Talk:Condorcet's jury theorem

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Please help improve this article or section by expanding it. Further information might be found on the talk page or at requests for expansion. (January 2007)

Needed: some discussion of the history, a citation, perhaps a proof. --best, kevin [kzollman][talk] 17:52, 9 August 2006 (UTC)

[edit] True information does not necessarily imply the true answer

The article currently includes these statements:

Any answer based on true information correctly processed must have a greater than fifty percent chance of being correct. The only way to go below fifty percent chance is to have either incorrect information or badly processed information.

This is incorrect. True information could easily point to the wrong answer. For example, suppose a certain innocent individual is accused of a crime. DNA evidence is found at the crime scene that matches the defendant's. Correctly processing this information may mean that defendant is probably guilty, but in this example, the conclusion is wrong. Or suppose in a primitive culture, a rain dance is performed five times and it rains each time. Correct processing of this information (in the absence of any information about the true causes of rain) leads to the conclusion that performing the rain dance brings rain, but the conclusion is incorrect. Anomalocaris (talk) 21:23, 21 December 2007 (UTC)