Talk:James Wesley Rawles

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[edit] Cafepress ref

When I tried to submit a boring syntax change, I got hit with a blacklist notice for a reference to cafepress.com. I've never seen one of these notices before. To resolve the issue, I just threw the link inside an HTML comment. If the reference truely is spam, or someone knows a more appropriate resolution to this, feel free to take action...This is outside the fact that it may be a primary reference, meaning it may be appropriate to remove entirely. -Verdatum (talk) 15:27, 2 May 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Sources

Find sources: James Wesley Rawles — news, books, scholar

[edit] Economic views

I'm deleting this section for the following reasons In a Usenet post in February of 2001,...

Usenet is not an authenticated medium, no way to prove that he was the actual poster. Even if he was, the signifigance of this fact is not explained and thus does not improve the article. even if it was, this is a primary source, which should generally be avoided as a source of content.

As of January, 2008, Rawles stills sees silver and gold in "primary bull markets."

at the very least, this needs a rewrite. It is not worded in a manner that can be easily understood, and even if it were, it just comes off as investment advice, it does nothing to represent his fundemental economic philosophies. Even if it did, such philosophies should really only be discussed via independant secondary sources.

Rawles put his mail-order business on hiatus in the last months of 1999 to prepare for the Y2K problem and its possible socioeconomic consequences.

His mail-order business was not previously mentioned in this article, so it makes no sense to explain it's hiatus. Further, his Y2K views are discussed in a separate section. Further, this fact is unsourced.

Rawles predicts a deep recession or possibly a depression in the near future...

At the very least, this claim needs to be rewritten to be chronologically neutral. Just be cause he blogged an opinion does not mean he maintains it. This sort of thing is discussed in Wikipedia:Biographies of Living Persons.

I hope anyone who disagrees with these arguments will take the time to respond here, and not just revert the edit. -Verdatum (talk) 18:02, 2 May 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Marjor article changes

Ok. I'm doing my best to remove self-published, blog, forum and otherwise unreliable source material from this article. Consequently, plenty of statements that were sourced only from those kinds of references have been deleted or tagged. I'm going to keep an eye on this article, so if you want to replace something I've removed, go right ahead (it is a free country), but I might challenge it. Please don't add stuff written by rawles or stuff written on personal websites. Thanks. Protonk (talk) 18:00, 3 May 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Vanity Press

Also, Huntington House Publishers appears to be a vanity press. Reports of that over the web. No web address (gliath listing, listing on christian publishing list). Mentioned on a watchdog blog (here, scroll down). Even this guy basically describes the MO of a vanity press but exonerates them because he is pushing the same nonsense (here warning: KEEERAZY ads). Protonk (talk) 18:28, 3 May 2008 (UTC)

I believe there's no web address because they went bankrupt, which is why he now has the book self-published--you'll almost never get a book moved from one publisher to another. I will check with verifiable sources as to the nature of their operation then--vanity or otherwise.Mzmadmike (talk) 06:01, 5 May 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Section from "published books"

~~==Published works==~~

His first book, Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse, a novel, was first released in 1998. It was first released as Internet shareware in the early 1990s, and later published in interim form as TEOTWAWKI: The End of The World as We Know It, in the late 1990s^{[citation needed]}. The story is set in the near future and describes a period of hyperinflation and a socio-economic collapse. While it is a fictional story, it is essentially a method to teach survival techniques in an interesting manner.^[1] It was re-released in December, 2006 in expanded form. The novel reflects a conservative interpretation of Christianity combined with a stereotypical approach to "the Good" and "the Bad" (Good Christians versus Biker-looter gangs). The publisher's synopsis describes the novel as "distinctly pro-Christian, pro-preparedness, pro-gun ownership, and anti-racist." ^[2]

`[edit] Books`

~~Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse from Huntington House Publishers, ISBN 978-1563841552 (November 1998)~~

There it is. When I get more time I'll rework this bit. It obviously needs to be in there somewhere, because the WND is an independent, non-trivial mention (probably the only one in the article), but not in its current form. Protonk (talk) 18:33, 3 May 2008 (UTC)

Reworked and re-entered, see below for details and new section. Protonk (talk) 20:48, 5 May 2008 (UTC)

[edit] South China Morning Post

Their Archive has no record of the article mentioned in the text (at least that I can find. Maybe the title is wrong or maybe I typed it in wrong. Feel free to take a crack at it. For now, I'm marking it as a dead ref. Protonk (talk) 20:34, 3 May 2008 (UTC)

According to Declan McCullagh's web page, this was a newspaper article based directly n his web article "The Official Vehicle of Y2K." See: http://www.mccullagh.org/y2kculture/about/press.html And here is his original article on Y2KCulture: http://www.mccullagh.org/y2kculture/arts/19990324.ferret.html The South China Morning Post article was included as a reference, because it ran in a HARD COPY newspaper, which, in the convoluted logic of wikipedia, is a more "reliable" reference than Internet articles, in descriptions of Internet phenomena. -- Trasel (talk) 15:03, 5 May 2008 (UTC)

Three things, if it ran in the south china morning post, where is it in their archives? Second, it really is a trivial mention, related to the purchase of the vehicle, most of the press coverage seems to be poking fun at him. third, please don't spend your time belittling the guidance over references. I'm sorry it is slanted toward "established" coverage but it doesn't help to attack the process. Protonk (talk) 17:14, 5 May 2008 (UTC)

You ask: "...if it ran in the south china morning post, where is it in their archives? Not all newspapers and magazines kept electronic archives of all of their articles before the turn of the century. (The 21st, that is.) Even today, electronic layout is not universal. You insist on Hard Copy references. Then they are provided. Then you complain that they aren't available online. This is more than a little ironic. You also mention: "Second, it really is a trivial mention, related to the purchase of the vehicle, most of the press coverage seems to be poking fun at him." That sort of objectivity is expected in a wiki biography. The articles are supposed to be well-balanced. If I had wanted to idolize Rawles then I would not have included references that are critical of him.

On another note: I am waiting to see if there is any response to my query to WP:WRE. If not, I can e-mail Rawles and ask him if he has copies of the magazines that I referenced. If so, perhaps he'd be willing photocopy or scan the magazine and handbook masthead pages. If he does so, is there a sandbox page where these scans can be posted, for editorial review? Trasel (talk) 17:47, 5 May 2008 (UTC)

I don't know. they can go to wikisource if the original is truly gone. But I mean, maybe I'm doing it wrong. See if you can get any hits from the SCMP archive. I might have not searched it properly or thoroughly. If we can't find the original but we are sure it existed, then we can cite is as the newspaper article "quoted in" the website you showed me. Like I said before, ust because the SCMP doesn't keep a record of it doesn't mean it doesn't exist, and all I did was mark the link broken.

One more thing to consider is that those references (the mention in wired, SCMP, Long Beach Press telegram, etc) all appear to be off a similar wire service report. In other words, it is unlikely that SCMP and the other papers searched Rawles out and all got the same story. It appears more likely that they plucked it from the wire report and put it into stories about Y2K. The mentions are, also bordering on trivial. that may be something else to keep in mind. Protonk (talk) 17:54, 5 May 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Long Beach Press-telegram

I am suspicious of this reference, too. I can't get to it (seems to only be available from their proprietary database, can't get to it from Proquest or Lexis) and the first few lines make it seem like the article is about Y2K in general and not Rawles's specific warning. But, since I can't GET to it, I'm going to WP:AGF and not mess w/ the cite. Protonk (talk) 22:24, 3 May 2008 (UTC)

[edit] new book section

Rawles released his first book in 1998, a work of speculative fiction set in a near future period of hyperinflation and socio-economic collapse entitled Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse. The book was originally released as shareware but was later printed by the Christian^[3], partner publisher^[4] Huntington House. The book was re-released by Xlibris, a self-publishing firm^[5], in 2006. World Net Daily reviewed the first printing and found the non-fiction information provided about survivalist techniques fascinating but the fiction elements "[not] exactly subtle".^[6] The publisher's synopsis describes the novel as "distinctly pro-Christian, pro-preparedness, pro-gun ownership, and anti-racist." ^[7]

There. Much less spammy. Protonk (talk) 17:18, 4 May 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Discussion of Referencing Methodology

Wiki editor Protonk deleted a direct (original) reference to a quote about Rawles. This was a direct quote, from a letter written by a reader of his blog. Protonk commented on his edit: "(No. Rawles' blog can't be used as a source for that quote. that is a contentious claim of opinion that needs to be attributed to a third party source or removed.)" I'm stumped here. Are you saying that a direct quote about blogger is not a valid quote unless it is re-printed in a third party hard copy publication? By that train of logic, it would be virtually impossible to create a wiki article that mentions any blog or similar web site. (When teh subject matter is something online, then it is only logical to quote an online source. I'm stumped here. What should I do, write to the original author of the letter, and ask him to have it printed by the New York Times? You seem to be asking the editors of this wiki bio to jump through flaming hoops. I'm just trying my best to add references, just as I promised. Trasel (talk) 15:36, 5 May 2008 (UTC)

It is indeed a difficult issue. The key bit of guideline here is WP:PSTS. When you use primary sources, you are synthesizing their signifigance and providing interpretation of the source by nature of including it. When using a secondary source, you are relying on the secondary source's interpretation of the data. Relying on secondary sources is also an excellent method of preventing undue weight. If no one is writing about the person, they should have either no article, or a very short article. The gray area, and the place that you should be arguing is that sometimes primary sources are appropriate. However, working against you is WP:BLP which is a strict policy about the things that can and cannot be said about living people. in many cases, BLP does indeed ask you to jump through flaming hoops. This is why it's often difficult to write articles about people who's primary claim to notability is their blogging, and part of why this article is currently up for AFD. -Verdatum (talk) 16:31, 5 May 2008 (UTC)

I'm sorry. I understand the frustration here, believe me. I'm currently attempting to bring Los Angeles class submarine up to GA class but so much of the information is basically private, tribal knowledge of submariners or classified. There are secondary sources, but the good ones are few and far between. I'm left with the option of WP:SYN from my own memories or leaving information out that isn't really classified and would be useful. Granted, that article has fewer restrictions on it than ones that are covered by WP:BLP. But despite the fact that I empathize, the rules are there for a reason. there are two sources of guidance for these situtations (really one). First is WP:SELFPUB:

Self-published and questionable sources may be used as sources in articles about themselves, so long as:

the material used is relevant to their notability;

it is not contentious;

it is not unduly self-serving;

it does not involve claims about third parties;

it does not involve claims about events not directly related to the subject;

there is no reasonable doubt as to who authored it;

the article is not based primarily on such sources. (emphasis mine)

The second (right above it, really), is this, FN:5 in WP:V

5. "Blogs" in this context refers to personal and group blogs. Some newspapers host interactive columns that they call blogs, and these may be acceptable as sources so long as the writers are professionals and the blog is subject to the newspaper's full editorial control. Where a news organization publishes the opinions of a professional but claims no responsibility for the opinions, the writer of the cited piece should be attributed (e.g., "Jane Smith has suggested ..."). Posts left by readers may never be used as sources. (Epmphasis mine)

To me, that is clear as day. A reader leaves Rawles a comment on his blog. It can't be used as a source where the purpose of the source is an appeal to authority on a contentious claim. I understand the problem. I understand that this guy is underground, but has a web following. I understand that you feel he is important to the survivalist movement. I'm not a survivalist, so I can't speak from any personal experience. But I think (and this is important in the AfD debate, too) what should be clear is that the WP:N and WP:BLP guidelines are pretty clear and pretty strict with regard to cases like this. If he is notable and if we are to adhere to the guidelines in WP:BLP, then we have to use sources that are independent of the subject and otherwise reliable. We have to be sure that the source material verifies the citation. Sometimes this will be impossible. It doesn't mean that you lied or that Rawles didn't do it, it just means we can't include it. It wouldn't be fair to the wiki and it wouldn't be fair to Rawles. The question of whether or not online sources should be sufficient isn't an easy one. We aren't going to answer it here. Part of the flaw of wikipedia is that as much as it is the embodiment of web 2.0, it is still tethered to the pre-internet age in terms of sources. This is a good and a bad thing. It allows wikipedia to maintain considerable authority, but it needlessly excludes what would otherwise be accurate and helpful information. It is a compromise, and e seem to be on opposite sides of its impacts. I hope this helps to explain my thoughts. Protonk (talk) 17:05, 5 May 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Notability

I don't want to pretend like I know more about these guidelines than anyone else here, but I think that I should be frank about my feelings on this article. I don't think that Rawles meets the criteria of WP:N or WP:BIO. This probably biases me on the subject. I also feel that the article, in its original form, had the appearance of notability, in that it referenced lots of sources and even noted that the subject was mentioned in various news reports. However, most of those sources either didn't verify the text or were trivial mentions. I know the trivial part is up for debate and I can't claim a monopoly on the truth here. But in some sense they really are. None of newspaper articles are about Rawles, per se. They are either about the military vehicle he bought in preparation for Y2K or about the survivalist movement in general, where he is quoted as a source. Here are the criteria for a notable biography:

A person is presumed to be notable if he or she has been the subject of published^[8] secondary source material which is reliable, intellectually independent,^[9] and independent of the subject.^[10]

If the depth of coverage is not substantial, then multiple independent sources may be needed to prove notability; trivial coverage of a subject by secondary sources may not be sufficient to establish notability.^[11]

Primary sources may be used to support content in an article, but they do not contribute toward proving the notability of a subject.

Presuming that we would like to admit him as an author, here are the criteria:

Scientists, academics, economists, professors, authors, editors, journalists, filmmakers, photographers, artists, architects, engineers, and other creative professionals:

The person is regarded as an important figure or is widely cited by their peers or successors.

The person is known for originating a significant new concept, theory or technique.

The person has created, or played a major role in co-creating, a significant or well-known work, or collective body of work, which has been the subject of an independent book or feature-length film, or of multiple independent periodical articles or reviews.

The person's work either (a) has become a significant monument, (b) has been a substantial part of a significant exhibition, (c) has won significant critical attention, or (d) is represented within the permanent collections of several notable galleries or museums, or had works in many significant libraries.

See Wikipedia:Notability (academics) for guidelines on academics

If he meets either of these criteria, he is in. As it stands, I don't think that is the case. But maybe I am wrong. Protonk (talk) 18:20, 5 May 2008 (UTC)

Wow Protonk, I generally agree with your views, but do you need to be so verbose? Generally, the policy/guideline pages speak for themselves, and it is sufficient to merely link to them or include small excerpts to reinforce your views; I think providing annotated versions of the content may be a little excessive. I tend to agree with the talk page good practice "Be concise". Adding the bottom footnote/reference section to talkpages is generally dissuaded as it breaks the whole concept of adding new sections to the bottom of a talkpage.

Maybe. You are, of course, free to edit it as you like. I just find that linking it and saying it doesn't really establish the point. In this case, there are reasons that I am using the words "trivial" and "notable" rather than other words. Because I feel they have specific meaning. I'm not dropping this policy here to make a point, but rather to hope to illustrate one. I think that showing the specific wording (wikilawyering!) might help to show that I'm not just calling Rawles's NYT mention trivial because I don't like Rawles. But it is a little excessive. also, I've since changed my mind about the article...at least marginally. Protonk (talk) 01:54, 6 May 2008 (UTC)

[edit] See Also

Are there more things that can go there? Like other survivalists? That way we can link back to rawles from their page. Because this page is orphaned right now. Protonk (talk) 17:47, 6 May 2008 (UTC)

Someone mistakenly removed the "see also" links to Survivalism, and Retreat (survivalism). Another couple of logical ones are Self-sufficiency and Fallout shelter. Other related survivalist biographical pages (where, BTW, I've made editing contributions--so I can vouch that they would be of interest to survivalists) would include: Jerry Ahern, Ragnar Benson, Barton Biggs, Bruce D. Clayton, Jeff Cooper, Pat Frank, Karl Hess, Dean Ing, Cresson Kearny, Jerry Pournelle, Howard Ruff, Kurt Saxon, Joel Skousen, Don Stephens, and of course the Godfather of modern survivalism: Mel Tappan.

Since his FAQ on antique guns is considered a standard reference, a "See also" link from the Rawles bio page to Antique guns would also be apropos.

There were some fairly extensive back-links to the Rawles bio page, but they were all ripped out when the article went through AFD. I was planning to wait until the final okey-dokey (i.e. the AFD flag being dropped) before investing the time to re-establish any of those links. Thanks again for your time and trouble in contributing to this page. - Trasel (talk) 21:02, 6 May 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Notability and References - General Agreement?

The consensus seems to be that Jim Rawles is notable. The article now has 53 references, only a few of which point to his web site, and even those meet the test of WP:SELFPUB. All of the rest of the references are verifiable, third party, and in large proportion from reliable hard copy publications. So, can the Notability and Self-published flags now be dropped? Thanks for everyone's input. -- Trasel (talk) 15:22, 7 May 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Multiple references

Many facts in this article are currently backed up with multiple references, sometimes to the point of absurdity. Multiple references are only needed for highly contentious claims, and even then, usually only two or three are needed. Having an excessive number of references for a fact makes it look like you are trying to add undue weight to the signifigance of the info. I'd like to trim each to only contain one or two references unless more are actually needed. -Verdatum (talk) 16:18, 19 May 2008 (UTC)

I'd take some of them down. A few of the multiple-cited claims became that way (like the Ed. of Defense electronics) because the cites given didn't verify the claim and the claim was important to Rawles's notability. I think correct references have been added (hard copy descriptions)without the originals (reference lists just showing Rawles as a writer) have remained. Same as the Y2k claims (which don't look contentious now but seemed much more so when the article was up for deletion). Protonk (talk) 18:57, 20 May 2008 (UTC)

I'll go ahead and remove some of the references, as discussed. My only reluctance is that this article has come up twice for deletion (one PROD, and one AFD--more recently) in part because it was claimed that there were insufficient references to affirm notability. So if anything, I think we ought to err on the side of too many references, to prevent a repeat of the same cycle. Trasel (talk) 19:30, 20 May 2008 (UTC)

Done. Trasel (talk) 22:12, 20 May 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Not a stub?

Seems like this article isn't a stub anymore. Should the stub tag be removed? 24.130.131.219 (talk) 21:58, 4 June 2008 (UTC)

Agreed. Unless I hear otherwise, I'll drop the Stub flag tomorrow.Trasel (talk) 03:32, 5 June 2008 (UTC)

I removed the stub tag. Needs an infobox and some talk page tags. I'll do the talk page tags. Protonk (talk) 04:17, 5 June 2008 (UTC)

[edit] economic views

I don't want to be adversarial, but I think some of the "economic views" section is vague and too deferential to the subject. Let me explain. This line:

As early as September, 2005, Rawles urged SurvivalBlog readers to stock up on diesel fuel, bulk grains, and ammunition.[15] All three have risen in price substantially, in the interim.

Is factually correct but the implication (left unstated by the evidence and the text) is that Rawles advised people to hoard those items in the face of an immediate and sustained price increase for all of them. those three items seem to me like things a survivalist would want to stock up on anyway, so it isn't really out of his way to recommend them. But as the text suggest now (especially given the section this is under), these predictions were based on his economic acumen and they have been borne out by an increase in the price of those commodities. I'm not suggesting this didn't happen, necessarily. but the reference cited is a general list, not a prediction about future prices.

The section on derivatives should probably be changed a bit as well. It is funny that the lead in paragraph to the derivatives post is a dismissal of the possible bursting of the housing bubble. :) Everyone makes mistakes. Dismissing that bubble and fearing the derivatives bubble puts him in the same boat as about 90% of academic economists in 2006. But the general danger he alludes to fits into TEOTWAKI more so than it does specific economic predictions (that is my opinion). He is very smart and reasoned with his predictions, much better than most armchair economists, but I get the feeling like each prediction is less connected with the events in the market and more connected to possible worst case scenarios for the market itself. That doesn't mean he is wrong, I just thin it means that it either needs to be worded as such or removed.

In some sense, it is ok (again, my opinion) to remove this material because it doesn't really add to the information we have about him. The Usenet post about silver might lend him some cache, but it is one: not true (http://www.kitco.com/ind/Droke/jun052003.html shows that even in 2003, the price is still about 4.25, which is/was probably the minimum it was ever going to reach) and two: not usable for WP:V (since we are appealing to the usenet post as an authority on Rawles' prediction of the market price, see WP:RS).

The 'hyperinflation' concerns are the least well grounded (Again, my opinion here, but I have a little bit of expertise in this area). what Rawles describes in ref 12 isn't actually hyperinflation. He's arguing that fiat currencies don't carry intrinsic values like commodity money (gold/silver) does (did, really). That is 100% true. But it has nothing to do with hyperinflation. Inflation is not unique to fiat currencies. For a good counter-example, take the government of Spain in the 16th Century.

Anyways. That's my 2c. I'm not going to muck around in that section unilaterally, but I figured I'd let you know what I thought. Protonk (talk) 04:56, 5 June 2008 (UTC)

I think that you misunderstood the context of the first paragraph of his piece on derivatives. The context was regarding questions about "worst case scenario" (economic collapse) triggers. Rawles had been warning his readers about the housing bubble and to get out of any rental or "spec" real estate since the first month he posted his blog (August, 2005). See, for example, this post from August 14, 2005, under the title: "The Housing Bubble": "...My advice: Sell any rental or non-retreat vacation houses that you own. Take your profit *now*. It is better to be a year too early than a day too late. Keep that money on the sidelines, with at least a portion of it in precious metals. Then after the bubble bursts, you'll have the chance to step in with cash and buy at perhaps as low as 40 cents on the dollar versus the currently over-inflated prices. When you eventually do decide to buy, concentrate on productive farm land in a lightly populated rural region..." For the full post and context, see: http://www.survivalblog.com/archiveddata.html

Where Rawles disappoints is in failing to make any short-term market predictions. He writes a lot about major (macro level) market trends, but unlike serious economists and investment advisers, he only rarely mentions short term market moves. Well, I should mention that he has specifically said to buy gold and silver at particular market dips, but that is about it. He is more of a vague "big picture" economic commentator. He has been right about most trends, but that doesn't make him a qualified investing adviser. If anything, the wiki bio section should be re-written to make that distinction.

As for his "calling the bottom" on silver, he was essentially correct. After a 20 year bear market, he was accurate was within a few months and within 20 cents of the absolute bottom of $4.13 for spot silver. Both in calendar terms and percentage terms, he was as close to "spot on" as anyone could ever hope to be. Yes, the market did dip again the following year to $4.26, but that was not the real bottom--that was actually AFTER the market had turned the corner and was starting a bull market cycle.

I'll take a stab at adding some more balance to the "economic views" section. As it is presently written, it still has too much of a "cheering section" tone to it. Trasel (talk) 16:54, 5 June 2008 (UTC)

Sure. Like I said, you clearly know more about what he has said and where his beliefs lie than I do, so I'll just suggest change. Notwithstanding, the usenet post should probably not stick around as a reference and the "ammunition, fuel and grains" prediction needs to be an actual prediction, not just something culled from a list of items to prepare for a retreat. Currently, that is where the reference points.

I guess my broader points is that although he is very astute and does cover these issues, they are not discussed (in the references or the text) outside of the broader survivalist context. The housing market is a good example of commentary that is directly related to the issues at hand, but the financial derivative article is more of a particular scenario for the end of civilization. The same with the fear of fiat currencies. The same with urging a policy of contrarian investment. This doesn't mean he is wrong or that those aren't prima facia economic predictions but it does mean that the predictions are more related to survivalism than they are to the economic issues at hand.

The problem then isn't that he predicts trends more broadly than an investment adviser would. The problem is that he depicts (right or wrong) trends insofar as they relate to survivalism.

I might do some tweaking tomorrow. I won't change anything major without posting it here first. Protonk (talk) 21:27, 5 June 2008 (UTC)

You wrote: "...the usenet post should probably not stick around as a reference.

If none of the print media mentioned his prediction at the time, does that mean that it can't be referenced? He is obviously the guy that posted it to Usenet (since the post mentions both his name and his novel's title). Is Way Back Machine considered a more reliable archive than the Google archives? In either case, archived seven year old Usenet posts can't be changed, can they?

You also wrote: "...and the "ammunition, fuel and grains" prediction needs to be an actual prediction, not just something culled from a list of items to prepare for a retreat..."

I'll dig though his blog archives and see what I can find. I'll post those refs, if and when I find any. Trasel (talk) 21:55, 5 June 2008 (UTC)

I found several, and posted them, with references, as promised. My goal was to remove some of the "rah rah" cheering, but the more that I looked through his blog archives, the more that I found he was accurate.Trasel (talk) 23:55, 5 June 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Original research

Thanks to trasel for improving the econ/philosophy section. I changed a few sections but I think we ought to be careful judging the accuracy of Rawles' predictions in the wiki text ourselves. While we may be right, we should either leave the claim where it stands (without adding claims of accuracy) or reference a secondary source. If no such secondary source exists (and we have probably scoured the web of secondary sources), then we ought to be ok leaving it unsaid.

I could be wrong on this, it is certainly on the edge of what OR/SYN is. We have Rawles making a prediction (say, about Oil prices) and then an unrelated story about oil price trends. IMO, what we need is a secondary source saying something along the lines of "Rawles was correct about oil prices". that is probably a VERY narrow reading of what OR is.

thoughts? Protonk (talk) 20:11, 7 June 2008 (UTC)

Rawles has twice made a prediction that is likely to not come true: He predicted that the price of silver will exceed $40 per ounce by the end of the second term of the Bush administration. I think that when an economic prediction is plainly stated with a date attached, and then it can post facto objectively be seen that it either did or didn't come to pass, then doing so does not cross over into "original research" to state the outcome, as long as both the prediction and the actual course of events are properly referenced. As each event horizon passes, the accuracy of predictions can be objectively assessed. That isn't being judgmental. Of course, that is my view, and I'm not sure if that matches the majority of other wiki editors..Trasel (talk) 14:38, 8 June 2008 (UTC)

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