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The Mackerras federal election pendulum, 2006 (by Malcolm Mackerras) shows the state of the major political parties ahead of the 2007 Australian federal election. The table shows seats in the Australian House of Representatives arranged in the form of a Mackerras Pendulum based on their 2004 federal election two-party preferred result. Some seats in New South Wales and Queensland underwent a redistribution in 2006, their margins have been recalculated due to this.
MPs shown in italics are not contesting the 2007 election. Gwydir, held by John Anderson for the Nationals, was abolished in the last redistribution and is not shown. Notionally government-held seats are shown on the left, with other seats shown on the right.
[edit] Very safe seats
[edit] Safe seats
Seat |
MP |
Party |
Margin |
Seat |
MP |
Party |
Margin |
Barker, SA |
Patrick Secker |
Liberal |
19.9% |
|
|
|
|
Moncrieff, Qld |
Steve Ciobo |
Liberal |
19.9% |
|
|
|
|
Groom, Qld |
Ian Macfarlane |
Liberal |
19.0% |
|
|
|
|
Parkes, NSW |
John Cobb |
National |
18.8% |
|
|
|
|
Bradfield, NSW |
Brendan Nelson |
Liberal |
17.5% |
|
|
|
|
Indi, Vic |
Sophie Mirabella |
Liberal |
16.3% |
|
|
|
|
Mackellar, NSW |
Bronwyn Bishop |
Liberal |
15.5% |
|
|
|
|
Farrer, NSW |
Sussan Ley |
Liberal |
15.4% |
|
|
|
|
Fadden, Qld |
David Jull |
Liberal |
15.3% |
|
|
|
|
Curtin, WA |
Julie Bishop |
Liberal |
14.6% |
|
|
|
|
Lyne, NSW |
Mark Vaile |
National |
14.1% |
|
|
|
|
McPherson, Qld |
Margaret May |
Liberal |
14.0% |
|
|
|
|
Grey, SA |
Barry Wakelin |
Liberal |
13.8% |
|
|
|
|
Cook, NSW |
Bruce Baird |
Liberal |
13.7% |
|
|
|
|
Mayo, SA |
Alexander Downer |
Liberal |
13.6% |
|
|
|
|
Fairfax, Qld |
Alex Somlyay |
Liberal |
13.3% |
|
|
|
|
Aston, Vic |
Chris Pearce |
Liberal |
13.2% |
|
|
|
|
Fisher, Qld |
Peter Slipper |
Liberal |
13.0% |
|
|
|
|
Forde, Qld |
Kay Elson |
Liberal |
13.0% |
|
|
|
|
Hume, NSW |
Alby Schultz |
Liberal |
12.9% |
|
|
|
|
Pearce, WA |
Judith Moylan |
Liberal |
12.9% |
|
|
|
|
Wannon, Vic |
David Hawker |
Liberal |
12.4% |
Sydney NSW |
Tanya Plibersek |
Labor |
17.3% |
Wide Bay, Qld |
Warren Truss |
National |
12.2% |
Wills, Vic |
Kelvin Thomson |
Labor |
16.9% |
Berowra, NSW |
Philip Ruddock |
Liberal |
12.2% |
Blaxland, NSW |
Michael Hatton |
Labor |
15.3% |
Tangney, WA |
Dennis Jensen |
Liberal |
11.8% |
Gellibrand, Vic |
Nicola Roxon |
Labor |
15.0% |
Casey, Vic |
Tony Smith |
Liberal |
11.4% |
Gorton, Vic |
Brendan O'Connor |
Labor |
14.9% |
Warringah, NSW |
Tony Abbott |
Liberal |
11.3% |
Scullin, Vic |
Harry Jenkins |
Labor |
14.8% |
Flinders, Vic |
Greg Hunt |
Liberal |
11.1% |
Watson, NSW |
Tony Burke |
Labor |
14.6% |
Macarthur, NSW |
Patrick Farmer |
Liberal |
11.1% |
New England, NSW[1] |
Tony Windsor |
Independent |
14.2% |
Greenway, NSW |
Louise Markus |
Liberal |
11.0% |
Throsby, NSW |
Jennie George |
Labor |
13.9% |
Moore, WA |
Mal Washer |
Liberal |
10.8% |
Fowler, NSW |
Julia Irwin |
Labor |
13.5% |
Menzies, Vic |
Kevin Andrews |
Liberal |
10.7% |
Fraser, ACT |
Bob McMullan |
Labor |
13.3% |
Forrest, WA |
Geoff Prosser |
Liberal |
10.5% |
Denison, Tas |
Duncan Kerr |
Labor |
13.3% |
Kennedy, Qld[2] |
Bob Katter |
Independent |
10.5% |
Port Adelaide, SA |
Rod Sawford |
Labor |
12.9% |
Ryan, Qld |
Michael Johnson |
Liberal |
10.4% |
Chifley, NSW |
Roger Price |
Labor |
12.1% |
Leichhardt, Qld |
Warren Entsch |
Liberal |
10.3% |
Reid, NSW |
Laurie Ferguson |
Labor |
12.0% |
Dawson, Qld |
De-Anne Kelly |
National |
10.2% |
Cunningham, NSW |
Sharon Bird |
Labor |
11.7% |
North Sydney, NSW |
Joe Hockey |
Liberal |
10.0% |
Hunter, NSW |
Joel Fitzgibbon |
Labor |
11.2% |
[edit] Fairly safe seats
Seat |
MP |
Party |
Margin |
Seat |
MP |
Party |
Margin |
Goldstein, Vic |
Andrew Robb |
Liberal |
10.0% |
|
|
|
|
Kooyong, Vic |
Petro Georgiou |
Liberal |
9.8% |
|
|
|
|
Gilmore, NSW |
Joanna Gash |
Liberal |
9.5% |
Canberra, ACT |
Annette Ellis |
Labor |
9.6% |
Canning, WA |
Don Randall |
Liberal |
9.5% |
Maribyrnong, Vic |
Bob Sercombe |
Labor |
9.5% |
Dunkley, Vic |
Bruce Billson |
Liberal |
9.4% |
Shortland, NSW |
Jill Hall |
Labor |
9.3% |
Dickson, Qld |
Peter Dutton |
Liberal |
9.1% |
Lalor, Vic |
Julia Gillard |
Labor |
8.8% |
Bowman, Qld |
Andrew Laming |
Liberal |
8.9% |
Newcastle, NSW |
Sharon Grierson |
Labor |
8.7% |
Hughes, NSW |
Danna Vale |
Liberal |
8.8% |
Kingsford Smith, NSW |
Peter Garrett |
Labor |
8.6% |
Hinkler, Qld |
Paul Neville |
National |
8.8% |
Griffith, Qld |
Kevin Rudd |
Labor |
8.5% |
Higgins, Vic |
Peter Costello |
Liberal |
8.8% |
Charlton, NSW |
Kelly Hoare |
Labor |
8.4% |
Petrie, Qld |
Teresa Gambaro |
Liberal |
7.9% |
Calwell, Vic |
Maria Vamvakinou |
Labor |
8.2% |
Flynn, Qld[3] |
new seat |
National |
7.9% |
Calare, NSW[4] |
Peter Andren |
Independent |
7.9% |
Gippsland, Vic |
Peter McGauran |
National |
7.7% |
Fremantle, WA |
Carmen Lawrence |
Labor |
7.8% |
Robertson, NSW |
Jim Lloyd |
Liberal |
6.9% |
Lingiari, NT |
Warren Snowdon |
Labor |
7.7% |
Paterson, NSW |
Bob Baldwin |
Liberal |
6.8% |
Franklin, Tas |
Harry Quick |
Labor |
7.6% |
Sturt, SA |
Christopher Pyne |
Liberal |
6.8% |
Barton, NSW |
Robert McClelland |
Labor |
7.6% |
Longman, Qld |
Mal Brough |
Liberal |
6.6% |
Hotham, Vic |
Simon Crean |
Labor |
7.4% |
Cowper, NSW |
Luke Hartsuyker |
National |
6.6% |
Oxley, QLD |
Bernie Ripoll |
Labor |
7.2% |
McEwen, Vic |
Fran Bailey |
Liberal |
6.4% |
Werriwa, NSW |
Chris Hayes[5] |
Labor |
7.1% |
Kalgoorlie, WA |
Barry Haase |
Liberal |
6.3% |
Prospect, NSW |
Chris Bowen |
Labor |
6.9% |
Herbert, Qld |
Peter Lindsay |
Liberal |
6.1% |
Perth, WA |
Stephen Smith |
Labor |
6.7% |
[edit] Marginal seats
Seat |
MP |
Party |
Margin |
Seat |
MP |
Party |
Margin |
La Trobe, Vic |
Jason Wood |
Liberal |
5.8% |
Corio, Vic |
Gavan O'Connor |
Labor |
5.6% |
Blair, Qld |
Cameron Thompson |
Liberal |
5.7% |
Lilley, Qld |
Wayne Swan |
Labor |
5.4% |
Page, NSW |
Ian Causley |
National |
5.5% |
Brand, WA |
Kim Beazley |
Labor |
4.7% |
Boothby, SA |
Andrew Southcott |
Liberal |
5.4% |
Jagajaga, Vic |
Jenny Macklin |
Labor |
4.4% |
Corangamite, Vic |
Stewart McArthur |
Liberal |
5.3% |
Brisbane, Qld |
Arch Bevis |
Labor |
4.0% |
McMillan, Vic |
Russell Broadbent |
Liberal |
5.0% |
Capricornia, Qld |
Kirsten Livermore |
Labor |
3.8% |
Deakin, Vic |
Phillip Barresi |
Liberal |
5.0% |
Melbourne Ports, Vic |
Michael Danby |
Labor |
3.7% |
Dobell, NSW |
Ken Ticehurst |
Liberal |
4.8% |
Lyons, Tas |
Dick Adams |
Labor |
3.7% |
Bennelong, NSW |
John Howard |
Liberal |
4.0% |
Bruce, Vic |
Alan Griffin |
Labor |
3.5% |
Eden-Monaro, NSW |
Gary Nairn |
Liberal |
3.3% |
Banks, NSW |
Daryl Melham |
Labor |
3.3% |
Lindsay, NSW |
Jackie Kelly |
Liberal |
2.9% |
Rankin, Qld |
Craig Emerson |
Labor |
3.0% |
Moreton, Qld |
Gary Hardgrave |
Liberal |
2.8% |
Lowe, NSW |
John Murphy |
Labor |
3.1% |
Solomon, NT |
Dave Tollner |
CLP |
2.8% |
Chisholm, Vic |
Anna Burke |
Labor |
2.7% |
Bass, Tas |
Michael Ferguson |
Liberal |
2.6% |
Ballarat, Vic |
Catherine King |
Labor |
2.2% |
Wentworth, NSW |
Malcolm Turnbull |
Liberal |
2.6% |
Holt, Vic |
Anthony Byrne |
Labor |
1.5% |
Stirling, WA |
Michael Keenan |
Liberal |
2.0% |
Isaacs, Vic |
Ann Corcoran |
Labor |
1.5% |
Hasluck, WA |
Stuart Henry |
Liberal |
1.8% |
Richmond, NSW |
Justine Elliot |
Labor |
1.5% |
Parramatta, NSW[6] |
Julie Owens |
Labor |
-1.1% |
Adelaide, SA |
Kate Ellis |
Labor |
1.3% |
Braddon, Tas |
Mark Baker |
Liberal |
1.1% |
Bendigo, Vic |
Steve Gibbons |
Labor |
1.0% |
Makin, SA |
Trish Draper |
Liberal |
0.9% |
Cowan, WA |
Graham Edwards |
Labor |
0.8% |
Wakefield, SA |
David Fawcett |
Liberal |
0.7% |
Macquarie, NSW[7] |
Kerry Bartlett |
Liberal |
-0.5% |
Bonner, Qld |
Ross Vasta |
Liberal |
0.6% |
Swan, WA |
Kim Wilkie |
Labor |
0.1% |
Kingston, SA |
Kym Richardson |
Liberal |
0.1% |
Hindmarsh, SA |
Steve Georganas |
Labor |
0.1% |
- ^ Two-candidate preferred margin against National Party candidate shown
- ^ Two-candidate preferred margin against Australian Labor Party candidate shown
- ^ Seat is notionally National.
- ^ Two-candidate preferred margin against Liberal Party candidate shown
- ^ Labor's Mark Latham resigned on January 18, 2005; Hayes won the resulting by-election on March 19.
- ^ After redistribution, seat is notionally Liberal.
- ^ After redistribution, seat is notionally Labor.
[edit] References