Barack Obama caucus and primary campaign
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[edit] Iowa
Obama won the first contest in the Democratic nomination season, the January 3, 2008 Iowa Democratic caucus. Obama had the support of 37.6% of Iowa's delegates, compared to 29.7% for John Edwards and 29.5% for Hillary Clinton.[1] In his remarks to his followers that evening, he said "But on this January night, at this defining moment in history, you have done what the cynics said we couldn't do."[2] He further noted that "our time for change has come" and suggested that in the future Americans will look back on the 2008 Iowa caucuses and say, "this is the moment when it all began."[3]
[edit] New Hampshire
Obama's win in Iowa was seen as a boost to his already-improving chances in New Hampshire. On January 4, he told supporters in New Hampshire, "If you give me the same chance that Iowa gave me last night I truly believe that I will be the president of the United States of America."[4] The campaign received another boost when former Senator and 2000 Democratic presidential candidate Bill Bradley endorsed Obama on January 6.[5] At the ABC News/WMUR-TV Democratic debate in Manchester on January 5, Obama, Clinton, and Edwards all battled over who best exemplified the buzzword of the campaign, "change".[6][7] In one key exchange, Clinton said, clearly targeting Obama's rhetorical prowess, "Making change is not about what you believe; it's not about a speech you make. ... We don't need to be raising false hopes."[7] Obama replied that "The truth is, actually, words do inspire. Words do help people get involved."[8]
Polling showed a tight race in the days leading up to the New Hampshire primary. All of the candidates barnstormed in New Hampshire during the four days after the Iowa caucuses, targeting undecided and independent voters in the state.[9] The day before the election, polls conducted by CNN/WMUR, Rasmussen Reports and USA Today/Gallup showed Obama jumping ahead by 9, 10 and 13 points respectively. Despite the apparent surge of momentum, Clinton defeated Obama by a margin of 39.1 percent to 36.5 percent in the New Hampshire primary on January 8, 2008.[10] Obama told supporters that he was "still fired up and ready to go", echoing a theme of his campaign.
In what has been deemed the "Yes We Can" speech, Obama acknowledged that he faced a fight for the nomination and that "nothing can stand in the way of the power of millions of voices calling for change."[11] The lyrics to the song in Yes We Can, an eponymous music video created by celebrity supporters of Obama, was entirely made up of pieces of this particular speech.
Meanwhile, Internet theories sprung up about how the vote counting itself had been suspect, due to discrepancies between machine-counted votes (which supported Clinton overall) and hand-counted votes (which supported Obama overall).[12] Fifth-place finisher Dennis Kucinich's campaign paid $25,000 to have a recount done of all Democratic ballots cast in the primary, saying "It is imperative that these questions be addressed in the interest of public confidence in the integrity of the election process and the election machinery." On January 16 the New Hampshire Secretary of State’s office began the recount. After recounting 23 percent of the state's democratic primary votes, the Secretary of State announced that no significant difference was found in any candidate's total, and that the oft-discussed discrepancy between hand-counted and machine-counted ballots was solely due to demographic factors.
[edit] Nevada
The Nevada Caucus took place on January 19. Obama received the endorsement of two very important unions in the state: the Culinary Workers Union (whose 60,000 members staff the casinos and resorts of Las Vegas and elsewhere) and the Nevada chapter of the SEIU. Clinton countered by appealing to the Hispanic vote in the state, emphasizing that they were at special risk from the fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis.
Prior to the caucus, comments made by Obama concerning former Republican president Ronald Reagan attracted rebuke from rivals and dissection from all sections of the media. Obama had stated in an interview that; "Ronald Reagan changed the trajectory of America in a way that Richard Nixon did not and in a way that Bill Clinton did not."[13] Hillary Clinton ridiculed the idea that the Republicans were the party of ideas, suggesting Mr. Obama had said that the Republicans had “better” ideas.[14] Senator John Edwards criticized Obama specifically for referring to Ronald Reagan as an agent of change stating in a newspaper interview that; “I would never use Ronald Reagan as an example of change.”[15]
One day after the Culinary Workers Union endorsed Obama, the Nevada State Education Association—a teachers' union that has not officially endorsed Clinton, but many of its top officials have—filed a lawsuit seeking to eliminate at-large caucus sites that had been setup in nine Las Vegas resorts saying they violated equal protection and one-person-one-vote requirements. The suit was viewed as a proxy legal battle between Clinton and Obama, as the caucus sites within the casinos would be primarily used by members of the CWU, who are more likely to vote for Obama. This led Obama to allege that the suit was filed in order to hurt his chances at the caucuses. "Some of the people who set up the rules apparently didn't think we'd be as competitive as we were and trying to change them last minute," he said.[16]
On January 17, a federal judge ruled that the casino at-large caucus plan could go ahead. This was seen as a win for Obama because of the Culinary Workers Union endorsement.[16] To further complicate matters, the major news and polling organizations decided to not do any polls before the Nevada caucuses, fearing the newness of the caucus, the transient nature of Nevada's population, and more fallout from their bad experience in New Hampshire.
Clinton finished first in the state delegate count on January 19, winning 51% of delegates to the state convention.[17] However, Obama was projected to win the Nevada national delegate count with 13 delegates to Clinton's 12, because the apportionment of some delegates are determined by Congressional District.[18] Delegates to the national convention were determined officially at the April 19 state convention. At the convention, one of Clinton's pledged delegates defected to Obama, giving Obama 14 delegates to Clinton's 11. [19]
On January 23, the Obama campaign filed an official letter of complaint with the Nevada Democratic Party charging the Clinton campaign with many violations of party rules during the caucuses, based upon 1,600 complaints they had received.[20] The Clinton camp said the Obama operation was "grasping at straws" and that they had their own complaints about Obama campaign actions during the caucuses.[20]
[edit] South Carolina
Rasmussen Reports released a poll January 7 showing that Obama led by 12 points, at 42% to Hillary Clinton's 30%. This was a substantial jump from December when the two were tied at 33%, and from November when Clinton led Obama by 10 points.[21]
Issues of race came to the forefront as campaigning began for the South Carolina primary, the first to feature a large African American portion in the Democratic electorate. First, Bill Clinton referred to Obama's claim that he has been a staunch opponent of the Iraq War from the beginning as a "fairy tale," which some thought was a characterization of Obama's entire campaign.[22] The former President called in to Al Sharpton's radio show to personally clarify that he respected and believed in Obama's viability.[22]
Around the same time, Hillary Clinton said regarding Martin Luther King, Jr. in an interview with Fox News, "I would point to the fact that that Dr. King's dream began to be realized when President Johnson passed the Civil Rights Act of 1964, when he was able to get through Congress something that President Kennedy was hopeful to do, the President before had not even tried, but it took a president to get it done. That dream became a reality, the power of that dream became real in people's lives because we had a president who said we are going to do it, and actually got it accomplished."[23] Some African-American leaders took this statement as a denigration of the accomplishments of King and the larger American civil rights movement.[22] Hillary Clinton proceeded to blame Obama for the controversy, claiming his campaign had fanned the flames, a charge which Obama dismissed as "ludicrous".[22] By shortly before, and during, a January 15 Democratic debate in Nevada, Clinton and Obama declared a truce on the matter, with both making reconciliatory statements about race, gender, and each other.[24] However, Clinton's support among African Americans was thought to be damaged,[24] with SUNY Albany's Debra Dickerson stating "The Clintons have to do something dramatic and symbolic to win back the trust of many African-Americans."[24]
In part the tension resulted from the historical coincidence of the first viable African American presidential candidate, and the first viable woman candidate, running against each other in the same nomination race.[25] One South Carolina pastor lamented that he had been waiting all his life for either "first" to happen, and said, "I really hate that they had to run at the same time in the same election. It just makes what should be a wonderful situation very stressful for folk like me. I never imagined you could have too much of a good thing."[26] The American Civil Rights Movement and feminism had a long intertwined history in the United States, often working in concert but sometimes opposed;[25] while the bitter 19th century split between Elizabeth Cady Stanton or Frederick Douglass illustrated the latter, the unified opposition to the Supreme Court nomination of Clarence Thomas had exemplified the former.[25] After the Clinton-Obama tension on this matter, one Democrat said, "After Iowa, Obama was the post-racial candidate who appealed to all of our better natures. Now he's a black politician and she's a woman. And it is back to politics as usual."[24]
The January 21 CNN/Congressional Black Caucus debate in Myrtle Beach was the most heated face-to-face meeting yet between the candidates,[27] reflecting apparent personal animosity.[28] Clinton criticized Obama for voting "present" on many occasions while in the Illinois legislature. "It's hard to have a straight up debate with you because you never take responsibility for any vote," she said. Obama explained that Illinois had a different system than Congress and that 'present' votes had a different function and use in the Illinois Senate.[29] Obama said that he was working to help unemployed workers in Chicago while Clinton was "a corporate lawyer sitting on the board at Wal-Mart."[30] He also took issue with statements made on the campaign trail by Bill Clinton, saying "I can't tell who I'm running against sometimes."[29] The confrontation was the most-watched primary season debate in cable television news history.[28]
On January 26, Obama won by a more than two-to-one margin over Clinton, gaining 55% of the vote to her 27% and Edwards' 18%.[31] In his victory speech that night, he said, "Tonight, the cynics who believed that what began in the snows of Iowa was just an illusion were told a different story by the good people of South Carolina."[31] Addressing the racial dust-up and the other campaign back-and-forths between himself and the Clintons, he said, "The choice in this election is not between regions or religions or genders. It's not about rich versus poor; young versus old; and it is not about black versus white. It's about the past versus the future."[31]
[edit] Florida and Michigan
The Florida and Michigan primaries were held on January 29th and 15th, respectively. However, the states were previously stripped of all its delegates to the national convention for breaking party rules by moving its primary to before February 5. All candidates abided by an agreement not to campaign in Florida, and all major candidates except for Hillary Clinton had removed their names from the Michigan ballot.[32] Nonetheless, Clinton celebrated the 'wins' and asserted that they gave her momentum heading to Super Tuesday. The Obama campaign said that Clinton was "basically trying to take a victory lap when there was no race."[32]
On May 31, 2008 the Democratic National Committee Rules and Bylaws Commission met to resolve questions surrounding the contentious Florida and Michigan primaries.[33] In the case of Florida, it was decided that the delegate distribution would be based on the primary results as they stood and the delegation would be seated in full, but with each delegate receiving half a vote. In the case of Michigan, the delegate distribution was based on an estimate that took into consideration factors such as the actual primary results, exiting polling, and surveys of voter preference among those who did not participate in the Michigan primary. The end result rewarded Senator Clinton with 69 delegates and Senator Obama 59. As with Florida, each delegate would be given a half vote.
[edit] Super Tuesday
Following his win in South Carolina, Obama received the endorsement of Caroline Kennedy, daughter of former President John F. Kennedy,[34] as well as Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy, the former President's brother.[35] Ted Kennedy's endorsement was considered "the biggest Democratic endorsement Obama could possibly get short of Bill Clinton or Al Gore".[36] In particular, it gave the possibility of improving Obama's support among unions, Hispanics, and traditional base Democrats, all demographics that Clinton had been stronger in to this point.[37] Obama won 13 of 22 states on Super Tuesday (February 5, 2008): Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, and Utah. His campaign claimed to have won more delegates.[38]
[edit] More February contests
On February 9, Obama won the Louisiana primary,[39] as well as caucuses in Nebraska[40] and Washington State.[41] He garnered 57% of the available delegates in Louisiana, and 68% in both Nebraska and Washington.[42] On the same day, he won caucuses in Virgin Islands with 92% of the popular vote.[43] The next day, Obama took the Maine caucuses amid what one senior Maine Democratic official called an "incredible" turnout.[44][45]
The "Potomac primary" took place on February 12. It included the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia. There were 168 delegates up for grabs in the three primaries.[46] Obama won all three, taking 75% of the popular vote in the District of Columbia, 60% in Maryland and 64% in Virginia. "Today, the change we seek swept through Chesapeake and over the Potomac," Obama said at a rally in Madison, Wisconsin that night.[47]
On February 18, Michelle Obama attracted criticism when during a campaign speech in Milwaukee, Wisconsin she said, "Let me tell you, for the first time in my adult life, I am really proud of my country. Not just because Barack is doing well, but I think people are hungry for change". Barack's response to the criticism was, "Statements like this are made and people try to take it out of context and make a great big deal out of it, and that isn't at all what she meant. What she meant was, this is the first time that she's been proud of the politics of America," he said. "Because she's pretty cynical about the political process, and with good reason, and she's not alone. But she has seen large numbers of people get involved in the process, and she's encouraged."[48]
Two more primaries followed on February 19: Wisconsin and Hawaii. Obama won both decisively, taking 58% of the vote in Wisconsin and 14 of the 20 available national delegates in Hawaii.[49] On February 21, Obama was announced as the winner of the week-long Democrats Abroad contest.[50]The Democratic presidential candidate defended himself and his wife February 24 against suggestions that they are insufficiently patriotic.[51]Barack Obama’s campaign accused Hillary Clinton’s team February 25 of circulating a photo of the Illinois senator donning traditional attire – clothing worn by area Muslims – as a goodwill gesture during an overseas trip.[52]Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton argued with each other over negative campaigning, health care and free trade February 26.[53] Obama and John McCain engaged in a pointed exchange over Al-Qaeda in Iraq on February 27.[54]
[edit] March primaries
Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were in a statistical dead heat in Texas, according to a poll released February 25, 2008.[55] During Obama's sweep of February's post-Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses, the March 4 primaries of Texas and Ohio became seen as a firewall for the Clinton campaign.[56] In early polls for these states, Clinton held double digit leads in polls for those states, but by the end of February Obama had started to erode Clinton's lead in her key demographics and her lead had been reduced to single digits in some polls.[56] In response to Obama's increases, Clinton's campaign began to increase their attacks on him, including an accusation of plagiarism due to similarities in Obama's campaign speeches and campaign speeches of Obama's campaign's national co-chair and Massachusetts governor, Deval Patrick, although Patrick specifically stated he told Obama to use it. During the February 21, CNN-Univision debate in Austin, Texas Obama responded to the accusation by saying, "The notion that I had plagiarized from somebody who's one of my national co-chairs, who gave me the line and suggested that I use it, I think is silly." Clinton received a round of boos from the crowd when she responded, "Lifting whole passages from someone else's speeches is not change you can believe in; it's change you can Xerox".[57]
On February 25, 2008, during the hotly contested primaries in Texas and Ohio, Obama appeared at rallies in both Cincinnati and - for the first time in his career - in Dayton, Ohio. The noontime audience at the Fifth Third Arena at the University of Cincinnati was estimated at 13,000. That evening, in Fairborn, just outside of Dayton, Obama spoke before a capacity audience estimated at over 11,000 at the Nutter Center, at Wright State University. Speaking for just under an hour, Obama charged the audience with an equal responsibility in "making things happen." According to the Dayton Daily News, "Sen. Barack Obama packed the Nutter Center like a rock star...painting himself as a man who will cut through petty partisanship and bring real change to Washington.".[58]
In Ohio, as part of the campaign's self proclaimed goal to knock on a million doors the weekend immediately before the primary, Governor Deval Patrick (D-Massachusetts)[59] and Governor Kathleen Sebelius (D-Kansas) spoke to Obama volunteers at volunteer rallies across the state on March 1 and 2, 2008.[60] Obama, who had won the eleven contests in February following Super Tuesday, claimed victory in the Vermont primary and the Texas Democratic caucuses, on March 4, 2008 but lost the primaries in Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island.[61]
On March 8, 2008, Barack Obama won the Wyoming caucus by nineteen points.[62] The Clinton camp continued to suggest that Obama would make a good Vice Presidential candidate for Clinton, and former President Bill Clinton made known his support of this as a "dream ticket" which would be an "almost unstoppable force".[63] On March 10, he flatly rejected such suggestions.[64] Obama noted that he, not Senator Clinton, held the lead in pledged delegates and that he had won more of the popular vote than Clinton. "I don't know how somebody who is in second place is offering the vice presidency to somebody who is in first place," he said.[65] He told supporters in Columbus, MS that Clinton's VP suggestion was an example of what he called "the old okey-doke", further stating that the Clinton camp was trying to "bamboozle" or "hoodwink" voters.[66] Obama wondered aloud why the Clinton campaign believed him competent for the Vice Presidency, but said he was "not ready" to be President.[67]
On March 11, 2008, Obama won the Mississippi primary.[68] There, Obama won approximately 90% of the black vote, compared to Clinton's 70% majority of white voters.[69] On March 11, 2008, David Axelrod demanded that Sen. Clinton sever ties with Geraldine Ferraro, a top Clinton fundraiser and 1984 Democratic vice-presidential nominee, who said publicly that Obama was a major presidential contender only because he is a black man.[70] Sen. Barack Obama widened his lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton in the overall delegate count when he was declared the winner of the March 4 Texas caucuses on March 12, 2008.[71]Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton would both statistically tie Republican John McCain in a general election matchup, according to a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released March 18, 2008.[72]The National Archives on March 19, 2008 released more than 11,000 pages of Sen. Hillary Clinton's schedule when she was first lady. Sen. Barack Obama's campaign had pushed for the documents' release, arguing that their review is necessary to make a full evaluation of Clinton's experience as first lady.[73] Barack Obama and his wife Michelle Obama released their tax returns from 2000 to 2006 on his campaign Web site March 26, 2008, and he challenged Sen. Hillary Clinton to release hers.[74]
New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, a former 2008 Democratic candidate, endorsed Obama on March 21. Prominent Hillary Clinton advisor James Carville pointed out that the endorsement came during the week before Easter and likened Richardson's endorsement to Judas Iscariot's biblical betrayal of Jesus Christ. Richardson had served as former President Bill Clinton's ambassador to the United Nations and Secretary of Energy. Amid controversy,[75] a Clinton spokesman said that he would apologize had he made the comment but Carville declined to do so, further calling Richardson's decision an "egregious act". Richardson responded by refusing to "get in the gutter" with Carville, and said that certain people around Clinton feel a "sense of entitlement to the presidency".[76]
On March 20, 2008, Obama gave a preview of his strategy in a potential general election campaign against Republican John McCain. Obama blasted McCain for backing tax cuts for the wealthy without corresponding spending cuts, and for his support of the Iraq war, which Obama blamed for high gasoline prices. "John McCain seems determined to carry out a third Bush term," Obama said. He added that McCain once opposed what Obama called the "irresponsible" Bush tax cuts, but now wants to make them permanent. He also asserted that McCain wants a "permanent occupation in Iraq".[77]
[edit] International leaks and passport issues
In February 2008, Ian Brodie (Chief of Staff in Stephen Harper's Prime Minister's Office) became the center of a political controversy when it was alleged in the Canadian press that he leaked a memo[78] tied to the American Democratic political primary. According to the memo, Barack Obama's economic advisor Austan Goolsbee had met with Canadian consular officials in Chicago and told them to disregard Obama's campaign rhetoric regarding the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), a charge the Obama campaign later denied. In Canada, the leak was seen as an attempt by Conservative Prime Minister Harper's office to harm Obama's political campaign and help Republican candidate John McCain.
Brodie, during the media lockup for the February 26, 2008 budget, stopped to chat with several journalists, and was surrounded by a group from CTV. The conversation turned to the pledges to renegotiate the North American free-trade agreement made by the two Democratic contenders, Obama and New York Senator Hillary Clinton. Brodie, apparently seeking to play down the potential impact on Canada, told the reporters the threat was not serious, and that someone from Clinton's campaign had even contacted Canadian diplomats to tell them not to worry because the NAFTA threats were mostly political posturing. The Canadian Press news agency quoted that source as saying that Brodie said that someone from Clinton's campaign called and was "telling the embassy to take it with a grain of salt."[79] The Clinton campaign denies it. "We flatly deny the report," says Clinton spokesperson Phil Singer. "We did not sanction nor would we ever sanction anyone to say any such a thing. We give the Canadian government blanket immunity to reveal the name of anyone in the Clinton campaign think they heard from."[80]
The story was followed by CTV's Washington bureau chief, Tom Clark, who reported that the Obama campaign, not the Clinton's, had reassured Canadian diplomats. Clark cited unnamed Canadian sources in his initial report. Media later reported the source as Canadian Ambassador Michael Wilson. There was no explanation last night for why Brodie was said to have referred to the Clinton campaign but the news report was about the Obama campaign. Robert Hurst, president of CTV News, declined to comment.[79]
The Prime Minister's communications director, Sandra Buckler, has said that Brodie "does not recall" discussing the issue. On March 4, 2008 Harper initially denied that Brodie was a source of the leak — but he appeared to be referring to a diplomatic memo that described the key conversation between an adviser to Obama and Canada's consul-general in Chicago, Georges Rioux. Harper did not appear to be distinguishing between the two leaks later in the day. Harper asked the top civil servant, Clerk of the Privy Council Kevin Lynch, to call in an internal security team, with the help of Foreign Affairs. Members of the opposition asserted that an internal inquiry is unlikely to look seriously at Harper's own high-level political aides and appointees, such as Brodie, or Michael Wilson, Canada's ambassador to Washington.[79]
On March 10, 2008 Canadian MP Navdeep Bains called on Canadian Ambassador to the United States Michael Wilson to step down as Canada's ambassador to Washington while the leaks that damaged Senator Barack Obama's presidential campaign are investigated. Wilson has publicly acknowledged that he spoke to CTV reporter Tom Clark who first reported the leaks before the story aired, but refused to discuss what was said. It now appears that Wilson, who was finance minister under former Canadian Conservative prime minister Brian Mulroney, took part in political leaks that damaged a Democratic presidential contender.[81]
There have been three separate incidents involving Barack Obama's State Department passport file since 2008 began; while the instances of unauthorized access have occurred over a three-month span, Obama was notified only on March 20, as upper levels of the State Department themselves, first became aware of the breaches.[82]On March 21, 2008, the United States Department of State revealed that Obama's passport file was improperly accessed three times in 2008. Three contract employees are accused in the wrongdoing. One, who works for The Analysis Corporation (TAC), accessed Obama and McCain's records, and was disciplined. The two other workers, who worked for Stanley Inc., each accessed Obama's file on separate occasions and were fired. An unauthorized access of Hillary Clinton's file was also made in mid-2007, but was considered a training error and unrelated to the other instances.[83] John O. Brennan, president and CEO of Analysis, is a consultant to the Barack Obama campaign and contributed $2,300 to the Obama campaign in January 2008. Brennan is a former senior CIA official and former interim director of the National Counterterrorism Center.[84] The chairman of Stanley Inc., Philip Nolan, is a Clinton supporter and contributor;[85] his company has had contracts with the United States Department of State since 1992 and was recently awarded a $570 million contract to continue providing support for passport processing. The State Department is focusing an internal inquiry on the TAC employee, but plans to question all three of the contractors who accessed the candidates' files.[86]
[edit] Pennsylvania
After Obama's win in Mississippi on March 11, 2008, the campaign turned its attention to Pennsylvania. Mid March polls by Rasmussen Reports,[87] Franklin & Marshall College,[88] Quinnipiac University[89] and Public Policy Polling[90] had Obama trailing Senator Clinton in Pennsylvania by 12 to 16 points.
Speaking about small-town Pennsylvania at a private April 6 fundraising event in Kentfield, CA, a small suburb of San Francisco located in neighboring Marin County, his remarks would be widely criticized after they were reported:
You go into these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing's replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton Administration, and the Bush Administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. And it's not surprising, then, they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.[91]
Hillary Clinton described the remarks as "elitist, out of touch and frankly patronizing".[92] Noting he had not chosen his words well, Obama subsequently explained his remarks, "Lately there has been a little typical sort of political flare-up, because I said something that everybody knows is true, which is that there are a whole bunch of folks in small towns in Pennsylvania, in towns right here in Indiana, in my hometown in Illinois, who are bitter."[93] Obama had addressed similar themes in a 2004 interview with Charlie Rose[94], and his strategists countered that Bill Clinton had made similar comments in 1991.[95]
Just hours prior Obama's remarks in San Francisco, he spoke in Silicon Valley at another private event, and expressed a much more nuanced understanding of the second amendment and rural America. He stated,
We need sensible gun laws. I just got back from Montana where just about everyone has guns. In that culture, fathers and sons bond over hunting. You can't take that away from rural America. But the inner city is different, and we should tighten the laws on gun purchases and close the loopholes in gun show sales to unscrupulous buyers. The gun control people and the right to bear arms people are talking past each other about disconnected topics.
That Obama's comments in San Francisco made wide media play but not the ones he spoke in Silicon Valley became a source of speculation about the media and its political coverage.[96]
On April 18, Obama spoke in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, to a crowd of 35,000, at that point the largest audience yet drawn during his campaign.[97][98] The next day, Obama conducted a whistle stop train tour from Philadelphia to Harrisburg.[99]
The last big event in the final week of the campaign was the April 16 debate on ABC-TV. Many pundits gave the edge to Hillary Clinton, though many were critical of Charles Gibson and George Stephanopoulos pressing on about Obama's associations.[100] Polls during the debate week showed the momentum that had cut Clinton's lead by half had stalled. Despite being outspent by three to one,[101] Clinton would win the April 22 primary election with 54.6% of the vote, a solid nine point margin over Obama's 45.4%.[102] [103][104] Although Clinton remained behind in delegates, the press soon ran cover stories about Obama's apparent trouble connecting with less educated whites and Catholics.[105][106]
[edit] Indiana and North Carolina
After Clinton's victory in Pennsylvania, the campaigns focused on the May 6 primaries in Indiana and North Carolina. 115 delegates were at stake in North Carolina,[107] and 72 in Indiana.[108] Polling suggested a close race in Indiana, while Obama enjoyed the advantage in North Carolina thanks in part to the state's large African-American population – a demographic from which Obama was receiving strong support throughout the primary season.[107] Indiana's demographic makeup appeared to favor Clinton, as the state was predominantly white, rural and culturally conservative. Clinton won states like Ohio and Pennsylvania largely because of just such a voter base. However, there were positive signs for Obama as well.
Obama got a boost in Indiana when the former head of the state's Democratic party, Joe Andrew, endorsed him. Andrew, a superdelegate, also previously served as the chairman of the Democratic National Committee from 1999-2001, a position he was appointed to by former President Bill Clinton. Andrew had come out behind Hillary Clinton's candidacy when she announced in 2007, and he explained that his defection to Obama was an attempt to end the protracted primary fight. He said that the Democrats were helping presumptive Republican nominee John McCain, and "doing his [McCain's] work for him".[109]
Obama won in North Carolina, capturing 56% of the vote, while Hillary Clinton finished with 42%, according to CNN.[110] The Indiana race was much closer than expected, with Clinton, winning a 51% to 49% victory.[111][112] These races were seen as Clinton's last chance to make a comeback in the nomination fight.[113] As the results came in, ABC political analyst and former top Bill Clinton aide George Stephanopolous declared the Democratic race "over", and NBC Washington Bureau Chief Tim Russert said, "We now know who the Democratic nominee will be."[114] The day after these primaries, it appeared that superdelegates and party leaders were beginning to coalesce around Obama. He added four superdelegate endorsements to Clinton's one, and former Democratic presidential candidate George McGovern switched his support from Clinton to Obama.[115]
[edit] West Virginia
In the days leading up to the May 13 West Virginia primary, Obama took the lead in committed superdelegates. He picked up seven endorsements from superdelegates the week after the May 6 primaries.[116] Clinton won West Virginia by a 41-percentage-point margin,[117] and told supporters that she was "more determined than ever to carry on in this campaign".[118]
[edit] Kentucky and Oregon
Obama continued to add to his superdelegate lead in the week before the May 20 Kentucky and Oregon primaries, and former Democratic candidate John Edwards endorsed him on May 14.[119][120] As Obama's chance at becoming the nominee increased, he decided to focus much of his attention on general election battleground states. He planned to watch the Kentucky and Oregon results in Iowa, and scheduled an appearance in Florida for later that week.[121]
While campaigning in Oregon, Obama drew a crowd of 75,000, his largest crowd of the campaign season.[122][123]
Obama won Oregon, 59% to Clinton's 41%, but lost Kentucky by a margin of 35%. Delegates accrued in these two contests gave him an absolute majority among pledged delegates.
[edit] Montana and South Dakota - wrapping up the nomination
After a Clinton victory on June 1 in the Puerto Rico primary,[124] only one more day of primaries remained. June 3 saw the final votes of the primary season in Montana, which Obama won by 58-40 percent, and South Dakota, which Clinton won by 55-45 percent. Throughout the course of the day, a flood of superdelegates endorsed Obama, putting him over the top in terms of delegates needed to clinch the nomination.[125]
On June 7, Clinton formally ended her candidacy and endorsed Obama, making him the party's presumptive nominee.[126]
[edit] Potential role of superdelegates
Following the February 12 primary, the potential role of superdelegates in deciding the Democratic nomination was heavily discussed. In particular, the possibility of one candidate gaining more pledged delegates from primary and caucus wins, but losing the nomination to the other due to the decisions of superdelegates, made some Democratic leaders uncomfortable. The Clinton camp, behind in pledged delegates, advocated that superdelegates exercise their own judgment in deciding which candidate to back, while the Obama camp, ahead in pledged delegates, advocated that superdelegates follow the will of the voters and back whichever candidate had the most pledged delegates.[127] Some party leaders, such as Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, argued for the latter interpretation,[128] while others such as Democratic National Committee chair Howard Dean argued for the former.[129] Dean also said party leaders would not force a deal, but "let the voters vote."[130]
African American superdelegates previously pledged to Clinton, found themselves under pressure to switch to supporting Obama's candidacy; one example being John Lewis, a noted civil rights leader, Selma marcher, US Representative from Georgia, and superdelegate, who formally switched endorsements to Obama on February 27, 2008;[131] Representative Jesse Jackson, Jr. suggested that those staying with Clinton might face Democratic primary challenges in the future.[132] MoveOn.org started an Internet petition to urge superdelegates to "let the voters decide between Clinton and Obama, then support the people's choice."[133][128]
While Clinton was viewed as having an institutional advantage in amassing superdelegates by virtue of her fifteen years of national prominence in party politics,[134] Obama had heavily outspent Clinton in previous contributions to superdelegates through their political action committees.[135]
Speculation that Barack Obama had amassed about fifty additional superdelegates, removing Clinton's final advantage in the race, was reported on the eve of the March 4 primaries and caucuses; with the Clinton victory in most of that night's contests, the Obama camp chose not to release those names as expected the following day.[136]
After Obama's large victory in North Carolina and close second in Indiana on May 6, he took the lead in committed superdelegates. The results in those two states made Obama the clear front-runner for the nomination, and he picked up endorsements from 26 superdelegates in the week following those primaries.[137][138][139]
Most have backed his new strategy as from the earliest days of his upstart campaign, Obama pledged to run a 50-state effort, vowing to move past the traditional partisan divide and expand the electoral map by appealing to independents and even Republicans. But few people, even in his own staff, thought he'd actually invest in every single state. As it turns out, Obama's phenomenal fundraising has allowed him to deliver on his bold promise and place campaign staff in every one of the 50 states, as his campaign announced it would Monday. The strategy could force McCain to defend Republican strongholds, may help those lonely Democratic candidates in so-called Red States and could further expand Obama's already massive volunteer and donor bases (indeed, the move was announced in a fundraising e-mail plea to donors).
[edit] Primary voting, delegate count, and voter demographics
| Candidate | Actual pledged delegates1 (3,253 of 3,409 total) |
Predicted pledged delegates2 (3,409 of 3,409 total) |
Estimated superdelegates2 (694 of 825 total) |
Estimated total delegates2 (4,103 of 4,234 total; 2,118 needed to win) |
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| Barack Obama | 1,661 | 1,763 | 438 | 2,201 | ||||
| Hillary Rodham Clinton | 1,592 | 1,640 | 256 | 1,896 | ||||
| John Edwards | - | 6 | - | 6 | ||||
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| Sources: 1 "Primary Season Election Results", The New York Times, (regularly updated). 2 "Election Center 2008 Primaries and Caucuses: Results: Democratic Scorecard", CNN, (regularly updated). |
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