Indian general elections, 2004-Regional Scenarios

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[edit] Regional Scenarios

[edit] Andhra Pradesh

In AP Lok Sabha elections and state assembly elections were held simultaneously. In both, the ruling Telugu Desam Party-BJP combine were routed. BJP could not win a single seat. Congress had contested in alliance with Telangana Rashtra Samithi (a TDP splinter-group, working for the separation of Telangana from AP) and the communist parties. The islamist All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimen retained their stronghold in the Hyderabad constituency.

Party Votes % Change Seats Change
Bahujan Samaj Party 507,381 1.43 - 0 -
Bharatiya Janata Party 3,006,018 8.41 -1.49 0 -7
Communist Party of India 479,511 1.34 +0.1 1 +1
Communist Party of India (Marxist) 373,148 1,04 -0,36 1 +1
Indian National Congress 14,861,984 41.56 -1.23 29 +24
Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation 9,458 0.03 0.0 0 -
Indian Union Muslim League 16,313 0.05 - 0 -
Rashtriya Janata Dal 7.260 0.02 +0.02 0 -
Samajwadi Party 41,770 0.12 +0.7 0 -
Telugu Desam Party 11,844,811 33.12 -6.73 5 -24
All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimen 417,248 1.17 -0.17 1 -
Telangana Rashtra Samithi 2,441,405 6.83 - 5 +5
Other parties 272,948 7.63 - 0 -
Independents 1,483,415 4.15 +2.74 0 -
Total 35,762,670 - - 42 -

[edit] Arunachal Pradesh

Party politics in Arunachal had been rather unstable during the last years. In 2003 a major chunk of former Congressmen joined BJP, and formed a government in the state. BJP was for the first time a strong force in the state, and contested both seats. Congress had an alliance with its splinter-group Arunachal Congress. Congress candidate and former Arunachal Congress leader Wangcha Rajkumar contested Arunchal East and AC candidate Kamen Ringu contested Arunachal West. Nationalist Trinamool Congress (evolved out of Sangma wing of NCP in the state, a member of NDA) had a candidate in Arunachal West, competing against BJP. BJP won both seats with comfortable margins.

Polling took place in the state overshadowed by a boycott call from All Arunachal Pradesh Students Union over the inclusion of Chakma and Hajong refugees in the voters lists.

Party Votes % Change Seats Change
Bharatiya Janata Party 207,286 53.85 +37.55 2 +2
Indian National Congress 38,341 9.96 -46.96 0 -2
Arunachal Congress 76,527 19.88 +3.26 0 -
Nationalist Trinamool Congress (*) 6,241 1.62 -6.15 0 -
Samajwadi Party 4,901 1.27 - 0 -
Samata Party 4,896 1.27 - 0 -
Independents 46,736 12.14 - 0 -
Total 384,928 - - 2 -

(*)= 1999 numbers are those of the Nationalist Congress Party.

[edit] Assam

In Assam there was a three-cornered contest between Congress, BJP and Asom Gana Parishad (the main regional party of the state). Congress contested all 14 seats in the states, BJP 12 and AGP 12. BJP supported one JD(U) candidate and the Bodo nationalist candidate in Kokrajhar. The left parties (CPI(M), CPI and CPI(ML)L) had a joint front. Congress won nine seats. AGP got a comeback, winning two seats. BJP also won two seats, although one of them was the popular singer Bhupen Hazarika. Hazarika stood in Guwahati, and his election ought to reflect his personal popularity, rather than that of the party he had just joined. CPI(ML)L lost its seat in the Karbi Anlong hills, largely due to a split in their mass organization there and the resurgence of communal violence in the area. In Kokrajhar the Bodo nationalist and NDA-supported candidate, Sansuma Khunggur Bwismuthiary, retained his seat.

Party Votes % Change Seats Change
Bharatiya Janata Party 2,379,524 22.94 -6.9 2 -
Communist Party of India 172,332 1.66 +1.08 0 -
Communist Party of India (Marxist) 68,627 0,66 -1.11 0 -
Indian National Congress 3637405 35.07 -3.35 9 -1
Asom Gana Parishad 2,069,600 19.95 +8.03 2 +2
Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation 108,837 1.05 -1.12 0 -1
Janata Dal (United) 125,966 1.21 - 0 -
Indian Union Muslim League 3,533 0.03 - 0 -
Revolutionary Socialist Party 11,757 0.11 - 0 -
Samajwadi Party 109,088 1.05 +0.85 0 -
Other parties 294,482 2.84 - 0 -
Independents 1,390,938 13.41 +4.05 1 -
Total 10,372,089 - - 12 -

[edit] Bihar

In Bihar the RJD leader Laloo Prasad Yadav, husband of the Bihar Chief Minister Rabri Devi, was able to assemble a broad coalition of anti-NDA parties. It included RJD, Congress, Lok Janshakti, NCP and CPI(M). Congress posed larged scepticism towards the coalition, since the party was only allotted four seats by Laloo. The other coalition partners argued that four seats actually reflected the decreasing strength of Congress in the state. Lok Janshakti, a party with strong support amongst Dalit communities, were allotted eight seats. NCP and CPI(M) were allotted one seat each. RJD itself contested 26 seats.

Two large non-NDA parties in the state, CPI and CPI(ML) Liberation, did not join the Laloo-led front but contested individually. CPI(ML)L contested 21 seats and CPI six.

The NDA front consisted of BJP and JD(U). The alliance was threatened at several points, over disagreements on seat-sharing formulas. In the end JD(U) contested 24 seats and BJP 16.

BSP contested all 40 seats and SP 32 on their own, unsuccessfully. Lok Janshakti held sway over Dalit votes and RJD over Yadav votes, thus making it impossible for the Uttar Pradesh-based caste parties to make a breakthrough in the state.

The result was an overwhelming victory for the Laloo-led coalition. It won 29 seats. The rest went to the BJP-JD(U) combine.

Voting in the state was confronted with many irregularities, and repolling was ordered in four constituencies.

Party Votes % Change Seats Change
Bahujan Samaj Party 1,050,484 3.58 +2.6 0 -
Bharatiya Janata Party 4,272,195 14.57 -8.44 5 -18
Communist Party of India 343,926 1.17 -1.52 0 -
Communist Party of India (Marxist) 227,298 0,77 -0,21 0 -1
Indian National Congress 1,315,935 4.49 -4.23 3 -1
Nationalist Congress Party 286,357 0.98 -0.36 1 +1
Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation 705,783 2.41 -0.06 0 -
Janata Dal (Secular) 5,559 0.02 -0.12 0 -
Janata Dal (United) 6,558,538 22.36 +1.59 6 -12
Rashtriya Janata Dal 8,994,821 30.67 +2.38 22 +15
Rashtriya Lok Dal 21,801 0.07 +0.04 0 -
Samajwadi Party 684,200 2.33 - 0 -
Shiv Sena 23,124 0.08 +0.05 0 -
Lok Janshakti Party 2,402,603 8.19 - 4 +4
Samajwadi Janata Party (Rashtriya) 32,352 0.11 +0.04 0 -
Other parties 461,712 1.57 - 0 -
Independents 1,931,555 6.59 +2.43 0 -1
Total 29,329,444 - - 40 -

Note: In 1999, before Jharkhand was created as a separate state, Bihar had 54 constituencies.

[edit] Goa

Goa

In Goa the fight stood between BJP (holding the state government) and a Congress-NCP alliance. Congress won one seat and BJP the other. The Goan regional parties, MGP and UGDP, only gathered a minor portion of the votes.

Party Votes % Change Seats Change
Bharatiya Janata Party 258,750 46.83 -4.66 1 -1
Communist Party of India 12,015 2.17 -0.76 0 -
Indian National Congress 164,432 29.76 -9.25 1 +1
Nationalist Congress Party 88,629 16.04 +12.25 0 -
Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party 7,584 1.37 - 0 -
Shiv Sena 6,244 1.13 +0.34 0 -
United Goans Democratic Party 5,881 1.06 - 0 -
Independents 8,962 1.62 +0.12 0 -
Total 552,497 - - 2 -

[edit] Gujarat

In Gujarat the fight stood between BJP and Congress. BJP all 26 seats. Congress contested 25 seats and had allotted the 26th one to the NCP. A major election issue was the role of the BJP state government in the massacres on Muslims in 2002. BJP, which had won landslide victories in the Lok Sabha elections 1999 and state assembly elections 2002, suffered a set-back.

Party Votes % Change Seats Change
Bahujan Samaj Party 225,637 1.48 +1.41 0 -
Bharatiya Janata Party 7,204,915 47.32 -5.11 14 -6
Communist Party of India (Marxist) 16,301 0.11 - 0 -
Indian National Congress 6,671,926 43.86 -1.58 12 +6
Nationalist Congress Party 176,634 1.16 +0.64 0 -
Janata Dal (United) 130,403 0.86 +0.46 0 -
Samajwadi Party 80,352 0.53 +0.40 0 -
Bharatiya Navshakti Party 136,415 0.9 - 0 -
Lok Janshakti Party 7,142 0.05 - 0 -
Other parties 36,124 0.24 - 0 -
Independents 525,055 3.45 +2.78 0 -
Total 15,210,904 - - 26 -

[edit] Haryana

Haryana saw a three-cornered contest between BJP, Congress and the Indian National Lok Dal. The latter party holds the current state government. In 1999 the NDA-combine, INLD and BJP, had made a clean sweep and won all ten seats. After that INLD had left NDA. This time INLD, BJP, Congress and BSP all contested all ten seats. Haryana Vikas Party contested nine of the seats. A new force, Ekta Shakti, contested three seats on a populist agenda. The result was a land-slide victory for Congress.

Party Votes % Change Seats Change
Bahujan Samaj Party 403,254 4.98 +3.02 0 -
Bharatiya Janata Party 1,393,106 17.21 -12 1 -4
Indian National Congress 3,409,950 42.13 +7.2 9 +9
All India Forward Bloc 2,637 0.03 - 0 -
Indian National Lok Dal 1,815,683 22.43 -6.29 0 -5
Janata Dal (Secular) 1,346 0.02 +0 0 -
Rashtriya Lok Dal 1,849 0.02 - 0 -
Samajwadi Party 137,050 1.69 +1.27 0 -
Shiv Sena 5,235 0.06 - 0 -
Ekta Shakti 126,924 1.57 - 0 -
Haryana Vikas Party 506,122 6.25 +3.55 0 -
Lok Janshakti Party 6,510 0.08 - 0 -
Other parties 31,812 0.39 - 0 -
Independents 249,413 3.08 +1.47 0 -
Total 8,093,378 - - 10 -

[edit] Himachal Pradesh

Himachal Pradesh had a head-to-head struggle between Congress and BJP. In 1999 BJP had a local ally, Sukh Ram's Himachal Vikas Congress. But just ahead of the 2004 elections Sukh Ram returned to Congress. This time Congress won three of the four seats. The result was a follow-up of the Congress victory in the state assembly elections in 2003.

Party Votes % Change Seats Change
Bahujan Samaj Party 43,475 1.74 +0.4 0 -
Bharatiya Janata Party 1,104,066 44.24 -2.03 1 -2
Indian National Congress 1,294,988 51,89 +12.37 3 +3
Janata Dal (Secular) 4,453 0.18 -0.01 0 -
Samajwadi Party 7,092 0.28 +0.19 0 -
Independents 41,412 1.66 +1.18 0 -
Total 2,495,486 - - 4 -

[edit] Jammu and Kashmir

In 2003 the historical regional party of the state, National Conference, had left NDA. In October 2002 it had lost the state government to a Congress-PDP coalition. This time Congress and PDP contested as an alliance, having three candidates each. PDP contested the Muslim-majority constituencies, whereas Congress contested in the two Jammu seats and Srinagar. In Srinagar PDP and INC competed against each other. BJP and NC had six candidates each. CPI(M) fielded their high-profile leader M.Y. Tarigami in Anantnag.

The Congress-PDP combine won three seats. Congress won both seats in Jammu. PDP leader Mehbooba Mufti won the Anantnag seat. In Ladakh, a pro-autonomy independent won with a clear margin. NC won Srinagar and Baramulla. Its party leader Omar Abdullah won the Srinagar seat.

Party Votes % Change Seats Change
Bahujan Samaj Party 49,754 2.22 -2.62 0 -
Bharatiya Janata Party 515,965 23.04 -8.52 0 -2
Communist Party of India (Marxist) 18,466 0.82 -0.12 0 -
Indian National Congress 623,182 27.83 +10 2 +2
All India Forward Bloc 5,457 0.24 - 0 -
Jammu and Kashmir National Conference 493,067 22.02 -6.92 2 -2
Jammu and Kashmir National Panthers Party 67,619 3.02 +2.14 0 -
Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party 267,457 11.94 - 1 +1
Janata Dal (Secular) 1,616 0.07 -0.85 0 -
Jammu and Kashmir National Conference 493,067 22.02 -6.92 2 -2
Rashtriya Lok Dal 1,115 0.05 -0.01 0 -
Samajwadi Party 5,883 0.26 - 0 -
Lok Janshakti Party 3,080 0.14 - 0 -
Republican Party of India 2,579 0.12 - 0 -
Samajwadi Janata Party (Rashtriya) 3,288 0.15 -0.5 0 -
Other parties 15,462 0.69 - 0 -
Independents 165,352 7.38 -2.25 1 +1
Total 2,239,342 - - 6 -

[edit] Karnataka

Karnataka, which held simultaneous Lok Sabha and state assembly elections, saw a three-cornered struggle between Congress, BJP and JD(S). BJP was on the offensive ahead of the elections, Karnataka was to become the opening in the South for the party. It could ride on an antiincumbency wave against the sitting Congress state government. At the same time, its NDA ally JD(U) had declined severely in the state. BJP contested 24 seats and JD(U) the remaining four.

Congress and JD(S) both contested all 28 seats. The communist parties (CPI(M) and CPI) stayed out of the Lok Sabha contest, and focused on the assembly elections. BJP made impressive gains, although the losses of Congress were not as bad as some predictions had pictured it.

Party Votes % Change Seats Change
Bahujan Samaj Party 305,435 1.22 +0.57 0 -
Bharatiya Janata Party 8,732,783 34.77 +7.58 18 +17
Indian National Congress 9,247,605 27.83 -8.59 8 -10
All India Forward Bloc 3,900 0.02 - 0 -
Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation 12,413 0.05 - 0 -
Indian Union Muslim League 4,268 0.02 - 0 -
Janata Dal (Secular) 5,135,205 20.45 +9.6 2 +2
Janata Dal (United) 468,682 1.87 -12.01 0 -3
Rashtriya Janata Dal 14,388 0.06 - 0 -
Samajwadi Party 19,027 0.08 +0.06 0 -
Shiv Sena 27,853 0.11 - 0 -
Kannada Nadu Party 349,183 1.39 - 0 -
Other parties 205,800 0.82 - 0 -
Independents 588,117 2.34 +0.53 0 -
Total 25,114,659 - - 28 -

[edit] Kerala

In Kerala the main fight stood between the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front and the Congress-led United Democratic Front. UDF holds the current government. LDF had launched 13 CPI(M) candidates, 4 from CPI, one JD(S), one Kerala Congress and one independent. UDF had launched 17 Congress candidates, 2 Muslim League candidates and one Kerala Congress (Mani) candidate.

NDA, 19 BJP candidates and one IFDP candidate, stood as a third front.

The result was a landslide victory for LDF. It won 18 seats, and was close to win a 19th. Congress was wiped out completely. Muslim League lost one seat that had been considered as a 'safe seat' for many years.

BJP had hoped to won the Thiruvananthapuram seat with its candidate O Rajagopal (Minister at the Centre), but drew blank. But its NDA ally IFDP won one seat, being the first NDA MP elected from the state. The result later provoked the resignition of Chief Minister A.K. Anthony.

Party Votes % Change Seats Change
Bahujan Samaj Party 74,656 0.49 +0.4 0 -
Bharatiya Janata Party 1,566,569,783 10.38 +3.82 0 -
Communist Party of India 1,190,526 7.89 +0.32 3 +3
Communist Party of India (Marxist) 4,754,567 31.52 +3.62 12 +4
Indian National Congress 4,846,637 32.13 -7.22 0 -8
Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation 3,270 0.02 - 0 -
Indian Union Muslim League 733,228 4.86 -0.41 1 -1
Janata Dal (Secular) 340,111 2.25 +0.08 1 +1
Janata Dal (United) 7,806 0.05 -1.3 0 -
Kerala Congress 353,905 2.35 -0.03 1 -
Kerala Congress (Mani) 209,880 1.39 -0.93 0 -1
Rashtriya Lok Dal 3,485 0.02 - 0 -
Indian Federal Democratic Party 256,411 1.70 - 1 +1
Other parties 51,225 0.34 - 0 -
Independents 694,512 4.60 -0.16 1 +1
Total 15,086,428 - - 20 -

[edit] Madhya Pradesh

In Madhya Pradesh, a major state in the Hindi belt, the battle stood between BJP and Congress. Both parties nominated candidates in all 29 constituencies. The GGP could muster some votes in tribal areas, but drew blank.

The result was a landslide victory for BJP, which could ride an anti-incumbency wave that overthrew a Congress ministry in the 2003 state assembly elections.

Party Votes % Change Seats Change
Bahujan Samaj Party 876,871 4.75 -0.48 0 -
Bharatiya Janata Party 8,884,913 48.13 +1.55 25 -4
Communist Party of India 43,462 0.24 +0.01 0 -
Communist Party of India (Marxist) 9,936 0.05 0.00 0 -
Indian National Congress 6,289,013 34.07 -9.84 4 -7
Nationalist Congress Party 24,570 0.13 -0.05 0 -
Janata Dal (Secular) 7,074 0.04 -0.03 0 -
Janata Dal (United) 18,334 0.2 +0.08 0 -
Rashtriya Lok Dal 21,323 0.12 - 0 -
Samajwadi Party 590,090 3.20 +1.83 0 0
Gondvana Ganatantra Party 563,676 3.05 +2.69 0 -
Lok Janshakti Party 21,360 0.12 - 0 -
National Loktantrik Party 3,183 0.02 - 0 -
Republican Party of India 7,418 0.04 - 0 -
Republican Party of India (Athvale) 6,426 0.03 - 0 -
Samajwadi Party 590,090 3.20 +1.83 0 0
Other parties 349,393 1.89 - 0 -
Independents 742,198 4.02 +2.94 0 -
Total 18,459,240 - - 29 -

Note: In 1999, before Chattisgarh was created as a separate state, Madhya Pradesh had 40 MPs.

[edit] Maharashtra

In Maharashtra the battle stood between the governing Democratic Front (NCP, Congress, JD(S) and various RPI factions) and the opposition BJP-Shiv Sena combine. There was an anti-incumbency wave against the state government, especially in the drought-affected interior parts of the state. In those areas the BJP-SS combine did well. In the Konkan and Mumbai, NCP-Congress did well. In 1999 NCP and Congress had been confronting each other, creating a three-cornered contest benefitting BJP-SS. This time NCP and Congress were united, and could gain more seats. Thus the result became a fractured one.

Party Votes % Change Seats Change
Bahujan Samaj Party 1,046,234 3.05 +2.73 0 -
Bharatiya Janata Party 7,745,290 22.61 +1.43 13 -
Communist Party of India 17,831 0.05 -0.01 0 -
Communist Party of India (Marxist) 246,349 0.72 +0.2 0 -
Indian National Congress 8,143,246 23.77 -5.94 13 +3
Nationalist Congress Party 6,271,036 18.31 -3.27 9 +3
Janata Dal (Secular) 213,731 0.62 -0.29 0 -1
Indian Union Muslim League 1,921 0.01 - 0 -
Rashtriya Lok Dal 7,628 0.02 - 0 -
Samajwadi Party 269,121 0.79 +0.44 0 -
Shiv Sena 6,888,306 20.11 +3.25 12 -3
Bharipa Bahujan Mahasabha 428,566 1.25 -0.85 0 -1
National Loktantrik Party 26,454 0.08 - 0 -
Peasants and Workers Party of India 319,572 0.93 +0.07 0 -1
Republican Party of India (Athvale) 347,215 1.01 - 1 +1
Samajwadi Party 590,090 3.20 +1.83 0 0
Other parties 946,949 2.76 - 0 -
Independents 1,333,828 3.89 +0.62 0 -1
Total 34,253,278 - - 48 -