Talk:Foresight Exchange

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[edit] Any interest in getting this started?

The Foresight Exchange (or "FX") has quite a bit of history and theory that would be interesting to the general audience. I think I'll work on sprucing this article up. But just off the top of my head, here's some things that could be discussed.

• General history of Foresight Exchange and its predecessor, Idea Futures. Some claims and events might be particularly noteworthy (eg, a somewhat relevant claim on large scale US terrorism was trading in the 40% range just prior to the September 11, 2001 attacks in the US which is far out of whack with the claim, widely asserted at the time, that the attacks were "unthinkable").

• Media references. The Foresight Exchange has been mentioned in the media occasionally (even by the New York Times). This will demonstrate notability as well.

• Theory behind the Foresight Exchange and the mechanics of trading. What are "claims"? How do you trade? Etc.

• Criticism of the Foresight Exchange.

• Bits of culture and phenomena like the "50% effect". Why is Robin Hanson so popular?

I probably will get started on this and then call in some people from the FX mailing. BTW, I have user id #73 in the market. -- KarlHallowell 17:55, 14 February 2007 (UTC)

I always remember the claim on the resignation of Boris Yeltsin (it was to close at the end of the year, so when he announced his resignation on that very day, some people who had kept their old bets made wild (in-game) gains. I don't know if it is encyclopedic enough, though. --Error 22:57, 29 June 2007 (UTC)