Talk:Argument from ignorance

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Talk:Argument from ignorance/Archive 1

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[edit] Absence of Evidence is Evidence of Absence is NOT logically valid

Someone please stop saying that and editing it out. Absence of Evidence is NOT evidence of absence, but absence of evidence when evidence should be present is evidence of absence...that is the correct view--141.156.18.73 (talk) 21:30, 13 February 2008 (UTC)

Just to check, are you stating that if a preexisting condition - such as burden of proof on one side of an argument - applies, then absence of evidence is evidence of absence? e.g.
- Person A has been accused of crime X
- There is no evidence that A committed X
- Therefore, A did not commit X in the eyes of the law
Editus Reloaded (talk) 22:14, 25 March 2008 (UTC)
You're confusing the court of law with logic, in the court of the law something IS assumed to be false until proven true, not in logic, this is done to protect innocent people from being convicted in our court system--141.156.18.90 (talk) 15:21, 30 March 2008 (UTC)
I understand the discussion, I'm just using the law as an example of a logical process where some preexisting condition exists causing absence of evidence to represent evidence of absence. Ergo: if habeas corpus did not apply, trial would be a LOGICAL argument where each side would have to logically prove their case. Editus Reloaded (talk) 13:54, 20 April 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Simple solution to IP problem

Since the section is talking about laws and how the fallacy applies to legal decisions, instead of putting in the IP issue, put in an actual legal decision which many people can more easily grasp. Edited to do so, inserted "Michael Jackson" example. Many people could not imagine how he could have slept with young boys and not had sex with them, therefore assuming he must be guilty. However, the trial showed otherwise, because to argue "I can't imagine him NOT having done it" is, by definition, argument from lack of imagination. This example is shorter, more straightforward, and does not confuse the issue with the secondary arguments of Intellectual Property laws. user:xaa

[edit] Rebuttal from article

Removed this from the article text (an article should not contradict itself, and it was in the wrong place anyway, and would disrupt the presentation by following an irrelevent tangent):

Rebuttal;

It would be healthy (and only right), to note that since man can travel to the Arctic, man has weapons stronger and more lethal than a Polar Bears claws or jaws, that may be used to hunt, maim, or even kill a Polar Bear from great distances that man is indeed on occasion a predator of Polar Bears...Hence the Polar Bear needs the camouflage of white fur. This dents that example a wee bit. Except for the fact that man has not hunted polar bears long enough or in large enough numbers to warrant an evolutionary change. Polars bears are rarely hunted, and man is not a 'natural' predator or the polar bear.

[edit] Teleological Argument

I reverted out & deleted a poorly-written & reasoned example from Ohanian on the 14th of January. At first I considered merely correcting the grammar and rewriting the style, but I think the whole example is bad. That said, some form of reference might be reasonable. Any thoughts?

Before I say mine, should Argument from Ignorance & Argument from Lack of Imagination really be tied together as the same thing in the introduction? Argument from Ignorance, to me at least, assumes that all sides agree that X is unknown, and the fallacy is claiming that therefore explanation Y 'must' be false. Argument from Lack of Imagination would be more appropriately filed under the "From Personal Conviction" sides, as some explanation Y is proferred to X, which is rejected for irrelevant reasons.

Anyway, naive versions of the Teleological Argument for specific phonemena do nicely qualify for Argument from Lack of Imagination / Personal Conviction. However, for this to qualify, the conclusion must be exclusive. Saying "We don't know why lightning bolts happen, therefore it's Zeus" should only be an example of this fallacy if the person also rules out any future explanation and says that because this must be eternally unknown and unexplainable (lack of imagination), Zeus is the only possible explanation. Merely saying "God is in the gaps" does not necessarily deny that scientific explanations can also be right (Zeus changes the weather patterns?), and also allows a nice retreat into other gaps. If somebody can find a cite of an actual medieval or Renaissance philosopher saying that something unexplainable at the time must therefore be God and only God, that might work. Otherwise, we can just leave this out.

[edit] Significant changes to the article in March, 2006

FT2, thanks for the repeated help with edits recently, and for the very sensible re-sectioning.

I wanted to make a quick point about the Argument from personal incredulity: The most recent edit (the bulleted examples of argument from incredulity) is, I think, a further step in the right direction. However, as currently written it confuses the argument itself with the explanation of the argument for the reader-- that is, currently the bulleted examples do not accurately represent forms of the argument per se, but rather are part argument, part explanation of the argument. These need to be separated out. The bullets, if they are to be included, should highlight a typical form of the falacious argument itself, and the explanation needs to be separate from the bulleted example.

Another approach could be used too, which is already used in the Examples section. There, examples of the argument are given, with explanations of the fallacy in parenthesis.

Incidentally, FT2, superb work on the TA article! Kudos to you... Kenosis 16:12, 18 March 2006 (UTC)

FT2, you also raised an interesting issue about the difference between not being aware of evidence and not having evidence. It's a potential quagmire that I think should be included only very carefully, and I think definitely not in any example of the argument itself-- e.g., do we mean unaware (ignorant) of the entire body of scientific evidence to date?, unaware of the current consensus and summaries on an issue of inquiry?, unaware of someone's most recent proposed explanation just published?, is the most recent proposed explanation verifiable and useful to other scientists?, etc, etc....Kenosis 16:42, 18 March 2006 (UTC)


What a tricky question!! I am going to have a stab at it. Forgive me if this is crass and poor quality by competent standards.

(And thanks for the compliment. Can you have a stab at the bullets for a bit? I want to think and see how you see it, your last edits were good ones too)

I think its more along the lines of, arguing on the basis that ignorance is factual, as opposed to ignorance being lack of knowledge. So for example, this is my understanding of a slippery divide where one can read it strictly or not:

  • If I argue that Fermat's Last Theorem can't (currently) be proven, because I'm unaware of latest research, and I state that because we haven't yet proven the Taniyama-Shimura conjecture or any equivalent result FLT is presently unprovable, that's ignorance. But my claim clearly states it is a belief, and conditional upon a reason which I leave open to others to judge.
  • If I state that it can't be proven, or no alternatives exist, I am stating this as a statement that has truth-value, at that point I've slipped into argument from ignorance. I am asserting that because a specific person at a specific time in a specific life cannot prove it (or has an opinion that it cannot be true), therefore it cannot be proven at all, and/or is untrue for all people, all times, all lives.

So I think its 3 things that makes it a fallacy: the generalization (personal opinion --> universal truth), the absoluteness rather than conditionality (its true if --> its true), and the failure to neutrally appraise evidence held. The point where it slips from "I think that [X], because [to the best of my knowledge (Y)]" to "[X] is a fact because [obvious to me (Y')]"

In this sense, argument from ignorance is like the term "theory", I suppose..... every argument unless very carefully specified, is capable of being found "ignorant" tomorrow. So "[Blah], therefore [fact:] the earth goes round the sun", if [Blah] later turns out an assumption, is technically also an argument from ignorance, even though the present evidence is vast and we have no credible reason to disbelieve it. Since we are discussing an argument in logic, rather than an argument in everyday commonsense and rhetoric, a strict reading is probably not inappropriate, where we say "only what is logical is correct to assert".

I don't know if this is utterly right, or valid, or even "original research", but maybe in it there is something that will help us identify in academic and logic texts, what exactly we need to bring into the article to clarify it better.

Of course even if it is, the examples may not show this as well as they could.... FT2 (Talk) 22:07, 18 March 2006 (UTC)

Hi FT2. Please see [1], which describes the point I was trying to make before that the Argument has both a positive and a negative construction. The adage "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" only illustrates the negative construction...Kenosis 22:36, 18 March 2006 (UTC)
Kenosis -- really reallynice edits. I think you've captured it much better than it was, for the first time this article really starts to feel encyclopedic as well as "just capturing information". Very neat work this time round. FT2 (Talk) 22:08, 19 March 2006 (UTC)
Thanks FT2. I hope this gets the article much closer to stable, and thanks for your help. I felt it was really important because of the relationship to the intelligent design controversy, where so many people get confused about what the arguments are. I also appreciate our conversation here...Kenosis 05:52, 21 March 2006 (UTC)

I still think it's nice to actually have that sense of working with someone here, in that way. Many thanks, and yes, close to stable now, sort of :) Nice work :) FT2 (Talk) 18:06, 21 March 2006 (UTC)

[edit] You can't prove your views, so don't argue with me!"

  1. This has to do with personal desiscion, not nessesarily logic, due to the "don't argue with me". That is a choice on the person making the argument, absurd as it may sound.
  2. Not being able to prove your views doesn't mean your wrong, but doesn't mean you're right.
  3. This example may have alternate views, but is taken out of context. If one is making a claim and and the other states this, it is a rational statement.
  4. If one is making a claim and they state this, its irrational, because the burden of "proof" is up to them.

This isn't an example of argument from ignorance. Somerset219 00:42, 10 August 2006 (UTC)

If someone tried to begin an argument with me based on their belief that the tooth fairy really did exist, then I could imagine myself saying something similar, though it would be more along the lines of "This will lead nowhere productive, so dont waste my time".

it's a really bad example.--87.65.181.203 20:24, 13 November 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Fallacies fallaciously promoted as valid

Argumentum ad ignorantiam is "the fallacy that a proposition is true simply on the basis that it has not been proved false or that it is false simply because it has not been proved true." This is pretty clear and well established. Most of this article has nothing to do with that, but is instead thinly veiled attempts to promote an agenda, for example much of the examples section. Xj 08:44, 2 November 2006 (UTC)

[edit] "No one saw X, so how can we know X actually happened?"

this is not an argument from ignorance. it's not arguing anything, it's a legitimate question. "No one saw X happen, so x cannot/has not happened" would be an argument from ignorance.--87.65.144.52 15:58, 11 November 2006 (UTC)

Right, I'm changing it then.--87.65.181.203 16:50, 12 November 2006 (UTC)


[edit] arguing atheism

I am adding a point here, though its clear this is contentious from the talk page it seems to me that by adding a theistic argument from ignorance you have to add an atheistic argument from ignorance it is impossible for God\supernatural to exist, because we have no physical evidence for it this seems like a clear argument from ignorance. It is not stating what is more likely, whether we evolved or were created or by whom or anything else, it only states that the solid belief, without any room for doubt that a supernatural being of any type could not under any circumstances exist, as a fact. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by Colin 8 (talk • contribs) 21:20, 7 December 2006 (UTC).

I forgot to add my signature to that last edit "arguing atheism" sorry, its --Colin 8 21:21, 7 December 2006 (UTC)

I've removed this:
It is impossible under any circumstances for God/supernatural being to exist because their is no evidence to prove it. An argument made by atheist's to prove that a supernatural deity could not exist
because atheists don't make this claim. The currently popular atheist tract, Richard Dawkins's The God Delusion, titles the relevant chapter "Why There Almost Certainly Is No God", not "Why There Is No God". Atheists have made the point in innumerable ways, via the Celestial Teapot, Flying Spaghetti Monster, Invisible Pink Unicorn and others, that there are plenty of things we can't disprove, and that while we may technically have to remain agnostics, in practice "we are all teapot-atheists", as Dawkins puts it. grendel|khan 17:49, 12 December 2006 (UTC)
This is patently false. Many atheists make this claim. Perhaps not all do, but many. And Bertrand Russell was the originator of the "teapot-atheist" phrase. --BlarghHgralb 23:14, 18 June 2007 (UTC)
Who are these "many"? Please point to someone with a bare minimum of stature rather than some dude on Youtube. If the burden of evidence is "someone somewhere once said it", you're going to naturally get a heap of fallacies. grendel|khan 03:38, 3 April 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Suggest removing example that discusses exist/non-exist of God unless it is referenced.

This argument example was added by IP back in mid-November. It's been swapped around recently. It is stated without evidence (either way). I suggest it is boldy removed as it will simply attract edit-"lint" unless who ever wants it in there can clearly show examples of the use and the cite/ref must be notable.
version a) - from one POV,

  • "God exists, because science is incapable at this time to prove that he does not exist." A common argument used by Theists to disprove the claims of non theists that a supernatural diety does not actually exist.

version b) - from the flip POV,

  • "God does not exist, because science is incapable at this time of proving that he does exist." A common argument used by nontheists to disprove the claims of theists that a supernatural deity does exist.

I vote it is culled as we could stick any fantasy "x" figure in there e.g. fairies, FSM, teapots, any of the god or gods invented since the dawn of time such as the Christian one or Allah etc, and then have the usual revert wars. Ttiotsw 09:06, 16 December 2006 (UTC)

Today I'm bold - I've culled it. See history if you want it back. Ttiotsw 09:13, 16 December 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Suggest removing example on Sun age estimate

Nice article. I find this example incorrect but leave the edition to those active on this page. In the example under a false hypothesis ("if the sun energy come from a burning process") a false conclusion was reached (million instead of billions of years). However, the logic is correct. This is not an argument from ignorance. 83.250.248.45 00:56, 9 January 2007 (UTC) Luis


[edit] Every statement is wrong - including this article

I just happened to read this article and there is something fundamentally wrong with it. It is a basic theory of statistics that you can be certain of something by not finding any evidence. E.g. in a factory, they will sample TVs are prove that they are at least 90% confident that less than 0.1% of TVs will break down within the guarantee period by not finding a certain number of TVs that break down in a sample".

I quote: "Because there appears to be a lack of evidence for one hypothesis, another chosen hypothesis is therefore considered proven".

A lack of evidence for a systemic failure on a production is ABSOLUTE proof that a certain degree of confidence is stastically possible of the number of failures. IT IS ABSOLUTE, because it matters no a bit what the actual level of failure is, the statement about confidence in the level of defects is a formula dependant only on the number of units found not to have an evidence of failure! (FOr info lookup quality control and statistical sampling)

Another fallacy of the article is the assumption that one cannot exclude outcomes that are unreasonable. Let us say, you flip a coin, you are told it has not landed on the heads side, and it has not landed on the edge. Now it is reasonable to say it has landed on the tails side, but as the article is written, it is possible to introduce any number of "alternatives" such as "it is floating in a black hole", it has transmutated into an elephant and has landed on its trunk.

Logic is based on the premise that people won't talk patent nonsense, and therefore it is quite plausible to argue that you don't believe a coin will turn into an elephant and land on its trunk and so dismiss this possible outcome. Otherwise, you may as well all go home - because it is impossible to conclude anything. TIME FOR THE PUB! 88.109.77.5 10:34, 8 February 2007 (UTC)

Let us see whether this article fails WP:Bollocks. First assume it does, we are therefore required to find evidence that it doesn't - I have a very fertile imagination - for any argument you can bring I accuse you of a lack of imagination to conceive of why you are wrong. Therefore you cannot prove it does not fail WP:Bollocks therefore QED it does - to which you will of course accuse me of a lack of imagination ..... and we have the normal Wikipedia nonsense! It's a load of WP:bollocks! 88.109.77.5 10:56, 8 February 2007 (UTC)


I agree with 88.109.77.5 wholeheartedly. It is impossible to say that one theory is correct because of a lack of evidence in a competing theory. Besides that, to me, God is a more outrageous solution than Evolution. One can not sensibly think that the Intellegent Design hypothesis (or Creationism if you perfer) is a simpler solution than Evolution, which is based on the observable particulars of life and the universe. I believe Dawkins best explains this when he speaks of the God of Gaps. Or, in other words, a God which exists only in the gaps of human knowledge.

JustinInSpace 16:32, 27 February 2007 (UTC)


It would seem that when a new phenomena is discovered, it should immediately be described as "unexplained" and should not be assumed to be a supernatural event. As of yet, there are no repeatable steps one can take to show the existence of supernatural phenomena. Once one has repeatable steps to create an unexplained event the discovery process has always led to the phenomena being explained as natural. One might conclude without a clear path to show that supernatural phenomena are extant, that the topic becomes meaningless, without merit. The point of this being that in an absence of an explanation, working towards an explanation in nature should be the default, as opposed to attributing events to a "higher being". —Preceding unsigned comment added by 209.197.144.252 (talk) 01:23, 5 April 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Bayes's Theorem

Need to connect this article with probability (which may not be strict logic, but which Jaynes did call "the logic of science"). In reality all evidence is uncertain, and the absence of evidence does provide information. If you visit 10 lakes and in each of the first 9 catch hundreds of fish, but catch none in the 10th, you would be right to increase your confidence that the first 9 contain fish and the 10th doesn't, even though the possibility exists that there are fish in the 10th that didn't bite. (Note that the treatment of the first 9 is probabilistic too: the possibility also exists that those lakes don't contain any more fish because you just removed the last.)

[edit] Examples

The examples cited repeat the same point over and over again without adding anything new. The only good examples in this section are the one about the age of the solar system and the one about polar bears. The others should be cut. I'm willing to do this myself unless someone argues for their retention. Le poulet noir 15:48, 27 May 2007 (UTC)

I'm reading this for the first time in April 2008 and agree with the above statement. It appears as if the article has had multiple authors, each wanting to explain the same thing in their own words as if this would improve upon the existing explanations. --220.235.141.51 (talk) 11:53, 20 April 2008 (UTC)

[edit] Argument from personal incredulity

This section is unclear, contradictory and longer than it needs to be.

1) There is no need for the two common versions of the argument. Argument from personal incredulity is simply asserting that something must be true because the alternatives defy the imagination of the speaker and, by extension, all reasonable people.

2) Argument from personal incredulity and argumentum ad populum are two different things.

3) The entry states that argument from personal incredulity is the same as argument from ignorance only if "the person making the argument has solely their particular personal belief... as evidence that the alternative scenario is true". It then states that "quite commonly, the argument from personal incredulity is used in combination with some evidence in an attempt to sway opinion". There is an obvious contradiction here. Either the speaker is relying solely on his lack of imagination or he is not.

4) Without wanting to open a can of worms, I suggest that the label of argument of personal incredulity is commonly used by evolutionary theorists to describe arguments put forward by supporters of intelligent design. I don't think proponents of intelligent design would dispute that one of the attractions of their theory is that it is easier to imagine that the complexity of the natural world is caused by an intelligent force than a series of disjointed processes.

I'm happy to rewrite if no one objects. Le poulet noir 17:01, 30 May 2007 (UTC)

[edit] Michael Jackson

Is it necessary to present the reader with an example of an argument relating to Jackson's abuse charges? The Fifth Amendment prevents double-jeopardy, so an acquitted man cannot (in law) be guilty <cough>O.J. Simpson</cough>. Editus Reloaded 22:30, 31 August 2007 (UTC)

I agree. I was shocked to read about an example of 'argument from ignorance' using Michael Jackson. This is surely inappropriate in any encyclopedia. Mwlin1 15:10, 27 September 2007 (UTC)
frankly, i think the general tone of the article is haughty and presumptuous; and whatever might be my personal opinion on MJ, i aqree wholeheartedly on that particular note as well. i, for one, will change what i can when i can - i tend to chip away rather than go whole hog. Metanoid (talk, email) 03:41, 19 October 2007 (UTC)

[edit] punk eek

just stumbling through, then my eye caught the article's mention of punctuated equilibrium as an example of a gap in evidence. i don't think that's right (see the archive at, e.g., the www.talkorigins.org archive, for sources). discussion? —Preceding unsigned comment added by Metanoid (talk • contribs) 03:37, 15 October 2007 (UTC)

removed it. Metanoid (talk, email) 03:42, 19 October 2007 (UTC)