User:Fableheroesguild/2006 Atlantic hurricane predictions

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This page is for more in-depth predictions. If you just want to add or view less detailed predictions (like strongest storm name) go to the betting pools instead. If you add a prediction please add your forecast to the table at the top of the article

Please note: This page is entirely unofficial, forecast with little or no use of true scientific data or trends going into it. It is just a fun collection of editor predictions.

Contents

[edit] Summary of predictions

This will judge the accuracy of these predictions, if they are reasonably coherent, against those from the CSU and NOAA. The lowest prediction in each category is in italics, the highest in bold.

Forecaster Tropical Storms Hurricanes Major hurricanes Category 5 hurricanes
ACTUAL season 9 5 2 0
CSU 17 9 5 0
NOAA 13-16 8-10 4-6 -
Freiberg 24 17 7 2
Fableheroesguild 20 12 4 1
Cuivienen 17 11 5 1
Doktorb 16 8+ 2+ -
Bloing 21 14 7 1
SargeAbernathy 17 9 6 1
24.83.117.65 26 14 6 2
Bsd987 9 4 1 0
Tcatron565 28 20 13 3
Hurricane Eric 19 6+ 6 1+
Jamie C 29 17 9 4
Pobbie Rarr 19 12 7 2
Storm05 40 29 6 0
HurricaneCraze32 30 19 11 4
Weatherman90 21 14 9 2
Omni ND 17+ 13+ 9+ 3+
ColdRedRain 19 14 4 0
TimL 11 6 3 1
Cyclone1 18 13 6 2
RoswellAtup 19 12 7 2
HurricaneRo 21 14 7+ 2 or 3
Runningonbrains 20 12 6 2
winter123 21 11 4 1

I have interpreted the current predictions as best I can, but several of the predictions are ambiguous on these 4 distinctions, if an existing forecast is clarified, please update the table accordingly.--Nilfanion 23:16, 25 April 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Comments

I saw this kind of topic on another forum, made January 14th, 2005, and now people are going back to that topic to see how their predictions fared. Some were dead on (Katrina, Rita), others were way off (Lee, Franklin). I thought it would be fun to do this now, and look back on it when the big ones come.

Names: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, William.

-- RattleMan 01:43, 2 November 2005 (UTC)

Comment about the detailed predictions Wow, you guys are really... detailed :-P. Those predictions makes it sound as if they were a real, facutal article! -Tcwd 03:30, 3 January 2006 (UTC)

to people who made those predictions above, congratulations-- you guys each wasted at least 10 minutes of your time writing useless crap like that which will not even be fully true. heh, face it, you guys all have no life. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 67.70.97.153 (talk • contribs)

Please sign in by typing four tides otherwise how can anyone know whow wrote that comment. Storm05 15:08, 1 March 2006 (UTC)
And you just spent ten or twenty minutes reading it. Congratulations! Weatherman90 16:40, 11 March 2006 (UTC)
It's actually a lot of fun making predictions.Fableheroesguild 00:46, 16 March 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Reorganisation

The betting pools page was getting overloaded, so I've moved the in-depth predictionsto this page. --Nilfanion 18:33, 25 April 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Freiberg's predictions

Predictions for peak intensity of storms:

  • Cat 5: Kirk, Micheal
  • Cat 4: Rafael, Leslie, Ernesto
  • Cat 3: Gamma, Alpha
  • Cat 2: Chris, Debby, Oscar, Leslie, Isaac
  • Cat 1: Gordon, Helene, William, Tony, Patty, Alberto
  • Tropical storms: Beryl, Florence, Joyce, Nadine, Sandy, Valerie, Beta

--Freiberg 22:43, 3 November 2005 (UTC)

[edit] Fableheroesguild's predictions

Prediction for peak intensity:

  • Cat. 5: Kirk
  • Cat. 4: Alberto,Issac
  • Cat 3: Florence, Michael
  • Cat 2: Debby, Gordon, William
  • Cat 1: Chris, Helene, Joyce, Nadine, Rafael,
  • Tropical Storm: Beryl, Ernesto, Leslie (Another dud like Lee), Oscar, Patty, Sandy, Tony
  • Retired:Kirk, Issac, and Gordon.

Landfall:

  • Cat 5: Kirk (The Carolinas;Though, I'm starting to think it will graze the U.S. more and more.)
  • Cat 4: Albero (Texas),Issac (Florida)
  • Cat 3: N/A
  • Cat 2: Gordon (Hispaniola and Florida) and Michael (Gulf Coast)
  • Cat 1: Chris (Gulf Coast), Debby (Mexico/Texas border), Nadine (Yucatan, Mainland Mexico)
  • Tropical Storm: Ernesto (Belize)

(Remember, i'm not Nostradamus, so i'll probably be worng.) Fableheroesguild 17:26, 5 November 2005 (UTC)

[edit] Cuivienen's predictions

Peaks

  • Cat 5: Helene (170 mph, 904 mbar)
  • Cat 4: Chris, Florence, Kirk
  • Cat 3: Leslie
  • Cat 2: Isaac, Gordon, Ernesto
  • Cat 1: Alberto, Joyce, Michael
  • TS: Beryl, Debby, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael

Strongest Landfalls

  • Cat 5: Helene (Dominican Republic)
  • Cat 4: Florence (Puerto Rico), Kirk (North Carolina)
  • Cat 3: None
  • Cat 2: Chris (Yucatan), Ernesto (Nicaragua)
  • Cat 1: Isaac (Haiti)
  • TS: Debby (Mexico), Patty (South Carolina)

Retired

  • Florence (By request of the US [Puerto Rico] and the Dominican Republic)
  • Helene (By request of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Bahamas and the US)
  • Kirk (By request of the US)
  • Gordon (As a result of the Hurricane Gordon of 1994)

-- Cuivienen 16:00, 23 November 2005 (UTC)

Some updates:

Hurricane Kirk will cause ~$11 billion in damages, Hurricane Helene will cause ~$7 billion and Hurricane Florence wll cause ~$6 billion. Chris will cause around $1 billion in damages but not be retired. Most storms will form in the early season, with both Alberto and Beryl as pre-season storms. Chris will be the strongest storm to form in June, but will become so far out in the Atlantic and weaken dramatically before reaching the Windward Islands. Florence will form in early July and make landfall in mid-July. Helene will beat Emily as the strongest storm before August and will hit the Dominican Republic in mid-to-late July. Kirk will form in early August and make landfall in mid-August. After two storms in May, three in June, five in July and three in the first half of August, activity will drop off, with no storms in the rest of August and only Oscar and Patty forming in September. Rafael will form in late October and be the last storm of the season. —Cuiviénen, Friday, 28 April 2006 @ 18:10 UTC

User:Cuivienen/2006season

[edit] Doktorb's predictions

  • Alberto - mid-Atlantic 'fishspinner' [In reality - Tropical Storm with max speeds 70mph. Let's hope I'm more accurate with Beryl!!]
  • Beryl - Cat 3 early season worrier [ I'm doing well eh? A tropical storm again but I suppose "early season" was kind of accurate. Could I be closer with Chris?]
  • Chris - Cat 1/2 cloud-chaser [It did chase clouds but barely maintained tropical storm status. So, on I go to Debby....]
  • Debby - barely noticed tropical storm [Well, closer this time! She still blows around the mid-Atlantic but didn't cause Cape Verde too much hassle. Feel a bit better now]
  • Ernesto - whispers up against the east coast [Er..."whisper" is not accurate at all, alas. He remained a hurricane in the caribbean and struck Florida, and North Carolina. I got the east coast bit right...]
  • Florence - Cat 2/3 Florida bully [Cat 1 at most, battererd the islands and then scooted off away from Newfoundland. So wrong on all accounts. ]
  • Gordon - Cat 2/3 Gulf stream boxer [Did make Cat3 but not really sure what I meant by "Gulf Stream" or "boxer" for that matter]
  • Helene - worries the Canaries/Africa with unusal strength and direction [Made it to Category3 but as I was so vague, and inaccurate, this was another not-so-right one]
  • Isaac - comes, goes, kills a few fish en route [Was never going to win with this vague line, was I? Hurricane which could have done something to Newfoundland....but didn't. Next...]
  • Joyce - bamn - a very late but destructive Cat 1/2 Mexico/southern states
  • Kirk - follow up punch, Cat 1/2 destroyer scares the States again
  • Leslie - flurry of clouds out in the ocean
  • Michael - wakes up the Caribbean with Cat 4/5
  • Nadine - thumps an unexpected Cat 1/2 across the Panhandle
  • Oscar - tropical storm
  • Patty - tropical storm, out in the nowheres
  • Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, William - going to venture that 2006 ends on "P", my surname letter. Possibly not long to find out... doktorb 18:26, 4 December 2005 (UTC)

[edit] Bloing's predictions

Cat 5- uhm...Patty? Cat 4's- Valerie, Leslie, and Debby. Cat 3s- Joyce, Ernesto (Fishspinner), Helene Cat 2's- Kirk, Beryl Cat 1s- Chris, Oscar (Like Ophelia), Florence, Michael T.S- Nadine, Alberto, Rafael, Sandy, William << (God, I hope) Duds: Isaac, Tony

I'm just using the stinking list. Man I'm so lazy. Bloing

[edit] RoswellAtup's predictions

As for me.... there will be no category 5s but it will have at least 6 category 4s.... overthrowing the 1999 record of 5.... this will be Beryl, Florence, Gordon, Joyce, Leslie, Oscar... All except Gordon will be Cape-Verde types... Gordon will be born in the mid-caribbean sea... [RoswellAtup]

[edit] SargeAbernathy's predictions

  • Major 'Canes: Debby, Issac, Joyce, Leslie, Michael, Nadine
  • Hits: Debby, Issac, Joyce, Michael
  • Retires: Debby, Michael, Perhaps one minor Cane as well. SargeAbernathy 21:09, 7 December 2005 (UTC)

Little more info, now that we are at the start of the season: I believe that there will be a total of 17 storms. 9 of them will be hurricanes, with a 10th one people will be arguing about until its report comes out. I believe 3 of these storms will be retired. 6 of the storms will reach cat 3 or higher. SargeAbernathy 17:50, 2 June 2006 (UTC)

Since most of this is going of psychic instinct, I'm getting "one cat 5 storm" as well. It's not going to hit as a cat 5 storm though. They rarely ever do anyway. I think this storm will be Issac. SargeAbernathy 17:52, 2 June 2006 (UTC)


I noticed We have very similiar preidctions for the strong hurricanes.. go to mine --HurricaneRo 21:51, 3 June 2006 (UTC)

[edit] 24.83.117.65's predictions

  • Alberto - An early January storm that formed in December as a TD. Fishspinner. Cat 1. (85mph/985mb)
  • Beryl - A strong TS that hits near the New Orleans area. (70mph/994mb)
  • Chris - Moderate TS, Fishspinner. (50mph/995mb)
  • Debby - A borderline of Cat 1/2 that hits Houston. Retired. (95 mph/973mb)
  • Ernesto - Weak TS. Landfall in Mexico. (35mph/1005mb)
  • Florence - Cat 3 hurricane. Landfall in Panhandle, second landfall in North Carolina. Minor Damage (120 mph/950mb)
  • Gordon - Fishspinner. Borderline TS/Cat1 (70mph/997mb)
  • Helene - Fishspinner. Cat 4. (150 mph/919mb)
  • Isaac - Cat 5, Makes a couple landfalls in Central America. Final landfall in Mexico. Retired. (175 mph/902 mb)
  • Joyce - Moderate TS. Formed from a extratopical low. Landfall in Senegal. (55 mph/982 mb)
  • Kirk - Cat 3. Hits Halifax and St. John's. Retired (125mph/940mb)
  • Leslie - Weak TS, Fishspinner. (35mph/1003mb)
  • Michael - Moderate Cat 1. Carribean Fishspinner. Dissipated due to high windshear. (80 mph/991mb)
  • Nadine - Cat 2 Fishspinner
  • Oscar - Strong TS. Landfall in New York. (70mph/980mb)
  • Patty - Cat 4 fishspinner. Clings on borderline Cat2/3 at 50N. (145mph/930mb)
  • Rafael - Weak TS. Quick Mexico storm. (40 mph/999mb)
  • Sandy - 1 week gap. Moderate TS. Hits almost the same spot as Rafael (50mph/990mb)
  • Tony - Fishspinner. Cat 1 (75mph/980mb)
  • Valerie - Fishspinner. Cat 2 (100mph/973mb)
  • William - Cat 5. Takes the same path as Rita. (175mph/884mb) Retired
  • Alpha - Fishspinner TS. (60mph/993mb)
  • Beta - Weak Cat 2. Goes into Mediterranean Sea. Landfall in Itlay. (105mph/976mb)
  • Gamma - Fishspinner TS. (35mph/1010mb)
  • Delta - Moderate Cat 1. Landfall in Florida. (85mph/979mb)
  • Epsilon - Strong TS that lasts into 2007. Landfall in Mississippi. (70mph/983mb)

--24.83.117.65 21:39, 18 December 2005 (UTC)

35 mph tropical storms? See Ernesto, Leslie, Gamma: something's not right there - Bootstoots 18:46, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Bsd987's predictions

  • Sub-Tropical Depression 1 - Forms off coast of Africa on January 22, 2006 (30mph/1009mb)
  • Alberto - Forms from trop dep 2 on August 3 as Cape Verde type off of Africa before dissipating on the 5th (45mph/1000mb)
  • Beryl - Forms from trop dep 3 on August 29 in Gulf of Mexico before pounding into Houston, Texas and cancelling classes at Rice University for two days starting August 31. It swirls over Houston but causes minimal damage and dissipates on September 1 (50mph/998mb).
  • Chris - Cape Verde type that forms from trop dep 5 on September 4 before strengthening into a powerful Category 4, but makes no landfall. It kills 2 on some islands from Category 1-force winds. It becomes extratropical on September 14 over Greenland. (150mph/919mb)
  • Debby - Forms in Caribbean from trop dep 4 on September 5, makes landfall as Cat 2 in Central America and kills more than 800 people. The last warning is issued on September 11. Name retired. (105mph/961mb)
  • Ernesto - Forms from trop dep 6 late on September 12 in Mid-Atlantic, but faces great wind shear and dissipates by the morning of September 14. It regenerates on September 18, but drifts northward, becoming extratropical over the North Atlantic by the 21st. (65mph/989mb)
  • Tropical Despression 7 - Forms during same advisory as trop dep 6 in Gulf, but it does not have time to develop before slamming into Mobile Bay on September 11. One person dies directly from the storm, which brings heavy rains to the area. (35mph/1005mb)
  • Florence - Forms at extremely low latitude as a Cape Verde type on September 15 from a previously non-tropical front. It moves extremely slowly but does not strengthen greatly. It becomes a hurricane on September 24 and makes landfall as a Category 1 in Columbia on September 30. It crosses over to the Pacific on October 2 as a Tropical Depression, where it becomes the ninth named storm on October 4. It strengthens to a Category 4 before weaking to a Category 2 and hits Hawaii on October 15. It does not dissipate until October 21, making it the longest lasting storm on record. (80mph/984mb in Atlantic; 145mph/916mb in Eastern Pacific; 125mph/938mb in Central Pacific)
  • Gordon - Forms from trop dep 9 in the Caribbean on September 25, becoming the fifth storm to form in September. It drifts through Cuba on the 26th before restrengthening to a strong tropical storm. It makes landfall on September 28 just north of Fort Pierce in South Florida. It dissipates in the middle of the state by midnight on September 30. (70mph/986mb)
  • Helene - Forms from trop dep 10 as a Cape Verde type on September 30 at 11pm, becoming the sixth and final storm to form in September. As the Cape Verde season is over, it faces high wind shear and is directed north-westerly where it gets torn apart by an upper level front on October 6. It had become a hurricane briefly on the 2nd and into the morning of the 3rd. (75mph/982mb)
  • Tropical Depression 11 - Forms on October 19, but fails to strengthen despite predictions that it could become a strong hurricane. It dissipates over cool waters south of Bermuda on October 25. (35mph/1002mb)
  • Tropical Depression 12 - Forms on October 23 directly south of Havana, but is not allowed to enter because of trade restrictions in Cuba. Waits there for forty-one years while the U.S. Government debates changing the stupid law. Strengthens to Tropical Storm Fidel on October 26, 2047. (35mph/1007mb)
  • Isaac -Forms early in the morning on December 28 from sub trop dep 13. It is Subtropical Storm Isaac until December 30, when it gains tropical characteristics. It weakens to a tropical depression on January 2 and advisories are discontinued on the 3rd. (45mph/1001mb)

Bsd987 22:29, 29 December 2005 (UTC)

[edit] Tcatron565's predictions

My Prediction
Records:

  • Strongest - Patty 881 mbar barely beating Hurricane Wilma.
  • Weakest - TD6 1113 mbar
  • Most storms - 32
  • Most named - 28
  • Most September Storms - 9 (K-S)

Peak Intensity:

  • Cat. 5: Ernesto, Patty, Eta (year goes out with a bang!)
  • Cat. 4: Oscar, Beryl, Helene, Nadine, Alpha
  • cat. 3: Leslie, Joyce, Gordon, Debby, William
  • cat. 2: Florence, Zeta, Michael
  • cat. 1: Gamma, Beta, Sandy, Isaac
  • tropical storm: Alberto, Chris, Kirk, Rafael, Tony, Delta, Epsilon, Valerie, Florence
  • tropical depression: 1, 6, 9, 15, 30

Weirdness:
Many of the storms will be weird.

  • 6: Lowest pressure, forms on the cost of Florida. (see map)
  • Rafael: Forms from a snow storm from Maine.
  • Valerie: Forms in middle of North Atlantic and moves all across the world in 1 1/2 days.
  • Eta: Forms way up north and runs down Atlantic quickly and cuts to the Pacific and disspates on Equator.

Maps:

Hurricane Patty

Landfalls:

  • Alberto - Cuba, Texas
  • Beryl - Florida
  • Chris - Oscar coming soon
  • Patty - Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida, Texas
  • Rafael - end coming soon

User:Tc4atron565

Uhh, I hate to be this guy, but If a pressure system had a minimum pressure of 1113mbar, it would be a high pressure system with an eye. Just sayin. →Cyclone1→ 20:06, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Hurricane Eric's predictions

I'm almost never right on these things, but I'll give it a shot.

Strongest storm: Oscar - 145 knot-winds, 909 millibars of pressure

Deadliest storm: Isaac - 700+ dead, Category 2 hitting Honduras

Costliest storm: Leslie - $10-15 billion in damage, Category 3 in north-central Texas

Fish-spinners: Alberto, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Helene, Patty, Sandy, Tony

Major hurricanes: Florence, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Oscar, and Patty

-- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 22:12, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

Oh, come on, never right? You almost got a category five prediction right! Almost... Lol. →Cyclone1→ 02:34, 27 August 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Jamie C's predictions

Category 5s - Chris, Michael, Rafael, Zeta (Either tying or beating record for most 5s depending on Emily)
Category 4s - Isaac, Leslie ,Alpha
Category 3s - Alberto, Joyce (record for major hurricanes)
Category 2s - Kirk, Gamma
Category 1s - Florence, Helene, Oscar, Patty, William, Eta (smashing 05s most hurricanes record)
Tropical Storms - Ernesto, Nadine, Sandy, Valerie, Beta, Delta, Iota, Debby, Gordon
Subtropical Storms - Epsilon, Theta, Tony
Tropical Depressions - 2, Beryl (turns out not to have reached storm strength in the post-storm report), 7, 16, 27
Subtropical Depressions - 4
Landfalls:
5 - Michael in Nicaragua, the next Mitch but only claiming 6000 lives.
4 - Chris in Florida (second landfall); Michael in Florida (second landfall); Alpha in Cuba; Zeta in South Carolina
3 - None
2 - Gamma, Yucatan Peninsula and again in Texas
1 - Rafael, New England; Florence, Cuba; Kirk, Venezuela
TS - Chris, Jamaica; Kirk, Belize (second landfall); Leslie, Gibraltar & Morrocco, (see entry in strangest storm); Michael, North Carolina (3rd landfall); Valerie, Mississppi; Iota, Louisiana.


Retired names:

  • Chris
  • Leslie (for being weird)
  • Michael
  • Rafael
  • Alpha
  • (Possibly) Gamma
  • Zeta

Jamie C 16:51, 1 January 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Pobbie Rarr's Predictions

  • Alberto - (May 11-14) forms Mid-Atlantic, tracks west, hits Bermuda as TD (50mph/992mb)
  • Beryl - (June 16-20) forms near Jamaica, hits Yucatan as minimal hurricane & Texas as TS (80mph/984mb)
  • Chris - (July 9-11) forms W.Gulf Of Mexico, hits Alabama as TS (60mph/990mb)
  • Debby - (July 23-31) first Cape Verde, tracks west through Caribbean briefly reaching Cat. 4. Hits Antigua & Louisiana as a Cat.3 (145mph/939mb)
  • Ernesto - (July 29-August 4) fish-spinner in Mid-Atlantic (45mph/994mb)
  • Florence - (August 7-21) Cape Verde, hits Barbados as Cat. 3, Jamaica as Cat. 4, Cuba as Cat. 5 & Florida as Cat. 4. Reaches Cat. 5 three times in the Caribbean (180mph/901mb)
  • Gordon - (August 11-16) forms near the Bahamas, heads NW of Bermuda (115mph/963mb)
  • Helene - (August 18-25) forms S.Caribbean, rapidy reaches Cat. 4 but is weakened by Florence's cool wake. Hits Dominican Republic as Cat. 1 (145mph/937mb)
  • Isaac - (August 28-September 1) briefly a hurricane in Mid-Atlantic (80mph/987mb)
  • Joyce - (September 1-3) forms in Bay Of Campeche, hits Veracruz as TS (65mph/995mph)
  • Kirk - (September 2-18) Cape Verde, tracks north of Caribbean and hits Florida as Cat. 4, then Alabama as Cat. 3. Spends about 30 hours at Cat. 5 north of Puerto Rico (165mph/912mb)
  • Leslie - (Septmeber 4-8) Mid-Atlantic fish-spinner (55mph/992mb)
  • Michael - (September 7-14) forms south of Jamaica, hits Belize as Cat. 2 (105mph/969mb)
  • Nadine - (September 14-25) Cape Verde, turns north and hits Iceland as powerful ET storm (70mph/985mb)
  • Oscar - (September 22-24) forms W.Gulf Of Mexico, hits Galveston as minimal hurricane (80mph/981mb)
  • Patty - (September 30-October 5) Bahama Buster, hits North Carolina as Cat. 2 (115mph/953mb)
  • Rafael - (October 12-19) forms south of Jamaica, hits Tulum as Cat. 4 then S.Texas as Cat. 3 (155mph/930mb)
  • Sandy - (October 18-26) Mid-Atlantic fish-spinner (55mph/989mb)
  • Tony - (November 4-12) forms E.Caribbean, hits Dominican Republic & Haiti as Cat. 1 (90mph/977mb)

Retired names - Debby, Florence, Kirk, Rafael

Pobbie Rarr 03:28, 17 February 2006 (UTC)


[edit] PolitiCalypso's predictions

Edited to improve and flesh out. At this point I'm not making anything more detailed than this.

I have lots of family on the Gulf Coast, so I feel weird about doing hurricane betting... but my interests are what they are, and this IS interesting.

The Law of averages suggests that Beryl, Helene, Leslie, and Nadine are good candidates. It's been awhile since there were any bad storms that began with these letters, except for L, and Lili is debatable.

Beryl: Mid-July Dennis-style Category 4 that scares everyone to death but does what a lot of storms do and weakens (to 100 mph Cat. 2) before striking the Florida Panhandle.

Helene: This is my preliminary pick for strongest of the season. 180-195 mph Allen clone that forms in the Caribbean; lowest pressure in the low 890s. Starts an EWRC before striking Jamaica at Category 4 intensity, reintensifies to Category 5 but drops again, avoiding direct hits on all land in the Caribbean after this. Hits west Texas at 130-135 mph, sideswiping the cities but not subjecting them to the strongest winds.

Leslie: Very similar in track to the 1947 Fort Lauderdale Hurricane. I think there will be a bad strike on Florida and I'm predicting this name. 905-915 mb, 165 mph Category 5, fresh from the intensifying power of the Gulf Stream, and it makes landfall as such around Labor Day between Ft. Lauderdale and Miami. Low death toll, but its total damage figure comes in at $55-60 billion.

Nadine: September East Coast monster following closely behind its vicious sister, Category 4 at its strongest point. Curves slowly up the coastline, weakening from Category 4 to Category 3 as it moves, makes landfall at Category 3 intensity around Washington, D.C. Floods the entire Eastern seaboard from South Carolina to New England in a Floyd-esque disaster (which FEMA naturally screws up). Direct death toll 100+ and damage well over $20 billion from the number of places it affects.

--PolitiCalypso 21:27, 24 March 2006 (UTC)


[edit] Madeline's Predictions

These are my predictions for this season:

  1. None of the above predictions will be totally right and none of the above predictions will be totally wrong.
  2. There will be new squabblings about which storms get articles, complaints about the season article getting too lengthly, attempts to split off the storms into a seperate article, constant edit and reversions, article splits and mergers and resplits and remergers, the talk page archives getting longer than the season article, and constant disagreement. Miss Madeline | Talk to Madeline 21:17, 8 February 2006 (UTC)
That prediction sounds like it will be highly accurate :), and don't forget about the anonymous vistor that will drop by to fool us and tell us that a storm's report is out and something shocking is revealed in it. Weatherman90 22:29, 20 February 2006 (UTC)
I agree. That prediction is truth. -Winter123 23:28, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
Plus, 600+ possible tropical storms will be identified by wikipedians and rage against the NHC will occur for not noticing them. (no offense, Winter123. Heck, I even agree with you on the July 17 storm.) →Cyclone1→ 02:33, 27 August 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Storm05's Predictons

I have my Prediction (this time with a backup list).

  • Subtropical Storm Alberto (Mar 1-4)-Forms on March 9 in the atlantic moved north east before dissapating on March 4. (50mph/1001mb)
  • Tropical Storm Beryl (May 11-18)-moderately strong tropical storm, but a fishspinner. (65mph/994mb)
  • Hurricane Chris (May 21-25)-Cat 1 hurricane, fishspinner in Central Atlanitc. (75mph/990mb)
  • Hurricane Debby (June 4-9)-Cat 1 hurricane, another fishspinner, comes 400 miles east of Bermuda as a tropical depression. (80mph/980mb).
  • Tropical Storm Ernesto (June 21-23)-short lived storm, didnt do much, dissapated in the carribbean. (40mph/1004mb)
  • Hurricane Florence (July 2-9)-Cat 1 hurricane, fishspinner. (85mph/978mb)
  • Hurricane Gordon (July 14-21)-Cat 1 hurricane, fishspinner. (80mph/980mb)
  • Hurricane Helene (July 23-29)-Cat 1 hurricane, fishspinner. (75 mph/992mb)
  • Hurricane Issac (July 27-Aug 4)-Cat 2 hurricane, fishspinner, breifly reached cat 2 status. (100 mph/974)
  • Hurricane Joyce (July 31-Aug 8)-Cat 1 hurricane, fishspinner, went due north. (75mph/989mb)
  • Tropical Storm Kirk (Aug 3-6)-coastal storm, formed near South Carolina, hits outerbanks, minimal damage and 3 deaths. (50mph/1000mb).
  • Hurricane Leslie (Aug 7-18)-Cat 4 Hurricane, fishspinner untill hitting Newfoundland as a 75mph extratropical storm, $1 million dollars (USD) in damage.(140mph/939mb)
  • Hurricane Micheal(Aug 13-20)-Cat 3 hurricane, fishspinner. (115mph/969mb)
  • Hurricane Nadine (Aug 19-24)-Cat 1 hurricane, fishspinner. (80mph/980mb)
  • Hurricane Oscar (Aug 23-Sept 1)-Cat 3 hurricane, forms in eastern caribbean sea, strikes Puetro Rico as a Cat 2 hurricane. Continues on and hits Azores as a strong cat 1. 21 deaths. Name retired (125mph/955mb)
  • Hurricane Patty (Aug 29-Sept 9)-Cat 4 hurricane, rapidly forms, hits Cape Verde, Canary and Azores islands. $900 million dollars in damage.Name Retired (140mph/938mb)
  • Hurricane Rafel (Aug 31-Sept 3)-Cat 1 hurricane, didnt do much, central atlantic fishspinner.
  • Hurricane Sandy (Sept 2-5)-Cat 1 hurricane, struck Texas, simliar path as Erika in 2003. $1 million dollars in damage. 1 death. (75mph/990mb)
  • Hurricane Tony (Sept 12-19)-Cat 1 hurricane, fishspinner.(90 mph/979mb)
  • Hurricane Valerine (Sept 14-20)-Cat 2 hurricane, fishspinner, follows Tony. (105mph/973mb)
  • Hurricane William (Sept 19-24)-Cat 1 hurricane, fishspinner, follows Valerine. (80mph/980mb)
  • Tropical Storm Angelina (Sept 22-24)-weak tropical storm, makes landfall in Florida. (40mph/1009mb)
  • Tropical Depression 23 (Sept 23-24)-fishspinner. (30mph/1010mb)
  • Tropical Storm Balto (Sept 25-27)-Fishspinner. (45mph/1003mb)
  • Hurricane Cassie (Sept 27-Oct 2)-Cat 3 hurricane, hits Texas, $800 million dollars in damage.(120mph/965mb)
  • Hurricane Dongwa (Sept 29-Oct 3)-Cat 3 hurricane, ride up the east coast U.S., $1 billion dollars in damage. (120mph/967mb)
  • Hurricane Elmo (Oct 1-8)-Cat 1 hurricane, fishspinner. (80mph/989mb)
  • Hurricane Flenna(Oct 3-9)-Cat 1 hurricane, fishspinner, follows Elmo. (80mph/980mb)
  • Hurricane Gillian (Oct 12-19)-Cat 1 hurricane, fishspinner, follows Flenna. (75mph/990mb)
  • Hurricane Henrietta(Oct 15-20)-Cat 1 hurricane, fishspinner, follows Gillian. (85mph/978mb)
  • Tropical Storm Ian (Oct 17-19)-weak storm, hits Maine. (40mph/1002mb).
  • Hurricane Julie (Oct 20-24)-Cat 1 hurricane, fishspinner. (75mph/983mb)
  • Hurricane Kovo (Oct 24-29)-Cat 1 hurricane, fishspinner. (80mph/982mb)
  • Hurricane Libby (Oct 29-Nov 3)-Cat 1 hurricane, fishspinner. (80mph/982mb)
  • Hurricane Matthias(Oct 31-Nov 9-Cat 2 hurricane, fishspinner. (100mph/974mb)
  • Tropical Storm Ninki (Nov 2-5)-hits belize. (60mph/993mb)
  • Tropical Storm Owen (Nov 19-21)-fishspinner. (40mph/1004mb)
  • Tropical Storm Pippi (Nov 24-29)-Fishspinner. (70mph/991mb)
  • Hurricane Randall (Nov 29-Dec 4)-fishspinner. (75mph/990mb)
  • Hurricane Sakura (Dec 11-19)-Fishspinner. (75mph/983mb)
  • Tropical Storm Tim (Dec 18-21)-fishspinner. (55mph/999mb)

Storm05 16:33, 22 February 2006 (UTC)


Too many names. Nini, Pippi, Sakura, Elmo, Balto, and Dongwa? Step away from the PBS and Anime.

ColdRedRain 20:08, 12 April 2006 (UTC)

Hey!, who knows what names will be on the back up list? Storm05 15:41, 13 April 2006 (UTC)
  • Total Storms (incl. depressions):106
  • Tropical Storms:31
  • Hurricanes:65
  • Major Hurricanes: 31
  • Cat 5 hurricanes: 13

Storm05 18:28, 22 March 2006 (UTC)

Uh... you forgot that one hypercane.Fableheroesguild 03:07, 23 March 2006 (UTC)

I say this set of predictions shouldn't be included. This has to be a joke. --Coredesat 00:32, 3 June 2006 (UTC)

Heh, heh. I can dig the name Randall. (since it's my name). →Cyclone1→ 21:20, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
Storm05, you are the most over the top predicter here! and thats why I love ya. Hurricane ELMO? Lol, I wish. I'm pretty sure if this happened the world would end. -Winter123 23:31, 16 August 2006 (UTC)

[edit] HurricaneCraze32's Predictions

Strongest Storm:Francelia (200 MPH)

ACE (104 kt2) – Storm
1 78.0 Francelia 2 60.0 Nadine
3 47.0 Joyce 4 45.5 Debby
5 29.0 Rafael 6 24.5 William
7 20.0 Michael 8 19.9 Gordon
9 18.9 Leslie 10 18.85 Alberto
11 16.0 Tony 12 12.0 Adam
13 11.6 Florence 14 9.0 Elias
15 8.50 Chris 16 4.00 Ivor
17 3.50 Haley 18 3.2 Gregorio

This'll take a while.I predict a very active season.12 storms through May 30-July 22.I'll add my leftover backup tommorrow.

  • Category 3 Hurricane Alberto - (May 31-June 7).Minimal to 100M in damage to US. (135mph/960mbar/ACE:18.85-20.00)
  • Tropical Storm Beryl - (June 4-8).Landfall in Mexico.Minimal damage to none.

(70mph/995mbar/ACE: .500-1.50)

  • Category 1 Hurricane Chris -(June 9-June 14).Landfall in US.25M or less damage.(75mph/991mbar/ACE:8.50)
  • Category 5 Hurricane Debby -(June 12-21).Landfall in Texas.5-8 Billion in damage.(195mph/878mbar/ACE:45.50)
  • Tropical Storm Ernesto -(June 21-30).Fishspinner.(50mph/1000mbar/ACE:.675)
  • Category 2 Hurricane Florence -(June 26-July 2).Landfall in US.Minimal damage.(95mph/976mbar/ACE:11.6)
  • Category 4 Hurricane Gordon -(July 2-14).Cape Verde-Hurricane.Landfall in 4 places.Bahamas,Yucatan,Mexico and Florida.Damage-900M to 4 Billion(150mph/927mph/ACE:19.90)
  • Tropical Storm Helene -(July 2-5). Fishspinner.(50mph/999mbar/ACE:.245)
  • Category 1 Hurricane Issac -(July 3-7) Fishspinner.(85mph/979mbar/ACE:2.56)
  • Category 5 Hurricane Joyce -(July 4-16) Landfall in Mexico.Damages from 4-9 billion,9000-19000 Deaths.(195mph/884mbar/ACE:47.00)
  • Tropical Storm Kirk -Fishspinner.(45mph/1001mbar/ACE:.450)
  • Category 3 Hurricane Leslie -(July 7-13) Landfall in Canary Islands.15M damage.(125mph/959mbar/ACE:18.90)
  • Category 3 Hurricane Michael -(July 13-19).Landfall in Azores.25M> Damage.(130mph/955mbar/ACE:20.00)
  • Tropical Depression 12 -(July 19-22).To be absorbed by Nadine.(30mph/1010mbar)
  • Tropical Depression 13 -(July 29-Aug 3).Minimal damage in Cuba. (35mph/1009mbar)
  • Tropical Depression 14 -(Aug 3-5).Fishspinner.(30mph/1010mbar)
  • Category 5 Hurricane Nadine-(August 8-21).CapeVerde,Landfall in Haiti and Honduras.13B in damage.(180mph/900mbar/ACE:60)
  • Tropical Storm Oscar -(August 22-August 24).Jose(2005)-like storm.8 deaths in Azores.(55mph/1000mbar/ACE:1)
  • Tropical Storm Patty -(August 25-August 29).Fishspinner.(65mph/995mbar/ACE:1.5-2.5)
  • Category 4 Hurricane Rafael -(August 29-September 8)-Landfall in US.5B in damage.(140mph/943mbar/ACE:29.00)
  • Tropical Storm Sandy (September 3).To strengthen and weaken that day.(40mph/1002mph/ACE:.550)
  • Category 2 Hurricane Tony(Sept.3-Sept.8) Fishspinner.(105mph/969mbar/ACE:16.0)
  • Category 1 Hurricane Valerie(Sept.9-13) Spain landfall. (85mph/987mbar/ACE:3)
  • Category 4 Hurricane William Mississippi landfall.1-5B,(150mph/929mbar/ACE:24.50)
  • Category 2 Hurricane Adam Mississippi landfall.600M damage.(105mph/973mbar/ACE:12.0)
  • Tropical Storm Bea Florida landfall.No damage.(40mph/1002mbar/ACE:.245)
  • Subtropical Depression 26 Fishspinner.(25mph/1015mbar)
  • 'Tropical Storm Cossack Fishspinner. (70mph/989mbar/ACE:1.0)
  • Category 1 Hurricane Deedee Fishspinner.(80mph/980mbar/ACE:2.7)
  • Category 3 Hurricane Elias Landfall in the Yucatan.500M in damage.(135mph/970mbar/ACE:9.0)
  • Category 5 Hurricane Francelia-Not been used since 1969.Landfall in Virginia.6B-12B in damage.(200mph/869mbar/ACE:78.0)
  • Tropical Storm Gregorio -Landfall in Dominica.Landfall as Extratropical in Norway.Minimal Damage.(60mph/993mbar/ACE:3.2)
  • Tropical Storm Haley Fishspinner.(70mph/991mbar/ACE:3.5)
  • Category 1 Hurricane Ivor Landfall in Florida (75mph/989mbar/ACE:4.0)


  • Seems very highly unlikely. Two storms smashing the 190 mph record set by Cammile and Allen isn't highly plausible. One, maybe, is, but not two. Also, and this isn't just directed at you, but why are people making their own backup lists? The NHC or whoever makes the list will create an official backup list in a couple of weeks for us to eat up.Fableheroesguild 04:27, 25 February 2006 (UTC)
  • Trying to make Francelia look strong.A storm that hasnt been used since 1969.I know she's a little to strong as is Joyce.Just my prediction.HurricaneCraze32 14:04, 25 February 2006 (UTC)
  • You've predicted the hurricane season from hell. 11 major storms, sub-880 mb June Cat. 5, a storm with the death toll of Mitch, four category 5s, Wilma demoted to third lowest by the end of the season, Gilbert demoted to 5th, Tip's record smashed... I hope you're wrong. :D I really, really hope you're wrong. (Although I wouldn't be shocked if we had one sub-890 storm or maybe two.) -PolitiCalypso 23:41, 5 March 2006 (UTC)
  • There is no way the 190 mph windspeed measurement will be broken for one main reason. The NHC "estimates" those sustained wind speeds, and the measuring accuracy/precision during the time of Camille and even Allen was far inferior to what we have now. Those hurricanes could have had windspeeds below Gilbert and Wilma. Wilma's windspeeds were estimated too and were not even examined at the time of its absolute peak intensity (hurricane hunter aircraft had to refill), and since Wilma was much more powerful than Camille (906mb? vs 882mb), I believe that Wilma's sustained winds could have exceeded or equalled 190 mph. I also believe the pressure in Wilma could have been less than 880 mb (mid-870s?). Remember how none of the storms of the 2005 season had winds above 175 mph originally, that was due to such inaccuracy with the forecasts of very high windspeeds and NHC conservatism. I hope with the low number of aircraft available this year to the NHC, we don't end up with inaccurate readings and forecasts of possibly record-breaking hurricanes and dangerous ones.The great kawa 22:44, 20 May 2006 (UTC)
Good points. NHC sucks. Partly because you cant survive in a 175mph+ wind to measure it. Winter123 23:33, 16 August 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Weatherman90's Predictions

-Just visit my hurricane userpage for my complete 2006 Predictions! -Just when you thought that you were obsessive, you see this ;) User:Weatherman90/Hurricanes

---Weatherman90 16:43, 11 March 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Omni ND's predictions

If anyone wants to read my predictions for the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, feel free to drop by at my userpage. It isn't done yet, but I'll add on to it. WARNING WARNING WARNING WARNING I feel that I'm psychic; last year, I knew which tropical cyclones will become Category 5, and I predict an even worse season for '06. Omni ND 23:27, 15 March 2006 (UTC)(forgot to sign)

User:Omni ND/Forecast for the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season

Wow, you really love Bush don't you? --Nilfanion 18:27, 25 April 2006 (UTC)
Yea he must because an entire storm is just revenge on Bush and another one is about Bush's and the Republican party's downfall.Fableheroesguild 20:23, 25 April 2006 (UTC)

For a set of more realistic predictions, go here. Omni ND 12:09, 6 May 2006 (UTC)

Hurricanes can't intensify over land BTW. Irfanfaiz 13:41, 7 August 2006 (UTC)

[edit] ColdRedRain's predictions

  • Alberto - Weak Cape Verde hurricane that strikes poorly prepared Hati, killing 100. Develops around early June.

Yeah... umm, that was an accurate prediction.

  • Beryl - Slow moving tropical storm that develops in the Gulf, moves eastward, strikes Tampa Bay, later upgraded to a hurricane after the season ends. Floods lots of houses. Considered for retirement. Develops around mid June.

I was right. It was a slow moving tropical storm.

  • Chris - Cat 4 fishspinner. Fun to look at on sattelite, but nothing really to worry about.

I was right too. Nothing to worry about.

  • Debby - The monster hurricane of the season. Develops from a stalled frontal boundry. Cat 4 strikes the east coast of Florida. Retired.

We're still waiting on this one, but it looks like Debby will become a Cape Verde hurricane and get shredded by sheer when it reaches the gulf.

  • Ernesto - A Cat 2 Cape Verde hurricane that strikes Grenada, curves to the North Central Atlantic and strikes the UK as a strong extratropical storm. Gets retired due to extratropical activity. Mid July
  • Florence - Flo shows all of her fury on the squid in the North Central Atlantic. Just like Lee, except a cat 1. Late July
  • Gordon - Gordon rages his ugly head again on Haiti, striking as a Cat 3 and drowning those who Alberto didn't strike. Finally gets retired. Early August
  • Helene - A weak gulf tropical storm that strikes New Orleans. Early August
  • Isaac - A rare Canadian landfall. Cat 2 Mid August. Retired
  • Joyce - A Bahama Buster that strikes Miami and heads for Houston. Retired. Late August.
  • Kirk - Strikes Panama and crosses over the Pacific, dissipates and is renamed Lane. *Hits the bong again* First storm in North America to be retired in 2 basins. Late August. Cat 2 in the Atlantic, Cat 4 in Epac.
  • Leslie - Fish spinner in the North Atlantic. Late August. Cat 3
  • Michael - A sub tropical storm that landfalls in Northern New England. Floods. Not retired. September
  • Nadine - Sub tropical/tropical fish spinner.
  • Oscar - Hits the Carolinas. Gets nicknamed "Oscar the Grouch" A mild cat 2 storm that floods. Not retired. Mid September
  • Patty - Angers a few plankton. Cat 1 October.
  • Rafael - Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles references abound, but it's a Cat 1 that strikes Texas.
  • Sandy - Strikes Mexico as a TS. November
  • Tony - Spins fish late in the season. Subtropical storm. December

ColdRedRain 20:02, 12 April 2006 (UTC)

[edit] HurricaneRo's Predictions

This seemed interesting to do soo yeah......

 Number of storms
  • -Named Storms: 21
  • -Hurricanes: 14
  • -Major Hurricanes: 7
  • -Cat 5's: 2+


  • Category 5's- Isaac, Joyce(mayb a 5),
  • Category 4's- Debby, Florence, Kirk, Valerie
  • Category 3's- Gordon, Nadine
  • Category 2's- Alberto(wrong on intensity but right on area), Ernesto
  • Category 1's- Chris(wrong), Michael,Sandy, William
  • Tropical Storms- Beryl(Right), Ernesto, Helene,Leslie, Oscar, Rafael,patty, Tony
  • Note- I don't know why but I have a bad feeling for Florida this year, really bad

Florida storms: Alberto(panama city area), Chris(Tampa Area !wrong!), Maybe Debby( fl keys or south florida?),Florence(west palm beach area and 2nd landfall Pensacola area, Isaac(Ft. Lauderdale/miami area, Rafael(Cape CanaVeral area), Valerie(sw FL coast)

[edit] Cyclone 1's pediction

Tada! Lets see how close I come.

Depressions Storms Hurricanes Major Hurricanes Category 4&5's Retired names (kinda edgy) Retired names
21 18 14 6 5 4 Alberto, Gordon, Isaac, Kirk (It's a guys year, this year)
First and Last Tropical Cyclones Forms Dissapates
Sub-Tropical depression 1 May 20-30 May 22 - June 2
Tropical depression 21 December 13 - 20 December 15 - 23
First and last storms Strength Forms Dissapates
Hurricane Alberto category 1 June 2 - June 4th June 14 - June 18
Tropical Storm Sandy Tropical Storm November 30 - December 4 December 4 - December 7
Deaths Damages Strongest storm
600 - 1100 $30 - $50 billion Gordon or Florence
  • Alberto, although weak, will last a long time after striking Alabama/Florida, mostly over the U.S. and will cause $0.7 to $1 billion in damage and 64 deaths.
  • Debby will pass between 20 and 50 miles of Cape Hatteras as a category two, but causing no damage.
  • Florence will be a powerful category five that threatens the Lesser Antilles but weakens to a category one before crossing, becoming sheered apart, and causing minimal damage.
  • Gordon will be a tough category five hurricane that enters the gulf and crosses central Florida as a category 3, causing $10-28 billion in damage and 15 deaths.
  • Isaac will be a tropical storm that crosses Hispaniola slowly and dissapates over Florida, causing between 600 - 900 deaths in Haiti.
  • Joyce will be a tropical storm that stays well out to sea, but lasts over 19 days.
  • Kirk will be a category four that strikes Texas 100 miles north of mexico, causing $9-10 billion and 30-40 deaths.
  • Oscar reaches category four strength but stays out to sea...
  • ...as does Patty.
  • Rafael will be a minimal category three in mid November, becmoing the 2nd latest major hurricane (behind Kate) and brushes the east coast as tropical storm, never making landfall.


I doubt any of this will be right.

My florence, sorry about quality of pic, I accedentally saved as JPG not PNG
My florence, sorry about quality of pic, I accedentally saved as JPG not PNG
My Gordon, this is better quality than Flo
My Gordon, this is better quality than Flo


RETIRED


This user is no longer active on Wikipedia.
How did you make those?? -Winter123 23:34, 16 August 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Runningonbrains' predictions

  • Alberto - Missed the boat on finding this page....already occurred. Second week of June.
  • Beryl - A weak TS that causes flooding in Northern Florida. (45mph/999mb) Last week of June.
  • Chris - Moderate tropical storm in the gulf, shears to death before impacting land. (55mph/993mb) Second week of July.
  • Debby - First hurricane, threatens northeastern antilles before heading out to sea and shearing apart. (85mph/973mb) Last few weeks of July
  • Ernesto - Forms soon after Debby, runs straight across the southern Carribean, brushing Venesuela with rain. Impacts Honduras and Nicaragua as a cat 1. 22 deaths. (110mph/959mb) Last few weeks of July
  • Florence - A fast-moving storm which forms north of the antilles, crosses the bahamas, and hits georgia as a sheared system becoming extratropical (winds down to 40mph at this point) (65 mph/ 989 mb) First week of August
  • 7 - Large, disorganized tropical depression, never gets its act together and is sheared apart 800 miles south of Bermuda (30 mph/ 1004 mb) First half of August
  • Gordon - Bay of campeche storm, drifts northwest into mexico, with few deaths. Brings much needed rain to southern texas as a tropical depression. (90 mph/971mb) First half of August
  • Helene - Cape Verde fishspinner, is notable for having an annular structure. (130 mph/939mb) First half of August
    • (Wow, very close with Helene!) →Cyclone1→ 20:09, 21 October 2006 (UTC)
  • Isaac - Strong tropical storm, briefly threatens Bermuda. (70mph/977mb) Middle of August
  • Joyce - After a week of inactivity, the first of three Cape Verde storms to form in 2 days. Forms just east of the northern Antilles, impacting them as a weak tropical storm. Reaches category 3 strength as its outer bands impact the Outer Banks, but recurves into the open atlantic. Becomes a vigorous extratropical storm which affects Ireland with high wind and heavy rain. 2 deaths in the Northern Antilles from mudslides.(120mph/948mb) Last half of August
  • Kirk - Forms 12 hours after Joyce. An unusually low-latitude storm, forms near 11N, a few hundred miles east of the Antilles. Takes a while to get its act going, but does impact the antilles as a minimal hurricane. Fluctuates between TS and Cat 2 intensity because of shear, passing just east of Jamaica. Runs over the center of Cuba, barely keeping its structure over the high mountains, and dies after running north through Florida as a disorganized depression. ~100 deaths. (100mph/962mb) Last half of August
  • Leslie - Cape Verde fishspinner. (155mph/933mb) Last half of August.
  • Michael - Worst storm of the season. Classic Cape-Verde setup, becoming a tropical storm just southwest of the CV islands. Intensifies slowly over the course of a week, becoming a major hurricane 1000 miles from the lesser antilles. Fluctuates between a cat 3 and 4 several times, undergoing a few eyewall replacement cycles while approaching the islands. Directly strikes Guadeloupe and Monserrat as a cat 4, the virgin islands and puerto rico as a cat 3, causing catastrophic damage, and more than 500 deaths. It turns slightly to the right, sparing hispaniola all but a few flooding deaths. After weakening to a strong cat 1 (85 mph), it brushes the turks and caicos islands while reorganizing. While turning northward, it slows its forward motion to a crawl, and quickly intensifies to a cat 4. It accelerates slightly northwestward, and peaks at category 5 intensity over the gulf stream to the east of Georgia. It then begins accelerating north, aiming directly at Long Island and New England. Even with a day and a half of warning, authorities are unable to evacuate many people in time, leading to a catastrophe when the hurricane slams into central long island near Levittown (135 mph) and connecticut near Bridgeport (125 mph). Because of its relatively slow motion (north at 20 mph) and large size (34-kt radius of 190 miles), devastating storm surge of 5-20 feet occurs up and down the new york and CT shores, killing more than 2000 unprepared citizens. (180 mph/896mb) Last week of August into September.
  • Nadine - (mph/mb)
  • Oscar - (mph/mb)
  • Patty - (mph/mb)
  • Rafael - (mph/mb)
  • Sandy - (mph/mb)
  • Tony - (mph/mb)
  • Valerie - Highly-sheared late-season storm. (45mph/1000mb)

Runningonbrains 23:25, 22 June 2006 (UTC)

I must say, good calls on the Beryl and Chris predictions- you got amazingly close! Just the locations were off a bit. Let's see if you can get this close the rest of the season! :) -Winter123 23:23, 16 August 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Memicho's predictions

Start making your bets because it's August now and this is a month with a lot of hurricane activity. So the point is: Which hurricane do you think is going to be the strongest? I say that Florence and Helene because they seem to be strong female names for hurricanes, I say Florence won't be the strongest maybe a category 4 but it will be the deadliest and as for Helene i think it will be the strongest maybe a category 5 or strong 4 at landfall. Which ones do you think? Memicho 01:46, 8 August 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Winter123's predictions

I missed the boat as well, but we had three named storms, and one UNNAMED storm (which I am still annoyed about!). But I'm bored, so I'll make my updated predictions. I think this season will ramp up quickly the last week of august, and last into mid november.


(Strength- name- date of formation- details)

4 TS's plus...

TS-Debbie- 8/17- 95L off SC right now. It will miss the trough and move SW, strengthening to Debbie as it does so. It will cross FL and head west along the north gulf coast, and make landfall in New orleans as 40mph TS.

C1-Ernesto- 8/23- It will develop from a non-tropical low in the NE atlantic about halfway between PR and the azores, move SW, and develop into a Tropical storm. It will strenghten to a hurricane as it moves NW towards NC, along the coast, and make landfall on long island as 50mph storm.

C4-Florence- 8/30- First cape verde wave of the season, will develop at about 35W 12N, and move WNW. It will hit the northern islands then turn to the West, strengthening to a cat3 in the east carib. It will breifly make cat4 before hitting jamaica and west central cuba. Weakens to a cat2. Then a high will build over the SE, pushing it into TX as a cat3.

C3-Gordon- 9/6- follows right behind it, except further south. Slams into central america as a cat3

TS-Helene- 9/8- cluster of storms moving N of puerto rico. moves WNW, then NW, hits SC at 70mph.

C1-Issac- 9/15- cape verde wave that stays weak, actually skirts south america. Moves WNW, strengthens to TS, then hits yucatan as TS, and North MX as cat1.

C1-Joyce- 9/18 forms from cluster near bermuda, moves west a bit, strengthens to hurricane, then taken out by trough.

C5-Kirk- 9/23- MONSTER cape verde, forms almost IMMEDIATELY after coming off land, makes CAT6 (OMFG?!!??!). Nah, makes cat 5, 175 mph, slams into northern islands, weakens to cat3, hits FL and LA as cat3.

TS-(Some random unnamed subtropical storm near the azores)- 9/25- only exists for a day. 60mph.

TS-Leslie- 9/31- wave that forms and moves way north. goes out to sea. Max- 45mph.

C2-Michael- 10/5 cape verde wave, develops north of PR and HITS NYC AS A CAT5 OMG IT COULD HAPPEN TOMORROW!!!!1!1111 j/k, but I think it will hit New England as a 75mph hurricane

C3-Nadine- 10/11- cluster that moves into gulf, blows up into cat3, hits TX.

TS-Oscar- 10/22- low that moves off midatlantic coast and stalls. Develops into 55mph storm, clips bermuda.

C1-patty- 10/29- last cape verde wave, stays weak, peaks at 75mph in Caribean, hits panhandle of FL as 60mph sheared storm.

TS-rafael- 11/13- cluster that develops near bahamas, moves N, clips NC at 65mph, heads NE out to sea.

C1-sandy- 11/26- cluster in central atlantic 200 mi NE of PR, sits out there for 6 days despite forecasts to move out to sea. Heads West throught the FL straights, strengthens to a hurricane, but gets ripped apart by strong front in the gulf, never hits land.

C3-tony- 12/6- COMPLETELY unpredicted storm. Models dont even catch it after it has developed. It forms off the south end of that monster front. It sits in the Carribean for 3 days, slowly drifting east and strengthening, goes over PR as a cat 3, A much weaker front continues to move it NE but surprisingly it stays tropical, slowly weakening. It becomes one of the few storms to make landfall on the Azores. ALMOST hits France as a TD! It sets the record for the longest a storm has continued to lose longitude (move east).


12/31- upper level low starts its transitions down to the surface, it makes it on 1/2/07 and becomes the A storm. There is an unusually strong high in the NW atlantic that brings it over bermuda as 50mph storm. Originally forecast to slam into NEW JERSEY as a 60mph storm, but gets killed by next front when its 100 mi offshore.


TOTALS:

TS-21 (2 of which go unnamed- one has already occurred)

Cat1-11

Cat3-4

Cat5-1 (Captain Hurricane Kirk!- Instead of MAJOR hurricane Kirk! Yep, I'm hilarious.) Winter123 23:13, 16 August 2006 (UTC)