User talk:Jl3307
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[edit] Welcome!
Hello, Jl3307, and welcome to Wikipedia! Thank you for your contributions. I hope you like the place and decide to stay. Here are some pages that you might find helpful:
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I hope you enjoy editing here and being a Wikipedian! Please sign your name on talk pages using four tildes (~~~~); this will automatically produce your name and the date. If you need help, check out Wikipedia:Questions, ask me on my talk page, or place {{helpme}} on your talk page and someone will show up shortly to answer your questions. Again, welcome! Leebo T/C 20:52, 1 February 2008 (UTC)
[edit] Original research
Hi, I realize you are new to Wikipedia. You may want to read Wikipedia's policy stating No original research. As it relates to polling estimates, you are doing research on the published material to come up with new, unpublished numbers. This is disallowed by Wikipedia policy. Leebo T/C 20:52, 1 February 2008 (UTC)
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- Since apparently no one could wrap their mind around the fact that everything I posted (Incuding current superdelegate totals) was sourced, I will just put this stuff here for my own reference. Anyone is welcome to browse my estimates here.Jl3307 (talk) 17:04, 3 February 2008 (UTC)
[edit] Democratic Delegate Estimates
The following table shows the estimated votes of the delegates for the 2008 Democratic National Convention. The estimate is based on the most recent Opinion polling for the Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2008 after applying the DNC's 15% threshold rule as well as completed primary and caucus results. Please refer to [1] for superdelegate numbers.
| Date | State | Delegates | Superdelegates | Hillary Clinton | Barack Obama | Undecided/Other | Hillary Clinton | Barack Obama | Undecided/Other |
| 01/03/08 | Iowa | 45 | 12 | 29% | 38% | 33% | 18 | 18 | 21 |
| 01/08/08 | New Hampshire | 22 | 5 | 39% | 37% | 22% | 11 | 12 | 4 |
| 01/15/08 | Michigan | 0 (128) | 0 (29) | 55% | - | 45% | - | - | 0 (157) |
| 01/19/08 | Nevada | 25 | 8 | 51% | 45% | 4% | 14 | 14 | 5 |
| 01/26/08 | South Carolina | 45 | 9 | 27% | 55% | 18% | 14 | 26 | 14 |
| 01/29/08 | Florida | 0 (185) | 0 (25) | 50% | 33% | 17% | - | - | 0 (210) |
| 02/05/08 | Alabama | 52 | 8 | 42% | 56% | 2% | 23 | 21 | 16 |
| 02/05/08 | Alaska | 13 | 5 | 25% | 74% | 1% | 5 | 10 | 3 |
| 02/05/08 | American Somoa | 3 | 6 | 57% | 43% | 0% | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 02/05/08 | Arizona | 56 | 11 | 51% | 42% | 7% | 33 | 27 | 7 |
| 02/05/08 | Arkansas | 35 | 12 | 70% | 27% | 3% | 35 | 8 | 4 |
| 02/05/08 | California | 370 | 71 | 52% | 42% | 6% | 217 | 164 | 60 |
| 02/05/08 | Colorado | 55 | 16 | 32% | 67% | 1% | 10 | 15 | 46 |
| 02/05/08 | Connecticut | 48 | 12 | 47% | 51% | 2% | 23 | 29 | 8 |
| 02/05/08 | Delaware | 15 | 8 | 42% | 53% | 5% | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| 02/05/08 | Georgia | 87 | 16 | 31% | 66% | 3% | 23 | 42 | 38 |
| 02/05/08 | Idaho | 18 | 5 | 17% | 80% | 3% | 3 | 17 | 3 |
| 02/05/08 | Illinois | 153 | 32 | 33% | 65% | 2% | 45 | 111 | 29 |
| 02/05/08 | Kansas | 32 | 9 | 26% | 74% | 100% | 10 | 24 | 7 |
| 02/05/08 | Massachusetts | 93 | 28 | 56% | 41% | 3% | 61 | 44 | 16 |
| 02/05/08 | Minnesota | 72 | 16 | 32% | 67% | 1% | 27 | 51 | 10 |
| 02/05/08 | Missouri | 72 | 16 | 48% | 49% | 3% | 38 | 40 | 10 |
| 02/05/08 | New Jersey | 107 | 20 | 54% | 44% | 2% | 69 | 49 | 9 |
| 02/05/08 | New Mexico | 26 | 12 | 49% | 48% | 3% | 17 | 13 | 8 |
| 02/05/08 | New York | 232 | 49 | 57% | 40% | 3% | 177 | 94 | 10 |
| 02/05/08 | North Dakota | 13 | 8 | 37% | 61% | 2% | 5 | 12 | 4 |
| 02/05/08 | Oklahoma | 38 | 9 | 55% | 31% | 14% | 24 | 14 | 9 |
| 02/05/08 | Tennessee | 68 | 17 | 54% | 41% | 5% | 39 | 27 | 19 |
| 02/05/08 | Utah | 23 | 6 | 39% | 57% | 4% | 11 | 14 | 4 |
| Through Super Tuesday | 1818 | 426 | 752 | 710 | 782 | ||||
| Percentage | 81% | 19% | 34% | 32% | 34% | ||||
| 02/09/08 | Louisiana | 56 | 12 | - | - | 100% | 68 | ||
| 02/09/08 | Nebraska | 24 | 7 | - | - | 100% | - | - | 31 |
| 02/09/08 | Washington | 78 | 19 | 40% | 53% | 7% | 38 | 46 | 13 |
| 02/10/08 | Maine | 24 | 10 | - | - | 100% | - | - | 34 |
| 02/05/08-02/12/08 | Democrats Abroad* | 7 | 6 | 100% | - | - | 13 | ||
| 02/12/08 | District of Columbia | 15 | 22 | - | - | 100% | - | - | 37 |
| 02/12/08 | Maryland | 70 | 29 | - | - | 100% | - | - | 99 |
| 02/12/08 | Virginia | 83 | 20 | 50% | 25% | 25% | 61 | 31 | 11 |
| 02/19/08 | Wisconsin | 74 | 18 | 36% | 29% | 35% | 42 | 35 | 15 |
| 02/26/08 | Hawaii* | 20 | 9 | 100% | - | - | 29 | ||
| 03/01/08 | Guam* | 3 | 5 | 100% | - | - | 8 | ||
| 03/01/08 | U.S. Virgin Islands* | 3 | 6 | 100% | - | - | 9 | ||
| 03/01/08 | Wyoming* | 12 | 6 | 100% | - | - | 18 | ||
| 03/04/08 | Ohio | 141 | 20 | 44% | 28% | 28% | 86 | 55 | 20 |
| 03/04/08 | Rhode Island | 21 | 11 | 33% | 15% | 52% | 14 | 7 | 11 |
| 03/04/08 | Texas | 193 | 35 | 51% | 17% | 32% | 145 | 48 | 35 |
| 03/04/08 | Vermont | 15 | 8 | 37% | 19% | 44% | 10 | 5 | 8 |
| 03/11/08 | Mississippi* | 33 | 7 | 100% | - | - | 40 | ||
| 04/01/08 | Pennsylvania | 151 | 30 | 43% | 15% | 42% | 112 | 39 | 30 |
| 05/06/08 | Indiana* | 66 | 13 | 100% | - | - | 79 | ||
| 05/06/08 | North Carolina | 91 | 19 | 31% | 24% | 45% | 51 | 40 | 19 |
| 05/13/08 | West Virginia | 26 | 11 | 37% | 22% | 41% | 16 | 10 | 11 |
| 05/20/08 | Kentucky* | 47 | 8 | 100% | - | - | 55 | ||
| 05/20/08 | Oregon | 48 | 14 | 36% | 28% | 36% | 27 | 21 | 14 |
| 06/01/08 | Puerto Rico* | 51 | 7 | 100% | - | - | 58 | ||
| 06/03/08 | Montana* | 16 | 8 | 29% | 17% | 54% | 10 | 6 | 8 |
| 06/03/08 | South Dakota* | 14 | 8 | 100% | - | - | 22 | ||
| Total | 3,200 | 794 | 1,364 | 1,053 | 1,577 | ||||
| Percentage | 80% | 20% | 33% | 25% | 42% |
"*" indicates that no polling data exists for the state, so the delegates have been assigned to "Undecided."
"!" In moving their primaries before February 5, 2008, Florida and Michigan have violated Democratic Party rules and their delegates may not be seated at the nominating convention.[1][2]
