Image:Cost-of-storms-by-decade.gif

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Revised graph: The cost of extreme weather is rising rapidly and could reach 350 billion U.S. 2001 dollars per year by 2025. source data: IPCC, 2001. Some of the cost increase is due to added exposure such as building on the coast.

[edit] Summary

Original caption: "The cost of extreme weather events is rising rapidly and could reach a trillion dollars by 2050. source data: IPCC, 2001" Please note that neither this graph or its revision below includes data from 2000-2005.

This extrapolation graph entitled, "Average yearly inflation-adjusted dollar cost of extreme weather events worldwide," which I used the free 'R' program to create from the data here has been placed in the public domain. The y-axis is "billions," (0 to 1000, although the tick marks omit 1000) the x-axis is "decade," (1960 to 2040, although the data ranges from 1950 to 2050) and the third-degree polynomial extrapolation has an R-squared value of 0.98. Nrcprm2026 20:16, 19 December 2005 (UTC)

[edit] External publication and source code

The graph was published on Slashdot in June 2005. Please see there the script used to create it and reviewer's comments.

[edit] This graph has been nominated for revision

Please note that neither of these graphs include any data from 2000-2005.

The earlier proposed revision had confidence bands, an additional degree of freedom, and a nonnegative domain. Its proposed caption was, "The cost of extreme weather is rising rapidly and could reach four trillion dollars by 2020. Historical source data: IPCC, 2001. Some of the increase is due to greater exposure such as building on the coast." The emerging consensus was that it should have been based on a logistic sigmoid fit because the underlying cause is, but the sigmoid had a much weaker fit to the data.

I, the copyright holder of this work, hereby release it into the public domain. This applies worldwide. In case this is not legally possible, I grant any entity the right to use this work for any purpose, without any conditions, unless such conditions are required by law.

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