East Asian Community

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East Asian Community (EAC) is a proposed trade bloc for the East Asia countries that may arise out of either ASEAN Plus Three or the East Asia Summit (EAS).

Contents 1 Potential members 2 History 2.1 Prior to the EAS 2.2 Subsequent to the EAS 3 The nature of the East Asia Community 3.1 Economics aspect 3.2 Cultural differences 4 References

[edit] Potential members

If based on the members of the East Asia Summit the members will be:

Rank	Country	Population	Date	% of world population	Source
1	People's Republic of China[1]	1,324,890,000	June 11, 2008	19.86%	Chinese Population clock, in Chinese
2	India	1,133,970,000	June 11, 2008	17%	Official Indian Population clock
4	Indonesia	231,627,000		3.47%	UN estimate
10	Japan	127,790,000	December 1, 2007	1.92%	Official Japan Statistics Bureau estimate
12	Philippines	88,706,300	July 1, 2007	1.33%	Official Philippine National Statistics
13	Vietnam	87,375,000		1.31%	UN estimate
20	Thailand	63,038,247	December 31, 2007	0.94%	Official Thai Statistics estimate
24	Myanmar	48,798,000		0.73%	UN estimate
25	South Korea	48,224,000		0.72%	UN estimate
43	Malaysia	27,452,978	February 29, 2008	0.41%	Official Malaysian Population clock
53	Australia[2]	21,228,525	March 6, 2008	0.32%	Official Australian Population clock
64	Cambodia	14,444,000		0.22%	UN estimate
106	Laos	5,859,000		0.088%	UN estimate
115	Singapore	4,681,000	September 27, 2007	0.07%	Statistics Singapore
122	New Zealand	4,262,500	March 21, 2008	0.064%	Official New Zealand Population clock
171	Brunei	390,000		0.006%	UN estimate
—	Total	3,227,536,550		48,39%

• plus the Candidate ASEAN member
  •  Timor-Leste

In a presentation to the Nikkei Conference in Japan on 24 May 2007, the Philippines President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo listed 17 countries as the members of the future community but listed Russia in lieu of Timor Leste^[3]. Russia has been closely linked with the East Asia Summit as an observer member. In a later presentation on 30 May 2007 as the keynote address to the 40th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting Gloria Macapagal Arroyo listed only the 16 countries of the East Asia Summit^[4].

[edit] History

[edit] Prior to the EAS

The idea of establishing a trade community within East Asia has had a long history ^[5]. Beginning in the 1940s, Japanese occupation in East Asia was followed up by the creation of an Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere consisting of Asian nations. This idea was unsuccessful, and partly instigated the Pacific theatre of World War II. However, the intention of Asian integration did not end following the Japanese defeat.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was formed on August 8, 1967 by the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and Singapore, as a display of solidarity against communist expansion in Vietnam and insurgency within their own borders.

In 1990, Malaysia proposed a creation of an East Asia Economic Caucus^[6] composed of the then-members of ASEAN (Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand), the Peoples' Republic of China, Japan, and South Korea. This was also a failure since it faced strong objections from Japan and the United States

After a series of failures, ASEAN and its neighbors created another regional grouping the ASEAN Plus Three, established in 1997 and institutionalised in 1999^[7]. The significance of this grouping was demonstrated in the response to the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997. ASEAN Plus Three appeared to take the role of community building in East Asia.

In 1999, a Joint Statement on East Asia Cooperation^[8] was issued on the topic of East Asian integration by ASEAN.

In 1998, ASEAN Plus Three established The East Asian Vision Group of eminent persons which reported in 2001. In turn in 2001 the East Asian Study Group was established. In 2002, ASEAN Plus Three received the Final Report of the East Asian Study Group^[9]. This included a recommendation to establish an East Asia Summit.

As a result, the status of ASEAN Plus Three is unclear with the existence of the more recent East Asia Summit established in 2005 following this process and involving all the members of ASEAN Plus Three, together with India, Australia and New Zealand ^{[10] [11]}.

[edit] Subsequent to the EAS

After the EAS was established the issue arose of whether any future East Asia Community would arise from the EAS or ASEAN Plus Three. Malyasia felt that it was still the case that the role of the community building fell to ASEAN Plus Three shortly before the second EAS despite "confusion"^[12]. China apparently agreed whereas Japan and India felt the EAS should be the focus of the East Asian Community^[13].

After the first EAS the feasibility of EAS to have a community building role was questioned with Ong Keng Yong, the secretary-general of ASEAN being quoted as describing the EAS as little more than a "brainstorming forum"^[14] Nevertheless the Chairman’s Press Statement for the Seventh ASEAN Plus Three Foreign Ministers’ Meeting Kuala Lumpur, 26 July 2006 said

25. The Ministers welcomed the convening of the East Asia Summit as a forum for dialogue on broad strategic, political and economic issues of common interest with the aim of promoting peace, stability and economic prosperity in East Asia. In this respect, they recognized that the East Asia Summit could make a significant contribution to the achievement of the long-term goal of establishing an East Asian community.

It appeared that over time following the first EAS the focus was less on whether the EAS has a role in community building to what the role and whether it was secondary to ASEAN Plus Three. By mid-2006 the Chinese news site Xinhua Net suggested the community would would arise through a two-phase process with ASEAN Plus Three as the first phase and the EAS as the second phase^[15]. The China-India joint declaration of 21 November 2006 linked, at paragraph 43, the EAS with the East Asian Community process^[16].

The concentric circle model of the community process with ASEAN at the centre, ASEAN Plus Three at the next band and the East Asia Summit at the outer band is supported by the Second Joint Statement on East Asia Cooperation Building on the Foundations of ASEAN Plus Three Cooperation which said:

III. Looking Forward to a Decade of Consolidation and Closer Integration (2007-2017)

A. Defining the Objectives and Roles of the ASEAN Plus Three Cooperation in the Emerging Regional Architecture

1. We reaffirmed that the ASEAN Plus Three Process would remain as the main vehicle towards the long-term goal of building an East Asian community, with ASEAN as the driving force.

...

3. We recognised and supported the mutually reinforcing and complementary roles of the ASEAN Plus Three process and such regional fora as EAS, ARF, APEC and ASEM to promote East Asian community building.

4. We reiterated that East Asian integration is an open, transparent, inclusive, and forward-looking process for mutual benefits and support internationally shared values to achieve peace, stability, democracy and prosperity in the region. Guided by the vision for durable peace and shared prosperity in East Asia and beyond, we will stand guided by new economic flows, evolving strategic interactions and the belief to continue to engage all interested countries and organisations towards the realisation of an open regional architecture capable of adapting to changes and new dynamism.

The Chairman's Statement of the 3rd East Asia Summit Singapore, 21 November 2007 also states:

21. We stressed our conviction that the EAS should continue to help build a united and prosperous East Asia, with ASEAN as the driving force working in close partnership with other participants of the East Asia Summit. We reaffirmed that the East Asia Summit is an important component of the emerging regional architecture and would help build an East Asian community. It should play a complementary and mutually reinforcing role with other regional mechanisms, including the ASEAN dialogue process, the ASEAN Plus Three process, the ARF, and APEC in community building efforts.

A first stage of a future community may be seen in the Comprehensive Economic Partnership for East Asia (CEPEA) proposed by Japan for the members of the East Asia Summit. The reality appears however that movement towards such a relationship is a long way-off. Lee Kuan Yew has compared the relationshiop between South-East Asia and India with that of the European Community and Turkey, and has suggested that a free-trade area involving South-East Asia and India is 30 to 50 years away ^[17]

[edit] The nature of the East Asia Community

The shape of the East Asia Community remains something to be defined in the future. The issues being explored at this stage deal with whether there will be a Community which must be resolved prior to understanding what it will look like^[18].

Some have linked the EAS with a future broader Asian Economic Community like the European Community^[19]. However some commentators see this an overly optimistic vision^[20] and it is plainly in the very distant future if it is to occur - the European Community has taken decades to reach its current shape.

On any view community building is not a short term project. However after the second EAS the Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh was confident that the EAS would lead to an East Asia Community^[21]. China had also apparently accepted this was the case^[22].

If achieved the Comprehensive Economic Partnership for East Asia (CEPEA) would be a tangible first step in the community building process. The Second EAS and Third EAS seems to have increased confidence in CEPEA but is still only a proposal ^[23].

For the moment currency union, as distinct from the Asian Development Bank proposed Asian Currency Unit, is not even being purused within ASEAN, much less the broader members of the EAS^[24].

[edit] Economics aspect

The idea of a pan-Asian trading bloc has been proposed given the potential for the economic benefits that may be produced from such structures in light of the success of European Community (now the European Union), and ASEAN Free Trade Area.

It is economics perhaps more than anything else which is driving the discussion. The Indian External Affairs Minister Shri Pranab Mukherjee was quoted as saying in February 2007^[25]:

Speaking at the Summit, Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh said that the long term goal of the EAS should be the creation of a harmonious and prosperous community of nations that would pool its resources to tackle common challenges. He also observed that a virtual Asian Economic Community was emerging with the Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) amongst countries of the region. However, there is a need for a wider perspective so that ongoing processes could become building blocks for a larger vision. It was in this context that we have suggested a Pan-Asian Free Trade Arrangement that could be the starting point for an Economic Community. Such a community would be the third pole of the world economy after the European Union and the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA).

A view also supported by the Indian Defence Minister Shri A.K.Antony the next day^[26]:

In the regional context, the contours of an Asian economic integration are beginning to take shape. The East Asia Summit (EAS) has gathered a self-sustaining momentum towards the creation of an East Asian Community in the coming years. It may even lead to a larger Asian solidarity, as envisioned by Pandit Nehru in the early 1950s.We perceive the comprehensive interaction with South-East Asia as a vehicle for regional growth. It will eventually lead to prosperity and true peace in the entire region.

However, economic progress and social development will need a conducive environment for growth, particularly in terms of regional stability and security. The end of the Cold War did provide the necessary systemic conditions, but it was at best only a transitional phase. Over the last few years, the region as a whole has witnessed a steady realignment of geo-strategic equations.

Hence it can be seen that fear of large international trading blocs is driving this discussion.

The Third EAS approved the establishment of the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia to further investigate economic integration between the EAS members.

[edit] Cultural differences

The cultural, religious, language and racial groupings in the EAS are diverse^[27]. There is also great disparity in the size and level of development in the economies and in the populations of the nations involved. Plainly the level of support within the EAS for such an ambitious role for the EAS is mixed.

The Japanese Government has proposed an exchange program over the five years from 2007 to 2011 with up to 6,000 youths per annumm visiting Japan from EAS member countries^[28].

[edit] References