User:CapeVerdeWave/Sandbox

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The warm frontal Florida outbreak was a significant tornado outbreak that affected the central and southern Florida peninsula. The event produced a large ration of strong tornadoes, including one of only three violent F4 or EF4 tornadoes to affect the state. Five EF3 tornadoes occurred within the Miami National Weather Service office's Central Watch Area, which was a record 24-hour total in South Florida.

[edit] Summary

0600Z

A warm front is draped across central Georgia. A secondary warm front lifts northward over central Florida during the early morning hours. Moderate capping remains at the mid levels south of the warm front in southern Florida. The capping gradually erodes through the early morning as the first impulse of 40 kt 850-300 mb shear arrives over the west coast of the peninsula. Backed low level winds are widespread across the peninsula at this time, varying from SE along the southeast coast to S and SSE along the southwestern coast. A few areas of SSW winds are evident from locations north of the Tampa area to the Big Bend. At this time, a surface low is located over eastern Alabama, while a secondary surface low is forming over the eastern Gulf of Mexico with a cold front trailing SSW toward the northern Yucatán Peninsula. A third surface low is forming over the western Atlantic east of Charleston, SC, with a stationary front trailing shortly to the SW. Stationary front becomes aforementioned warm front further west over FL peninsula. Low over eastern Gulf of Mexico moves remains nearly stationary or moves very slowly northward, while 0-1 km SRH increases over the southern FL peninsula in juxtaposition with 40 kt 850-300 mb shear vectors spreading southeast. Eventually, conditions at MIA and other south FL stations are supportive of supercellular structures, including sufficient veering at mid to upper levels; slight lingering CINH; weakening cap; widespread Tds into the mid/upper 60s (central FL) and upper 60s/low to mid 70s (south FL); SBCAPE values of 900-1,000 (portions of central FL) to 1,500 in several areas of southern FL; peak MUCAPE of 1,100 (central FL) and 1,650 (south FL), respectively; widespread SB LI values of -4 to -5, especially southward from south-central FL; and lapse rates comparable to the February 2008 sounding at Miami, Florida.

1200Z

The warm front continues to lift north before eventually stalling along a line from Saint Augustine to Cedar Key, FL after dawn. Low level winds back slightly along the west and southwest coast of the FL peninsula. SBCAPE values have spread further north to north-central Florida, where isolated values of around 1,000 J/KG are present near the warm front. Further south, values of 1,350 to 1,700 are present, especially from south-central Florida southward. MUCAPE values increase to 1,400 (central FL) and 1,850 (south FL). A few supercells develop along the warm front in north-central and central FL, aided by 50 kt 850-300 mb shear and lower LCL values that foster lower cloud heights. Some of the cells become long tracked tornadic supercells. From south-central FL southward, 850-300 mb shear has increased to 40 kt, and an isolated supercell develops just north and west of Lake Okeechobee with unobstructed low-level thermodynamics. It quickly becomes tornadic and produces a long tracked tornado in Okeechobee County that moves northeast into Saint Lucie County. Stronger forcing gradually spreads across the central and southern peninsula, increasing the threat further south. SB LI values of -4 to -5 spread to portions of north-central FL, while values of -5 to -6 appear from south-central FL southward. 0-1 km SRH increases over the southern peninsula. The Saint Lucie cell and additional supercells further north also leave residual outflow boundaries over the central and south-central peninsula, which gradually affects locations further south and southwest. This supports further initiation of supercells over the southern peninsula from south-central FL southward.

1800Z

Surface low over eastern AL gradually weakens as the surface low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico slowly deepens and becomes the dominant surface low. Afternoon surface heating over the southern FL peninsula combines with increasing instability and forcing, leading to further development of supercells. Strengthening mid to upper level wind fields and high 0-1 km SRH aids discrete supercells, juxtaposed with the gradually intensifying backed LLJ over the peninsula. Backed low level winds over the southern FL peninsula combine with low LCL values and strong thermodynamics to support tornadic supercells. Approaching cold front also acts as a forcing mechanism over the Gulf of Mexico, where slightly veered low level winds support the development of discrete supercells that congeal into a broken squall line along a N/S line from west of Tampa to well west of Cape Sable. Further east, backed low level winds over the peninsula and portions of southwestern FL support discrete supercells. Multiple supercells affect southwestern FL from Cape Coral to Everglades NP; some produce tornadoes, including a tornadic supercell at Everglades City. Several supercells form over the Everglades region and affect the tri-county area of southeastern FL, many of which produce tornadoes during the afternoon. Overall, multiple long tracked supercells occur over southern peninsular FL.

0000Z

Low level winds gradually veer over southern FL as the primary surface low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico moves northeast. Low level winds remain slightly backed over the central and southern peninsula, excluding the west coast. Pre-existing and new supercells continue to produce isolated tornadoes as the nocturnal LLJ strengthens. Supercells eventually evolve to bowing or linear segments as the cold front and squall line approaches and enters the peninsula overnight. Strong mid to upper level shear, the stronger and slowly veering nocturnal LLJ, 0-1 km SRH, and LCL values support isolated embedded tornadoes/BEWRs and damaging winds.

[edit] Tornado table

Confirmed Total	Confirmed EF0	Confirmed EF1	Confirmed EF2	Confirmed EF3	Confirmed EF4	Confirmed EF5
10	0	1	3	5	1	0

[edit] Confirmed tornadoes

Only tornadoes from the southern portion of the MLB CWA or the MIA CWA are included for this scenario.

F#	Location	County	Time (UTC)	Path length	Damage
EF4	SW of Okeechobee to S of Indian River Estates	Okeechobee, Saint Lucie	1100	38.4 miles (61.7 km)	Unknown
EF2	Sanibel Island to NE of Saint James City	Lee	1155	9.5 miles (15.3 km)	Unknown
EF2	McGregor to N of Lehigh Acres	Lee	1200	18.9 miles (30.4 km)	Unknown
EF2	S of Lake Harbor to NE of Belle Glade	Palm Beach	1320	13.1 miles (21.0 km)	Unknown
EF3	WSW of Weston to ENE of Fort Lauderdale	Broward	1805	21.2 miles (34.1 km)	Unknown
EF3	SW of Tamiami to Miami Beach	Miami-Dade	1835	23.6 miles (38.0 km)	Unknown
EF3	WSW of Kendall to Coconut Grove	Miami-Dade	1915	14.0 miles (22.6 km)	Unknown
EF3	NW of Country Walk to SE of Coral Gables	Miami-Dade	1955	13.8 miles (22.2 km)	Unknown
EF1	NW of Pembroke Pines to ENE of Dania Beach	Broward	2000	12.2 miles (19.7 km)	Unknown
EF3	SW of Everglades to ESE of Ochopee	Lee	2005	9.6 miles (15.5 km)	Unknown