and an estimated 0 delegates.

[edit] Democrats

Main article: New Hampshire Democratic primary, 2008

As of 11:28 am EST, 99% of all precincts had reported. The votes were as follows:

Hillary Clinton with 39% of the vote and an estimated 9 delegates;

Barack Obama with 36% of the vote and an estimated 9 delegates;

John Edwards with 17% of the vote and an estimated 4 delegates;

Bill Richardson with 5% of the vote and an estimated 0 delegates.

^[5]

[edit] Recount

Because of concerns raised by Democratic candidate Dennis Kucinich and Republican candidate Albert Howard, New Hampshire is conducting a recount of Democratic ballots, starting January 16, 2008. The process is expected to take several weeks. [3]

Kucinich asked for the recount due to "unexplained disparities between hand-counted ballots and machine-counted ballots." ^{[6] [7]}

The New Hampshire Department of State has made available recount results from Hillsborough county. ^[8]

[edit] Discrepancy between pre-election polls and results

In a USA Today/Gallup poll taken on January 7, Obama had a 13 point lead over Clinton. ^[9] In a CNN poll on the same day, Obama had a 9 point lead. ^[10] Clinton's internal polling showed that Obama had an 11 point lead, whereas Obama's internal polling showed that he had a 14 point lead. ^[11] Gary Langer, director of polling for ABC News, claims that "It is simply unprecedented for so many polls to have been so wrong." ^[12] Columnist Robert C. Koehler writes that "considering the notorious unreliability, not to mention hackability, of Diebold machines — the media might have hoisted a few red flags in the coverage." ^[13]

Professor Jon A. Krosnick, of Stanford University, shows that Clinton appeared before Obama in every ballot, rather than in random order. He estimates that this may constitute 3% of the difference between Obama and Clinton. ^[14] Other possible explanations of the discrepancy include the emotional interview of Hillary Clinton the day before the primary (similar to the "Dean Scream"). Also, it could be that Independent voters, expecting an easy victory for Obama, instead switched to the Republican ballot and voted for McCain over Romney. Yet, the polls do not support this. McCain led Romney by 4 points in both of the previously referenced January 7 polls. He won the primary by 5 points, for only a 1 point swing. The Associated Press reported that "six in 10 independents opted for the Democratic contest and Obama led among them." ^[15] Additionally, some pundits claim that the Bradley effect led to the unexpected turnout.^{[citation needed]} However, it is unclear why it would effect New Hampshire but not Iowa, as Obama did several points better in Iowa than he did in the final polls. ^[16] It is also unclear why the Bradley effect would affect precincts with machine counts and not those with hand counts. ^[17] Some pundits have also argued that residents of the larger towns (which are the ones with voting machines) favored Clinton.^{[citation needed]} However, in Iowa, Obama did better in cities than in rural towns. ^[18]

[edit] Discrepancy between hand-counted and Diebold votes

Several blogs have analyzed the votes by precinct, made available by Black Box Voting, The Boston Globe, the New Hampshire Department of State, and The Politico ^{[19] [20] [21] [22]}, and noted that Obama led Clinton in both rural and urban precincts that used hand counting, but Clinton led Obama in precincts that used machine counting. Several news sources, including Citizens for Legitimate Government, The Dallas Morning News, Malta Star, and Slashdot have covered their analyses. ^{[23] [24] [25] [26]}

[edit] Discrepancy between exit polls and results

On January 9 Chris Matthews said on Hardball that the MSNBC exit polls showed Obama 8 points ahead of Clinton. ^[27] Early Fox News exit polls showed Obama 7 points ahead, ^[28] but the final results had Clinton a winner by 2.25 points. ^[29]

[edit] Notes

[edit] References

• Brereton, Charles (1987). First in the Nation: New Hampshire and the Premier Presidential Primary. Portsmouth, N.H.: Peter E. Randall. ISBN 0-914339-20-6. 
• Casey, Susan Berry (1986). Hart and Soul: Gary Hart's New Hampshire Odyssey... and Beyond. Concord, N.H.: NHI Press. ISBN 0-9617115-0-7. 
• Cash, Kevin (1975). Who the Hell Is William Loeb?. Manchester, N.H.: Amoskeag Press. 
• Palmer, Niall A. (1997). The New Hampshire Primary and the American Electoral Process. Westport, Conn.: Praeger. ISBN 0-275-95569-9.  online version
• Scala, Dante J. (2003). Stormy Weather: The New Hampshire Primary and Presidential Politics. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. ISBN 0-312-29622-3. 
• Germond, Jack. "A Cold, Hard Look", Washingtonian, January 1, 2008. Retrieved on 2008-01-09.