Talk:Fermi paradox

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[edit] "They do not exist because...humanity is the first in the universe/...they do not exist yet

This keeps getting deleted. I put in my version yesterday, and it was deleted despite the fact that I clearly marked it as a stub. I couldn't cite anything because I was in a hurry and did not feel like searching for any citations. Since, I think, the purpose of this article is to be a full list of potential explanations of the Fermi paradox, as well as defining and describing the paradox itself, this cannot be ignored. Lockesdonkey 13:03, 20 June 2006 (UTC)

At least a second deletion along these lines has also occurred. (192.220.139.198) 24 September 2006
It is not impossible that ET edit wiki. There is considerable evidence that ET wants us to think they exist, but not be certain ET exist. Some ET may be uncomfortable with us thinking that there are no ET. Some humans want us to keep an open mind about the existance of ET.Ccpoodle (talk) 14:15, 7 January 2008 (UTC)
It's not the purpose of the article to include all potential explanations, because many potential explanations defy logic and/or science. The "humanity is the first", although obviously not impossible, isn't logical (and becomes stupefyingly illogical if one words it as "first in the universe" rather than "first in the galaxy"). At most, it might be worth a parenthetical aside in the "Rare Earth hypothesis" section (e.g. "Intelligent life has not arisen (or has not arisen yet) on other planets due to blah blah"). Even if you had a citation for this, I doubt it would be worth any more mention than that. KarlBunker 13:56, 20 June 2006 (UTC)
You can't just handwave this possibility away with a quip. Life is extremely complex, and how do you know that it is not rare for this very reason? A soup full of potential amino acids along with other organic compounds is far, far more simple than a cyanobacteria, with both photosynthetic pathways, DNA, RNA, and protein synthesis, and the ability to build up many sugars, proteins, amino acids, fats, and possibly other membrane compounds or enzymes, often from scratch or carbon dioxide, with a few of the building materials possibly sometimes coming from other organisms. Most people on Earth do not know of any other planets upon which life has independantly arisen besides Earth, and the ultimate difficulty of abiogenesis is not necessesarily a completely known factor. First in the universe, well probably not, but first in the galaxy? This is at least one way to possibly explain the Fermi paradox and it is not genuinely intellectually honest to not include this possibility unless these factors are far more known and understood than they generally are. (192.220.139.198) 24 September 2006
I actually had thought of adding it myself to the "Do not exist and never did" section. To say we are the first is just another way of saying we are alone. In Rare Earth and elsewhere you do see it noted that the Universe's first stars would likely not have planets, generally as a matter of metallicity (the first stars would not have had enough iron etc. for planet formation). Marskell 16:22, 20 June 2006 (UTC)
This is only a special case of the "too far apart in time" concept. Doesn't matter if they come before and after, or just after, it is all just temporal displacement, and therefore is covered in the article already, otherwise we had better add "They do not exist because...humanity is the last in the universe/...they all died out already." as well - Vedexent (talk • contribs) - 19:44, 24 September 2006 (UTC)

I also think that this explanation is most likely to be the correct one. There is no reason to believe that the conditions in the galaxy is constant over time, indeed we know for certain that metallicity will increase over time. Moreover, observe that the age of planet earth (3-4 billion years) is in the same order of magnitude as the age of the universe (15-20 billion years). I wouldn't say we are the first, but we are among the first and this situation may change in future, since there is no reason to believe that once the conditions were appropriate for life to develop that it only happened on earth. Basically, if we weren't among the first ones we wouldn't wonder why we haven't met other civilisations.

To me it seems that the hypothesis is sufficently different from the rare earth or too far apart in time hypothesis. Hence, I will add it, unless somebody gives a more substantial reason why it shouldn't than just stating "it is illogical" as Karl Bunker did above. --Thorsten 20:44, 26 March 2007 (UTC)

You've said that you find this theory the most likely, but I don't see where you've explained how it differs from "too far apart in time." You seem to be saying that because it's your favorite variation on "too far apart in time", it ought to get more attention.
In any case, note that content added to Wikipedia is supposed to be based on WP:Reliable sources, not on "Here's my favorite theory." RedSpruce 01:38, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

It's not so much that it should get more attention, it is rather that it should be mentioned at all. As far as reliable sources go, it seems that the whole article is rather speculative and while it shouldn't cover "every possible" explanation - I do find it rather surprising that the one which I consider as the correct one is omitted. I have been looking at SETI pages and other places do find a reference but haven't found it anywhere but here. However, I agree that wikipedia shouldn't be the place to introduce new speculations. --Thorsten 21:17, 27 March 2007 (UTC)

  • It should be noted that Jehovah's Witnesses hold this cosmological view to some extent with some believing that after the restoration of Earth to Paradisaic conditions humanity would then spread out into the Universe to reside on habitable planet throughout the rest of the universe. —Preceding unsigned comment added by Sochwa (talk • contribs) 03:17, 5 November 2007 (UTC)


[edit] Fermi principle

The belief that the lack of evidence conclusively demonstrates the non-existence of extraterrestrial civilizations is known as the Fermi principle.
Conclusively is unappropriate and unscientific. All conclusions are tentative and we don't have all possible evidence on any subject. Fermi would not have said that, unless he was drunk at the time.Ccpoodle (talk) 14:34, 7 January 2008 (UTC)

I'm having trouble finding this. Anyone know how it got this name? Is this something Fermi agreed with? 192.75.48.150 16:39, 25 July 2006 (UTC)

I also dispute this, without a source I suggest mention of 'the Fermi principle' be removed. As far as I know Fermi had nothing to do with stating that the lack of evidence of anything conclusively demonstrates anything. A logical fallacy such as that seems to me to be foreign to any scientist or mathematician, and I can find no evidence to support its existence, therefore conclusively proving the non-existence of the Fermi principle. (forgive the jest) User:Pedant 21:42, 17 August 2006 (UTC)
The anon already removed it. Marskell 22:19, 17 August 2006 (UTC)


[edit] N~L?

The idea that N approximately equals L, that the number of civilizations in the Milky Way right now approximately equals the ratio of the average lifespan of a civilization to the entire timespan of life/civilization being possible in the Milky Way. FriendlyRiverOtter (talk) 04:44, 6 February 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Too young?

Er, isn't the universe just too young to have an abundance of life?

According to various Wikipedia articles, the universe is 13.7 billion years old, while our own solar system is 4.6 billion years old: thus, following on from the mediocrity principle and assuming an average time period of about four and a half billion years from the birth of a planetary system to the evolution of a species capable of producing radio waves, we limit the actual amount of time involved to the last nine billion or so years.

Now, Big Bang nucleosynthesis had not actually produced enough elements to allow for Earth-like life in the first place, so the very first 4.x billion year old planetary systems wouldn't have produced life anyway. We would have to wait for those first stars to perform stellar and supernova nucleosynthesis. If we jump ahead another "generation", we are now reduced to only about the life time of our own solar system, ie: if there is going to be lots of life in the universe, then it would only be getting off the ground now, right? 70.20.149.174 (talk) 03:36, 15 March 2008 (UTC)

I think this goes beyond the scope of this talk page, but briefly: that argument is based on a lot pre-suppositions. Even if we assume everything you state as a given, it still presupposes the same evolutionary rate everywhere, but in the 'generational' scheme of things, a billion or two years head start for some localities, shouldn't be underestimated. Hope that makes sense. El_C 03:44, 15 March 2008 (UTC)
The big stars that die as supernova and spew their elements into space don't live very long. So scientist think there were plenty of elements for life and planets just a few billion years after the big bang. So it's perhaps a correction to the numbers of the Drake equation, but not nearly enough to explain the Fermi Paradox. There is at least some experimental data on this - when stars with planets are found, their age can be estimated, and so far the ones that we have found are both older and younger than the sun. Of course these are bigger gas planets, not small rocky ones, but the current thinking is that the gas planets were created around rocky cores. So there were plenty of elements at least a billion years before the sun was born, which is plenty to support the paradox, given that spread across the galaxy takes (we think) much less than this. LouScheffer (talk) 13:34, 15 March 2008 (UTC)
It takes approximately 2 billion years for a Red Giant to live and die. So, 4 billion years after the Big Bang, we would have had two "generations" of stars, and presumably enough heavier elements for Earth-like planets and life. FriendlyRiverOtter (talk) 18:25, 5 April 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Kinda arguments

Maybe they got the point and chose not to procreate further? Or maybe they've totally dumbed down? Abdullais4u (talk) 10:10, 24 March 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Definition of life?

Life is something that reproduces with pretty good fidelity, so that an evolutionary process takes place. FriendlyRiverOtter (talk) 19:24, 5 April 2008 (UTC)

[edit] UV light hitting open water, and thus a lifeless planet s l o w l y producing oxygen, which then prevents life from developing (oxygen strong reactant)

Origins: Fourteen Billion Years of Cosmic Evolution, Neil deGrasse Tyson and Donald Goldsmith, W.W. Norton & Co.: New York, London, 2004, page 237:

“What made Earth’s atmosphere relatively rich in oxygen? Much of it came from tiny organisms floating in the seas, which released oxygen as part of their photosynthesis. Some oxygen would have appeared even in the absence of life, as UV from sunlight broke apart some of the H2O molecules at the ocean surfaces, releasing hydrogen and oxygen atoms into the air. Wherever a planet exposes significant amounts of liquid water to starlight, that planet’s atmosphere should likewise gain oxygen, slowly but surely, over hundreds of millions or billions of years. There too, atmospheric oxygen would prevent life from originating by combining with all possible nutrients that could sustain life. Oxygen kills! Not what we usually say about this eighth element on the periodic table, but for life throughout the cosmos, this verdict appears accurate: Life must begin early in a planet’s history, or else the appearance of oxygen in its atmosphere will put the kibosh on life forever.”

—Preceding unsigned comment added by FriendlyRiverOtter (talk • contribs) 19:20, 5 April 2008 (UTC)

[edit] They are deliberately keeping quiet

I tried to insert this possibility but it got removed by Murgh... I am a newbie at this so please feel free to enlighten me. Was it removed because it wasnt up to wp standards or just because you disagree with the idea?

I think that at least part of the purpose of the Fermi paradox page is to discuss the possible reasons for the apparent paradox. So we must at least, I think, mention the possibility that they are actually there, but don't intend to broadcast that fact since they feel it is dangerous to do so. I am not saying that this is indeed the case... just that it is a possible reason for the silence.

Earlier in the article the possibility is mentioned that there are not many around since others come and annihilate them. If we mention that as a possibility, how can we then deny the corollary that there may be some around that are laying low? —Preceding unsigned comment added by WalrusLike (talk • contribs) 03:10, 2 May 2008 (UTC)

This is now in the article, so i fact tagged it. An anon removed the tag. Either remove the O.R. sentence, or find a cite. Don't just remove tags to keep an FA looking pretty!Yobmod (talk) 18:24, 26 May 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Galactus ate them

I only looked at this page because of it's mention in Ultimate Nightmare Why is there no mention of the possibility that somethings killing them?Zelphi (talk) 20:21, 13 May 2008 (UTC)

This is covered in detail in the article, with references. LouScheffer (talk) 19:04, 26 May 2008 (UTC)

[edit] They are deliberately keeping quiet

This is already covered in 'They choose not to communicate'. That references the section that perhaps civilizations destroy others, which in turn references both popular literature and science article (of which Brin's 'The Great Silence' is perhaps best known.).

Also, the discussion of whether the Earth should be keeping quiet, or at least not doing active SETI, is an interesting one but does not belong here. LouScheffer (talk) 19:04, 26 May 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Reference no. 36

The citation at [36] is broken; please correct/replace 129.31.70.214 (talk) 21:47, 26 May 2008 (UTC)

It took only about 30 seconds to find this article with Google, and replace the link. You might consider contributing by fixing dead links, it's a lot faster than waiting for someone else to do it, and improves the article for everyone else. LouScheffer (talk) 22:52, 26 May 2008 (UTC)