Iowa Democratic caucuses, 2008

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Elections in Iowa

Democratic caucus:
2004 · 2008

Republican caucus:
2008

Presidential Elections:
2004 · 2008

United States Senate Elections:
2008

United States House Elections:
2006

Gubernatorial Elections:
2006
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The 2008 Iowa Democratic caucuses occurred on January 3, 2008, and were the state caucuses of the Democratic Party in Iowa. It was the first election for the Democrats of the 2008 presidential election. Of the eight major Democratic presidential candidates, U.S. Senator Barack Obama of Illinois received the most support, making him the first African American person of any party to carry the caucus.[1] John Edwards came in second and Hillary Clinton came in third, though Clinton received one more delegate than Edwards. Campaigning had begun as early as two years before the event.

The Iowa caucuses have historically been the first caucus held in the United States. The caucus marked the traditional and formal start of the delegate selection process for the 2008 United States presidential election, and the process in which members of the Democratic political party gathered to make policy decisions.[2]

Iowa state law mandates that its caucus must be held at least eight days before any other meeting, caucus, or primary for the presidential nominating process. Therefore, the Iowa caucuses have always been traditionally the leading state in the nominating process. Not only did controversy brew between the candidates, but the caucuses themselves drew a large amount of media attention. The decisions of the Iowans alone could affect the rest of the campaign season.[3]

Contents

[edit] Process

The caucuses followed the regular procedures of the Democratic Party process. Any voter who was a registered Democrat and a resident of Iowa was eligible to participate in the event. Individuals could have chosen to register or change their party affiliation at the door.[2] It was estimated that 60% of the caucus goers would have attended the caucuses for the first time.[4] All of the caucus goers met in public buildings or schools in their respective precincts and divided themselves into groups; each group represented a candidate. The voting was done publicly (viva voce).[5] To be viable, each preference group must have had at least 15% of the caucus goers' votes. If a candidate received less than 15% of the caucus goers' votes, then the supporters of that non-viable candidate had 30 minutes to join a viable candidate's group, join another non-viable candidate's group to make the candidate viable, join an uncommitted group, or choose not to be counted as a voter.[4]

In Iowa, there were 1,784 precincts for the caucuses. Each viable preference group at each caucus elected a certain number of delegates proportional to the group's size that would represent the candidate at the county conventions. There are 99 counties in Iowa, and their Democratic conventions would take place on March 15, 2008. At these conventions, a subset of delegates would be chosen to attend the district, then state conventions. At the state convention on June 14, 2008, a subset of delegates would be chosen to attend the national convention which starts on August 25, 2008. As in the precinct caucuses, the pledged delegates to the national convention will proportionally represent the candidates compared to the results of the state caucus.[5]

[edit] Delegate allocation

The delegate allocation to the national convention is as follows: 29 district delegates will proportionally represent a candidate's support at each Congressional District.[6][7] The First Congressional District receives six pledged delegates, the Second Congressional District receives seven, the Third Congressional District receives six, the Fourth Congressional District receives six, and the Fifth Congressional District receives four. All of these pledged delegates represent each Congressional District independently; they are not affected by the results of the state convention.[7]

At the state convention, on the other hand, sixteen pledged delegates proportionally represent the candidates' support. Ten of these delegates will be designated as at-large, meaning that they represent the entire state as a whole.[6] The other six will be referred to as Party Leaders and Elected Officials (PLEO).[7] These may include members of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), members of the House and the Senate, the governor, and former party leaders. Not all of the PLEOs are pledged,[6] but if they are, they will represent the state as a whole along with the at-large delegates. In total, the Democratic presidential candidates will be allocated a total of forty-five pledged delegates, depending on their support in each district and in the state.[7]

Twelve delegates that do not represent caucus results will be sent to the National Convention; they are referred to as unpledged. Eleven of them are PLEOs, which include six members of the DNC, one Senator, three Representatives, and one Governor.[7][6] Because these unpledged delegates high profiles are usually high profile elected officials, they are referred to as superdelegates.[8] The other unpledged delegate is an add-on delegate, who is selected at the state convention.[7][6]

While this process lasts for a period of approximately five months, the results of the state caucus are usually predictable by the results of the precincts' caucuses combined. Therefore, the results of the precinct caucuses provides a good measurement of Iowa's delegation to the national convention.[2]

[edit] Pre-caucus polls

Pre-caucus opinion polling statistics throughout the campaign season.
See also: Statewide opinion polling for the January Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2008#Iowa

Before the caucuses, the Des Moines Register reported that during a poll of 800 likely Democratic caucus goers from December 27 to December 30, 2007, the candidates had the following results:

The above results have a margin of sampling error of ±3.5%.[4]

Barack Obama's results in the opinion polls rose from 28% in the Des Moines Register's poll in late November 2007. This was in part a result of a "dramatic influx of first-time caucusgoers, including a sizable bloc of political independents."[4] Hillary Clinton remained at a constant 25%, while John Edwards was almost unchanged when his ratings increased to 24% from 23% in November. Approximately one-third of likely caucus goers said that they could have been persuaded to choose a different candidate before the caucuses.[4]

The December results of the Des Moines Register's poll also showed a widened gap between the three-way contest for the lead—Clinton, Edwards, and Obama—and the rest of the Democratic candidates. No other Democrat received more than 6% support of caucus goers.[4]

30% of the sample population from the Des Moines Register's poll said that a candidate's ability to bring about change in the United States was the most important to them. 27% of the population said that a candidate who would be most successful in unifying the country would have taken priority in their votes. Most caucus goers also said that Obama was strong in both of these areas. Having the experience and competence to lead was considered the most important aspect of a candidate by 18% of the sample population; Hillary Clinton was rated best on this trait. Only 6% of the sample population said that being best able to win the general election was the top priority; Hillary Clinton, again, was rated best on this trait.[4]

[edit] Results

See also: Results of the 2008 Democratic Party presidential primaries
Map showing results by county.      Barack Obama      John Edwards      Hillary Clinton
Map showing results by county.[9]      Barack Obama      John Edwards      Hillary Clinton

[edit] Caucus results

Caucus date: January 3, 2008

National pledged delegates determined: 0 (of 45)

Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses, 2008[10]
Candidate Precinct delegates Percentage Estimated national delegates[11][7]
Barack Obama 940 37.58% 16
John Edwards 744 29.75% 14
Hillary Clinton 737 29.47% 15
Bill Richardson 53 2.11% 0
Joe Biden 23 0.93% 0
Christopher Dodd 1 0.02% 0
Mike Gravel 0 0.00% 0
Dennis Kucinich 0 0.00% 0
Uncommitted 3 0.14% 0
Totals 2,501 100.00% 45

The Iowa Democratic Party does not release vote counts (it releases only the number of delegates to the state convention).[12] Since Clinton had the highest delegate strength in the Fifth Congressional District (a district allocated four national convention delegates) and received the same amount of national delegates elsewhere, she projected to receive the one more national delegate than Edwards despite receiving fewer projected delegates to the state convention.[12]

The Democratic National Committee gives the 50 states 794 superdelegates. According to a Jan. 4 poll conducted by the Associated Press, most of the superdelegates were undecided, but 160 had endorsed Clinton, compared to 59 for Obama and 32 for Edwards. Along with the delegates that the candidates secured from Iowa, the numbers were as follows: 175 for Clinton, 75 for Obama, and 46 for Edwards. (To win the Democratic nomination for President 2,024 delegates are needed.)[13] Thus Clinton initially retained an overall delegate lead following the Iowa results.

Dennis Kucinich and Barack Obama competed against each other in the Iowa caucuses, but Kucinich asked that Iowans caucusing for him, should they fail to build a viable preference group on caucus night, realign to Barack Obama in the second round. Both have fought for the same priorities including ending the Iraq War, reforming Washington, and creating a better life for working families. In the 2004 Iowa Democratic caucuses, Kucinich made a similar announcement in favor of John Edwards. At that caucus, Edwards's aides claimed that this request helped put him in second place. In the 2008 caucus, however, Kucinich did not conduct much of a campaign in Iowa. He paid for no organizers nor offices in the state, and he was not invited to the Des Moines Register's debate in December 2007.[14][15] Mike Gravel didn't conduct an active campaign either.[16]

The 2008 caucuses saw a record turnout for both parties, but more notably for the Democratic caucuses, which drew more than 227,000 voters, almost double the Republican turnout.[12] Entrance polling indicated that a significant portion of the turnout came from first-time caucus attendees, as well as attendees under the age of thirty; two groups of voters that primarily lent their support to Barack Obama. Women, previously expected to largely back Hillary Clinton, split their vote between Clinton and Obama, the latter of whom actually received slightly more support.[12] In the aftermath of the results from the Iowa caucuses, Chris Dodd and Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race.[12]

As a result of these caucuses, Barack Obama received a significant surge of support in the state of New Hampshire, which held its Democratic primary five days after the Iowa caucuses.[17] In New Hampshire pre-primary polls conducted from January 4 to January 6, 2008, Obama enjoyed a 13% lead over Clinton.[18]

[edit] County convention results

Convention date: March 15, 2008

National pledged delegates determined: 0 (of 45)

Key: Withdrew
prior to contest
Iowa Democratic presidential county conventions, 2008[19]
Candidate County delegates Percentage Estimated national delegates[7]
Barack Obama 1,299 51.96% 25
Hillary Clinton 802 32.08% 14
John Edwards 388 15.52% 6
Uncommitted 11 0.42% 0
Totals 2,500 100.00% 45

[edit] District convention results

Convention date: April 26, 2008

National pledged delegates determined: 29 (of 45)

Key: Withdrew
prior to contest
Iowa Democratic presidential district conventions, 2008[20]
Candidate Results[7] Estimated Current[7][21]
District delegates Percentage District delegates National delegates
Barack Obama 16 55.17% 20 28
Hillary Clinton 9 31.03% 9 14
John Edwards 4 13.79% 0 3
Totals 29 100.00% 29 45

[edit] State convention results

Convention date: June 14, 2008

National pledged delegates determined: 16 (of 45)

Key: Withdrew
prior to contest
Iowa Democratic presidential state convention, 2008
Candidate At-large/ PLEO delegates Percentage National delegates
- 0 0.00% 0
- 0 0.00% 0
Totals 16 0.00% 45

[edit] Economic impact

The economic impact of the 2004 Iowa Democratic caucuses was estimated at roughly $50 to $60 million. Considering the fact that the candidates from both the Democratic and Republican parties competitively raced for the nomination and an early start to the campaign season, the Iowa Department of Economic Development stated that the economic impact of the 2008 caucuses would be much greater than that of 2004. The caucuses also give the Iowa Department of Economic Development the opportunity to showcase its state's leaderhip role in renewable energy, manufacturing, and the biosciences, or to show the state's top ranking in the quality of life.[2]

In addition, various trade officials, ambassadors, and economists came together on the same day of the caucuses at the World Trade Organization's Headquarters in Geneva to kick off their seventh year of their Doha round trade talks. Those who attended the meeting also closely watched the caucuses because the candidate who wins the United States presidency is going to be a major factor in international trade. Hillary Clinton has called for a "break" in international trade talks. John Edwards and Barack Obama, to a lesser extent, have expressed skepticism on the kinds of free-trade deals that are discussed at the Doha rounds. The Republicans with President George W. Bush, on the other hand, openly supported the trade agreements.[22]

[edit] See also

[edit] References

  1. ^ Shepherd, Julianne. "Barack Obama Takes Iowa Caucuses; Senator Could Become America's First Black President", Vibe, 2008-01-04. Retrieved on 2008-03-05. 
  2. ^ a b c d About the Iowa Caucuses. Iowa Caucus 2008. Iowa Department of Economic Development (2007). Retrieved on 2008-01-03.
  3. ^ Best, Amy. Iowa Caucuses: The Importance of Being First.. The Cube. Iowa Department of Economic Development. Retrieved on 2008-02-01.
  4. ^ a b c d e f g Beaumont, Thomas. "New Iowa Poll: Obama widens lead over Clinton", DesMoinesRegister.com, Des Moines Register and Tribune Company, 2008-01-01. Retrieved on 2008-01-03. 
  5. ^ a b Gill, Kathy (2008). How Do The Iowa Caucuses Work?. About.com US Politics. About. Retrieved on 2008-01-09.
  6. ^ a b c d e How To Become A Delegate. The 2008 Democratic National Convention. 2008 Democratic National Convention Committee (2008). Retrieved on 2008-01-15.
  7. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Berg-Andersson, Richard E. (2008-05-15). Iowa Democratic Delegation 2008. The Green Papers. Retrieved on 2008-05-16.
  8. ^ The Associated Press. "What Are Delegates?", AOL News, 2007-12-20. Retrieved on 2008-01-24. 
  9. ^ "ElectionCenter2008; Iowa Caucuses (Special Coverage) County Results". CNN. CNN. 2008-01-03.
  10. ^ Iowa Democratic Party Caucus Results. Iowa Democratic Party (2008-01-23). Retrieved on 2008-01-23.
  11. ^ These numbers represent the estimates as determined shortly after the caucuses. Subsequent nomination events in Iowa altered these estimates, which are not reflected here. Instead, updated estimates are given with the results for subsequent events.
  12. ^ a b c d e "America Votes 2008; Iowa Caucuses (Special Coverage)". CNN. CNN. 2008-01-03.
  13. ^ Associated Press. "Clinton still leads in overall delegate race, despite losing in Iowa", 2008-01-04. Retrieved on 2008-01-04. 
  14. ^ Kucinich Asks Supporters to Back Obama. Associated Press. 2008-01-02.
  15. ^ Zeleny, Jeff. Kucinich Tells Supporters to Caucus for Obama. The New York Times. 2008-01-01.
  16. ^ "Second-Tier Dems Hope for Caucus Boost", WHO-TV, 2008-01-03. Retrieved on 2008-01-04. 
  17. ^ Liasson, Mara; Siegel, Robert. "What's at Stake in the New Hampshire Primary", National Public Radio, NPR and the Associated Press, 2008-01-08. Retrieved on 2008-01-14. 
  18. ^ Memmott, Mark; Lawrence, Jill. "Obama up by 13 points, McCain up by 4 in USAT/Gallup Poll in N.H.", USAToday.com, USA Today, 2008-01-06. Retrieved on 2008-01-14. 
  19. ^ Iowa Caucus and County Convention Results by County 2008. Iowa Democratic Party (2008-03-12). Retrieved on 2008-05-16.
  20. ^ Iowa Democratic Party Announces Results from Today's District Conventions. Iowa Democratic Party (2008-04-26). Retrieved on 2008-04-26.
  21. ^ 2008 Democratic Convention Watch: What happens to Edwards' delegates?. Democratic Convention Watch (2008-06-04). Retrieved on 2008-06-04. “Edwards still has 3 state-wide delegates from Iowa, which will be allocated at the Iowa State Convention on June 14th. They will remain in Edwards column until then.”
  22. ^ Miller, John W.. "World Trade Talks in Geneva Keep One Eye on Iowa Caucus", The Wall Street Journal, 2007-12-31. 

[edit] External links


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