Global Islamic insurgency theory

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Global Islamic Insurgency is a hypothesis formulated by David Kilcullen contending that various non-state Islamist groups are dedicated to political outcomes by way of terrorism and information operations, networked through informal social bonds with access to modern communication technologies and with the backing of certain states, certain Islamic charitable organizations and/or wealthy individuals; it is best described as an insurgency on a global scale, against the 'established order'. ^[1] In contrast, Adam Curtis has argued that, although there are individual Islamist groups throughout the world, there is no single coordinated global Islamist movement, but both US Neo-Conservatives and radical Islamists have supported the idea of one to further their own political goals.^[2]

1 Premise
2 Modus operandi
3 Nature of the theory
4 Key goals
5 Western strategic weaknesses and vulnerabilities
6 Combating the insurgency
7 Criticism
8 See also
9 References
10 External links

[edit] Premise

Advocates^[who?] for a cohesive, strong response to the perceived threat posed by such an insurgency claim that it seeks to reestablish the Islamic Caliphate, from Spain in the West to Indonesia in the East, and ultimately supremacy over the entire world.^{[citation needed]} It would be erroneous however to perceive that the insurgency is monolithic,^{[neutrality disputed]} as each group that constitutes a part of the insurgency often has a different support base, infused with different local politics, and referring to it as such actually serves the insurgency's end.^{[citation needed]} Very few groups have ever actually stated their desire for such an Islamic Caliphate; most are opposed to what they see as the West's involvement in the affairs of other nations, particularly support for Israel.^{[citation needed]}

[edit] Modus operandi

Islamist organisations which lack the resources and organisational skill of first world nations are not in a position to provoke direct military confrontation due to the power of stand-off strike, and as a result pursue a multi faceted informational operational strategy to impact upon the minds and morale of target populations, combined with the theatrics of visually spectacular terrorist attacks, in order to provoke political change.^{[citation needed]}

Australian defence analyst and academic, Dr. Carlo Kopp, in an article[1] on Islamofascism states that this is a movement that merges various totalitarian idioligies with Islamic fundamentalism, and highlighted nine points that these groups seek to exploit. He also confirms that terrorism is their principal military tool, and illustrates the problems that the West faces in confronting them - particularly clerics.^{[neutrality disputed]}

[edit] Nature of the theory

Global Islamic Insugency is not an actual organization but is a term used to describe the perception of a general ideological movement. Proponents of the theory argue that the Global Insurgency is fuelled by current and past political events, like the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict.^{[citation needed]}

Tony Blair, former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, has likened global Islamic insurgency to the patterns of Communism inspired insurgency and proxy warfare during the Cold War^{[citation needed]}.

Adam Gadahn, Al Qaeda's spokesman for the English speaking world, has rejected other systems of human society, saying "Islam is the only religion that is acceptable to God and came with a book: The Koran, which abrogates all previous revelations"^{[citation needed]} and described Islam as "the final revealed religion and law to replace and abrogate all other previous laws".^{[citation needed]}

Some^[who?] Islamists aspire to create an a transregional Caliphate, that would engulf all countries in the world where Islam is the major religion.^{[citation needed]} Some^[who?] others have advocated a mainly military programme of Caliphatic expansion.^{[citation needed]}

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said that Islam will be spread "to the tops of the highest mountains"^{[citation needed]} and "We have advised the Europeans that the Americans are far away, but you are neighbours to the nations of this region. We inform you that the nations are like an ocean that is welling-up and if the storm begins the dimensions will not stay limited to Palestine and you may get hurt".^{[citation needed]}

During the Jyllands-Posten Muhammad cartoons controversy in February 2006 around 450 Muslims attended a protest rally outside the Danish Embassy in London, bearing placards with the slogans "Europe is the cancer Islam is the answer", "Europe you will come crawling when the mujahadeen come roaring" and "butcher those who insult Islam". They shouted slogans like "UK you will pay! 7/7's on its way!" "Bomb bomb UK! Bomb bomb USA!" And "Democracy hypocrisy!" One man incited Muslims to wage Jihad on Denmark and to "take their wives and women as war booty". Four of the protesters were found guilty of attempting to incite murder and terrorism, and were jailed for between four to six years each.^[3]

According to global Islamic insurgency theory the short term goals of Islamists are to create the schismatic political and economic conditions necessary for pro-Caliphate popular revolt.^{[citation needed]} Some^[who?] have suggested that uprisings could take place in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq (although the presence of oil in Iraq may motive international support for a stable government).^{[citation needed]} Some^[who?] have argued that Pakistan may be more vulnerable due to higher levels of urbanisation.

Al Qaeda's American spokesman Adam Gadahn said: "The statement of faith is not however an empty phrase without meaning. But rather it carries with it conditions and obligations, among the most important of these conditions, without which the testimony of faith is null and void, is that we disbelieve in and reject every false God. Whether it be a rock, a human being or a system of government with its polytheistic constitution, courts and laws" and went on to say; "you don't set up any other God alongside Allah" and went on to quote the Koran saying; "the end of the unbelievers is fire".^{[citation needed]}

Some^[who?] people have suggested that a programme of Islamist territorial expansion could begin from Iran due to its theocratic government, worsening relations with the United States and US allegations of a secret nuclear weapons programme.^{[citation needed]}

One of Al Qaeda's demands is not only the recognition of an Al Qaeda state throughout the Muslim world, but also the return of former Muslim ruled territories such as India, Spain, Portugal, the Balkans, Southern Russia, Cyprus, Sicily, Sardinia, Corsica, South-West France and the city of Marseilles.^{[citation needed]}

[edit] Key goals

It is difficult to define exactly what goals the perceived movement of Global Islamic Insurgency are the most common within the movement's own general consensus. However the organisation Al Qaeda is often seen as being at the zenith of the movement's international profile, because of the amount of airtime given to frequent Al Qaeda media statements since the September 11, 2001 attacks and also because it is also often seen as being the catalyst for the chain of events concerning the current so-called war on terror, which receives high media coverage in both Western and Muslim countries.

Therefore the closest approximation to any solid set of core demands levied against the West from within this religious movement at a global level, could be seen within reason to be the demands of Al Qaeda. The last set of demands levied by Al Qaeda, offering a so-called truce to the United States and her western allies were posted on a website in early 2007 and read out by the Al Qaeda spokesman and US citizen Adam Gadahn, who is currently wanted in the United States for treason.

This is the list of demands issued by Mr. Adam Gadahn on behalf of Al Qaeda, addressed directly to U.S. President George W. Bush.

Demand 1. "Pull back all your soldiers, diplomats, advisers, spies and military attaches from Muslim lands from Afghanistan to Zanzibar. - Should so much as one American soldier or spy remain on Muslim soil, it shall be considered as sufficient justification for us to continue our 'defensive' Jihad against your nation and people".

Demand 2. "End all support; military, economic, political, moral and 'otherwise' to the state of Israel and ban your citizens, Zionist Jews, Zionist Christians and the rest from traveling to occupied Palestine or settling there".

Demand 3. "Cease all interference in the religion, society, politics and governance of the Muslim right to establish the Islamic Sharia state, which shall unite the Muslims of the Earth".

Demand 4. "Put an end to all interference in the educational curricular and information media of the Islamic world and impose a blanket ban on all broadcasts to our region".

Demand 5. "Free all Muslim captives in your prisons, detention facilities and concentration camps, regardless of whether they have been recipients of what you call a fair trial or not".

Ultimately it may seem to many impartial observers, both Muslim and non-Muslim that life under the type of Wahhabi Caliphate proposed by the likes of Adam Gadahn, would be very different from most of the world's established societies, however there are certain key definitions that could be seen as marking it out as a distinct social order:

Firstly. It is widely believed that when examining the history of current or post current regimes such as the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and the current Taliban styled regimes in the tribal areas of northern Pakistan. Many examples may arise that may indicate that such regimes often treat women with disdain and that women in these societies are often perceived as being intellectually inferior, naturally inclined to commit sin and are nearly always to blame in cases of male on female rape. Indeed one of the most striking features of many such societies is that male witness testimony in a court of law is considered to be at least twice as valuable and reliable than female witness testimony, as a general rule. In fact the principle extends beyond regimes perceived to be extreme, like the Taliban and form part of the normal judicial process in many internationally recognised states, that are considered to be acceptable enough to do business with by the international community. Such counties includes major world states such as: Malaysia, Saudi Arabia and Iran, although in 2007 that precept was significantly altered in regards to the crime of rape in Pakistan. Al Qaeda was the main ally of the Taliban state in Afghanistan when they were in power before 2001 and also where they have regained control today. Therefore it is likely that such a Caliphate would have a similar attitude towards women today.

Secondly, according to many interpretations of the Sharia (Islamic law), non-Muslim citizens are referred to as Dhimmis a term that it sometimes thought to mean second class citizen. Under the 12th century Fatimid Caliphate of Egypt for example, Dhimmis were compelled to pay a special tax called the Jizya, were restricted by law in their legal rights to build and maintain place of non-Muslim worship and were sometimes subject to curfews aimed at non-Muslims. However Dhimmis did at least have a protected legal status on the grounds that they were 'people of the book', meaning that they believed in a religion that like Islam had the same abrahamic roots and were therefore usually either Christians or Jews. However according to Al Qaeda's doctrine there seems to be little distinction between Jews and Christians and other non-Muslims. For example in Mr. Gadahn's address to U.S. President George W. Bush]] he refers to Judaism as; "an anthropomorphic deist and tribal religion, concocted by the Priests and Rabbis of Israel" and calls Christianity a pagan trinistrianism introduced into the religion of the messiah by the Church Fathers and imposed by the force of the Roman State", (Roman Empire). Mr. Gadahn goes on to refer to Christianity as: "That hollow shell of a religion who's followers cling on to an empty faith and the false conviction of their inevitable salvation, regardless of what they do, or do not believe as long as they accept the core tenates and doctrines of polyne Christianity".

And thirdly. Such a Caliphate would probably be an exclusive Islamic monopoly and would not counternance any encroachments against its exclusivity by any other religious denomination. On interfaith dialogue Mr. Adam Gadahn]said; "The concept of interfaith dialogue sometimes called the dialogue of Abrahamic faiths is a modern deception" and referred the concept of democracy, saying: "God recognises no separation between religion and state" and described democracy as; "an atheistic concept". He closed his analysis on democracy by issuing a threat to the West, saying; "either repent in your misguided ways and enter into the light of 'truth', or keep your 'poison' to your selves and suffer the consequences in this world and the next".

Such feelings are often resonated in lectures and debates held within and from some Islamic circles such as the organisations Al-Muhajiroun and Al Ghurabaa. The most notable of such debates to date occurred at Trinity College Dublin in October 2006 and featured various Wahhabi Muslim British-Asian scholars such as Anjem Choudry, Sulayman Ibazeen, Omar Brooks and Mohammed Shamsuddin. The Wahhabi scolars were at the debate to oppose the motion that read: 'This house believes that Islamist violence can never be justified'. During that debate Sulayman Ibazeen was recorded as saying: "We want to get away from this idea that Islam is a religion of peace." And peppered his argument with factual quotes from Koran like: "Fight the unbelievers wherever you find them". Mohammed Shamsuddin was subsequently condemned by Islamic scholars in opposition to him at the debate, who claimed that he had deliberately taken quotes from the Koran out of context. Omar Brooks went further and was recorded as saying: "We drink to the blood of the enemy, we can face them anytime and anywhere; that is Islam and that's Jihad". And went further by saying: "Anyone who wants to stand in the face of the Muslims; he will face the banner of Jihad!" And quoted the prophet Mohammed as saying; "I come to slaughter all of you" and "I laugh when I kill". In response a moderate Muslim scholar at the debate described radical Islam as "a mental illness".

[edit] Western strategic weaknesses and vulnerabilities

Western societies have large and growing immigrant populations from the Muslim world, many housing Islamic movements that preach hatred of Western society and the host country's cultural norms. In the world of Fourth Generation Warfare, that constitutes a potential urban terrorism concern, as Islamic terrorist attacks have successfully been executed in the West, most recently in Madrid and London.

These combination of events suggest that West has, in effect, imported a source of disorder - one that holds loyalty to a religion (Islam) above loyalty to its adopted country. This leaves some people in the West with concerns about any large demographic and cultural shift, so long as perceived inabilities on the part of Muslim immigrants to assimilate remain unresolved.

[edit] Combating the insurgency

Lt Col David Kilcullen, Ph.D, advocates a strategy of disaggregation - a "dismantling" of the links at every level between Islamist organisations to prevent the spread of ideas, expertise and funds, between the various groups, essentially isolating each group from the larger whole, which allows for a local government to address their concerns at a political level.

William S. Lind argues that as armed groups independent of state control proliferate, the state is consequently losing its monopoly on the use of force. What this means is that State on State conflict will no longer be the primary shape that conflict will take in the future.

Conflict between states and non-state actors (Fourth Generation Warfare) will become dominant.

In such a world Lind argues, the West should pursue a strategy of isolating itself from disorder, ensuring acculturation of immigrants to the local culture and abolishing any State policy of multiculturalism, because by importing immigrants who refuse to assimilate, the nation is potentially importing a source of disorder in an age when loyalties to ideas will triumph over loyalty to the state. [2]

[edit] Criticism

Adam Curtis argues in his award winning documentary series The Power of Nightmares that there is no "global Islamic insurgency", and that attempts to convince the world otherwise emanate from two camps - the US Neoconservative movement, and radical Islamists, particularly those who fought in the Soviet War in Afghanistan, with both sides using the illusion of a global, coordinated, movement to further their own political goals.