User:Kgrr/Peak uranium

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Further information: Uranium depletion and Hubbert peak theory

Peak uranium is the point in time at which the maximum global uranium production rate is reached, after which the rate of production enters its terminal decline. While Uranium is used in nuclear weapons, the primary use of the rare Uranium-235 isotope is for energy generation via nuclear fission in a nuclear power reactor.^[1] It is a finite resource, and therefore considered a non-renewable energy source,^[2][3] though some argue that if the hurdles to breeder reactors can be overcome, uranium would become equivalent to a renewable resource since they estimate that uranium will last as long as the Sun just like wind power and other renewables.^[4]

The concept of peak uranium follows from M. King Hubbert's Hubbert peak theory, which is most commonly associated with Peak oil. Hubbert saw oil as a resource which would soon run out, but believed Uranium had much more promise as an energy source.^[5] Hubbert believed that breeder reactors and nuclear reprocessing, which were new technologies at the time, would allow Uranium to be used as a power source for a very long time. The technologies Hubbert envisioned have not been shown to be economically feasible or widely deployed.^[6] As a result, the vast majority of uranium is used in a "once-through" cycle. As for any finite resource, the Hubbert peak theory still applies.

According to the Hubbert Peak Theory, Hubbert's peaks are the points where production of a resource, such as uranium, peaks. From then on, the rate of resource production enters a terminal decline. At a Hubbert's peak, the supply of a resource can no longer fulfill the previous demand. As a result of the law of supply and demand, at this point the market shifts from a buyer's market ^[7] to a seller's market.^[8]

Many countries are not able to supply their own uranium demands anymore. Eleven countries have already exhausted their uranium resources.^[9][10] As the rate of uranium production peaks and begins to fall in one country after another, the demand for uranium continues to grow due to an increased demand for electricity and industrialization requiring the construction of more nuclear power plants.^{[citation needed]}

Two technologies, nuclear reprocessing and breeding could perhaps delay peak uranium if enough were built and they could provide enough nuclear fuel to bridge the gap between the demand and the primary source of uranium.

Nuclear reprocessing, sometimes referred to as recycling, is one method of mitigating the eventual peak of Uranium production. This involves the recovery of fissile material from spent fuel. Although reprocessing of nuclear fuel is done in few countries, such as France, the United Kingdom and Japan, the United States stopped the practice in the late 1970's because of its high costs and the plutonium it puts into circulation.^[6] In 2005, U.S. legislators proposed a program to reprocess the spent fuel that has accumulated at power plants. However at present prices, such a program is still significantly more expensive than disposing spent fuel and mining fresh uranium.^[6]

At higher uranium prices breeder reactors may become economically justified since uranium is bred into plutonium, another fissile fuel. Many nations have ongoing research. China, India, and Japan plan large scale utilization of breeder reactors during the coming decades. 300 reactor-years experience has been gained in operating them.^[11]

Contents 1 Uranium demand 2 Uranium supply 2.1 Production 2.2 Reserves 2.2.1 Known conventional resources 2.2.2 Undiscovered conventional resources 2.3 Secondary resources 2.3.1 Inventories 2.3.2 Government Inventories 2.3.3 Decommissioning nuclear weapons 2.3.4 Reprocessing and Recycling 2.4 Unconventional resources 2.4.1 Phosphates 2.4.2 Seawater 2.4.3 Uraniferous coal ash 2.4.4 Oil shales 2.5 Increasing reactor efficiency 2.6 Breeding 2.6.1 Fast breeder 2.6.2 Thermal breeder 3 Supply-demand gap 4 Peak uranium for individual nations 5 World peak uranium 5.1 Pessimistic predictions for peak uranium 5.2 Optimistic predictions for peak uranium 6 Possible effects and consequences of Peak uranium 6.1 Uranium price 6.1.1 Number of Contracts 6.1.2 Hedge Funds 6.1.2.1 Mining 6.1.2.2 Electric Utilities 6.2 Substitutes 7 Historical understanding of world uranium supply limits 8 See also 9 References 10 External references 10.1 Books 10.2 Articles 10.3 External links

[edit] Uranium demand

Main articles: World population, Global warming, and Peak oil

The world demand for uranium in 1996 was over 68,000 tonnes per year.^[13] And that number is expected to increase to 80,000 to 100,000 tonnes per year by 2025 due to the number of new nuclear power plants coming on line.^[14]

According to Cameco Corporation, the demand for uranium is directly linked to the amount of electricity generated by nuclear power plants. Reactor capacity is growing slowly, reactors are being run more productively, with higher capacity factors, and reactor power levels. Improved reactor performance translates into greater uranium consumption.^[15]

Nuclear power stations of 1000 megawatt electrical generation capacity (1000 MWe or 1 gigawatt electrical = 1GWe) require around 200 tonnes (metric tons) of uranium per year.^[16] For example, the United States has 103 operating reactors with an average generation capacity of 950 MWe demanded over 22,000 tonnes of uranium in 2005. As population and industrialization increases, more nuclear power plants will be built. As the number of nuclear power plants increase, so does the demand for uranium.

Another factor to consider is population growth. Electricity consumption is determined in part by economic and population growth According to data from the CIA's 2007 World Factbook, the world human population currently is 6,602,224,175 (July 2007 est.) and it is increasing by 1.167% per year. This means a growth of 211,090 persons every day.^[17] According to the UN, by 2050 it is estimated that the earth's human population will be 9.07 billion. ^[18] That's 37% increase from today. 62% of the people will live in Africa, Southern Asia and Eastern Asia.^[19] The largest energy-consuming class in the history of earth is being produced in world’s most populated countries, China and India. Both plan massive nuclear energy expansion programs. This is being repeated in dozens of lesser developed countries, from Turkey and Indonesia to Vietnam and Venezuela to meet the needs of their burgeoning middle classes.

As countries get more industrialized and their economy grows, so does the demand for electricity. Nearly 2 billion people across the planet have no electricity. The World Nuclear Association (WNA) believes nuclear energy could reduce the fossil fuel burden of generating the new demand for electricity. The WNA forecasts a 40-percent jump in worldwide electricity demand over the next five years.^[20] As countries get more industrialized, the higher their Human Development Index (HDI). The higher the HDI, the higher the electric consumption.^[21]

As more fossil fuels are used to supply the growing energy needs of an increasing population, the more greenhouse gases are produced. Some proponents of nuclear power believe that building more nuclear power plants can reduce greenhouse emissions.

As world oil is expected to peak early this century, alternatives for gasoline and diesel for powering transportation are being sought. One of the promising solutions are hybrid and electric vehicles. Some experts believe that these vehicles will require 160 new power plants. Others believe none. The true figure lies somewhere between.^[22][23]

As countries are not able to supply their own needs economically from their own mines have resorted to importing better grades of uranium from elsewhere. For example, owners of U.S. nuclear power reactors bought 67 million pounds of uranium in 2006. Out of that 84%, or 56 million pounds, were imported from foreign suppliers, according to the Energy Department.^[24]

[edit] Uranium supply

Main article: Uranium market

Uranium occurs naturally in many rocks, and even in seawater. However, like other metals, it is seldom sufficiently concentrated to be economically recoverable.^[25] Like any other resource, uranium can't be mined at any desired rate, nor can every last ounce be mined. No matter the technology, at some point it is just too costly to mine lower grade ores. One particular life cycle study argue that below 0.01–0.02% ore content the energy required to extract and process the ore is so high that the energy needed for supplying the fuel, operation of the reactor and waste disposal comes close to the energy which can be gained by burning the uranium in the reactor.^[9]

According to the OECD redbook, the world consumed 67,000 tonnes of uranium in 2002. However, only 36,000 tonnes of this was produced from primary sources, with the balance coming from secondary sources, in particular stockpiles of natural and enriched uranium, decommissioned nuclear weapons, the reprocessing of natural and enriched uranium and the re-enrichment of depleted uranium tails.^[26]

[edit] Production

See also: Uranium mining and Hubbert peak theory

Peak uranium refers to the peak of the entire planet's uranium production. Like other Hubbert peaks, the rate of uranium production on Earth will enter a terminal decline. According to Robert Vance of the OECD's Nuclear Energy Agency, the world production rate of uranium has already reached its peak in 1980, amounting to 69,683 tonnes of U₃O₈ from 22 countries. However, this is not due to lack of production capacity. Historically, uranium mines and mills around the world have operated at about 76% of total production capacity, varying within a range of 57% and 89%. The fact that production has never matched capacity is largely attributable to the uranium industry having to lower output to match demand for primary supply. Slower growth of nuclear power and competition from secondary supply significantly reduced demand for freshly mined uranium, until very recently. Secondary supplies include military and commercial inventories, enriched uranium tails, reprocessed uranium and mixed oxide fuel.^[28]

The world's top uranium producers are Canada (28% of world production) and Australia (23%). Other major producers include Kazakhstan, Russia, Namibia and Niger.^[29] In 1996, the world produced 39,000 tonnes of Uranium.^[30] And in 2005, the world produced a peak of 41,720 tonnes of uranium,^[27] although the the production continues to not meet demand. Only 62% of the requirements of power utilities are supplied by mines. The balance comes from inventories held by utilities and other fuel cycle companies, inventories held by governments, used reactor fuel that has been reprocessed, recycled materials from military nuclear programs and uranium in depleted uranium stockpiles.^[31] The plutonium from dismantled cold war nuclear weapon stockpiles is drying up and will end by 2013. The industry is trying to find and develop new uranium mines, mainly in Canada, Australia and Kazakhstan. However, those under development will fill only half the current gap.^[32]

Of the ten largest uranium mines in the world (Mc Arthur River, Ranger, Rossing, Kraznokamensk, Olympic Dam, Rabbit Lake, Akouta, Arlit, Beverly, and McClean Lake), by 2020, six will be depleted, two will be in their final stages, one will be upgrading and one will be producing.^[33]

World primary mining production fell 5% in 2006 over that in 2005. The biggest producers, Canada and Australia saw falls of 15% and 20%, with only Kazakhstan showing an increase of 21%.^[34] This can be explained by two major events that recently occurred have slowed world uranium production. Canada's Cameco mine at Cigar lake is the largest, highest-grade uranium mine in the world. In 2006 it flooded. Now there is uncertainty about when and if it ever will be developed.^[35] A lot of new uranium mines to need to be developed just to replace Cigar Lake. Cameco expects to bring their mine back on line in 2010.^[36] And, in March 2007, the market endured another blow when a cyclone struck the Ranger mine in Australia, which produces 14.3 million pounds or 5.5 thousand tonnes of uranium a year. The mine's owner, Energy Resources of Australia, declared force majeure on deliveries and said production would be impacted into the second half of 2007.^[37] This caused some to speculate that peak uranium has arrived.^[38][39]

[edit] Reserves

Reserves are the most readily available resources. Resources that are known to exist and easy to mine are called "Known conventional resources". Resources that thought to exist but have not been mined are classified under "Undiscovered conventional resources". ^[40]

[edit] Known conventional resources

Known conventional resources are comprised of "Reasonably Assured Resources" and "Estimated Additional Resources-I".^[40]

About 96% of the global uranium reserves are found in these ten countries: Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Namibia, Uzbekistan, USA, Niger, and Russia^[41] Out of these countries, Australia, Kazakhstan and Canada have the world's largest deposits of uranium. Australia's resources has just under 30% of the world's reasonably assured resources and inferred resources of uranium - about 1,142,000 tonnes.^[25] Kazakhstan has about 17% of the world's reserves, or about 817,000 tonnes ^[42] And Canada has 444,000 tonnes of uranium, representing about 12%.^[25] On the other hand several countries no longer mine uranium.^[10]

Various agencies have tried to estimate how long these resources will last. The European Commission said in 2001 that at the current level of uranium consumption, known uranium resources would last 42 years. When added to military and secondary sources, the resources could be stretched to 72 years. Yet this rate of usage assumes that nuclear power continues to provide only a fraction of the world’s energy supply. If electric capacity were increased six-fold, then the 72-year supply would last just 12 years.^[43] The world's present measured resources of uranium, economically recoverable at a price of 130 USD/kg according to the industry groups OECD, NEA and IAEA, are enough to last for some 80 years at current consumption ^[44] According to the Australian Uranium Association, yet another industry group, assuming the world's current rate of consumption at 66,500 tonnes of Uranium per year and the world's present measured resources of uranium (4.7 Mt) are enough to last for some 70 years.^[42]

[edit] Undiscovered conventional resources

Conventional resources are thought to be sufficient at current consumption rates for a few decades. This could be extended to several hundred years by exploitation of undiscovered conventional resources. Undiscovered conventional resources can be broken up into two classifications "Estimated Additional Resources-II" and "Speculative Resources".^[40]

It will take a significant exploration and development effort to locate the remaining deposits and begin mining them. However, since the entire earth's geography has not been explored for uranium at this time, there is still the potential to discover exploitable resources.^[45] The OECD redbook cites quite a few areas still open to exploration throughout the world. Many countries are conducting complete aeromagnetic gradiometer radiometric surveys to get an estimate the size of their undiscovered mineral resources. When combined with a gamma-ray survey it can locate undiscovered uranium and thorium deposits.^[46] The USGS issued its last undiscovered conventional resources report in 1992.

[edit] Secondary resources

Secondary resources are essentially recovered uranium from other sources such as nuclear weapons, inventories, reprocessing and re-enrichment. Since secondary resources have exceedingly low discovery costs and very low production costs, they may have displaced a significant portion of primary production. Secondary uranium was and is available essentially instantly. However, new primary production will not be. Essentially, secondary supply is a "one-time" finite supply.^[47]

[edit] Inventories

Inventories are kept by a variety of organizations - government, commercial and others.^[48]

[edit] Government Inventories

The US DOE keeps inventories for security of supply in order to cover for emergencies where uranium is not available at any price. And should such an emergency arise, DOE will obtain the highest value to the benefit of the taxpayers.^[49] In the event of a major supply disruption, the Department may not have sufficient uranium to meet a severe uranium shortage in the United States.

[edit] Decommissioning nuclear weapons

Main article: MOX fuel

Both the US and Russia have committed to convert their nuclear weapons into fuel for electricity production. This program is known as the Megatons to Megawatts program. Down blending 500 tonnes of Russian weapons HEU will result in about 15,000 tonnes of LEU over 20 years. This is equivalent to about 152,000 tonnes of natural U, or just over twice annual world demand. Since 2000, 30 tonnes of military HEU is displacing about 10,600 tonnes of uranium oxide mine production per year which represents some 13% of world reactor requirements.^[50]

Plutonium recovered from nuclear weapons or other sources can be blended with uranium fuel to produce a mixed-oxide fuel. In June 2000, the USA and Russia agreed to dispose of 34 tonnes each of weapons-grade plutonium by 2014. The US undertook to pursue sel-funded dual track program (immobilisation and MOX). The G-7 nations provided US$ 1 billion to set up Russia's program. The latter was initially MOX specifically designed for VVER reactors, the Russian version of the Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR), the high cost being because this was not part of Russia's fuel cycle policy. This MOX fuel for both countries is equivalent to about 12,000 tonnes of natural uranium.^[51]

[edit] Reprocessing and Recycling

Main articles: Nuclear reprocessing and Reprocessed uranium

Most of the spent fuel components can be recovered and recycled. About two-thirds of the U.S. spent fuel inventory is uranium. This includes residual fissile uranium-235 that can be recycled directly as fuel for heavy water reactors or enriched again for use as fuel in light water reactors.^[52]

Spent fuel can be re-enriched to recover plutonium and uranium. When used nuclear fuel is reprocessed using the de facto standard PUREX method, both plutonium and uranium are recovered separately. The spent fuel contains about 1% Plutonium. If used on fuel from commercial power reactors, plutonium extracted using PUREX typically contain too much Pu-240 to be useful in a nuclear weapon.

The spent fuel is primarily composed of uranium, the vast majority of which has not been consumed or transmuted in the nuclear reactor. At a typical concentration of around 96% by mass in the used nuclear fuel, uranium is the largest component of used nuclear fuel.^[53] The composition of reprocessed uranium depends on the time the fuel has been in the reactor, but it is mostly U-238. Typically it will have about 1% U-235 and small amounts of U-232 and U-236. However, reprocessed uranium is also a waste product because it is contaminated and undesirable for reuse in reactors.^[54] During its irradiation in a reactor, uranium is profoundly modified. The uranium that leaves the reprocessing plant contains all the isotopes of uranium between uranium-232 and uranium 238 except uranium-237, which is rapidly transformed into neptunium-237. The undesirable isotopic contaminants are:

• Uranium-232 (whose decay products emit strong gamma radiation making handling more difficult), and
• Uranium-234 (which is fertile material but can affect reactivity differently than uranium-238).
• Uranium-236 (which absorbs neutrons without fissioning and becomes neptunium-237 which is one of the most difficult isotopes for long-term disposal in a deep geological repository)
• Daughter products of uranium-232: bismuth-212, thallium-208.^[55]

Reprocessed uranium is chemically separated during nuclear reprocessing - it is uranium, containing several different uranium nuclides as outlined above, as well as daughter products which "in-grow" into the uranium after it is separated, due to radioactive decay of short-lived uranium nuclides. Since the uranium is chemically separated from the other materials present within the used nuclear fuel, other substances, different chemical elements such as fission products, plutonium or other actinides, which are present in the used nuclear fuel, are not present in the separated uranium.

At present, reprocessing and the use of plutonium as reactor fuel is far more expensive than using uranium fuel and disposing of the spent fuel directly—even if the fuel is only reprocessed once.^[54] However, nuclear reprocessing becomes more economically attractive, compared to mining more uranium, as uranium prices continue to increase.

Other methods of reprocessing have been developed, but they have been obsoleted by PUREX. Also, new methods of reprocessing are being developed to improve the PUREX process.

Currently, there are eleven operating reprocessing plants operating in the world. Out of those, there are only two large-scale commercially operated plants for the reprocessing of spent fuel elements from light water reactors with throughputs of more than 1,000 tonnes of uranium per year. These are La Hague, France with a capacity of 1,600 tonnes per year and Sellafield, England at 1,200 tonnes uranium per year. The rest are small experimental plants.^[56]

The total recovery rate from reprocessing currently is only a small fraction compared to the growing gap between the rate demanded and the rate at which the primary uranium supply is providing uranium.

[edit] Unconventional resources

Unconventional resources are occurrences that require novel technologies for their exploitation and/or use. Often unconventional resources occur in low-concentration. The exploitation of unconventional uranium requires additional research and development efforts for which there is no imminent economic need, given the large conventional resource base and the option of reprocessing spent fuel.^[57] Phosphates, seawater, uraniferous coal ash, and some type of oil shales are examples of unconventional resources being considered.

[edit] Phosphates

The soaring price of uranium may cause long-dormant operations to extract uranium from phosphate.^[58] The technology for recovering uranium from phosphate mines is mature.^[57]

Worldwide, there were approximately 400 wet-process phosphoric acid plants in operation. Assuming an average recoverable content of 100 ppm of uranium, this scenario would result in a maximum theoretical annual output of 3700 tonnes U₃O₈.^[59] Historical operating costs for the uranium recovery from phosphoric acid range from $48-119/Kg U₃O₈.^[60] These operating costs are by far higher than uranium market prices, and most uranium recovery plants have been closed.

[edit] Seawater

The uranium concentration of seawater is approximately 3 parts per billion but the quantity of contained uranium is vast. Researchers estimate there are some 4 billion tonnes. This amounts to 700 times more than known terrestrial resources recoverable at a price of up to $130 per kg of U₃O₈.^{[citation needed]} If half of this resource could ultimately be recovered, it could support for 6,500 years 3,000 GW of nuclear capacity.^{[citation needed]}

One method of extracting uranium from seawater is using a uranium-specific nonwoven fabric as an absorbent. The total amount of uranium recovered from three collection boxes containing 350 Kg of fabric was >1 kg of yellow cake after 240 days of submersion in the ocean.^[61] According to the OECD, uranium may be extracted from seawater using this method for about $300/KgU ^[26] The experiment by Seko et al was repeated by Tamada et al in 2006. They found that the cost varied from ¥15,000 to ¥88,000 (Yen) depending on assumptions and "The lowest cost attainable now is ¥25,000 with 4g-U/kg-adsorbent used in the sea area of Okinawa, with 18 repetitionuses [sic]." With the May, 2008 exchange rate, this was about $240/Kg U ^[62]

Among the other methods to recover uranium from sea water, two seem promising: algae bloom to concentrate Uranium^[63] and nanomembrane filtering.^[64]

So far, no more than a very small amount of uranium has been recovered from sea water in a laboratory.^[57]

[edit] Uraniferous coal ash

An international consortium has set out to explore the commercial extraction of uranium from uraniferous coal ash from coal power stations located in Yunnan province, China.^[57] The first laboratory scale amount of yellowcake uranium recovered from uraniferous coal ash was announced in 2007.^[65] The three coal power stations at Xiaolongtang, Dalongtang and Kaiyuan have piled up their waste ash. Initial tests from the Xiaolongtang ash pile indicate that the material contains (160-180 parts per million uranium), suggesting a total of some 2085 tonnes U3O8 could be recovered from that ash pile alone.

[edit] Oil shales

Some oil shales contain uranium as a byproduct. Between 1946 and 1952, a marine type of Dictyonema shale was used for uranium production in Sillamäe, Estonia, and between 1950 and 1989 alum shale was used in Sweden for the same purpose.^[66]

[edit] Increasing reactor efficiency

Current reactors in operation around the world are generally considered second- or third-generation systems, with the first-generation systems having been retired some time ago. New reactor designs are being developed and tested that are capable of extracting more energy from the uranium than today's reactors. The current and planned increases in efficiency are not significant enough to avert peak uranium.

Generation III reactors are characterized by improvements in the design over generation II nuclear reactor designs that incorporate evolutionary improvements in design which have been developed during the lifetime of the generation II reactor designs, such as improved fuel technology, passive safety systems and standardized design.

Low-temperature nuclear plants operate at about 32% thermal efficiency. By increasing the thermal efficiency, nuclear reactors become more fuel efficient.

Most notable for increasing the thermal efficiency is the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR). They will have a direct-cycle gas turbine generator and thermal efficiency about 42%.^[67]

The CANDU-X is a supercritical light water coolant reactor type that can provide a 40% thermal efficiency.^[68]

There is also the US-APWR design. It will be able to produce efficiencies as high as 39%. US design certification application was in January 2008 with approval expected in 2011.^[69] The first units may be built for TXU at Comanche Peak near Dallas, Texas.

The increases in thermal efficiency are notable for reducing the operating costs of nuclear power plants but will extend uranium by only a small percentage.

Generation IV reactors are a set of theoretical nuclear reactor designs currently being researched and are not expected to be available for commercial construction before 2030.

[edit] Breeding

Main article: Breeder reactor

A breeder reactor produces more nuclear fuel than it consumes and thus can extend the uranium supply. It typically turns the dominant isotope in natural uranium, uranium-238, into plutonium-239, another nuclear fuel that can also be used in nuclear weapons. Breeding is also possible with thorium-232 to produce uranium-233.

The breeding of plutonium fuel in Fast Breeder Reactors (FBR), known as the plutonium economy, was for a time believed to be the future of nuclear power. The few commercial breeder reactors that have been built have been riddled with technical and budgetary problems. Some sources critical of breeder reactors have gone so far to call them the SST of the 80's.^[70]

Breeder reactors are specifically designed to create more fissile material than it consumes. A breeder, in addition to consuming U-235, converts fertile U-238 and into Pu-239, a fissile fuel. Breeders may be technically feasible, but they are complex, costly and plagued with problems. Uranium turned out to be far more plentiful than anticipated, and the price of uranium declined rapidly (with an upward blip in the 1970s). This is why the US halted their use in 1977^[71] and the UK abandoned the idea in 1994.^[72]

There are two types of breeders: Fast breeders and thermal breeders.

[edit] Fast breeder

Main article: Fast breeder reactor

Fast Breeder Reactors, which use plutonium, are called so because they have no moderator (heavy water or light water) and breed more fuel than they consume. The word 'fast' in fast breeder refers to the speed of the neutrons in the reactor's core. The higher the energy in the neutrons have, the higher the breeding ratio or the more uranium is changed into plutonium.

Significant technical and materials problems were encountered with FBRs. Geological exploration showed that scarcity was not going to be a concern for some time. By the 1980s, due to both factors, it was clear that FBRs would not be commercially competitive with existing light water reactors. The economics of FBRs still depend on the value of the plutonium fuel which is bred, relative to the cost of fresh uranium.^[73] Despite massive research efforts, attempts to increase the uranium reserves with fast breeder reactors have failed worldwide. We do not yet have the know-how to technically and commercially exploit fast breeder reactors on a large scale.^[74] Research continues in several countries with working prototypes Phénix in France, the BN-600 reactor in Russia, and the Monju scheduled to be restarted in October 2008.

On February 16, 2006 the U.S., France and Japan signed an arrangement to research and develop sodium-cooled fast breeder reactors in support of the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership.^[75] Breeder reactors are also being studied under the Generation IV reactor program.

Early prototypes have been plagued with problems. The liquid sodium cooling agent is highly flammable, bursting into flames if it comes into contact with air and exploding if it comes into contact with water. Japan's fast breeder Monju Nuclear Power Plant has been scheduled to re-open in 2008, 13 years after a serious accident and fire involving a sodium leak. In 1997 France shut down its Superphenix reactor, while the Phenix, built earlier, is scheduled to close in 2009.^[76]

[edit] Thermal breeder

Main article: Breeder reactor#The thermal breeder reactor

Thorium is an alternate fuel cycle to uranium. Thorium is three times more plentiful than uranium. Thorium-232 is in itself not fissionable, but fertile. It can be made into fissionable uranium-233 with a breeder reactor. In turn, the uranium-233 can be fissioned like uranium-235 with the advantage that the daughter products are less radioactive than the ones from uranium 235. Thorium is also a finite resource and shares many of the concerns of the public regarding nuclear power or uranium fuel cycles.

Despite the thorium fuel cycle having a number of attractive features, development on a large scale can run into difficulties:^[77]

• The resulting U-233 fuel is expensive to fabricate.
• The U-233 chemically separated from the irradiated thorium fuel is highly radioactive.
• Separated U-233 is always contaminated with traces of U-232
• Thorium is difficult to recycle due to highly radioactive Th-228
• If the U-233 can be separated on its own, it becomes a weapons proliferation risk
• And, there are technical problems in reprocessing.

The first successful commercial reactor at the Indian Point power station (Indian Point Unit 1) ran on Thorium. The first core did not live up to expectations.^[78]

Indian interest in thorium is motivated by their substantial reserves. Almost a third of the world's thorium reserves are in India^[79] India's Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) says that it will simultaneously construct four more breeder reactors of 500 MWe each including two at Kalpakkam.^[80]

[edit] Supply-demand gap

Current global uranium production meets only 58 per cent of demand, with the shortfall made up largely from rapidly shrinking stockpiles. The shortfall is expected to run at 51 million pounds a year on average from next year to 2020.^[81] During the last 15 years, the shortfall between production and requirements was made up by excess commercial inventories, uranium released from military use and other secondary sources. These are now in decline, and the shortfall will increasingly need to be made up by primary production.^[82]

Uranium demand, mining production and deficit in tonnes^[16]

Country	Uranium required 2006-08[83]	% of world demand	Indigenous mining production 2006[84]	Deficit
USA	18,918	29.3%	2,000	16,918
France	10,527	16.3%	0	10,527
Japan	7,659	11.8%	0	7,659
Russia	3,365	5.2%	4,009	-644
Germany	3,332	5.2%	68.03	3,264
South Korea	3,109	4.8%	0	3,109
UK	2,199	3.4%	0	2,199
Rest of world	15,506	24%	40,327	-24,821
Total	64,615	100%	46,403	18,211

[edit] Peak uranium for individual nations

Eleven countries, Germany, the Czech Republic, France, Congo, Gabon, Bulgaria, Tajikistan, Hungary, Romania, Spain, Portugal and Argentina, have already peaked their uranium production and exhausted their uranium resources and must rely on imports for their nuclear programs or abandon them.^[9][10] Other countries have reached their peak production of Uranium and are currently on a decline.

• Germany

Between 1946 and 1990, Wismut, the former East German uranium mining company, produced a total of around 220,000 tonnes of uranium. During its peak, production exceeded 7000 tonnes per year. In 1990, uranium mining was discontinued as a consequence of the German unification.^[9] The company could not compete on the world market. The production cost of its uranium was three times the world price.^[85]

• India

India, having already hit its production peak, is finding itself in making a tough choice between using its modest and dwindling uranium resources as a source to keep its weapons programs rolling or it can use them to produce electricity.^[86]

• Sweden - 1969

Sweden started uranium production in 1965 but was never profitable. They stopped mining uranium in 1969.^[87] Sweden then embarked on a massive project based on American light water reactors. Nowadays, Sweden imports its uranium mostly from Canada, Australia and the former Soviet Union.

• UK - 1981

The U.K.'s uranium production peaked in 1981 and the supply is running out. Yet the UK still plans to build more nuclear power plants.^[32]

• France - 1988

In France uranium production attained a peak of 3394 tonnes in 1988. At the time, this was enough for France to meet the half of its reactor demand from domestic sources.^[88] By 1997, production was 1/5 of the 1991 levels. France markedly reduced its market share since 1997.^[89] In 2002, France ran out of uranium.^[84]

• U.S. - 1988, 2000

The U.S. production had peaked in 1998 4.8 million pounds of uranium oxide (U₃O₈), then dipped in production for a few years and has since increased again.^[90]

Uranium mining declined with the last open pit mine shutting down in 1992 (Shirley Basin, Wyoming. United States production occurred in the following states (in descending order): New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Texas, Arizona, Florida, Washington, and South Dakota. The collapse of uranium prices caused all conventional mining to cease by 1992. "In-situ" recovery or ISR has continued primarily in Wyoming and adjacent Nebraska as well has recently restarted in Texas. US production reached a peak of 21,850 short tons (19,822 tonnes) in 2000.^[91] Rising uranium prices since 2003 have increased interest in uranium mining in the United States and production is rising. In 2006. U.S. uranium mines produced 4.7 million pounds of uranium oxide (U₃O₈), 57 percent more than in 2005.^[90]

• Canada - 1959, 2001

The first phase of Canadian uranium production peaked at more than 12,000 tonnes in 1959.^[92] The 1970s saw renewed interest in exploration and resulted in major discoveries in northern Saskatchewan's Athabasca Basin. Production peaked its uranium production a second time at 12,522 tonnes in 2001. Experts believe that it will take more than ten years to open new mines.^[43]

[edit] World peak uranium

[edit] Pessimistic predictions for peak uranium

All the following sources predict peak uranium (when uranium demand exceeds supply):

• 1980 Robert Vance

Robert Vance^[93], while looking back at 40 years of Uranium production through all of the Red Books, found that peak global production was achieved in 1980 at 69,683 tU from 22 countries.^[28] In 2003, uranium production totaled 35,600 tU from 19 countries.

• 1981 Michael Meacher

Michael Meacher, the former environment minister of the UK 1997-2003, and UK Member of Parliament, reports that peak uranium happened in 1981. He also predicts a major shortage of uranium sooner than 2013 accompanied with hoarding and its value pushed up to the levels of precious metals.^[94]

• 1991 European Nuclear Society

The European Nuclear Society maintains that "global uranium mining has decreased since 1991, but development in the individual countries varies considerably."^[95]

• 2009 Rohit Ogra and Edward Moore

Lehman Brothers Holdings analysts Rohit Ogra and Edward Moore predict uranium will hit a peak in 2009. However, they see it as a temporary peak because supplies of uranium won't exceed demand until 2012.^[96]

• 2034 van Leeuwen

Jan Willem Storm van Leeuwen, an independent analyst with Ceedata Consulting, contends that supplies of the high-grade uranium ore required to fuel nuclear power generation will, at current levels of consumption, last to about 2034.^[97] Afterwards, the cost of energy to extract the uranium will exceed the price the electric power provided.

• 2035 Energy Watch Group

The Energy Watch Group has calculated that, even with steep uranium prices, uranium production will have reached its peak by 2035 and that it will only be possible to satisfy the fuel demand of nuclear plants until then.^[98]

[edit] Optimistic predictions for peak uranium

All the following references claim that the supply is far more than demand. Therefore, they do not predict peak uranium.

• M. King Hubbert

In his 1956 landmark paper, M. King Hubbert wrote "There is promise, however, provided mankind can solve its international problems and not destroy itself with nuclear weapons, and provided world population (which is now expanding at such a rate as to double in less than a century) can somehow be brought under control, that we may at last have found an energy supply adequate for our needs for at least the next few centuries of the "foreseeable future.""^[5] Hubbert's study assumed that breeder reactors would replace light water reactors and that uranium would be bred into plutonium (and possibly thorium would be bred into uranium). He also assumed that economic means of reprocessing would be discovered. For political, economic and nuclear proliferation reasons, the plutonium economy never materialized. Without it, uranium is used up in a once-through process and will peak and run out much sooner.^[99] However, at present, it is generally found to be cheaper to mine new uranium out of the ground than to use reprocessed uranium, and therefore the use of reprocessed uranium is limited to only a few nations.

• OECD

AThe OECD estimates that with 2002 world nuclear electricity generating rates, with LWR, once-through fuel cycle, there are enough conventional resources to last 270 years. With breeders, this is extended to 8,500 years.^[100]

If one is willing to pay $300/KgU uranium, there is a vast quantity available in the ocean.^[101]

• Kenneth S. Deffeyes^[clarify]

Deffeyes estimates that if one can accept ore one tenth as rich then the supply of available uranium increased 300 times.^[102][103] Deffeyes' 1980 article addresses the log-normal distribution of Uranium and does not address issues like EROEI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested), or peak uranium.

• Huber and Mills

Huber and Mills believe the energy supply is infinite and the problem is merely how we go about extracting the energy.^[104] Huber and Mills do not provide an estimate when uranium demand will exceed the supply.

• Bernard Cohen

In 1983, physicist Bernard Cohen proposed that uranium is effectively inexhaustible, and could therefore be considered a renewable source of energy.^[4] He claims that fast breeder reactors, fueled by naturally-replenished uranium extracted from seawater, could supply energy at least as long as the sun's expected remaining lifespan of five billion years.^[4] - whilst uranium is a finite resource mineral resource within the earth, the hydrogen in the sun is finite too - thus, if the resource of nuclear fuel can last over such time scales, as Cohen contents, then nuclear energy is every bit as sustainable as solar power or any other source of energy, in terms of sustainability over the finite realistic time scale of life surviving on this planet.

We thus conclude that all the world’s energy requirements for the remaining 5×10⁹ yr of existence of life on Earth could be provided by breeder reactors without the cost of electricity rising by as much as 1% due to fuel costs. This is consistent with the definition of a “renewable” energy source in the sense in which that term is generally used.

His paper assumes extraction of uranium from seawater at the rate of 16,000 tonnes per year of uranium and that the cost of electricity will rise no more than 1% due to fuel costs.^[4] The current demand for uranium is already near 70,000 tonnes per year. Cohen's paper does not give a date when demand of uranium exceeds the supply of uranium. However, since he calculates using breeder technology uranium would be used at least 60 times more efficiently than today.

[edit] Possible effects and consequences of Peak uranium

As peak uranium happens, uranium shifts from a buyer's market to a seller's market. Prices increase in this market environment. Some economists predict that higher uranium prices will spur demand of substitutes for uranium - other energy sources that can be used to produce electricity such as renewable energy such as wind, solar power, geothermal, hydro/microhydro, biofuels, biomass and fossil fuel sources, such as coal, oil or gas. However, this substitution can only be temporary, as coal, oil and natural gas are finite resources as well.

[edit] Uranium price

The uranium spot price has ramped up from a low in Jan 2001 at $6.40 came to a peak in June 2007 at $135 per pound of U₃O₈. The uranium prices have dropped since.^[105] Currently (April 2008) the uranium spot is in the mid $60 range.^[106]

In 2007, shrinking weapons stockpiles, a large mine closure and new demand due to more reactors coming online was driving uranium prices upwards. Miners and Utilities are bitterly divided on uranium prices.^[107]

As prices go up, production responds from existing mines, and production from newer, harder to develop or lower quality uranium ores begins. Currently, much of the new production is coming from Kazakhstan. Production expansion is expected in Canada and in the United States. However, the number of projects waiting in the wings to be brought online now are far less than there were in the 1970's. There have been some encouraging signs that production from existing or planned mines is responding or will respond to higher prices. The supply of uranium has recently become very inelastic. As the demand increases, the prices respond dramatically.^[108] However, after peak uranium, the rate at which uranium is produced is decreasing. Prices are likely to soar.

[edit] Number of Contracts

Unlike other metals such as gold, silver, copper or nickel, uranium is not widely traded on an organized commodity exchange such as the London Metal Exchange. It is traded on the NYMEX but on very low volume. ^[109] Instead, it is traded in most cases through contracts negotiated directly between a buyer and a seller.^[110] The structure of uranium supply contracts varies widely. The prices are either fixed or base on referenced to economic indices such as GDP, inflation or currency exchange. Contracts traditionally are based on the uranium spot price and rules by which the price can escalate. Delivery quantities, schedules, and prices vary from contract to contract and often from delivery to delivery within the term of a contract.

Since the number of companies mining uranium is small, the number of available contracts is also small. Supplies are running short due to flooding of two of the world's largest mines and a dwindling amount of uranium salvaged from nuclear warheads being removed from service.^[111] While demand for the metal has been steady for years, the price of uranium is expected to surge as a host of new nuclear plants come online.

[edit] Hedge Funds

Several hedge funds are investing in processed uranium, helping drive up the price. There are at least four hedge funds, including two publicly traded firms -- Uranium Participation Corp. [ticker: U.TO] and Nufcor Uranium Ltd. [ticker: NUURF.PK] -- actively purchasing uranium.^[112]

[edit] Mining

For uranium exploration companies that constantly have to drum up new exploration funds, a rising uranium price entices institutions and investors to bet on their next project.^[107]

Mining companies are returning to abandoned uranium mines with new promises of hundreds of jobs and millions in royalties. Some locals want them back. Others say the risk is too great. They'll try to stop those companies "until there's a cure for cancer."^[113]

Uranium occurs at concentrations of 50 to 200 parts per million in phosphate-laden earth or phosphate rock. As uranium prices increase, there has been interest in some countries in extraction of uranium from phosphate rock, which is normally used as the basis of phosphate fertilizers.^[58]

[edit] Electric Utilities

Since many utilities have extensive stockpiles and can plan many months in advance, they take a wait-and-see approach on higher uranium costs. In the past year, this strategy has backfired due to the number of planned reactors or new reactors coming online.^[114] Those trying to find uranium in a rising cost climate are forced to face the reality of a seller’s market. Sellers remain reluctant to sell significant quantities. By waiting longer, sellers expect to get a higher price for the material they hold. Utilities on the other hand, are very eager to lock up long-term uranium contracts.^[107]

According to the NEA, the nature of nuclear generating costs allows for significant increases in the costs of uranium before the costs of generating electricity significantly increase. A 100% increase in uranium costs would only result in a 5% increase in electric cost.^[40] This is because uranium has to be converted to gas, enriched, converted back to yellow cake and fabricated into fuel elements. The cost of the finished fuel assemblies are dominated by the processing costs, not the cost of the raw materials.^[115] Furthermore, the cost of electricity from a nuclear power plant is dominated by the high capital and operating costs, not the cost of the fuel. Nevertheless, any increase in the price of uranium is eventually passed on to the consumer either directly or through a fuel surcharge.

[edit] Substitutes

If nuclear power prices rise too quickly, or too high, power companies are likely to look for substitutes in non-renewable energy: Coal, oil, and gas:

• Gas consumption is relatively clean, but does produce more CO2 emissions.
• Oil consumption would adversely affect the air quality, increase oil imports and CO2 emissions.
• Coal consumption will result in decreased air quality, increase in water consumption near coal-fired plants and CO2 emissions.

Also renewable energy, such as hydro, bioenergy, solar themal electricity, geothermal, wind, tidal may also be considered as substitutes:

• Renewables can make a clean, safe substitute for electricity made the nuclear fission of uranium although some would argue that renewables cannot provide a sufficient baseload.^[116] However, there are reliable and refutable sources that say that the baseload argument is a myth.^{[117][118][119]}
• Some renewable electricity sources (e.g. hydro, bioenergy, solar thermal electricity and geothermal ) have identical variability to coal-fired power stations and so they are base-load. They can be integrated without any additional back-up, as can efficient energy use.
• Other renewable electricity sources have variability, but that variability can be reduced or eliminated with geographic location. For example while the wind might blow at one wind turbine, it might not at another one.

[edit] Historical understanding of world uranium supply limits

• 1789 - The German scientist Martin Heinrich Klaproth isolated uranium in a sample of pitchblende.
• 1896 - Antoine Henri Becquerel discovered that uranium underwent radioactive decay.
• 1939 - Otto Hahn and Fritz Strassmann discover nuclear fission.
• 1943 - Alvin M. Weinberg et al. were aware of the serious limitations on nuclear energy if only U-235 were used as a nuclear power plant fuel.^[120] They understood that breeding was required to usher in the age of nearly endless energy. Breeding turns fertile U-238 into fissionable Pu-239 (or fertile Th-232 into fissionable U-233).
• 1956 - M. King Hubbert declares world fissionable reserves adequate for at least the next few centuries assuming breeding and reprocessing will be developed into economical processes.^[5]
• 1975 - The US Department of the Interior, Geological Survey, distributed the press release "Known US Uranium Reserves Won't Meet Demand".^[120]

[edit] See also

Prediction Hubbert peak theory Backstop resources World energy resources and consumption Economics Low-carbon economy Technology Energy conservation Energy efficiency Energy development Electric vehicles Renewable energy commercialization Soft energy path Uranium mining

Others Energy security Limits to Growth Overpopulation Overconsumption Green Revolution Causes of hypothetical future disasters Non-nuclear future Energy Portal Sustainable development Portal

[edit] References

[edit] External references

[edit] Books

• Herring, J.: Uranium and thorium resource assessment, Encyclopedia of Energy, Boston University, Boston, USA, 2004, ISBN 0-12-176480-X.

[edit] Articles

• Deffeyes, Kenneth S., MacGregor, Ian D. "Uranium Distribution in Mined Deposits and in the Earth’s Crust" Final Report, GJBX—1(79), Dept of Geological and Geophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ.
• Deffeyes, K., MacGregor, I.: "World Uranium resources" Scientific American, Vol 242, No 1, January 1980, pp. 66-76.

[edit] External links

• George S. Tolley and Donald W. Jones (2004). The Economic Future of Nuclear Power (English). University of Chicago. Retrieved on 2008-05-09.

• The Future of Nuclear Energy (English). Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Retrieved on 2008-05-09.

• China Nuclear Ambitions Pose Uranium Supply Questions (English). University of Alberta (2007-04-19). Retrieved on 2008-05-09.

• Uranium Supply - Australia And Canada (English). Nuclear Electricity 7th edition, ch 8 ((2002)).

• Australia's Uranium and Nuclear Power Prospects - Briefing Paper 1 (English). UIC (2008-01).

• Megumi Yamanaka (2007-04-11). Japan seeks uranium supplies from Russia and Kazakhstan (English). International Herald Tribune.

• Supply of Uranium, UIC Nuclear Issues Briefing Paper # 75 (English). UIC (2007-03).

• Global Nuclear Expansion Based on Plentiful Uranium Supply (English). Environment News Service (2006-06-06).

• Analysis of Uranium Supply to 2050 (English). International Atomic Energy Association (2001).

• Gordon Edwards (1978). What is reprocessing? (English). Canadian Coalition for Nuclear Responsibility.

• Spurgeon M. Keeny, Jr.. Nuclear Reaction - Why do Americans fear Nuclear Power? (English). Public Broadcasting Service.