Talk:Demographic transition

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August 22, 2005 Featured article candidate Not promoted
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Contents

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[edit] Stage 5

I remember that some geographers and economists discussed the possibility of adding a Stage 5 to the model. This would include highly developed countries like Sweden that have seen their birth rates fall below their death rates, leading to negative natural population growth. --Madchester 05:10, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

Blah

So we would have a stage five without a "stage four" , ... blah indeed --Melaen 11:12, 31 January 2006 (UTC)

Isn't it now accepted that there is a need for another stage other than the origonal 3. But why a 5th? Is there any substantial difference between stage 4 and 5?


I would also really object to the statement that it is widely accepted that a fifth step is needed, first in general the entire theory is somewhat outdated and seems to be not really used in contemporary demographic research and more importantly I don’t see what in a major way distinguishes this 5th step from the 4th. Also it is quite hard to explain this 5th step with the very clear (though maybe faulty) logic behind the second, third and forth step. If the sentence is to be left I would try to find some sort of research backing it up. While the part about ageing in the world is relevant I would suggest not calling it the fifth step. More relevant to the article seems Van de Kaas ideas about a second demographic transition (even though it is somewhat different in character).

[edit] First paragraph

the term demographic transition is used to describe the transition from high birth rates and death rates to low birth and death rates that occurs as part of the economic development of a country from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economy. Usually it is described through the "Demographic Transition Model" that describes the population changes over time.

replace this clunky def with something better someone!

[edit] Role of contraception

In developing countries today access to contraceptives to prevent AIDS

Dont know if this is such an "important factor" in stage two as the article boldly asserts. Anyone know?? I thought data on the sucess or otherwise of  AIDS prevention through contraception is unclear at best yet alone the correlation it has on econ development . Suggest this is deleted.

[edit] Economic burden of oldies

The large group born during stage two ages creates an economic burden on the shrinking working population

Not happy with the use of the word "burden", but im no economist so I dont want to change anything! The problem is institutional not a resource one ie the ratio of healthy working years to disabled years has not necessarily changed.

[edit] Further source

http://www.uwmc.uwc.edu/geography/Demotrans/demtran.htm
Keith Montgomery has given permission for the contents of this page to be moved into Wikipedia.

[edit] no countries in Stage 1?

the article says that there are no countries still in stage 1. this is completely untrue, as developing countries such as ethiopia, bangladesh, some rainforest tribes, and other poor african countries are still in stage 1. --Danbrown99 19:31, 11 January 2007 (UTC)

No, they are in stage 2, their mortality rates have fallen substantially. However, Bangladesh is in Stage 3 and will soon be in Stage 4, its TFR is 2.85 (see List of countries and territories by fertility rate)--Grahamec 01:31, 12 January 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Stage 2

What has happened to Stage 2?! 86.132.190.15 13:51, 25 March 2007 (UTC)

Still no Stage 2. I'll see if I can get to adding it later, if I have the time. Okuzaone 17:15, 19 April 2007 (UTC)

I've put it back - see the history. Basically what happened is that a vandal made some changes to the article that were not in the stage 2 section. Someone reverted those changes, but while they were being reverted, the vandal removed the stage two section. MediaWiki didn't take this as an edit conflict because changes were being made to two different sections of the article, so it accepted both changes. It sounds complicated but that's what happened. Graham87 08:06, 27 April 2007 (UTC)
That explanation is most likely incorrect. see my message at the technical section of the village pump - the time between the vandal removing the section and the revert was 1 second, so the server did not take the most recent vandal edit into account and therefore it was not reverted. Graham87 14:09, 27 April 2007 (UTC)
Subsistence farming and obstacles posed by title are legitimate aspects that characterize transitions in countries with lopsided development, in contrast to previous economic transitions in Europe. This section should be better explained and expanded but it is connected to the topic, as one of the main criticisms of the DT model is that it doesn't so neatly apply to these other countries. So I will restore that section, but welcome the input of other editors about it. I also made a slight change to the intro sentence.Giovanni33 (talk) 06:53, 14 March 2008 (UTC)
De Soto makes no connection between his work and the demographic transition. Source for "as one of the main criticisms of the DT model".Ultramarine (talk) 07:20, 14 March 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Tagged for original research and insufficient references

I've added article tags for suspected original research and insufficient references. I've also added in-line tags for lack of citations and OR in some parts of the body of the article. The article currently only has six unique citation sources, with much of the information in the article not supported by specific refences. There also seems to be some OR, for example:

...birth rates remain high in some nations, particularly Saudi Arabia, despite great increases in prosperity, probably partly as a result of government policy and partly as a result of the limited need and opportunity for mothers to work.

The conclusions presented in that passage look like speculation to me (see wp:No original research), especially with no specific citation present. Beejaypii (talk) 15:06, 25 May 2008 (UTC)

I've added further tags to the "Stage 4" and Stage 5" sections. Again, these sections seem to be unsubstantiated and composed largely of original research. Beejaypii (talk) 11:17, 26 May 2008 (UTC)

[edit] DTM Ethnocentric

While we're at it, I think we need to expand the criticism section. The DTM places all societies along a linear scale of development, measured against the standards of modern Western Civilization. This contradicts contemporary approaches to Sociocultural evolution, and perpetuates an ethnocentric worldview. It also ignores basic anthropology. Stage 1 of the model, for example, seems to apply only to agricultural societies (where birth and death rates are high), and does not reflect the situation of pre-agricultural (hunter-gatherer) societies, where birth and death rates were typically low.--Pariah (talk) 05:22, 30 May 2008 (UTC)