National Intelligence Estimate

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National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) are United States federal government documents that are the authoritative assessment of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) on intelligence related to a particular national security issue. NIEs are produced by the National Intelligence Council and express the coordinated judgments of the United States Intelligence Community, the group of 16 U.S. intelligence agencies. NIEs are classified documents prepared for policymakers.

Contents 1 About 2 November 2007 NIE 3 See also 4 References 5 External links

[edit] About

NIEs are considered to be "estimative" products, in that they present what intelligence analysts estimate may be the course of future events. Coordination of NIEs involves not only trying to resolve any inter-agency differences, but also assigning confidence levels to the key judgments and rigorously evaluating the sourcing for them. Each NIE is reviewed and approved for dissemination by the National Intelligence Board (NIB), which comprises the DNI and other senior leaders within the Intelligence Community.

National Intelligence Estimates were first produced in 1950 by the Office of National Estimates. This office was superseded in 1973 by National Intelligence Officers. This group of experts became the National Intelligence Council in 1979. In the early years, the National Intelligence Council reported to the Director of Central Intelligence in his role as the head of the Intelligence Community; however, in 2005, the Director of National Intelligence became the head of the Intelligence Community.

[edit] November 2007 NIE

The November 2007 United States National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) judged that Tehran halted an alleged nuclear weapons program in fall 2003, and that it remained halted as of mid-2007. The estimate further judged that US intelligence did not know whether Iran intended "to develop nuclear weapons," but that "Iran probably would be technically capable of producing enough HEU [highly enriched uranium] for a weapon sometime during the 2010-2015 time frame" if it chose to do so.^[1] Iran continues to maintain its nuclear program is peaceful.^[2]

[edit] See also

• Intellipedia

[edit] References

[edit] External links

• Council on Foreign Relations - October 2002 NIE on "Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction Programs"
• Washington Post August 2, 2005 - NIE says Iran is 10 years from a nuclear bomb
• Washington Post December 5, 2007 - NIE: Iran halted a covert nuclear weapons program in 2003
• New York Times September 24, 2006 Spy Agencies Say Iraq War Worsens Terror Threat - National Intelligence Estimate "Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States"
• Intelligence Estimate Warns Iraq Could Get Worse
• Iraq’s Continuing Program for Weapons of Mass Destruction, key judgments from NIE produced in October, 2002.
• Iraq National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) - "Prospects for Iraq's Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead" Unclassified Key Judgments - Released on Friday, February 2, 2007.
• "Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States" - Declassified version from The Office of the Director of National Intelligence
• The Primary Purpose of National Estimating by Harold P. Ford, a wholly theoretical example of what might have been published prior to the attack on Pearl Harbor.
• A Crucial Estimate Relived by Sherman Kent, a reevaluation of a 1962 NIE proclaiming the Soviet Union would not put offensive weapons in Cuba.