Image:Global Warming Predictions.png

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[edit] Description

A map of predicted global warming at the end of the 21st century accourding to the HADCM3 climate model with a business-as-usual emissions scenario (IS92a). This model has an average warming of 3.0°C
A map of predicted global warming at the end of the 21st century accourding to the HADCM3 climate model with a business-as-usual emissions scenario (IS92a). This model has an average warming of 3.0°C

Shows climate model predictions for global warming under the SRES A2 emissions scenario relative to global average temperatures in 2000. The A2 scenario is characterized by a politically and socially diverse world that exhibits sustained economic growth but does not address the inequities between rich and poor nations, and takes no special actions to combat global warming or environmental change issues. This world in 2100 is characterized by large population (15 billion), high total energy use, and moderate levels of fossil fuel dependency (mostly coal). The A2 scenario is the most well-studied of the SRES scenarios that assume no attempt to address global warming.

The IPCC predicts global temperature change of 1.4-5.8°C due to global warming from 1990-2100 [1]. As evidenced above (a range of 2.5°C in 2100), much of this uncertainty results from disagreement among climate models, though additional uncertainty comes from different emissions scenarios.

Temperature Increase 2000 to 2100 (°C)
Model Total Land Ocean
CCSR/NIES 4.7 7.0 3.8
CCCma 4.0 5.0 3.6
CSIRO 3.8 4.9 3.4
Hadley Centre 3.7 5.5 3.0
GFDL 3.3 4.2 3.0
MPI-M 3.0 4.6 2.4
NCAR PCM 2.3 3.1 2.0
NCAR CSM 2.2 2.7 2.0

[edit] Models

The model data used above was taken from the IPCC-DDC, and the models are as follows:

[edit] Copyright

This figure was created by Robert A. Rohde from public data and is incorporated into the Global Warming Art project.


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GNU head Permission is granted to copy, distribute and/or modify this document under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.2 only as published by the Free Software Foundation; with no Invariant Sections, no Front-Cover Texts, and no Back-Cover Texts. A copy of the license is included in the section entitled "Text of the GNU Free Documentation License."

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current06:54, 10 April 2006528×377 (25 KB)Pflatau (==Description== [[Image:Global Warming Predictions Map.jpg|thumb|right|250px|A map of predicted global warming at the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century accourding to the HADCM3 climate model with a business-as-usual emissions scenario (IS92a). This model)