Kardashev scale

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Kardashev scale projections for human civilization ranging from years 1900 to 2030, based on data from the International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook
Kardashev scale projections for human civilization ranging from years 1900 to 2030, based on data from the International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook

The Kardashev scale is a general method of classifying how technologically advanced a civilization is. It was first proposed in 1964 by the Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev. The scale has three designated categories called Type I, II and III. These are based on the amount of usable energy a civilization has at its disposal, and the degree of space colonization. In general terms, a Type I civilization has achieved mastery of the resources of its home planet, Type II of its solar system, and Type III of its galaxy.[1]

Contents

[edit] Energy Use

Energy is a static quantity and is denoted in joules. Power is a measure of energy over time, and is denoted in watts (joules per second). The three levels of the Kardashev Scale can be quantified in units of power (watts) and plotted on an increasing logarithmic scale.

  • Type I — a civilization that is able to harness all of the power available on a single planet —has approximately 1016 or 1017 W available.[2] Earth specifically has an available power of 1.74 ×1017 W (174 petawatts, see Earth's energy budget). Kardashev's original definition was 4 ×1012 W — a "technological level close to the level presently attained on earth" (presently meaning 1964).[3]
  • Type II — a civilization that is able to harness all of the power available from a single star, approximately 4 ×1026 W. [2] Again, this figure is variable; the Sun outputs approximately 3.86 ×1026 W. Kardashev's original definition was also 4 ×1026 W[3].
  • Type III — a civilization that is able to harness all of the power available from a single galaxy, approximately 4 ×1037 W. [2] This figure is extremely variable, since galaxies vary widely in size; the stated figure is the approximate power output of the Milky Way. Kardashev's original definition was also 4 ×1037 W.[3].

Using our nuclear explosion tests as a perspective, Tsar Bomba, the largest nuclear weapon ever detonated, released an estimated 57 megaton yield; even a Type I civilization makes use of roughly 25 megatons of TNT equivalent a second. A Type II civilization consumes 4x109 times more energy (4 billion hydrogen bombs per second), and a type III 1011 times more yet.

Current human civilization has a Kardashev value of about 0.7. However, the Kardashev scale was not developed to model a specific civilization. It's primarily used by SETI researchers, science fiction authors, and futurists as a theoretical framework.

[edit] Current status of human civilization

Human civilization is currently somewhere below Type I, as it is able to harness only a portion of the energy that is available on Earth. The current state of human civilization has thus been named Type 0. Although intermediate values were not discussed in Kardashev's original proposal, Carl Sagan argued that they could easily be defined by interpolating and extrapolating the values given above. In 1973, he calculated humanity's civilization type to be 0.7, in relationship to Kardashev's model for Types 0 and I.[4]

Sagan used the formula:

K = \frac{\log_{10}{W}-6} {10}

Value K is a civilization's Kardashev rating and W is its power output in watts. Sagan used 10TW as value W, which was considerably higher than present data suggests.[5] Sagan's overestimation makes little difference in regards to human civilizations K rating, effecting only a difference of 1% in the value of K (See Table Below). International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook (2005)[5] and section 7 of Key World Energy Statistics[6] project values for planetary power production yielding these corresponding Kardashev scale estimates:

Year Energy production Fractional Kardashev
scale equivalent
exajoules/year terawatts Quads/year[7] mtoes/year[8]
1900 21 .67 20 500 0.58
1970 190 6.0 180 4500 0.67
1973 260 8.2 240 6200 0.69
1985 290 9.2 270 6900 0.69
1989 320 10 300 7600 0.70
1993 340 11 320 8100 0.70
1995 360 12 340 8700 0.70
2000 420 13 400 10000 0.71
2001 420 13 400 10000 0.71
2002 430 14 410 10400 0.71
2004 440 14 420 10600 0.71
2010 510 16 480 12100 0.72
2030 680 22 650 16300 0.73
Further information: World energy resources and consumption

[edit] Energy development

Methods by which a civilization could feasibly advance to Type I:

  • Large scale application of fusion power. Type I implies the generation of about 5kg of energy per second. This can be achieved by fusing about 1000 kg of hydrogen into helium each second, a rate of about 3 x 1010 kg/year. A cubic km of water contains about 1011 kg of hydrogen, and the Earth's oceans contain about 1.3 x 109 cubic km of water. So this rate of production can be sustained over geological time scales.
  • Anti-matter production is still beyond our civilization's ability to utilize as a power source,[9] but any civilization with the technological ability to produce or collect anti-matter[10] in large quantities cheaply, would have a mechanism to produce power on a scale several factors above our current level of technology. In antimatter-matter collisions, the entire rest mass of the particles is converted to kinetic energy. The energy per unit mass is about 10 orders of magnitude greater than chemical energy (compared to TNT), about 4 orders of magnitude greater than the energy that humans liberated today using nuclear fission, and about 2 orders of magnitude greater than the best possible from fusion.[11] The reaction of 1 kg of anti-matter with 1 kg of matter would produce 1.8×1017 J (180 petajoules) of energy (by the mass-energy equivalence formula E = mc²), or roughly the equivalent of 47 megatons of TNT. For energy comparisons see anti-matter as a fuel source
  • Solar energy - converting sunlight into electricity by either solar cells or indirectly through wind and hydroelectric power. Currently, there is no known way for human civilization to successfully utilize the equivalent of the Earth's total absorbed solar energy without completely coating the surface with man-made structures, which is presently not feasible. However, if a civilization constructed very large space-based power satellites, Type I power levels might be achievable.
Figure of a Dyson swarm surrounding a star
Figure of a Dyson swarm surrounding a star

Type II civilizations might employ:

Type III civilizations might use the same techniques employed by a Type II civilization, but applied to all of the stars of one or more galaxies individually.[15]

Dr. Michio Kaku has discussed a type IV civilization, which could harness "extragalactic" energy sources such as dark energy, in his book Parallel Worlds.[16]

[edit] Civilization implications

There are many historical examples of civilizations undergoing large-scale transitions, such as the Industrial Revolution. The transition between Kardashev scale levels could potentially represent similarly dramatic periods of social upheaval, since they entail surpassing the hard limits of the resources available in a civilization's existing territory. A common speculation[17] suggests that the transition from Type 0 to Type I might carry a strong risk of self-destruction since there would no longer be room for further expansion on the civilization's home planet, similar to a Malthusian catastrophe. Excessive use of energy without adequate disposal of heat, for example, could make the planet of a civilization approaching Type I unsuitable to the biology of the dominant life-forms and their food sources. If Earth is an example, then sea temperatures in excess of 35°C would menace marine life and make the cooling of mammals to temperatures suitable for their metabolism difficult if not impossible.

[edit] Extensions to the original scale

The sub-Type I state that human civilization currently occupies was not originally included in the Kardashev scale but is now referred to as "Type 0" or by its K value using Sagan's logarithmic formula (described above).

Zoltan Galantai has defined a further extrapolation of the scale, a Type IV level which controls the energy output of the visible universe; this is within a few orders of magnitude of 1045 W. Such a civilization approaches or surpasses the limits of speculation based on current scientific understanding, and may not be possible. Frank J. Tipler's Omega point would presumably occupy this level, as would the Biocosm hypothesis. Galantai has argued that such a civilization could not be detected, as its activities would be indistinguishable from the workings of nature (there being nothing to compare them to).[18]

However, Milan M. Ćirković has argued that "Type IV" should instead be used to refer to a civilization that has harnessed the power of its supercluster, or "the largest gravitationally bound structure it originated in".[19] For the Local Supercluster, this would be approximately 1042 W.

In contrast to simply increasing the maximum power level covered by the scale, Carl Sagan suggested adding another dimension: the information available to the civilization. He assigned the letter A to represent 106 unique bits of information (less than any recorded human culture) and each successive letter to represent an order of magnitude increase, so that a level Z civilization would have 1031 bits. In this classification, 1973 Earth is a 0.7H civilization, with access to 1013 bits of information. Sagan believed that no civilization has yet reached level Z, conjecturing that so much unique information would exceed that of all the intelligent species in a galactic supercluster and observing that the universe is not old enough to effectively exchange information over larger distances. The information and energy axes are independent, so that even a level Z civilization would not need to be Kardeshev Type III. [20]

[edit] Classifying fictional civilizations

These categorizations are not firm, and are neither complete nor absolute. Most science fiction space opera writers do not specifically write their works with Kardashev classification in mind. Isaac Asimov's short story The Last Question covers many of the same themes as Kardashev's papers, in its descriptions of the future use of energy and entropy by human civilization; however it does not mention the scale, as it was written in 1956.

  • Type I
    • The Pierson's Puppeteers from Larry Niven's Known Space books. Their society consumes so much power from Total conversion that surface temperatures are maintained, by waste heat, even after the planet is moved 1/10th of a light year away from its star. Power production must therefore be equivalent to the previous insolation. See Fleet of Worlds.
    • The Krell, the (extinct) inhabitants of Forbidden Planet. They left behind a facility of enormous power (described as 9600 thermonuclear generators occupying 33000 cubic kilometers), though the purpose was initially unknown. However, a monster created by Dr. Morbius's id was able to tap into this power. According to the power meters shown in the generating plant during the attack, energy use was about 1015 times that used by Dr. Morbius and his daughter under normal conditions. Assuming normal use would be 1-10 KW, this puts them at Type I or slightly above.
  • Type III
    • The Asgard from the Sci-Fi series Stargate. Thor's race employs technology allowing them to cause time dialation. Their ships are capable of crossing the voids between galaxies in mere days to weeks.
    • The Galactic Republic of Star Wars by George Lucas is a galaxy-spanning society. It has constructed planet-destroying space platforms which expend energy consistent with a Type III civilization, albeit not continuously. [23]
    • Dr. Michio Kaku has argued the Borg Collective of Star Trek represent a Type III civilization.[21]
    • The Star Maker by Olaf Stapledon. The stellar energy output of the whole galaxy is utilized by the Galactic Community of Worlds. [24]
    • Manifold: Time, by Stephen Baxter - in the distant future, descendants of humanity maintain vast Dyson nets around the supermassive black hole remnants of galaxies until they evaporate via Hawking radiation, accessing the energy equivalent of multiple galaxies.
    • The Forerunners, of the Halo (series) and its universe, had the power to wipe out life on a galactic scale and had done so before to eradicate the parasitic species known as the Flood, wiping themselves out in the process. They also were able to create such megastructures as the dyson sphere and 'shunt' them into slipspace.
    • The Therians from AT-43, a science fiction themed strategy game by Rackham. The Therians have constructed dyson shells around a very large number of stars including every star in the Milky Way galaxy and an unknown number of stars from nearby galaxies.
  • Type IV and above
    • The Q Continuum and its individual members in the Star Trek mythos
    • The Time Lords of Doctor Who - in the story The Gallifrey Chronicles the Time Lord Marnal claims "The Time Lords were the Type 4 civilization. We had no equals. We controlled the fundamental forces of the entire universe. Nothing could communicate with us on our level. Most races pray to lesser beings than the Time Lords"[25]
    • The Dancers at the End of Time by Michael Moorcock - a past civilization is described which consumed all the energy in all the stars in the universe (saving Earth's own sun) in order to fuel an existence where the inheritors of the Earth lived as nigh-omnipotent gods.
    • The Ancients from the Stargate mythos invented a machine to harness all the power of this universe and other universes, by using Zero-point energy. Unfortunately it never worked properly, creating a large amount of uncontrollable exotic particles. The Ancients did finally achieve powers over the universe by Ascending to another plane of existence. This is an example of Transhumanism in fiction.
    • In Isaac Asimov's science fiction novel "The Last Question", humanity is able to harness the power of the entire Universe
    • In Stephen Baxter's Xeelee Sequence, the Photino Birds harness the power of all of stars in the universe and the Xeelee, another universe spanning civilization, flee to other universes.
    • In the video game series Half-Life, the Combine is an alien empire that spans an undefined number of parallel universes, due to the unique ability to control inter-dimensional travel (by means of Dark Fusion reactor). The Combine expands its empire by invading worlds and enslaving the dominant species to be exploited as it sees fit.

[edit] Criticism

It has been argued that, because we cannot understand advanced civilizations, we cannot predict their behavior; thus, Kardashev's visualization may not reflect what will actually occur for an advanced civilization. This central argument is found within the book Evolving the Alien: The Science of Extraterrestrial Life. [26]

[edit] References

  1. ^ Zubrin, Robert, 1999, Entering Space - Creating a Spacefaring Civilization
  2. ^ a b c Detectability of Extraterrestrial Technological Activities by Guillermo A. Lemarchand
  3. ^ a b c Kardashev, Nikolai (1964). "Transmission of Information by Extraterrestrial Civilizations". Soviet Astronomy 8. 
  4. ^ Sagan, Carl [1973] (October 2000). in Jerome Agel: Cosmic Connection: An Extraterrestrial Perspective, Freeman J. Dyson, David Morrison, Cambridge Press. ISBN 05-21-7830-38. Retrieved on 2008-01-01. 
  5. ^ a b [ (2005) "8", World Energy Outlook (PDF), Paris, France: International Energy Agency, 82. ISBN 92-64-1094-98. Retrieved on 2008-01-01. ]
  6. ^ Key World Energy Statistics (PDF). International Energy Agency (2004). Retrieved on 2006-08-10.
  7. ^ Quads: 1 quadrillion BTU
  8. ^ mtoes: million tonnes (metric tons) of oil equivalents
  9. ^ Landua, Rolf, [[Newton Magazine]] & CERN. Interview. Anti-matter is the ultimate energy source.... Is this true?. Italy. 2005-09-01. Retrieved on 2008-01-29.
  10. ^ Weidenspointner, Georg (2008-01-08). An asymmetric distribution of positrons in the Galactic disk revealed by big gamma-rays (Journal). Nature. DOI:10.1038/nature06490. Retrieved on 2008-02-19.
  11. ^ Borowski, Steve K. (1987-07-29). "Comparison of Fusion/Anti-matter Propulsion Systems for Interplanetary Travel". Technical Memorandum 107030: p. 1-3, San Diego, California, USA: National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Retrieved on 2008-01-28. 
  12. ^ Dyson, Freeman J. (1966), Marshak, R. E., ed., “The Search for Extraterrestrial Technology”, Perspectives in Modern Physics (New York: John Wiley & Sons) 
  13. ^ Newman, Phil (2001-10-22). New Energy Source "Wrings" Power from Black Hole Spin (web). NASA. Retrieved on 2008-02-19.
  14. ^ Schutz, Bernard F. (1985). A First Course in General Relativity. New York: Cambridge University Press, p.304, 305. ISBN 0521277035. 
  15. ^ Kardashev, Nikolai. "On the Inevitability and the Possible Structures of Supercivilizations", The search for extraterrestrial life: Recent developments; Proceedings of the Symposium, Boston, MA, June 18-21, 1984 (A86-38126 17-88). Dordrecht, D. Reidel Publishing Co., 1985, p. 497-504.
  16. ^ Kaku, Michio (2005). Parallel Worlds: The Science of Alternative Universes and Our Future in the Cosmos. New York: Doubleday, p.317. ISBN 0713997281. 
  17. ^ Dyson, Freeman (1960-06-03). "Artificial Stellar Sources of Infrared Radiation". Science 131 (3414): p.1667-1668. New York: W. A. Benjamin, Inc. doi:10.1126/science. 131.3414.1667. 
  18. ^ Galantai, Zoltan (September 7, 2003). Long Futures and Type IV Civilizations (PDF). Retrieved on 2006-05-26.
  19. ^ Milan M. Ćirković (February 2004). "Forecast for the Next Eon : Applied Cosmology and the Long-Term Fate of Intelligent Beings". Foundations of Physics 34. Springer Netherlands. 
  20. ^ Sagan, Carl [1973] (October 2000). in Jerome Agel: Cosmic Connection: An Extraterrestrial Perspective, Freeman J. Dyson, David Morrison, Cambridge Press. ISBN 05-21-7830-38. Retrieved on 2008-01-01. 
  21. ^ a b YouTube - Michio Kaku On Civilizations Types I,II & III
  22. ^ Eelong - Hallawiki
  23. ^ STAR WARS: Death Stars
  24. ^ Stapledon, Olaf Last and First Men [ 1931 ] and Star Maker [ 1937 ] New York:1968—Dover Chapters IX through XI Pages 346 to 396
  25. ^ Parkin, Lance (2005). The Gallifrey Chronicles. BBC Books, 56. ISBN 0-563-48624-4. 
  26. ^ Jack Cohen and Ian Stewart: Evolving the Alien: The Science of Extraterrestrial Life, Ebury Press, 2002, ISBN 0-09-187927-2

[edit] Further reading

  • Kardashev, Nikolai (March 1997). "Cosmology and Civilizations". Astrophysics and Space Science 252. 
  • Supercivilizations as Possible Products of the Progressive Evolution of Matter: also by Kardashev
  • Search for Artificial Stellar Sources of Infrared Radiation, by Freeman J. Dyson
  • The Radio Search For Intelligent Extraterrestral Life, by Frank Drake
  • Freitas Jr., Robert A.. Energy and Culture (chapter 15). 

[edit] See also

Sustainable development Portal

[edit] External links