Talk:Gold as an investment

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This is the talk page for discussing improvements to the Gold as an investment article.
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Gold as an investment was a good article nominee, but did not meet the good article criteria at the time. There are suggestions below for improving the article. Once these are addressed, the article can be renominated. Editors may also seek a reassessment of the decision if they believe there was a mistake.

Reviewed version: November 17, 2007
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[edit] Let's use the M3b to continue showing the increase in money supply

The M3 is still tracked at M3b here:

It currently is as 13.2 Trillion for the month of March, 2008. mickrussom (talk) 21:37, 18 March 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Is It Too Late To Invest In Gold?

[edit] Changed the article grade

This article seems better than "start" grade to me. Prestonp 15:13, 5 November 2007 (UTC)

I noticed the good article tag on the talk page (only), with only a single line as justification. Also it looks like the reviewer has been extensively involved in writing the article. Writing and reviewing the same article should be avoided. Please let me know if I've misinterpreted this, otherwise I'll probably list it at WP:GAR. Please also see WP:WIAGA. My concern is that it looks somewhat POV Thanks,Smallbones 16:39, 12 November 2007 (UTC)
I'd be happy to discuss the article with you and make whatever changes were deemed necessary. I don't really understand the NPOV criticism. The article seems relatively straight forward and points out that stocks outperform gold bullion in the United States over a significantly long time frame, which was my addition, BTW. Prestonp 19:02, 12 November 2007 (UTC)
"Somewhat POV" - is better than a lot of finance articles. The section "Factors that affect Gold price" - looks like a list of everything that makes gold go up. One of the links looks like a Gold Bug website with a page dedicated specifically to wikipedia readers. The formatting, with links to more specific articles, but without much text in this article. This is just off the top of my head, but I'm sure that somebody going methodically through the GA criteria - as it is usually done - would find these and more problems. My concern is maintaining the usual (if informal) GA process. Smallbones 21:16, 12 November 2007 (UTC)
I hadn't really concerned myself much with the "factors" section of the page, but it seems reasonable enough. As it says in that section, gold's given price is more related to hoarding and dishoarding than other asset classes. I'll go ahead and change the interest rate section to be more general. As for the links, that's another area I don't have much to do with, and I'm sure there are some inappropriate links in there. I changed it from start because, according to wiki's quality scale, it seems clearly beyond the "start" designation. Who would be involved in a more formal review? Prestonp 21:44, 12 November 2007 (UTC)
I nominated this article under economics at Wikipedia:Good article nominations and changed the grade here to "B" Smallbones 02:53, 13 November 2007 (UTC)

[edit] New link for "Gold as an investment"

At Goldmau.com, we provide market analysis and facts and results to back it up as well. We also publish an electronic publication called the GoldInsider and monthly articles that are featured on Kitco.com. I'd like to add our link to the bottom as a page as an external link.

Maucapital 17:26, 6 September 2007 (UTC)

I'm afraid that is called spamming and is against policy. SGGH speak! 18:15, 6 September 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Cleaned up external links ...

Refactored many of disjoint external links to a single page which includes the current and historical charts. I may include the 30yr chart soon too.

InsideGold 17:46, 18 October 2007 (UTC)

I added the 30 year chart now as well.

(InsideGold 16:38, 19 October 2007 (UTC))

I added the currency conversion information and different units of measure to remove the need for the duplicate external link.

(InsideGold (talk) 19:25, 16 January 2008 (UTC))

[edit] Conspiracy Theories?

Would it be appropriate to add a "Conspiracy Theory" section to this page to reference the efforts of [GATA]?

(InsideGold 17:55, 18 October 2007 (UTC))

I think it would be a good addition because you can't really delve too far into the discussion without the topic of central bank selling coming up. The price of gold on the market today would be very different if it weren't for central bank selling, so they are THE major player on the world market. But they have been net sellers year after year, so they're engaging in unsustainable behavior and that leads to speculation as to why. Prestonp 18:03, 18 October 2007 (UTC)
Thanks. I made an initial addition. Please review and change as required. I tried to keep it short and let the linked page do the majority of the explaining. (InsideGold 18:29, 18 October 2007 (UTC))

[edit] Junior Mining Companies?

Should we start a section that talks about the potential gains/risks with Junior Gold Mining companies? Is this the best page for it?

(InsideGold 18:34, 19 October 2007 (UTC))

No, I think Methods of investing in gold is the correct page for that. Prestonp 05:00, 20 October 2007 (UTC)
Yeah ... agreed. I'll take a first stab at it and let me know what you think. Stay tuned. (InsideGold 13:04, 20 October 2007 (UTC))

[edit] Gold prices versus oil costs

I would have thought these days that there might be a significant connection between gold prices and oil costs. Or is that wrong? Is there some reason why the word "oil" has never been mentioned in connection with this topic --Geronimo20 00:08, 12 November 2007 (UTC)

Oh dear, weird article this. Surely peak oil is the underlying driver of current gold prices. Still no mention! Oh well, weird weird article this. Should it be nominated for deletion on the grounds that it doesn't address it's core issue? :) --Geronimo20 (talk) 04:40, 14 March 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Good article assessment

GA review – see WP:WIAGA for criteria

  1. Is it reasonably well written?
    A. Prose quality:
    B. MoS compliance:
  2. Is it factually accurate and verifiable?
    A. References to sources:
    B. Citation of reliable sources where necessary:
    C. No original research:
  3. Is it broad in its coverage?
    A. Major aspects:
    B. Focused:
  4. Is it neutral?
    Fair representation without bias:
  5. Is it stable?
    No edit wars, etc:
  6. Does it contain images to illustrate the topic?
    A. Images are copyright tagged, and non-free images have fair use rationales:
    B. Images are provided where possible and appropriate, with suitable captions:
  7. Overall:
    Pass or Fail:



1:

  • Small grammar issues. I’ve fixed what stood out.
  • Numerous MoS violations. Some examples:
  • Inadequate lead - per WP:LEAD, “The lead should be capable of standing alone as a concise overview of the article, establishing context, summarizing the most important points, explaining why the subject is interesting or notable, and briefly describing its notable controversies, if there are any.”
  • Use of weasel words, e.g. “Some investors consider…”, “Others point out…”, etc.

2:

  • Numerous additional citations are needed; I’ve tried to mark the ones that stand out. I suspect some of them to be WP:NOR.
  • Some references that are already there should be better labeled (i.e. references 8 and 11).
  • Article contains several factual inaccuracies (e.g. “Paper currencies pose [sic] a risk of being inflated” is a misleading statement. A true/better statement would be, “Fiat currencies posses a risk of being inflated.”) Another example is “…governments have been free to print as much money as they choose, without fear that their populations will come knocking on the central bank's door demanding to change their paper money back into gold.” This is not an appropriate or factual description of the consequences/results of the collapse of Bretton Woods system.
  • Number of suspected WP:NOR violations, e.g. “The above numbers show the falling influence of gold in today's monetary system.” The “Gold's value versus money supply” section needs substantial attention.

3:

  • The “Types of gold investor” section is only a link to another article and “Methods of investing in gold” contains only one sentence in addition to a link. These sections should contain enough prose to reasonably summarize the more detailed articles.
  • The addition of a section addressing the historical utilizion of gold as an investment and any pertinent reasons therefore would strengthen the article (after all, the article currently says, “Gold has a long history of being an inflation proof investment” – let’s hear about that history.)
  • There are issues with redundancy and disorganization which hurt the focus. Money supply and demand numbers are scattered throughout the article (e.g. the “factors” section has “demand” and “supply and demand” subsections, there are demand and supply numbers in the “fundamental analysis” section of “investment strategies” and there is a minimal “supply” section.) Try to combine these into an organized and succinct discussion.

4:

  • The article has an inconsistent viewpoint. It is, at times, too US-centric (e.g. the “Gold price” chart contains US farm wages and US government debt, but no “foreign” data). It is, at other times, international, as it addresses the central banks of several countries and, in ironic contrast to the US-centric parts, uses the Queen’s English (e.g. organisations). At other times, it is imprecise (e.g. CPI is mentioned in “factors influencing the gold price”, but it is not known what country’s CPI it is {although, one assumes U.S.) The article should be corrected to exhibit a country-neutral viewpoint (as much is possible given the global influence of the US dollar).
  • Some phrases border on WP:NPOV violations (e.g. saying gold is a “safe haven”; the article should let facts reflect the suitability of gold as an investment.)

6:

  • The images of the bowl, money as "firewood" and the dinar do not appear appropriate for the topic, which may be an appearance exacerbated by the lack of captions explicitly relating the images to gold as an investment. New captions may remedy this, although I suspect the bowl and dinar, in particular, don't belong.

General: Frankly, the article needs a fair amount of work. I'm happy to help if you need more examples of issues or other assistance. Ɛƚƈơƅƅơƚɑ talk 22:16, 17 November 2007 (UTC)

[edit]  :D

"Inflation 1923-24: A woman in Germany feeds her tiled stove with money. The money was worth less than firewood." I think it is hiper inflation. kızılsungur 19:17, 24 November 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Types of Gold Investors

First off, who cares? Wow, some people invest for one reason and others for another reason and still other's for a totally different reason. SO WHAT! I am trying to clean this article up and provide citations for everything and am largely the only person doing it. The less text there is to manage, the easier it is to provide citations for everything and the cleaner the article can be. Prestonp (talk) 15:31, 29 December 2007 (UTC)

I feel that the different types of gold invesor do fit in with an encyclopedia entry called gold as an investment. However perhaps there is room to tidy the article up, but i would definitely keep this section in some form. What we could do without are some of the implicit opinions e.g. "However, some asset allocators and investment advisors are again advocating it." and I would like the article to provide stronger evidence of gold's low correlation with other asset classes. Although (talk) 19:01, 29 December 2007 (UTC)

Well you've got an entire graph of gold versus the Dow Jones. WHich other classes where you thinking of? Prestonp (talk) 17:09, 30 December 2007 (UTC)
Hi Prestonp, thanks for your clean up work. I contributed the 'Low or negative real interest rates' paragraph of the 'Factors influencing the gold price' section. Regarding citations I guess my original and perhaps best source is http://www.zealllc.com/2001/realgold.htm this is part one of a nine part series. Part 7, which is the top search result when googling for 'real interest rates and gold' is here http://www.zealllc.com/2004/realgold7.htm , but I like part 1 the best. I'm ok with including this as a citation if no one objects.
I've added some citations now. I hope these are ok and comply with any/all wikipedia standards, if not please accept my apologies.
BTW I'd like to comment on other asset classes, apart from equities (e.g. dow jones) they include cash (cash deposits in some currency), bonds (e.g. treasury securities like 2 year notes), real estate, collectibles, commodities and precious metals. If the money supply (as shown by M3, shadow stats) is increased quickly this new money has previously and may again flow unevenly into the asset classes causing a succession of economic bubbles. In Austrian economics this is called malinvestment and if not properly constrained leads to a crack up boom. The citations I've given indicate that based on traditional valuation metrics (e.g. P/E ratios) bubbles have already occurred in equities (dot-com boom), real estate (subprime) and bonds. ICouldBeWrong (talk) 08 Feburary 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Fixing this page

Happy New Year everyone! Let's discuss and tackle each of the review points outlined above in numerical order ... starting with #1 the Manual of Style violations. What should the lead for this page be? Personally, I'd like to see some tangible evidence that gold is better than any other monetary vehicle such as foreign currencies, other precious metals or other commodities. Should something like that be the basis for this page? (InsideGold (talk) 03:06, 4 January 2008 (UTC))

Well, Gold has hit a high in all major currencies? Is that good enough a discussion or should there be something else? Prestonp (talk) 05:56, 6 January 2008 (UTC)
True, but is this a result of the US on the brink of a recession? We haven't seen gold take a run like this for any other major countries getting in trouble. If the USD is the major lynch-pin for gold, should that be our opening statement? InsideGold (talk) 17:26, 7 January 2008 (UTC)
Well sure, but right now I'm trying to make the article more concise and documented. It seems like opening with USD being the underpinning of gold is going to be hard to document properly. Prestonp (talk) 23:22, 7 January 2008 (UTC)

This seems the appropriate section to highlight this. A large amount of the gold.org links in the 'References' section have now changed due to a site upgrade at www.gold.org. Where possible, links have been redirected. If someone could message me then I will assist in locating the correct content within the website.Hdotnet (talk)11:54, 27 March 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Bulls versus bears

This article seems a little out of date now.

The price of gold has shot up and is now in a range above 850USD per ounce. It seems (although it is a prediction of course) that it is likely to stay above the 850 dollars an ounce.

Also i agree that oil should be mentioned as with the increase of the oil price, among with the weaker US dollar has contributed to the increase of gold which, I believe, is seen as a safe haven for many investors now.

Michael IFA (talk) 09:03, 4 January 2008 (UTC)

You can't say that gold will stay above any price. Hasn't it already been stated some of the factors that control the price of gold (political instability, forex rates, etc.)? Do we need to cite oil as being the factor (seems rather temporal)? That said, I do have some charts I've been playing with which show gold in other currencies ... I find it useful for seeing which countries are hedged against the USD or stand on their own merit. You can see the charts here: Metal by Currency (modified to suit of course) ... would they be useful? --InsideGold (talk) 17:51, 4 January 2008 (UTC)


We have to be careful of not giving OPINIONS about the price of gold or its relative merit. —Preceding unsigned comment added by Although (talk • contribs) 01:56, 10 January 2008 (UTC)

what is the effect of price detemination of gold on the jewellers and jewellery market??? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 117.199.193.57 (talk) 08:19, 18 March 2008 (UTC)