Brokered convention

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A brokered convention refers to a situation in United States politics in which there are not enough delegates obtained during the presidential primary and caucus process for a single candidate to obtain a majority in the first round of voting of the presidential nominating convention. Once the first ballot has been held, and no candidate has a majority of delegate votes, the convention is then considered brokered, and the nomination is decided through political horse-trading and further ballots.^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]

1 Background
2 Brokered conventions today
- 2.1 2008 presidential election
3 Brokered conventions in popular culture
4 References

[edit] Background

Before the era of presidential primaries, conventions were routinely brokered. Adlai Stevenson in 1952 for the Democratic Party and Thomas Dewey in 1948 for the Republican Party would turn out to be the last two candidates selected through a brokered convention. The last brokered convention to yield a nominee that went on to win the general election was the Democratic convention in 1932 that nominated Franklin Roosevelt.

Since 1952, there have been many years when brokered conventions were projected but did not come to pass:

The Democratic Party's 1968 convention might have been brokered had it not been for the assassination of Robert F. Kennedy.

In 1976, the Republican primaries gave President Gerald Ford a slight lead in the popular vote and delegates entering the Republican National Convention but not enough delegates to secure the nomination. A brokered convention was predicted but Ford managed to receive the necessary support on the first ballot to edge Ronald Reagan.

In 1984, as a result of the Democratic primaries, former Vice President Walter Mondale was the clear frontrunner though he remained 40 delegates short of clinching the nomination. Like 1976, this had to be settled at the convention, though a convention fight was unlikely as rival Gary Hart was resigned to the likely possibility that Mondale would receive the nomination, so Hart was lobbying for the Vice Presidential slot on the ticket. Mondale received the overwhelming support of superdelegates on the first ballot to become the Democratic presidential candidate.

In 1988, a brokered convention was predicted for the Democrats. There was initially no clear frontrunner since Gary Hart had withdrawn. Also, Michael Dukakis, Al Gore, and Jesse Jackson each won multiple primaries on Super Tuesday.^[5] Dukakis was named the frontrunner by the media, as he drew support from all sections of the nation while other candidates' support was largely limited to their native regions, so he maintained the momentum to secure the nomination in the next round of primaries.

[edit] Brokered conventions today

Several factors encourage a clear and timely decision in the primary process. First, candidates tend to get momentum as they go through the process because of the bandwagon effect. Thus, one or two candidates will be portrayed by the media to voters as the front runner(s) as a result of their placement in the first primaries and caucuses, and as also-ran candidates drop out, their supporters will tend to vote for the leaders. ^[6] Theorists have identified two types of political momentum, piecemeal and all-at-once, with different impacts on front-runners and those right behind them. ^[7] Secondly, political parties wish to avoid the negative publicity from a brokered convention as well as to maximize the amount of time the nominee has to campaign for the presidency itself (there are barely two months between the major parties' conventions and Election Day). Lastly, the candidate nominated from the brokered convention will be seen as weak and must overcome additional hurdles in a short time for the general election.

Especially on account of the desire to foster party unity in the months leading up to Election Day, it is considered possible if not probable that any "brokering" that may be required for a future presidential convention will actually take place in the weeks and months leading up to the convention, once it becomes clear that no candidate will likely secure a majority of delegates without an agreement with one or more rivals. Such an agreement would likely commit the front runner to make some form of concession(s) in return, such as selecting the former rival as his/her vice presidential nominee.

[edit] 2008 presidential election

This article or section contains information about a forthcoming election.
Content may change dramatically as the election approaches.

For the 2008 election there had been speculation that the Democratic Party's national convention might be brokered, or at least that the convention may commence without a presumptive nominee.^[8]

For the Democrats a brokered convention was considered possible. The only other candidate with pledged delegates is John Edwards, and with barely 0.5 percent of the total delegates, Edwards is unlikely to be able to use them for any significant leverage. In addition, under Democratic Party rules, delegates pledged to a candidate may not be mandated to vote for anyone other than that candidate, even if that candidate is no longer running for the nomination. Delegates pledged to John Edwards may not be mandated to vote for anyone other than Edwards.^[9] For the Democratic convention to be declared a brokered convention, with neither remaining candidate gaining a simple majority of votes at the first ballot, the vote would have to be very close, falling within the margin of Edwards' delegates, and whatever abstentions may occur. It was originally thought that a brokered convention may be more likely because the provisos given above do not consider the fact that Michigan and Florida's delegates were originally informed that they would not be allot to be seated; this turned out not to be the case, Michigan and Florida delegates will be seated in what was a compromise made by the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee. They will get 0.5 votes per delegate in what was a controversial compromise.

Superdelegate votes are counted in the first ballot. Although the term "brokered convention" is sometimes used to refer to a convention where the outcome is decided by superdelegate votes rather than pledged delegates alone, this is not the original sense of the term. During the week leading to the June 3 primaries, superdelegates began committing to Barack Obama, such that Obama was declared the presumptive nominee that evening, with pledged delegates from Montana and South Dakota. Hillary Clinton conceded on June 7, and the brokered convention will not occur for the 2008 Democratic Convention.

For the Republicans, a brokered convention was also forecasted because of the number of strong candidates and their different geographic bases. The number of "winner take all" states benefits candidates with strong regional support. In addition, the weakened power of President Bush to force candidates out of the race results in fewer levels of influence for them.^[10] ^[11] With John McCain winning the majority of delegates on Super Tuesday and the subsequent withdrawal of his strongest challenger, Mitt Romney, the brokered convention was averted.

[edit] Brokered conventions in popular culture

The movie The Best Man depicts the brokered convention of an unnamed political party, with two candidates vying for the support of a previous President.

In the last two episodes of season six of The West Wing, the Democratic party fought through a brokered convention, with dark horse candidate Matthew Santos (Jimmy Smits) eventually prevailing.