Talk:Inductive reasoning

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[edit] jargon

In the introduction of the article, the term "tokens" is used without explanation. Could the writer please explain it or use a simpler term? Peter Johnson 64.231.45.249 04:04, 5 April 2006 (UTC)

[edit] abduction

I find the sentence (in the section ==Validity==)

The writer John Barnes outlined a third method of reasoning, called "abduction", in his book Finity ...

highly questionable. --Arno Matthias 23:23, 24 November 2006 (UTC)

And so it has been removed. Feel free to be a little bold the next time a random anon adds nonsense to an article. Simões (^talk/_contribs) 00:21, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

...well... I haven't read "Finity"... maybe it is pure genius... --Arno Matthias 14:26, 25 November 2006 (UTC)

[edit] References

This article states many facts, of who said what, without proper citations, of where and when. Please help to improve. - 89.247.34.119 20:52, 19 February 2007 (UTC)

To my knowledge, abduction was first introduced by the philosopher Charles Saunders Peirce. It is analogous to an "inference to the best explanation", but it is no inductive principle.

[edit] Unclear explanation - "strong induction"

The explanation for the following example of "strong induction" seems unclear:

"All observed crows are black. therefore All crows are black. This exemplifies the nature of induction: inducing the universal from the particular. However, the conclusion is not certain. Unless we can systematically verify the possibility of crows of another color, the statement may actually be false."

The problem is that the syntax of the final sentence--which I take to mean that we can legitimately conclude "all crows are black" from the fact that "all observed crows are black" ONLY if "we can systematically verify the [IMPOSSIBILITY] of crows of another color"--makes it difficult to untangle the logic of the resulting statement. If I follow the argument correctly, I believe the sentence should read: "Unless we can systematically verify the IMPOSSIBLITY of crows of another color, the statement may actually be false."

Califgrll 21:42, 24 February 2007 (UTC)

Changed the relevant sentence, it now reads: "falsify the possibility" because I think its more precise than your (nevertheless correct) suggestion. This is due to falsificating the negation of a proposition being the only way to verify a proposition. -Dalailowmo 217.234.81.64 09:39, 25 May 2007 (UTC)

There is also another problem with that section: "A strong induction is thus an argument in which the truth of the premises would make the truth of the conclusion probable, but not definite."

That's not true. Including more inductive cases has absolutely no bearing on the probability of truth or falsity of the statement. With the crows, for example, seeing MORE black crows doesn't mean it's any more probable that only black crows exist. This is actually an important point; it is the foundation of many anti-scientific claims. Famously, it is also the basis of Hume's system -- that we have no real evidence whatsoever to believe that the sun will rise tomorrow.

Furthermore, I think the entire section of strong vs. weak induction is pretty, well -- weak. Once you realize that additional cases don't have any bearing on the truth or falsity of a proposition, you'll see that they are, in reality, no different (unless you're one of the very few that foolishly defends probabilistic induction). -Tris

[edit] Citations

I notice there are a whopping 34 citations for the last sentence in the introduction, and none anywhere else. Does this strike anyone else as odd? --Wayne Miller 15:01, 2 August 2007 (UTC)

It's clearly an overkill, just a few of the most significant ones should be left. Reinis^talk 23:19, 28 August 2007 (UTC)

That's approximately the coolest thing I've seen on this site.

[edit] Article Lacks Clarity

This article could use a general edit I think - though I am unqualified to do it. the following paragraph was particulary opaque to me:

It is however possible to derive a true statement using inductive reasoning if you know the conclusion. The only way to have an efficient argument by induction is for the known conclusion to be able to be true only if an unstated external conclusion is true, from which the initial conclusion was built and has certain criteria to be met in order to be true (separate from the stated conclusion). By substitution of one conclusion for the other, you can inductively find out what evidence you need in order for your induction to be true. For example, you have a window that opens only one way, but not the other. Assuming that you know that the only way for that to happen is that the hinges are faulty, inductively you can postulate that the only way for that window to be fixed would be to apply oil (whatever will fix the unstated conclusion). From there on you can successfully build your case. However, if your unstated conclusion is false, which can only be proven by deductive reasoning, then your whole argument by induction collapses. Thus ultimately, pure inductive reasoning does not exist.

Thanks! Cyclopsface 21:58, 27 August 2007 (UTC)

The intro, especially the sentence with 34 citations, is currently an attack. It lacks a balance which John Awbrey's edits once provided, as this is only one type of reasoning cataloged by C. S. Peirce. --Ancheta Wis 10:14, 20 September 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Inconsistent Treatment, Factual, and Technical Errors

There are a number problems here, some debatable, some not.

There are two main types of induction. One is mathematical and produces certain results, and the other basically says (for example) that since the sun has not failed to rise every 24 hours or so, it will not fail to rise within the next 24 hours. In Principles of Mathematics (1903), Bertrand Russell calls mathematical induction "disguised deduction" and the other kind of induction he calls a method of making guesses. The first characterization is debatable, the second is not.

So the editorial claim, "Inductive reasoning is the complement of deductive reasoning." is at least imprecise.

Mathematical induction has been used when a set is constructed from an initial state and a generative principle, and it can be shown that all members of the set must have a particular property. Also proofs using mathematical induction use the natural numbers for the incremental and ordinal properties of the set, but mathematical induction is not a statement about the natural numbers per se (as stated in the entry on that subject).

The other kind of induction has been used when we project a trend. Neither mathematical induction nor the other kind of induction has anything to do with syllogisms or argument by authority. I haven't read the (what 5 with virtually the same title?) Popper articles, but I suspect some of the things being classed as induction are there because someone wants to declare that only deduction is logically valid and therefore lumps anything they consider not logical (i.e. the complement) into "induction".

Returning to syllogisms, deductive reasoning has syllogism as a result, but syllogism is not deductive reasoning per se (in the sense that Sherlock Holmes uses the phrase). Literal deduction consists in eliminating all impossible conclusions, leaving the set of possible conclusions.

Abductive reasoning is much closer to what is called statistical syllogism (though not as statistical syllogism is represented on this page). It consists of interpreting a large number of facts to infer a consistent general principle. Abduction usually appears in the context of diagnosis; so it is usually concerned with discerning causal principles.

Umberto Eco (possibly originally from Charles Peirce. Sorry, I don't recall the citation - probably Semiotics and the Philosophy of Language) described the three thus (I'm paraphrasing and augmenting):

Deduction proceeds from certain general qualities to certain logical cases to specific factual inferences. Induction proceeds from specific facts to categorical cases to inferring general principles. Abduction proceeds from specific facts to consistent general principles without inferring cases.

All this differentiation is subject to the same debate that Russell introduced (if he was the one who originally introduced it - I don't know), but it is almost certainly true that calling induction the complement of deduction is misleading and organizes the entries incorrectly.

Kikilamb 20:57, 11 October 2007 (UTC)

Regarding the section on Inductive strength, I thought Strength just meant how much new information the conclusion was telling you. For example (Weak)"Tomarrow the sun will rise." to (Strong)"Tomarrow , on the East Coast, the sun will rise at 6:51 am". The Weak Induction section refers to overgeneralization, which is topic in Inductive probability. I'm confused. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 69.124.128.196 (talk) 14:36, 2 February 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Argument by Authority

"Authority" in this context is a social status. There are many rationales for designating an authority, such as "Religious text X said so.", "My father said so, and my father wouldn't lie to me.", or the given rationale "The source has been truthful in the past."

It is one thing for us to say that a source has been truthful in the past and therefore they will probably be truthful in the future, and it is another to say that a source has been truthful in the past and therefore they are probably being truthful now. The latter is not a type of reasoning; in fact, it is an abdication of reasoning. On that basis, all designators of authority/oraclehood in this context, including ones that seem inductive, I call rationalizations rather than reasons. Since this is not reasoning, it cannot be some subtype of reasoning; and specifically, it is not inductive reasoning.

On that basis I have deleted the subentry. —Preceding unsigned comment added by Kikilamb (talk • contribs) 21:26, 13 March 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Deductive reasoning vs experimental evidence

Under "Validity" "By substitution of one conclusion for the other, you can inductively find out what evidence you need in order for your induction to be true. For example, you have a window that opens only one way, but not the other. Assuming that you know that the only way for that to happen is that the hinges are faulty, inductively you can postulate that the only way for that window to be fixed would be to apply oil (whatever will fix the unstated conclusion). From there on you can successfully build your case. However, if your unstated conclusion is false, which can only be proven by deductive reasoning, then your whole argument by induction collapses." - I assume it's possible that the falseness of the unstated conclusion could also be determined thru experimental evidence (direct sensual knowing), or is evidence considered part of deductive reasoning? You try oiling the hinge but the window still isn't fixed, obviously (before formal reasoning can take place) oiling didn't fix the window, or, inductively, an alternate hypothesis as to what will fix the window is generated - "hitting the window hinge with a hammer will fix this". --69.243.168.118 (talk) 03:38, 23 March 2008 (UTC)