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A military disaster is when one side in a battle or war is unexpectedly and soundly defeated, and often changes the course of history. A battle where two forces meet and one side loses without making a major mistake is not a military disaster, that is simply warfare.

A military disaster can range from a strong army losing a major battle against a clearly inferior force, to an army being surprised and decimated by a clearly superior force, to a seemingly evenly matched conflict with an extremely one sided result. A military disaster could be due to bad planning, bad execution, bad weather, general lack of skill or ability, the failure of a new piece of military technology, a major blunder, a brilliant move on the part of the enemy, or simply the unexpected presence of an overwhelming enemy force.

Contents 1 Ancient era 2 Medieval era 3 16th century 4 18th century 5 19th century 6 20th century 7 Further reading 8 See also 9 Factors in favour 9.1 Geographic factors 9.2 Demographic factors 9.3 Political factors 9.4 Economic factors 9.5 Military factors 9.6 Cultural factors 10 Points against the rise of India as a superpower 10.1 Political obstacles 10.2 Economic obstacles 10.3 Social issues 11 See also 12 References 13 External links 14 Factors in favour 14.1 Geographic factors 14.2 Demographic factors 14.3 Political factors 14.4 Economic factors 14.5 Military factors 14.6 Cultural factors 15 Points against the rise of India as a superpower 15.1 Political obstacles 15.2 Economic obstacles 15.3 Social issues 16 See also 17 References 18 External links

[edit] Ancient era

• The Athenian expedition to Syracuse in 415 BC.
• The Battle of Salamis in 480 BC where a huge Persian fleet is defeated by a united Greek force.
• The Battle of Cannae in 216 BC, where Hannibal destroyed the sixteen Roman and Allied legions, led by Lucius Aemilius Paullus and Gaius Terentius Varro. In all, perhaps more than 80% of the entire Roman army was dead or captured (including Paullus himself).
• The Battle of Teutoburg Forest, where German warriors destroyed three Roman legions
• The Battle of Adrianople, in which the emperor Valens was killed while Gothic heavy cavalry ambushed and decimated his Roman heavy infantry.
• The Battle of Guan Du, which the more powerful Yuan Shao army failed to guard its supplies, and was defeated soundly by Cao Cao.

[edit] Medieval era

• The Battle of Yarmuk in 636. The Monophysite Ghassanid contingents in the Byzantine army, brutally persecuted by the Orthodox authorities, defected en masse to the Muslim side thus guaranteeing a Muslim victory.
• The Battle of Hattin in 1187, where overconfident Crusader forces from Jerusalem became trapped in a waterless desert area, and thus became easy prey for the Saracen forces of Salah-ud-din (Saladin)
• The Battle of Stirling Bridge in 1297. English Earl John de Warenne's well-equipped army were trapped on a narrow bridge by William Wallace's 15,000 unarmored, lightly-armed Scots, bearing long pointed stakes. The bridge had been chosen as the point of engagement by Warenne, even though the river could easily have been forded just a few miles upstream.
• The Battle of Agincourt in 1415 - A large force of French knights could not operate effectively in muddy conditions, and were therefore mown down by English longbowmen.

[edit] 16th century

• The Battle of Lepanto in 1571. The Holy League's fleet defeated the Ottoman fleet in the largest naval battle of human history. The Ottomans lost 240 ships (out of about 300), while the Europeans lost 12 of their 210 ships.

• The Spanish Armada in 1588. An English fleet sends fire ships into the Spanish invasion fleet destroying some and scattering the rest effectively ending the invasion threat.

• The Battle of the Yellow Ford in 1598. An English force of 4000 is ambushed by Irish defenders under Hugh O'Neill and defeated.This temporarily put Ireland out of English control allows the rebellion to spread throughout Ireland. Nine Years War (Ireland)

[edit] 18th century

• Charles XII of Sweden's disastrous wintertime march on Moscow during the Great Northern War marked the beginning of the end of the Swedish Empire.
• The Battle of Karansebes in 1788. A fight broke out between hussars and infantrymen of the Austrian army campaigning against the Ottomans in Wallachia. An officer shouting "Halt! Halt!" was misheard as "Allah! Allah!" causing a mass panic which ultimately resulted in the death or wounding of over 10,000 Austrian soldiers.

[edit] 19th century

• The Charge of the Light Brigade. A British officer misinterpreted an order and led a suicidal charge against the Russian guns. ("Not tho' the soldier knew, someone had blunder'd" — Tennyson)
• Battle of the Little Bighorn. General George Custer attacks a superior force of armed Native American warriors, gets himself and his entire command killed, the only survivor being a lone horse.
• Battle of Isandlwana. A Zulu impi armed mostly with spears destroys two British battalions armed with rifles in a Pyrrhic victory.
• Napoleon's Invasion of Russia in the summer and winter of 1812 where Napoleon lost almost all of his troops; it was the turning point of the Napoleonic wars.
• William Elphinstone's disastrous retreat in 1842 during the First Anglo-Afghan War led to the loss of almost his entire command.
• Both the Battle of Fredericksburg and the Battle of Cold Harbor become horrible one-sided battles in which Union advances on entrenched Confederate units result in horrendous casualties during the American Civil War.
• Pickett's Charge by the Confederates in the Battle of Gettysburg was easily repulsed and, along with the cost of the previous two days of the battle, permanently crippled the Army of Northern Virginia.
• HMS Victoria collided with HMS Camperdown and was sunk with the loss of 358 lives after the fleet commander George Tryon ordered a sudden turn during maneuvres in 1893.
• The Battle of Adowa fought between the Italians and Ethopians in 1896. The Italians were completely defeated and the battle confirmed the independence of Ethopia.

[edit] 20th century

• The Battle of Tsushima - the Russian Baltic fleet was sent halfway around the world in a suicidal attack on the Japanese in the Tsushima Straits in 1905.
• The Battle of Gallipoli in 1915 and early 1916. A combined British,Commonwealth and French attempt to capture Istanbul fails completely at the Gallipoli peninsula with an estimated 250,000 Allied casualties.
• The Maginot line - although from a strictly technical viewpoint the line itself functioned as designed, it was emblematic of a deeply flawed defensive strategy.
• The Battle of France in 1940 - the French Army moved to meet the Germans inside Belgium, believing the Maginot Line would force the Germans to rerun the Schlieffen Plan, but was cutoff by a German advance through the Ardennes, which the French had believed was impassable for tanks.
• The Battle of Taranto in 1940. A small number of British aircraft more or less eliminated the Italian navy by knocking out three battleships with torpedoes as they lay at anchor in the harbor of Taranto.
• The British Operation Compass proved a disaster for the Italian forces in Libya. In the end the British force of 36 000 men captured 130 000 POWs ultimately forcing Germany to dispatch troops of her own to North Africa to save Mussolini from defeat.
• The Japanese surprise attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 rendered the US Pacific fleet unable to act for six months during which Japan conquered much of the Pacific.
• The sinking of Prince of Wales and Repulse (two battleships) in December 1941 shocked the British and once more showed that aircraft posed a serious threat to even the largest of warships.
• Operation Typhoon, the failed German drive towards Moscow in 1941 was exacerbated by the German decision to not bring along any winter clothing and vehicle antifreeze.
• The fall of Singapore (believed to be an impregnable fortress) in February 1942 to two Japanese division was the largest surrender of British-led troops in history and destroyed the lynchpin of the American-British-Dutch-Australian Command.
• The naval Battle of Midway. Admiral Yamamoto of the Imperial Japanese Navy attempted to invade the American navy base at Midway Island. US navy intelligence broke his codes and anticipated the attack. The Imperial Japanese Navy lost four fleet carriers in three days.
• The allied Dieppe Raid on German-occupied France in 1942 ended with ~60 % of the attacking force being lost in battle without any of the major objectives of the raid achieved.
• The Battle of Stalingrad in the winter of 1942/43 was one of the turning points of World War II. The German troops in Stalingrad surrendered even though Hitler had promised that they would never leave the city.
• The allied Operation Market Garden in 1944 failed and resulted in the destruction of the British 1st Airborne Division.
• The Battle of Dien Bien Phu, which forced the French to withdraw from northern Vietnam in 1954.
• The Bay of Pigs Invasion, a 1961 attempt to overthrow Cuban President Fidel Castro with 1,500 Cuban exiles. Not only were the exiles heavily outnumbered when they reached the bay, but the US-promised air support never came to aid the exiles.
• The Battle of Longewala, where a 2000 strong Pakistan Infantry Brigade and Armoured Regiment comprising 60+ tanks failed to take a lone Indian outpost manned by a company of just 120 soldiers for hours together and were finally decimated by the Indian Air Force.
• Operation Eagle Claw, a US attempt to rescue hostages in Iran. This operation was marked by a series of mechanical and communication failures that lead to the deaths of 8 American servicemen, and failed to rescue the hostages.
• Argentinian bombing of Royal Navy ships during the Falklands War. The Argentines flew so low that their bombs hit their targets before the fuses had time to activate. As a result, the bombs almost always failed to detonate.

[edit] Further reading

• Military Intelligence Blunders and Cover-Ups, by Colonel Hughes-Wilson John (ISBN 0-7867-1373-9)
• Geoffrey Regan's Book Of Military Blunders, by Geoffrey Regan (ISBN 0-233-99977-9)

[edit] See also

• List of incidents that have been considered great blunders
• Friendly firept:Lista de falhanços militares

For more information on the topic see Emerging superpowers and Superpower

The Republic of India is considered as one of the possible emerging superpowers of the world.^[1][2][3][4] This potential is attributed due to several indicators, the primary ones being its demographic trends and a rapidly expanding economy. However the country suffers from many economic, social, and political problems that it must overcome before it can be considered a superpower. It is also not yet influential on the international stage as compared to the United States or the former Soviet Union.

[edit] Factors in favour

[edit] Geographic factors

• Location - India, the 7th largest nation by area, lies at the north-central region of Indian Ocean - a zone with unprecedented potential for growth in the scale of transoceanic commerce, with many Eurasian and increasingly Afro-Asian sea-trade routes passing through or close to Indian territorial waters. The subcontinent's land and water resources, though strained, is yet sustaining its massive population.

According to Lord Curzon of the British Empire:

The central position of India, its magnificent resources, its teeming multitude of men, its great trading harbors, its reserve of military strength, supplying an army always in a high state of efficiency and capable of being hurled at a moment's notice upon any point either of Asia or Africa--all these are assets of precious value. On the West, India must exercise a predominant influence over the destinies of Persia and Afghanistan; on the north, it can veto any rival in Tibet; on the north-east . . . it can exert great pressure upon China, and it is one of the guardians of the autonomous existence of Siam. Possession of India gave the British Empire its global reach.^[5]

• Possible future advantage of location -

Energy - In the future, the world is expected to enter from the "fossil fuel age", and perhaps "nuclear energy age", into the "renewable-energy age" or even further into the "fusion power age", if and whenever these technologies become economically sustainable. ^[6][7][8] Being a region in the sunny tropical belt, the Indian Subcontinent could greatly benefit from a renewable energy trend, as it has the ideal combination of both - high solar insolation^[9] and a big consumer base density.^[10][11][12] For example, considering the costs of energy consumed for temperature control (a major factor influencing a regions energy intensity) and the fact that - cooling load requirements, unlike heating, are roughly in phase with the sun's intensity, cooling from the excessive solar radiation could make great energetic (and hence economic) sense in the subcontinent, whenever the required technology becomes competitively cheaper.^{[13] [14] [15]} India also has 25% of the world's thorium resources.

[edit] Demographic factors

• Big - India has the world's second largest population.^[16] The government has attempted to control the population so as to avoid overpopulation. Some South Indian states have slowed down their population growth to below 1%.^[17] The PGR for the country is 1.38.

• Youthful - Due to its high birth rate India has a young population compared to most aging nations. It has approximately 60% of its population below the age of 30. In addition, declining fertility is beginning to reduce the youth dependency rate which may produce a demographic dividend.^{[18] [19] [20]} In the coming decades, while some of the powerful nations witness a decrease in workforce, India is expected to have an increase. For example while Europe is well past its demographic window, the U.S. entered its in 1970 (lasting until 2015), China entered its in 1990 (will last until 2025), India won't enter its window until 2010 (lasting until 2050).^[21] Regionally South Asia is supposed to maintain the youngest demographic profile after Africa and Middle East, with the window extending up to 2070s. ^[22]

• Global Diaspora - More than 35 million Indians live across the globe.^[23] Under fair opportunities, they have become socio-economically successful.^[24]

• English - The importance of English in the 21st century is a topic of debate,^[25][26][27] nonetheless the growing pool of non-native English speakers makes it the best contender for "Global language" status.^[28][29] Incidentally, India has the world's largest English speaking/understanding population.^[30] It claims one of the largest workforce of engineers, doctors and other key professionals, all comfortable with English.^[31] It has the 2nd largest population of "fluent English" speakers, second only to the U.S., with estimates ranging from 150 to 250 million, and is expected to have the largest in coming decades.

[edit] Political factors

• Democratic Republicanism - India is the world's largest democratic republic, more than three times bigger than the next largest (U.S.). It has so far been successful, at least politically, especially considering its functionality in difficult ethnic composition.^[32][33] The fact that India is a democracy has improved its relations with other democratic nations and significantly improved its ties with the majority of the nations in the developed world. ^[34]

• Candidate for Security Council - India has been pressing for permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council (as part of the G4 nations^[35]) but without veto ability.^[36] It has received backing from the UK,^[37] France^[38] and Russia^[39]. However, China^[40] and the U.S^[41] have not been supportive of the bid. With improved Indo-US relations, the US is expected by some to reconsider its stand.^[42]

• Foreign relations - India has developed relationships with the world powers like the EU,^[43] the U.S.,^[44] Japan and Russia. It also developed relationships with the African Union (esp. South Africa), the Arab World, Southeast Asia, Israel and South American nations (esp. Brazil). In order to make the environment propitious for economic growth, India is investing on its relations with China.^[45] It has significantly boosted its image among western nations and signed a civilian nuclear deal with the United States in March 2006. It is also working for better relationships with Pakistan and Iran.^[46]

• Role in international politics - Historically, India was one of the founding members of Non-Aligned Movement, and had good relationships with Soviet Union and other parts of western world. It played regional roles in South Asian affairs, e.g. its use of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in the Bangladesh Liberation War and in Sri Lanka. It took a leading initiative to improve relations between African and Asian countries. India is an active member of the Commonwealth and the WTO. The evolving economic integration politics in the West and in Asia is influencing the Indian mood to slowly swing in favour of integration with global economy.^[47] Currently, India's political moves are being influenced by economic imperatives. New Delhi is also being observed to slowly, cautiously, and often hesitantly, step into the unchartered role of becoming one of the two major seats of political power in Asia,^[48] the other being at Beijing. Some enlightened thinkers from the subcontinent have also envisioned, over the long run, of a South Asian version of free trade zone and even a Union, where the South Asian nations relinquish all past animosities and move to make economic growth a pan subcontinental phenomenon. ^{[49] [50]}

• Multipolarity - A new and highly controversial geopolitical strategy, being debated in the West, is whether India should be trusted/helped to become an economically strong democratic citizen of the world and be used to balance the powerful but non-democratic forces, to insure a more stable world.^[51] Generally speaking it is discussed in the context of adopting a policy of offshore balancing on the part of the United States. A new American strategy towards India has been indicated in George W. Bush's recent visit to the subcontinent.^[52]

• Economic Growth - India's current economic growth (as the world's second-fastest growing major economy) has improved its standing on the world's political stage, even though it is still a developing country, but one that is showing strong development. Many nations are moving to forge better relationships with India.^[53][54]

[edit] Economic factors

• Booming Economy - The economy of India is currently the world's fourth largest in terms of real GDP (PPP) after the USA, the People's Republic of China and Japan, and the second fastest growing major economy in the world, averaging at an annual growth rate of above 8%.^{[55] [56][57]}. Its record growth was in the third quarter of 2003, when it grew higher than any other emerging economy at 10.4% ^{[58] [59]}. Interestingly, estimates by the IMF shows that by 2007 (see List of countries by future GDP estimates (PPP)), India will be the third largest economy in the world, overtaking the Japanese economy. The current growth rate is at 9.2%^[60].

Primary Sector - India, growing at 8% per year, is the world's second largest producer of food next to China. Food processing accounts for USD 69.4 billion as gross income.^[61]

Secondary Sector - India is still relatively a small player in manufacturing when compared to many world leaders. Some new trends suggest an improvement in future, since the manufacturing sector is growing at 11-12%.^{[62][63][64][65][66][67]}

Tertiary and Quaternary Sector - India currently has an expanding IT industry which is considered one of the best in the world. Some have begun to describe India as a technology superpower. ^[68][69] It is considered the World's Office and is leading in the Services Industry. This is mainly due to the availability of a large pool of highly skilled, low cost, English speaking workforce.^{[70] [71]}

[[Image:GSLV launch.jpg|thumb|250px|The Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle in Shri Harikota. India is one of the few countries in the world that has the capability of launching satellites into Geo Transfer Orbits.]]

• Science/Tech - India is trying to develop more high skilled, English speaking people to fit in the future knowledge economy. ^{[72] [73]} India is becoming one of the world's leading producers of computer software and with mushrooming R&D centres it is experiencing a steady revolution in science and technology.^{[74] [75] [76]} A typical example of India's rising scientific endeavours is that it was the 3rd nation to found a National Space Agency called ISRO, after the USSR and the U.S. It was the third Asian nation to send satellites into space after China and Japan in 1970, starting with Aryabhata in 1975.^{[77] [78]} In January 2007, India became the fourth nation to complete atmospheric reentry^[79] By 2008 it plans to send an unmanned mission to the Moon. ^{[80] [81] [82]}. India and the United States have increased mutual cooperation in space-travel related technologies, such as increasing the interoperability between Indian and US systems, and prospects for a commercial space launch agreement with India that would allow US satellites to be launched on Indian vehicles^[83].India is among the world leaders in remote sensing,^[84] a technology coming to great use, among others, to Indian fishermen & farmers.^[85] India is also trying to join international R&D projects - e.g. it has recently joined the European Galileo GPS Project^[86] and the ITER for fusion energy club.^[87] Some Indian educational and research institutions like IIT,^[88] NIT, IIM, IISc, TIFR and AIIMS are among the world's best.

• Energy - To reduce the energy crisis, India is presently constructing ~ 9 civilian nuclear power reactors and several hydro-power stations. Recently on 25/01/2007, Russian president, Vladimir Putin on a visit to India offered to build 4 more reactors and India is expected to clinch this deal of strategical importance.^[89] Recently it also made a civilian nuclear energy deal with the US^[90] and EU.^[91] In recent years, India joined China to launch a vigorous campaign to acquire oil fields around the world and now has stake in several oil fields (in the Middle East and Russia).^{[92] [93] [94] [95]}

• Mass transit system - India is in the process of developing modern mass rapid transit systems to replace its existing system which is seen as inadequate to cater to present and future urban requirements. A modern metro rail system is already in place in the cities of Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata. Work is in progress or would be commencing shortly for developing similar mass transit system in cities of NOIDA, Hyderabad, Bangalore, Indore, Ahmedabad and Kochi.^[96] Indore is leading the track by implementing world class GPS enabled, low floor buses in a Rapid Transport System. With growth in economy and technology, India is welcoming modernisation. The Indian rail network traverses the length and breadth of the country, covering a total length of 63,140 km (39,200 miles). It is one of the largest and busiest rail networks in the world, transporting over 5 billion passengers and over 350 million tonnes of freight annually.^[97] Its operations covers twenty-seven states and three Union territories and also links the neighbouring countries of Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan. However, other public transport systems, such as buses are often not up to the standards followed in developed countries.^[98]

• Tourism - India, with its diverse and fascinating history, arts, music, culture, spiritual & social models has witnessed the growth of a booming tourism industry.^[99] India is a historic place with a diverse history of over five millennia. About 3.9 million tourists travelled to India in 2005, each spending approximately $1,470 per person, higher than that of France (the leading tourist destination in the world).^[99] Foreign visitors in 2005 spent more than US $15.4 billion annually in India ^{[100] [101] [102]}. Many travellers find the cultural diversity an enriching experience, despite the hassles inefficiency, pollution and overcrowding. ^[103][104] Monuments like the Taj Mahal are among the many attractions of this land.^{[105] [106]} As of 2006, Conde Nast Traveller ranked India the 4th most preferred travel destination.^[99] The Planning Commission expects 5.8 million tourists travelling to India by 2010. The World Travel and Tourism Council believes India's tourism industry will grow at 10% per annum in the next decade, making it lead the world in terms of growth.^[99] Tourism contributes 6% of India's GDP and employed 40 million people, making it an important factor in India's economic growth.^[99]

• Medical Services - "First World medical services at Third World prices" - Indian Metros have emerged as the leading destination of medical tourism. Last year, an estimated 150,000 foreigners visited India for medical procedures, and the number is increasing at the rate of about 15 percent a year.^[107]

[edit] Military factors

• Total Strength - The Indian Armed Forces, India's main defence organisation, consists of two main branches: the core Military of India and the Indian Paramilitary Forces. The Military of India maintains the third largest active duty force in the world after the People's Republic of China and the United States^[108], while the Indian Paramilitary Forces, over a million strong, is the second largest paramilitary force in the world. Combined, the total armed forces of India are 2,414,700 strong, the world's third largest defence force.^[109]

Army - The Army of India, as the Indian army was called under British rule before 1947, played a crucial role in checking the advance of Imperial Japan into South Asia during World War II. It also played a leading role in the liberation of Bangladesh in 1971. Today, the Indian Army is the world's second largest army after China's People's Liberation Army.

Air force - The Indian Air Force is the fourth largest air force in the world ^[110][111]. India recently flew its first indigenously manufactured combat aircraft.

Navy - The Indian Navy is the world's fifth largest navy ^[112]. It is considered to have blue-water capabilities with sophisticated missile-capable warships, aircraft carrier, minesweepers, advanced submarines and the latest aircraft in its inventory, along with a significant use of state of the art technology that is indigenously manufactured. ^[113] It operates one of only two Asian aircraft carriers. It also plans to induct the INS Vikramaditya by 2008.

• Integrated Guided Missile Development Program (IGMDP) - The first successful use of missiles in history against a modern army, was by Indians against the British Army in the Mysore wars.^[114] India started the IGMDP to be a self reliant nation in missile development. The IGMDP program includes five missiles ^[115] - the ballistic missiles like the Prithvi and Agni, surface to air missiles Trishul and Akash and also the anti tank Nag missile. Prithvi and Agni missiles are inducted into the armed forces and form the basis of Indian nuclear second strike capability. Trishul missile is declared a technology demonstrator. The Akash and Nag missiles are undergoing user trials. Recently, a new weapons system, the air-to-air Astra missile was added into the project. Astra is a BVR capable missile. The expertise in developing these missiles has helped Indian scientists to contribute to joint weapon development programs like the Brahmos and Barak-II. There are reports of India developing an Intercontinental ballistic missile named Surya (Sun). This missile is said to have a range of twelve thousand kilometers.^[116]

• Nuclear Weapons - India possesses nuclear weapons since 1974, when it did the Pokharan I nuclear tests, and the means to deliver them over long distances. However, India is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (on grounds of security concerns and that India condemns the NPT as discriminatory).^{[117] [118]}

• Arms Imports - India is currently one of the world's largest arms importers, spending an estimated US$16.97 billion in 2004. India has made military technology deals with the Russian Federation, the U.S., Israel and the EU. ^[119]

• Current major roles - The Indian Armed Forces plays a crucial role in anti-terrorist activities and maintaining law and order in the disputed Kashmir region. India has also participated in several United Nations peace-keeping missions, currently being the largest contributor to UN peace keeping force and is the largest contributor to the United Nations Democratic Fund, to which the USA, the world's only current superpower, contributes nothing.^[120]

[edit] Cultural factors

• History - India is one of two ancient civilizations, dating back to at least 5000 years, which have stood the test of time and survived against all odds. Indians invented the numbering system (introduced into the West by Arabic mathematicians, Arabic numerals), the concept of zero, basic algebra, etc.^{[121] [122][123]} India has a long history of cultural intercourse with many regions of the world, especially within Asia, where its cultural influence has spread through the philosophy of religions like Buddhism, Hinduism,Sikhism, etc - particularly in East and Southeast Asia. Many religions with origins outside the Indian continent - Islam, Christianity, Judaism, Zoroastrianism, Bahá'í Faith - have found followers in India. Indian culture has spread to foreign lands through wandering traders, philosophers, migration and less through conquest. According to Chinese ambassador to the United States, Hu Shih:

India conquered and dominated China culturally for 20 centuries without ever having to send a single soldier across her border. - Hu Shih^[124][125]

• Past Experience of having Powerful states- The Maurya, Gupta, Mughal, Vijayanagara and Chola empires provide the necessary confidence that a powerful state can be established despite having diversity.

• Cinema - India's film industry produces more feature films than any other. ^[126] In a year, it sold 3.6 billion tickets, more than any other film industry in the world (In comparison, Hollywood sold 2.6 billion tickets) ^[127]. The cinemas play a major role in spreading Indian culture worldwide. Indian cinema trancended its boundaries from the days of film Awara, a great hit in Russia. Bollywood films are seen in central and west Asia.^{[128] [129] [130] [131]} Indian films have also found audience in eastern societies.^[132] India's film industry is now becoming increasingly popular in Western society, with Bollywood festivals occurring numerous cities^[133][134] and Bollywood dance groups performing in New Years Eve celebrations, treatment which other non-English film industries generally do not receive.^[135]

• Unity in diversity of world view - India has a multi-ethnic, multi-lingual and multi-religious society living together. The subcontinent's long and diverse history has given it a unique eclectic culture. It is often associated with spirituality. Thanks to its history of both indigenous and foreign influences - like the ancient Indian schools of thought (Buddhism, Hinduism, Jainism, etc) and the ancient Western-Eurasian schools of thought (Abrahamic - Islam, Christianity, etc.) - the current Indian civilizational psyche is evolving into a complex mix of them - sometimes a superposition of religious philosophies with acceptance of the conflicting cosmologies, sometimes striking a middle ground, and sometimes taking the practical attitude - popular with the young - of "filtering the common best, and leaving the rest", thus leading to the creation of many syncretic mix of faiths (such as Sai Baba of Shirdi). Since independence, more progressive schools of thought, like - democracy, secularism, rule of law, esteem for human rights, rational deductive reasoning, development of Science and Technology, etc - are making slow but steady inroads into the collective modern Indian psyche. India's diversity forces it to evolve strong foundations of tolerance and pluralism, or face breakup. The Indian public is now also accepting modern western influences in their society and media - and what is emerging is a confluence of its past local culture with the new western culture ("Social Globalisation"). For some futuristic social thinkers, the miscegenation of diverse ancient culture with modernity, spirituality with science/technology, Eastern with Western world-view is potentially making India a social laboratory for the evolution of futuristic global-unity consciousness.^{[136] [137] [138]}

• Soft Power - India, a melting pot of human ethnicities, languages, cultures, religions, ideologies and world view, has produced much cultural influence, and has the potential to re-enforce the massive influence on world culture through modern trends such as entertainment.^{[citation needed]}

[edit] Points against the rise of India as a superpower

[edit] Political obstacles

India has had border disputes with both the People's Republic of China and Pakistan. This has led to 3 wars with Pakistan and a war with China. Mapped is the location of the 1999 Kargil Conflict, which is the most recent of India's direct military encounters with the Pakistani military.

• Cost of Democratic Republicanism - Democratic republicanism has its value,^[139] more so in a multi-ethnic country like India ^[140]. However, the applicability of the "theoretical" virtues of republicanism on a country like India is sometimes questioned.^{[141] [142] [143]} Some thinkers consider India's diverse democracy to levy a huge tax on its economy.^[144] The Indian government has to consider many interest groups before decision making. However, it should be noted that India is relatively a much younger republic when compared to other major democracies. Moreover, it is predicted that in the long run, India being a democracy will provide it an edge over non-democratic competitors like China.^[145]

• Insurgency - India has had significant successes with quelling many insurgencies, most prominently the Sikh terrorism (Khalistan) and the surrender of large sections of insurgent outfits like the United Liberation Front of Asom in 1992 and National Liberation Front of Tripura in 2000-2001. However the Indian government has acknowledged that there has been a dramatic increase in support for the Maoists (Naxalite) insurgency in the last decade.^[146] Maoist rebels have increased their influence over the last 10 years, especially in regions near Nepal, particularly by targeting and gaining support from poor villages in India. The boom in support appears to have been also boosted by the successes of the nearly 10-year-old Maoist rebellion in Nepal. The maoist insurgency exploits the poor by forced conscription. India's government has recently taken a new stance on the Maoist insurgency, pulling the affected states together to coordinate their response. It says it will combine improved policing with socio-economic measures to defuse grievances that fuel the Maoist cause^[147].

• Disputes - India's growth is impeded by disputes with its neighboring People's Republic of China and Pakistan (over historical border and ideological issues) and disputes with Bangladesh (over water availability and the Farakka Dam). Hence, India's neighbors such as China and Pakistan remain distrustful towards India. It is also occasionally burdened with instability issues within some localised-regions of the subcontinent. In an effort to reduce political tension and increase economic cooperation, in recent years, India has improved its relations with its neighbors ^[148].

• Lack of international representation - India is not a member of the UNSC, although currently it is one of the four-nations group actively seeking a permanent seat in the council. Thus India lacks the ability to extend its influence or ideas on international events in the way superpowers do. ^[149]

[edit] Economic obstacles

• Poverty - As of 2005, approximately 22-26% of India's population lived below poverty line.^{[150] [151] [152]} Poverty also begets child labour. ^[153] Various reforms, including mass employment schemes have been undertaken by the government to tackle this problem, ^{[154] [155]} and India has been quite successful in reducing its share of poverty. The number of people living on $1 a day is expected to fall in South Asia from 41.5 per cent in 1990 to 16.4 per cent until 2015. ^[156] However, the issue of poverty in India is not fully resolved. There is consensus among economists that overall poverty in India has declined, the extent of poverty reduction is often debated ^[157]. The economic reforms of the early 1990s were followed by rates of high economic growth. Its effect on poverty remain controversial, and the official numbers published by the Government of India, showing a reduction of poverty from 36% (1993–94) to 26% (1999 – 00), to 22% (2004 - 05), have been challenged both for allegedly showing too little and too much poverty reduction^[158]. While there is a consensus on the fact that liberalization has led to a reduction of income poverty, the picture is not so clear if one considers other non-pecuniary dimensions (such as health, education, crime and access to infrastructure). With the rapid economic growth that India is experiencing, it is likely that a significant fraction of the rural population will continue to migrate toward cities, making the issue of urban poverty more significant in the long run ^[159]. Economist Pravin Visaria has defended the validity of many of the statistics that demonstrated the reduction in overall poverty in India. He insisted that the 1999-2000 survey was well designed and supervised, and he further defended that just because the numbers did not appear to fit preconceived notions about poverty in India, they should not be dismissed outright^[160]. Nicholas Stern, vice president of the World Bank, has published defenses of the poverty reduction statistics. He argues that increasing globalization and investment opportunities have contributed significantly to the reduction of poverty in the country. India, has shown one of the clearest co-relation trends of globalization with the accelerated rise in per-capita income. ^{[161] [162]}

• Infrastructure - The social infrastructure in India ^[163] such as roads, power grid, water, communications infrastructure, housing and education are often below standards, and not catching up with the tune of its economic progress. ^[164] Continued poor infrastructure might serve as a bottleneck to further economic development. The government is, however, improving the infrastructure, such as expanding the freeway and highway system and bringing it up to global standards. As of 2005, India only had 4,885 km of central-divided expressways^[165], while the U.S. and China have 90,000 km and 41,000 km of expressways, respectively. ^[166]

• Disorganization - India's continual economic prosperity is also hindered by bad governance and ubiquitous red tape^[167] (‘Bureaucratic Raj'^[168]). Retrogressive government regulations affect many areas. For example, in some states, black outs and power rationing are common due to underinvestment, differing state and local regulations, etc.

• Inflation and overheating - Despite India's growth spurt of 8% p.a. in recent years, its sustainable pace is still much lower than China's, which puts its economy more at risk of overheating and rising inflation.^[169] The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has acknowledged the risk of overheating and has been tightening monetary policy steadily. It is debatable whether this alone will be sufficient to ease inflationary pressures. The economy is running near or above capacity, and the RBI has noted that production must rise at a pace sufficient to match overall GDP growth if further inflationary pressures are to be avoided. The Indian government has said that much of the rise in inflation recently can be attributed to short-term supply constraints, such as a shortage of key foodstuffs thanks to an erratic summer monsoon. ^[170]

• Energy Dependence & Costs - India heavily depends on foreign oil - a phenomenon likely to continue until non-fossil/renewable energy technology becomes economically viable in the country.^[171] To avert an energy crisis, India is desperately seeking alternate means of energy. India can sustain its growth to higher trajectories only by the co-operation of other countries. As for now, India is energetically expensive since India has to import over 70% of its energy,^[172] thus making costs of comforts - like personal car or even air conditioning - extremely high. It is however, steadily combating its energy issues.

• Unemployment - Unless India finds a quick way to generate jobs, its population of unemployed youths could be a reason of unstability.^[173] India's growth in the services sector and Information Technology sector has not been matched by growth in manufacturing which can provide more jobs.^[174] Some claim that this sector may lose importance in the future. ^[175] India is leveraging on new sectors like the KPO (Knowledge Process Outsourcing)^{[176] [177]}.

• Health - India's health scenario is dismal with diseases and malnutrition constantly affecting the poorest quarter of the populace.^{[178] [179] [180]} Mortality is still relatively high and the bane of AIDS is spreading quickly.^[181] According to a report of United Nations Development Programme, India has the highest population living with AIDS/HIV and its economy might suffer a setback if it does not check the problem of the virus' spread. It is estimated that India's economic growth will decline by 0.86 percentage annually if the AIDS problem is not properly dealt with. To improve the situation, a number of projects such as the building of hospital chains (like the Apollo Hospitals, amongst others) has laid the foundation for a health system that matches global standards. However, these hospitals are sometimes used by foreigners as a cheap yet effective source of health services and much remains to be done for India's very poor.

• Low Literacy - As per the 2001 India census, India's national literacy is only 65.2 percent.^{[182] [183]} Literacy drive is spreading slowly to other states.^[184] India's youth (age 15 to 24) literacy rate was 76.4% between 2000 and 2004.^[185] At current rates India will take no less than 20 years for a literacy of 95%.^[186]. Literacy in India is not homogeneous, some states in India have more impressive literacy rates than others. Kerala, a south-indian state widely recognized as the most well-educated state in India, recorded an impressive 90.92% literacy rate in 2001. ^[187] On the other hand the north-indian state of Bihar lags behind with 47.53%.^[188] India's adult literacy rates (61.3% in 2002), is just a little better compared to other nations in South Asia except Sri Lanka's 92%, ^[189] with Nepal next at 44%, Pakistan at 41.5% and Bangladesh the lowest at 41.1%.

• Climate or Environment Problems - The majority of India lies in the tropical climate zone, which may have a negative impact on its agricultural and overall economic development. The climate thesis of economic development was first argued by Adam Smith and recently by David Landes in his The Wealth and Poverty of Nations. Tropical areas generally average enough rainfall, but the timing is often irregular and unpredictable. The rain drops are large and the rate of fall often torrential. One answer to irregular moisture is storage and irrigation, but this is countered in these regions by incredibly high rates of evaporation. In the Agra region of India, for example, rainfall exceeds the needs of local agriculture for only two months in the year, and the excess held in the soil in those wet months dries up in only three weeks.^[190] Tropical zones are also more prone to endemic water-borne and parasitic diseases such as cholera and malaria.^[191] As a result of climate change, the Gangotri Glacier, among others, is receding.^{[192] [193]} Also, of the 3 million premature deaths in the world that occur each year due to outdoor and indoor air pollution, the highest number are assessed to occur in India.^[194]

[edit] Social issues

Main article: Reservations in India

• Communal violence- India has a diverse mix of various religions and races. The majority are Hindus by religion, followed by Muslims, Sikhs, Christians, Jains, Buddhists, Bahaii and many more. Though most religions in India have been practising religious tolerance in their histories, the partition and subsequent terrorism had created some degree of uneasiness among some. The uneducated masses of these various groups sometimes get at odds with one another.^{[195] [196] [197]} However in recent years, relations between the different religious groups have considerably changed for better. For instance, a real chunk of India's celebrities - sporting legends, film stars, industrialists, artists, politicians, scientists, head-of-state, etc - have come from various non-majority roots, representing the emerging face of new diverse India.^[198]

• Social Divide - The problem of India's social divide is often linked to its millenia-old caste system.^[199] In an attempt to eliminate the caste system, the Indian government has introduced special quotas for low-caste Indians in educational institutions and jobs. The measure is with the motive of helping lower-caste Indians to pursue higher education and thereby elevate their standard of life. However, the system is often criticised about its effectiveness as so called creamy layer (rich among the lower caste) get non-needed advantage & leave other lower caste groups poor only.^{[200] [201]} There also have been cases of reverse-discrimination and persecution of upper castes by lower castes ^[202][203].

[edit] See also

• Indosphere
• Economy of India
• Culture of India
• Foreign relations of India
• Tourism in India
• Military of India
• History of India

[edit] References

[edit] External links

Articles

• India: Towards the Millennium Development Goals, UN
• India Economy grows at torrid pace - New York Times
• The Changing Geopolitical Landscape by National Intelligence Council
• Prospects for China and India in the 21st Century, Marvin Cetron, World future Society Conference, 2004.
• China and India Hold World in Balance
• India and the World: Balancing Agenda
• India: The next knowledge superpower
• A New World Economy by Businessweek
• China and India by Businessweek
• India: the Next Economic Giant, 2004, By Lowy Institute, Australia.
• Newsweek Coverpage on India
• Businessweek on India's attractiveness
• Socioeconomic statistics and demographics of Asians in America
• New World-Order Paradigm: The Best of the West Agrees It’s Moving East
• Relocating to India
• India, China, and the United States: A Delicate Balance
• Indian economy on take-off stage with demographic bonus
• Indian Economy Overview
• Made for India
• China and India - The Future of Investors
• A Race to the Future
• Indians on India Vision
• India Awakens by Michael Elliott (Time.com)
• What's Behind Asia's Gold Rush? A Health and Demographic analysis by Harvard School of Public Health
• Is India a science superpower?
• The New India, and the Old One
• China, India Superpower - Not so fast.
• India's Economic Contrasts
• Why India lags behind China
• Does demography advantage India?
• The end of Gandhi's dream: India's economic boom and bust
• Why Has China’s Economy Taken Off Faster than India’s? A Research Paper by Harvard and Tsingua University faculties, presented at Stanford Center for International Development
• India is China's economic equal? Bah!

Books

• The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century Thomas L.Friedman
• Three Billion New Capitalists by Clyde Prestowitz
• India Unbound: The Social and Economic Revolution from Independence to the Global Information Age by Gurcharan Das (ISBN 0-385-72074-2)
• India: An Investor’s Guide to the Next Economic Superpower by Aaron Chaze
• Social Problems in India/B.K. Prasad
• Energy Crisis in India by M. G. Mehetre
• India: Emerging Power by Stephen P. Cohen (ISBN 0-8157-1501-3)
• India 2020 by A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, Y.S. Rajan (ISBN 0-14-027833-8)
• India as an Emerging Power by Sumit Ganguly (ISBN 0-7146-8321-3)

Media

• World is Flat, T. Friedman, Colloquim Recording at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
• One Land, two planets (listen)

Websites

• An information portal on India's rising status

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fr:L'Inde comme puissance émergente

pt:Índia como superpotência emergente

For more information on the topic see Emerging superpowers and Superpower

Republic of India

India

The Republic of India is considered as one of the possible emerging superpowers of the world.^[1][2][3][4] This potential is attributed due to several indicators, the primary ones being its demographic trends and a rapidly expanding economy. However the country suffers from many economic, social, and political problems that it must overcome before it can be considered a superpower. It is also not yet influential on the international stage as compared to the United States or the former Soviet Union.

[edit] Factors in favour

View of the Himalaya and Mount Everest as seen from space looking south-south-east from over the Tibetan Plateau. The Himalayas in the north and north-east protect the subcontinent from bitter continental cold, save the monsoon winds from escaping, and replenish the river watersheds and flat arable lands that have spawned the Indian civilization. The Metropolis of Mumbai as seen from above during night time. Mumbai is one of the most modern and cosmopolitan cities in India

[edit] Geographic factors

• Location - India, the 7th largest nation by area, lies at the north-central region of Indian Ocean - a zone with unprecedented potential for growth in the scale of transoceanic commerce, with many Eurasian and increasingly Afro-Asian sea-trade routes passing through or close to Indian territorial waters. The subcontinent's land and water resources, though strained, is yet sustaining its massive population.

According to Lord Curzon of the British Empire:

The central position of India, its magnificent resources, its teeming multitude of men, its great trading harbors, its reserve of military strength, supplying an army always in a high state of efficiency and capable of being hurled at a moment's notice upon any point either of Asia or Africa--all these are assets of precious value. On the West, India must exercise a predominant influence over the destinies of Persia and Afghanistan; on the north, it can veto any rival in Tibet; on the north-east . . . it can exert great pressure upon China, and it is one of the guardians of the autonomous existence of Siam. Possession of India gave the British Empire its global reach.^[5]

• Possible future advantage of location -

Energy - In the future, the world is expected to enter from the "fossil fuel age", and perhaps "nuclear energy age", into the "renewable-energy age" or even further into the "fusion power age", if and whenever these technologies become economically sustainable. ^[6][7][8] Being a region in the sunny tropical belt, the Indian Subcontinent could greatly benefit from a renewable energy trend, as it has the ideal combination of both - high solar insolation^[9] and a big consumer base density.^[10][11][12] For example, considering the costs of energy consumed for temperature control (a major factor influencing a regions energy intensity) and the fact that - cooling load requirements, unlike heating, are roughly in phase with the sun's intensity, cooling from the excessive solar radiation could make great energetic (and hence economic) sense in the subcontinent, whenever the required technology becomes competitively cheaper.^{[13] [14] [15]} India also has 25% of the world's thorium resources.

[edit] Demographic factors

• Big - India has the world's second largest population.^[16] The government has attempted to control the population so as to avoid overpopulation. Some South Indian states have slowed down their population growth to below 1%.^[17] The PGR for the country is 1.38.

• Youthful - Due to its high birth rate India has a young population compared to most aging nations. It has approximately 60% of its population below the age of 30. In addition, declining fertility is beginning to reduce the youth dependency rate which may produce a demographic dividend.^{[18] [19] [20]} In the coming decades, while some of the powerful nations witness a decrease in workforce, India is expected to have an increase. For example while Europe is well past its demographic window, the U.S. entered its in 1970 (lasting until 2015), China entered its in 1990 (will last until 2025), India won't enter its window until 2010 (lasting until 2050).^[21] Regionally South Asia is supposed to maintain the youngest demographic profile after Africa and Middle East, with the window extending up to 2070s. ^[22]

• Global Diaspora - More than 35 million Indians live across the globe.^[23] Under fair opportunities, they have become socio-economically successful.^[24]

• English - The importance of English in the 21st century is a topic of debate,^[25][26][27] nonetheless the growing pool of non-native English speakers makes it the best contender for "Global language" status.^[28][29] Incidentally, India has the world's largest English speaking/understanding population.^[30] It claims one of the largest workforce of engineers, doctors and other key professionals, all comfortable with English.^[31] It has the 2nd largest population of "fluent English" speakers, second only to the U.S., with estimates ranging from 150 to 250 million, and is expected to have the largest in coming decades.

[edit] Political factors

• Democratic Republicanism - India is the world's largest democratic republic, more than three times bigger than the next largest (U.S.). It has so far been successful, at least politically, especially considering its functionality in difficult ethnic composition.^[32][33] The fact that India is a democracy has improved its relations with other democratic nations and significantly improved its ties with the majority of the nations in the developed world. ^[34]

• Candidate for Security Council - India has been pressing for permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council (as part of the G4 nations^[35]) but without veto ability.^[36] It has received backing from the UK,^[37] France^[38] and Russia^[39]. However, China^[40] and the U.S^[41] have not been supportive of the bid. With improved Indo-US relations, the US is expected by some to reconsider its stand.^[42]

• Foreign relations - India has developed relationships with the world powers like the EU,^[43] the U.S.,^[44] Japan and Russia. It also developed relationships with the African Union (esp. South Africa), the Arab World, Southeast Asia, Israel and South American nations (esp. Brazil). In order to make the environment propitious for economic growth, India is investing on its relations with China.^[45] It has significantly boosted its image among western nations and signed a civilian nuclear deal with the United States in March 2006. It is also working for better relationships with Pakistan and Iran.^[46]

• Role in international politics - Historically, India was one of the founding members of Non-Aligned Movement, and had good relationships with Soviet Union and other parts of western world. It played regional roles in South Asian affairs, e.g. its use of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in the Bangladesh Liberation War and in Sri Lanka. It took a leading initiative to improve relations between African and Asian countries. India is an active member of the Commonwealth and the WTO. The evolving economic integration politics in the West and in Asia is influencing the Indian mood to slowly swing in favour of integration with global economy.^[47] Currently, India's political moves are being influenced by economic imperatives. New Delhi is also being observed to slowly, cautiously, and often hesitantly, step into the unchartered role of becoming one of the two major seats of political power in Asia,^[48] the other being at Beijing. Some enlightened thinkers from the subcontinent have also envisioned, over the long run, of a South Asian version of free trade zone and even a Union, where the South Asian nations relinquish all past animosities and move to make economic growth a pan subcontinental phenomenon. ^{[49] [50]}

• Multipolarity - A new and highly controversial geopolitical strategy, being debated in the West, is whether India should be trusted/helped to become an economically strong democratic citizen of the world and be used to balance the powerful but non-democratic forces, to insure a more stable world.^[51] Generally speaking it is discussed in the context of adopting a policy of offshore balancing on the part of the United States. A new American strategy towards India has been indicated in George W. Bush's recent visit to the subcontinent.^[52]

• Economic Growth - India's current economic growth (as the world's second-fastest growing major economy) has improved its standing on the world's political stage, even though it is still a developing country, but one that is showing strong development. Many nations are moving to forge better relationships with India.^[53][54]

[edit] Economic factors

• Booming Economy - The economy of India is currently the world's fourth largest in terms of real GDP (PPP) after the USA, the People's Republic of China and Japan, and the second fastest growing major economy in the world, averaging at an annual growth rate of above 8%.^{[55] [56][57]}. Its record growth was in the third quarter of 2003, when it grew higher than any other emerging economy at 10.4% ^{[58] [59]}. Interestingly, estimates by the IMF shows that by 2007 (see List of countries by future GDP estimates (PPP)), India will be the third largest economy in the world, overtaking the Japanese economy. The current growth rate is at 9.2%^[60].

Primary Sector - India, growing at 8% per year, is the world's second largest producer of food next to China. Food processing accounts for USD 69.4 billion as gross income.^[61]

Secondary Sector - India is still relatively a small player in manufacturing when compared to many world leaders. Some new trends suggest an improvement in future, since the manufacturing sector is growing at 11-12%.^{[62][63][64][65][66][67]}

Tertiary and Quaternary Sector - India currently has an expanding IT industry which is considered one of the best in the world. Some have begun to describe India as a technology superpower. ^[68][69] It is considered the World's Office and is leading in the Services Industry. This is mainly due to the availability of a large pool of highly skilled, low cost, English speaking workforce.^{[70] [71]}

• Science/Tech - India is trying to develop more high skilled, English speaking people to fit in the future knowledge economy. ^{[72] [73]} India is becoming one of the world's leading producers of computer software and with mushrooming R&D centres it is experiencing a steady revolution in science and technology.^{[74] [75] [76]} A typical example of India's rising scientific endeavours is that it was the 3rd nation to found a National Space Agency called ISRO, after the USSR and the U.S. It was the third Asian nation to send satellites into space after China and Japan in 1970, starting with Aryabhata in 1975.^{[77] [78]} In January 2007, India became the fourth nation to complete atmospheric reentry^[79] By 2008 it plans to send an unmanned mission to the Moon. ^{[80] [81] [82]}. India and the United States have increased mutual cooperation in space-travel related technologies, such as increasing the interoperability between Indian and US systems, and prospects for a commercial space launch agreement with India that would allow US satellites to be launched on Indian vehicles^[83].India is among the world leaders in remote sensing,^[84] a technology coming to great use, among others, to Indian fishermen & farmers.^[85] India is also trying to join international R&D projects - e.g. it has recently joined the European Galileo GPS Project^[86] and the ITER for fusion energy club.^[87] Some Indian educational and research institutions like IIT,^[88] NIT, IIM, IISc, TIFR and AIIMS are among the world's best.

• Energy - To reduce the energy crisis, India is presently constructing ~ 9 civilian nuclear power reactors and several hydro-power stations. Recently on 25/01/2007, Russian president, Vladimir Putin on a visit to India offered to build 4 more reactors and India is expected to clinch this deal of strategical importance.^[89] Recently it also made a civilian nuclear energy deal with the US^[90] and EU.^[91] In recent years, India joined China to launch a vigorous campaign to acquire oil fields around the world and now has stake in several oil fields (in the Middle East and Russia).^{[92] [93] [94] [95]}

• Mass transit system - India is in the process of developing modern mass rapid transit systems to replace its existing system which is seen as inadequate to cater to present and future urban requirements. A modern metro rail system is already in place in the cities of Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata. Work is in progress or would be commencing shortly for developing similar mass transit system in cities of NOIDA, Hyderabad, Bangalore, Indore, Ahmedabad and Kochi.^[96] Indore is leading the track by implementing world class GPS enabled, low floor buses in a Rapid Transport System. With growth in economy and technology, India is welcoming modernisation. The Indian rail network traverses the length and breadth of the country, covering a total length of 63,140 km (39,200 miles). It is one of the largest and busiest rail networks in the world, transporting over 5 billion passengers and over 350 million tonnes of freight annually.^[97] Its operations covers twenty-seven states and three Union territories and also links the neighbouring countries of Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan. However, other public transport systems, such as buses are often not up to the standards followed in developed countries.^[98]

• Tourism - India, with its diverse and fascinating history, arts, music, culture, spiritual & social models has witnessed the growth of a booming tourism industry.^[99] India is a historic place with a diverse history of over five millennia. About 3.9 million tourists travelled to India in 2005, each spending approximately $1,470 per person, higher than that of France (the leading tourist destination in the world).^[99] Foreign visitors in 2005 spent more than US $15.4 billion annually in India ^{[100] [101] [102]}. Many travellers find the cultural diversity an enriching experience, despite the hassles inefficiency, pollution and overcrowding. ^[103][104] Monuments like the Taj Mahal are among the many attractions of this land.^{[105] [106]} As of 2006, Conde Nast Traveller ranked India the 4th most preferred travel destination.^[99] The Planning Commission expects 5.8 million tourists travelling to India by 2010. The World Travel and Tourism Council believes India's tourism industry will grow at 10% per annum in the next decade, making it lead the world in terms of growth.^[99] Tourism contributes 6% of India's GDP and employed 40 million people, making it an important factor in India's economic growth.^[99]

• Medical Services - "First World medical services at Third World prices" - Indian Metros have emerged as the leading destination of medical tourism. Last year, an estimated 150,000 foreigners visited India for medical procedures, and the number is increasing at the rate of about 15 percent a year.^[107]

[edit] Military factors

• Total Strength - The Indian Armed Forces, India's main defence organisation, consists of two main branches: the core Military of India and the Indian Paramilitary Forces. The Military of India maintains the third largest active duty force in the world after the People's Republic of China and the United States^[108], while the Indian Paramilitary Forces, over a million strong, is the second largest paramilitary force in the world. Combined, the total armed forces of India are 2,414,700 strong, the world's third largest defence force.^[109]

Army - The Army of India, as the Indian army was called under British rule before 1947, played a crucial role in checking the advance of Imperial Japan into South Asia during World War II. It also played a leading role in the liberation of Bangladesh in 1971. Today, the Indian Army is the world's second largest army after China's People's Liberation Army.

Air force - The Indian Air Force is the fourth largest air force in the world ^[110][111]. India recently flew its first indigenously manufactured combat aircraft.

Navy - The Indian Navy is the world's fifth largest navy ^[112]. It is considered to have blue-water capabilities with sophisticated missile-capable warships, aircraft carrier, minesweepers, advanced submarines and the latest aircraft in its inventory, along with a significant use of state of the art technology that is indigenously manufactured. ^[113] It operates one of only two Asian aircraft carriers. It also plans to induct the INS Vikramaditya by 2008.

• Integrated Guided Missile Development Program (IGMDP) - The first successful use of missiles in history against a modern army, was by Indians against the British Army in the Mysore wars.^[114] India started the IGMDP to be a self reliant nation in missile development. The IGMDP program includes five missiles ^[115] - the ballistic missiles like the Prithvi and Agni, surface to air missiles Trishul and Akash and also the anti tank Nag missile. Prithvi and Agni missiles are inducted into the armed forces and form the basis of Indian nuclear second strike capability. Trishul missile is declared a technology demonstrator. The Akash and Nag missiles are undergoing user trials. Recently, a new weapons system, the air-to-air Astra missile was added into the project. Astra is a BVR capable missile. The expertise in developing these missiles has helped Indian scientists to contribute to joint weapon development programs like the Brahmos and Barak-II. There are reports of India developing an Intercontinental ballistic missile named Surya (Sun). This missile is said to have a range of twelve thousand kilometers.^[116]

• Nuclear Weapons - India possesses nuclear weapons since 1974, when it did the Pokharan I nuclear tests, and the means to deliver them over long distances. However, India is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (on grounds of security concerns and that India condemns the NPT as discriminatory).^{[117] [118]}

• Arms Imports - India is currently one of the world's largest arms importers, spending an estimated US$16.97 billion in 2004. India has made military technology deals with the Russian Federation, the U.S., Israel and the EU. ^[119]

• Current major roles - The Indian Armed Forces plays a crucial role in anti-terrorist activities and maintaining law and order in the disputed Kashmir region. India has also participated in several United Nations peace-keeping missions, currently being the largest contributor to UN peace keeping force and is the largest contributor to the United Nations Democratic Fund, to which the USA, the world's only current superpower, contributes nothing.^[120]

[edit] Cultural factors

• History - India is one of two ancient civilizations, dating back to at least 5000 years, which have stood the test of time and survived against all odds. Indians invented the numbering system (introduced into the West by Arabic mathematicians, Arabic numerals), the concept of zero, basic algebra, etc.^{[121] [122][123]} India has a long history of cultural intercourse with many regions of the world, especially within Asia, where its cultural influence has spread through the philosophy of religions like Buddhism, Hinduism,Sikhism, etc - particularly in East and Southeast Asia. Many religions with origins outside the Indian continent - Islam, Christianity, Judaism, Zoroastrianism, Bahá'í Faith - have found followers in India. Indian culture has spread to foreign lands through wandering traders, philosophers, migration and less through conquest. According to Chinese ambassador to the United States, Hu Shih:

India conquered and dominated China culturally for 20 centuries without ever having to send a single soldier across her border. - Hu Shih^[124][125]

• Past Experience of having Powerful states- The Maurya, Gupta, Mughal, Vijayanagara and Chola empires provide the necessary confidence that a powerful state can be established despite having diversity.

• Cinema - India's film industry produces more feature films than any other. ^[126] In a year, it sold 3.6 billion tickets, more than any other film industry in the world (In comparison, Hollywood sold 2.6 billion tickets) ^[127]. The cinemas play a major role in spreading Indian culture worldwide. Indian cinema trancended its boundaries from the days of film Awara, a great hit in Russia. Bollywood films are seen in central and west Asia.^{[128] [129] [130] [131]} Indian films have also found audience in eastern societies.^[132] India's film industry is now becoming increasingly popular in Western society, with Bollywood festivals occurring numerous cities^[133][134] and Bollywood dance groups performing in New Years Eve celebrations, treatment which other non-English film industries generally do not receive.^[135]

• Unity in diversity of world view - India has a multi-ethnic, multi-lingual and multi-religious society living together. The subcontinent's long and diverse history has given it a unique eclectic culture. It is often associated with spirituality. Thanks to its history of both indigenous and foreign influences - like the ancient Indian schools of thought (Buddhism, Hinduism, Jainism, etc) and the ancient Western-Eurasian schools of thought (Abrahamic - Islam, Christianity, etc.) - the current Indian civilizational psyche is evolving into a complex mix of them - sometimes a superposition of religious philosophies with acceptance of the conflicting cosmologies, sometimes striking a middle ground, and sometimes taking the practical attitude - popular with the young - of "filtering the common best, and leaving the rest", thus leading to the creation of many syncretic mix of faiths (such as Sai Baba of Shirdi). Since independence, more progressive schools of thought, like - democracy, secularism, rule of law, esteem for human rights, rational deductive reasoning, development of Science and Technology, etc - are making slow but steady inroads into the collective modern Indian psyche. India's diversity forces it to evolve strong foundations of tolerance and pluralism, or face breakup. The Indian public is now also accepting modern western influences in their society and media - and what is emerging is a confluence of its past local culture with the new western culture ("Social Globalisation"). For some futuristic social thinkers, the miscegenation of diverse ancient culture with modernity, spirituality with science/technology, Eastern with Western world-view is potentially making India a social laboratory for the evolution of futuristic global-unity consciousness.^{[136] [137] [138]}

• Soft Power - India, a melting pot of human ethnicities, languages, cultures, religions, ideologies and world view, has produced much cultural influence, and has the potential to re-enforce the massive influence on world culture through modern trends such as entertainment.^{[citation needed]}

[edit] Points against the rise of India as a superpower

[edit] Political obstacles

India has had border disputes with both the People's Republic of China and Pakistan. This has led to 3 wars with Pakistan and a war with China. Mapped is the location of the 1999 Kargil Conflict, which is the most recent of India's direct military encounters with the Pakistani military.

• Cost of Democratic Republicanism - Democratic republicanism has its value,^[139] more so in a multi-ethnic country like India ^[140]. However, the applicability of the "theoretical" virtues of republicanism on a country like India is sometimes questioned.^{[141] [142] [143]} Some thinkers consider India's diverse democracy to levy a huge tax on its economy.^[144] The Indian government has to consider many interest groups before decision making. However, it should be noted that India is relatively a much younger republic when compared to other major democracies. Moreover, it is predicted that in the long run, India being a democracy will provide it an edge over non-democratic competitors like China.^[145]

• Insurgency - India has had significant successes with quelling many insurgencies, most prominently the Sikh terrorism (Khalistan) and the surrender of large sections of insurgent outfits like the United Liberation Front of Asom in 1992 and National Liberation Front of Tripura in 2000-2001. However the Indian government has acknowledged that there has been a dramatic increase in support for the Maoists (Naxalite) insurgency in the last decade.^[146] Maoist rebels have increased their influence over the last 10 years, especially in regions near Nepal, particularly by targeting and gaining support from poor villages in India. The boom in support appears to have been also boosted by the successes of the nearly 10-year-old Maoist rebellion in Nepal. The maoist insurgency exploits the poor by forced conscription. India's government has recently taken a new stance on the Maoist insurgency, pulling the affected states together to coordinate their response. It says it will combine improved policing with socio-economic measures to defuse grievances that fuel the Maoist cause^[147].

• Disputes - India's growth is impeded by disputes with its neighboring People's Republic of China and Pakistan (over historical border and ideological issues) and disputes with Bangladesh (over water availability and the Farakka Dam). Hence, India's neighbors such as China and Pakistan remain distrustful towards India. It is also occasionally burdened with instability issues within some localised-regions of the subcontinent. In an effort to reduce political tension and increase economic cooperation, in recent years, India has improved its relations with its neighbors ^[148].

• Lack of international representation - India is not a member of the UNSC, although currently it is one of the four-nations group actively seeking a permanent seat in the council. Thus India lacks the ability to extend its influence or ideas on international events in the way superpowers do. ^[149]

[edit] Economic obstacles

• Poverty - As of 2005, approximately 22-26% of India's population lived below poverty line.^{[150] [151] [152]} Poverty also begets child labour. ^[153] Various reforms, including mass employment schemes have been undertaken by the government to tackle this problem, ^{[154] [155]} and India has been quite successful in reducing its share of poverty. The number of people living on $1 a day is expected to fall in South Asia from 41.5 per cent in 1990 to 16.4 per cent until 2015. ^[156] However, the issue of poverty in India is not fully resolved. There is consensus among economists that overall poverty in India has declined, the extent of poverty reduction is often debated ^[157]. The economic reforms of the early 1990s were followed by rates of high economic growth. Its effect on poverty remain controversial, and the official numbers published by the Government of India, showing a reduction of poverty from 36% (1993–94) to 26% (1999 – 00), to 22% (2004 - 05), have been challenged both for allegedly showing too little and too much poverty reduction^[158]. While there is a consensus on the fact that liberalization has led to a reduction of income poverty, the picture is not so clear if one considers other non-pecuniary dimensions (such as health, education, crime and access to infrastructure). With the rapid economic growth that India is experiencing, it is likely that a significant fraction of the rural population will continue to migrate toward cities, making the issue of urban poverty more significant in the long run ^[159]. Economist Pravin Visaria has defended the validity of many of the statistics that demonstrated the reduction in overall poverty in India. He insisted that the 1999-2000 survey was well designed and supervised, and he further defended that just because the numbers did not appear to fit preconceived notions about poverty in India, they should not be dismissed outright^[160]. Nicholas Stern, vice president of the World Bank, has published defenses of the poverty reduction statistics. He argues that increasing globalization and investment opportunities have contributed significantly to the reduction of poverty in the country. India, has shown one of the clearest co-relation trends of globalization with the accelerated rise in per-capita income. ^{[161] [162]}

• Infrastructure - The social infrastructure in India ^[163] such as roads, power grid, water, communications infrastructure, housing and education are often below standards, and not catching up with the tune of its economic progress. ^[164] Continued poor infrastructure might serve as a bottleneck to further economic development. The government is, however, improving the infrastructure, such as expanding the freeway and highway system and bringing it up to global standards. As of 2005, India only had 4,885 km of central-divided expressways^[165], while the U.S. and China have 90,000 km and 41,000 km of expressways, respectively. ^[166]

• Disorganization - India's continual economic prosperity is also hindered by bad governance and ubiquitous red tape^[167] (‘Bureaucratic Raj'^[168]). Retrogressive government regulations affect many areas. For example, in some states, black outs and power rationing are common due to underinvestment, differing state and local regulations, etc.

• Inflation and overheating - Despite India's growth spurt of 8% p.a. in recent years, its sustainable pace is still much lower than China's, which puts its economy more at risk of overheating and rising inflation.^[169] The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has acknowledged the risk of overheating and has been tightening monetary policy steadily. It is debatable whether this alone will be sufficient to ease inflationary pressures. The economy is running near or above capacity, and the RBI has noted that production must rise at a pace sufficient to match overall GDP growth if further inflationary pressures are to be avoided. The Indian government has said that much of the rise in inflation recently can be attributed to short-term supply constraints, such as a shortage of key foodstuffs thanks to an erratic summer monsoon. ^[170]

• Energy Dependence & Costs - India heavily depends on foreign oil - a phenomenon likely to continue until non-fossil/renewable energy technology becomes economically viable in the country.^[171] To avert an energy crisis, India is desperately seeking alternate means of energy. India can sustain its growth to higher trajectories only by the co-operation of other countries. As for now, India is energetically expensive since India has to import over 70% of its energy,^[172] thus making costs of comforts - like personal car or even air conditioning - extremely high. It is however, steadily combating its energy issues.

• Unemployment - Unless India finds a quick way to generate jobs, its population of unemployed youths could be a reason of unstability.^[173] India's growth in the services sector and Information Technology sector has not been matched by growth in manufacturing which can provide more jobs.^[174] Some claim that this sector may lose importance in the future. ^[175] India is leveraging on new sectors like the KPO (Knowledge Process Outsourcing)^{[176] [177]}.

• Health - India's health scenario is dismal with diseases and malnutrition constantly affecting the poorest quarter of the populace.^{[178] [179] [180]} Mortality is still relatively high and the bane of AIDS is spreading quickly.^[181] According to a report of United Nations Development Programme, India has the highest population living with AIDS/HIV and its economy might suffer a setback if it does not check the problem of the virus' spread. It is estimated that India's economic growth will decline by 0.86 percentage annually if the AIDS problem is not properly dealt with. To improve the situation, a number of projects such as the building of hospital chains (like the Apollo Hospitals, amongst others) has laid the foundation for a health system that matches global standards. However, these hospitals are sometimes used by foreigners as a cheap yet effective source of health services and much remains to be done for India's very poor.

• Low Literacy - As per the 2001 India census, India's national literacy is only 65.2 percent.^{[182] [183]} Literacy drive is spreading slowly to other states.^[184] India's youth (age 15 to 24) literacy rate was 76.4% between 2000 and 2004.^[185] At current rates India will take no less than 20 years for a literacy of 95%.^[186]. Literacy in India is not homogeneous, some states in India have more impressive literacy rates than others. Kerala, a south-indian state widely recognized as the most well-educated state in India, recorded an impressive 90.92% literacy rate in 2001. ^[187] On the other hand the north-indian state of Bihar lags behind with 47.53%.^[188] India's adult literacy rates (61.3% in 2002), is just a little better compared to other nations in South Asia except Sri Lanka's 92%, ^[189] with Nepal next at 44%, Pakistan at 41.5% and Bangladesh the lowest at 41.1%.

• Climate or Environment Problems - The majority of India lies in the tropical climate zone, which may have a negative impact on its agricultural and overall economic development. The climate thesis of economic development was first argued by Adam Smith and recently by David Landes in his The Wealth and Poverty of Nations. Tropical areas generally average enough rainfall, but the timing is often irregular and unpredictable. The rain drops are large and the rate of fall often torrential. One answer to irregular moisture is storage and irrigation, but this is countered in these regions by incredibly high rates of evaporation. In the Agra region of India, for example, rainfall exceeds the needs of local agriculture for only two months in the year, and the excess held in the soil in those wet months dries up in only three weeks.^[190] Tropical zones are also more prone to endemic water-borne and parasitic diseases such as cholera and malaria.^[191] As a result of climate change, the Gangotri Glacier, among others, is receding.^{[192] [193]} Also, of the 3 million premature deaths in the world that occur each year due to outdoor and indoor air pollution, the highest number are assessed to occur in India.^[194]

[edit] Social issues

Main article: Reservations in India

• Communal violence- India has a diverse mix of various religions and races. The majority are Hindus by religion, followed by Muslims, Sikhs, Christians, Jains, Buddhists, Bahaii and many more. Though most religions in India have been practising religious tolerance in their histories, the partition and subsequent terrorism had created some degree of uneasiness among some. The uneducated masses of these various groups sometimes get at odds with one another.^{[195] [196] [197]} However in recent years, relations between the different religious groups have considerably changed for better. For instance, a real chunk of India's celebrities - sporting legends, film stars, industrialists, artists, politicians, scientists, head-of-state, etc - have come from various non-majority roots, representing the emerging face of new diverse India.^[198]

• Social Divide - The problem of India's social divide is often linked to its millenia-old caste system.^[199] In an attempt to eliminate the caste system, the Indian government has introduced special quotas for low-caste Indians in educational institutions and jobs. The measure is with the motive of helping lower-caste Indians to pursue higher education and thereby elevate their standard of life. However, the system is often criticised about its effectiveness as so called creamy layer (rich among the lower caste) get non-needed advantage & leave other lower caste groups poor only.^{[200] [201]} There also have been cases of reverse-discrimination and persecution of upper castes by lower castes ^[202][203].

[edit] See also

• Indosphere
• Economy of India
• Culture of India
• Foreign relations of India
• Tourism in India
• Military of India
• History of India

[edit] References

[edit] External links

Articles

• India: Towards the Millennium Development Goals, UN
• India Economy grows at torrid pace - New York Times
• The Changing Geopolitical Landscape by National Intelligence Council
• Prospects for China and India in the 21st Century, Marvin Cetron, World future Society Conference, 2004.
• China and India Hold World in Balance
• India and the World: Balancing Agenda
• India: The next knowledge superpower
• A New World Economy by Businessweek
• China and India by Businessweek
• India: the Next Economic Giant, 2004, By Lowy Institute, Australia.
• Newsweek Coverpage on India
• Businessweek on India's attractiveness
• Socioeconomic statistics and demographics of Asians in America
• New World-Order Paradigm: The Best of the West Agrees It’s Moving East
• Relocating to India
• India, China, and the United States: A Delicate Balance
• Indian economy on take-off stage with demographic bonus
• Indian Economy Overview
• Made for India
• China and India - The Future of Investors
• A Race to the Future
• Indians on India Vision
• India Awakens by Michael Elliott (Time.com)
• What's Behind Asia's Gold Rush? A Health and Demographic analysis by Harvard School of Public Health
• Is India a science superpower?
• The New India, and the Old One
• China, India Superpower - Not so fast.
• India's Economic Contrasts
• Why India lags behind China
• Does demography advantage India?
• The end of Gandhi's dream: India's economic boom and bust
• Why Has China’s Economy Taken Off Faster than India’s? A Research Paper by Harvard and Tsingua University faculties, presented at Stanford Center for International Development
• India is China's economic equal? Bah!

Books

• The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century Thomas L.Friedman
• Three Billion New Capitalists by Clyde Prestowitz
• India Unbound: The Social and Economic Revolution from Independence to the Global Information Age by Gurcharan Das (ISBN 0-385-72074-2)
• India: An Investor’s Guide to the Next Economic Superpower by Aaron Chaze
• Social Problems in India/B.K. Prasad
• Energy Crisis in India by M. G. Mehetre
• India: Emerging Power by Stephen P. Cohen (ISBN 0-8157-1501-3)
• India 2020 by A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, Y.S. Rajan (ISBN 0-14-027833-8)
• India as an Emerging Power by Sumit Ganguly (ISBN 0-7146-8321-3)

Media

• World is Flat, T. Friedman, Colloquim Recording at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
• One Land, two planets (listen)

Websites

• An information portal on India's rising status

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