40th Canadian federal election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This article or section contains information about a forthcoming election. Content may change dramatically as the election approaches.

40th Canadian general election
Election date:	Writs issued:
On or before October 19, 2009	TBD
Campaign period:	Seats contested:
TBD	308
Incumbent:
Conservative minority
Result:
TBD
Registered parties:
Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party Bloc Québécois Canadian Action Party Christian Heritage Party of Canada Communist Party of Canada Conservative Party of Canada First Peoples National Party Green Party of Canada Liberal Party of Canada Libertarian Party of Canada Marijuana Party of Canada Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada neorhino.ca New Democratic Party People's Political Power of Canada Progressive Canadian Party Western Block Party
Elections Canada Website
Canadian general elections

Barring war, insurrection, or an earlier dissolution of Parliament, the 40th Canadian federal election will be held October 19, 2009, in accordance with the provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which were amended in the 1st Session of the 39th Parliament. In the past, the Prime Minister could select an election date of his or her choosing, usually at the four-year mark or when he or she believed that his or her party had the best chance of winning the election. However, in 2007 the Parliament of Canada passed a law fixing federal election dates every four years and scheduling the next election date as October 19, 2009. As the current parliament is led by a minority government, it is possible that an election will occur sooner, in 2008 or earlier in 2009, as the opposition parties can still bring down the government on a vote of confidence.

[edit] 2006 election

More than 65% of all eligible voters cast ballots in the 39th Canadian general election. The Conservative Party received the most votes, with 36% of the vote and 124 seats (now 126). The Liberal Party won 103 seats (now 96), taking 30% of the vote. The Bloc Québécois lost three seats, lowering its total to 51 seats (now 49), with 10.5% of the vote. The New Democratic Party retained its seats held at the dissolution of Parliament, and won 11 more, making its total 29 seats (now 30), with 17.5% of the vote. The Green Party received 4.5% of the vote, a minimal increase from the previous election, but did not win any seats. Independents and other parties constituted 1% of the total vote.

[edit] Events since the 2006 election

Since the election, David Emerson and Wajid Khan, who were both elected as Liberal Members of Parliament (MPs), have joined the Conservative Party, while Garth Turner, elected as a Conservative, was expelled from the Conservative caucus. Turner initially sat as an independent, but then joined the Liberal caucus on February 6, 2007. Joe Comuzzi, also elected as a Liberal, was expelled from the Liberal Caucus for supporting the Budget in 2007.^[1] Joe Comuzzi has since joined the Conservative Party of Canada. There were also by-elections in Repentigny and London North Centre after the death of Benoît Sauvageau and resignation of Joe Fontana. Both by-elections reelected a member from the incumbent party.

Canadians' next chance to go to the polls will be Canada's 40th federal election. Harper's government could formally last until late 2009, although an election may be triggered in 2008 if the government falls on a motion of confidence.

The parliament preceding this election is led by the smallest minority ever in the Canadian House of Commons — a government with just 40.6% of the seats — and led by the Conservative Party of Canada. Although the average length of a minority parliament in Canada is 1 year, 5 months, and 22 days, minorities led by the former Progressive Conservative Party tended to be much shorter: the longest previous Conservative minority was just 6 months and 19 days.^[2] The 39th Parliament became Canada's longest serving Conservative minority on October 24, 2006.

On May 30, 2006, the Conservatives tabled Bill C-16 which would amend the Canada Elections Act which would provide for fixed elections. The bill states that there will be an election in 2009, and it would be the first to have a fixed election date, the third Monday in October (October 19, 2009). However, the government may still fall before then, and there may be an election still in 2008. The bill received royal assent on May 3, 2007.

It was rumoured by political pundits that Harper would like to have had an election in early 2007 in hopes of attaining a majority of the Commons seats. However, it was also speculated that he would hold off calling an election until after Quebec held its provincial election, so as to measure the strength of federalist feelings in that province.

On February 15, 2007, the Globe and Mail reported that the Conservatives were preparing for an election expected to be called shortly after the 2007 budget, due on March 19, 2007. Part of the reason for the timing of the election was given as strengthening Conservative poll numbers coupled with the desire to take advantage of the perception that Harper has "better leadership qualities than Liberal counterpart Stéphane Dion".^[3]

On March 17, 2007, an internal Conservative Party memo was leaked to the Canadian Press, telling members that they "need to be ready to campaign within the next week." The memo asked members to donate $75 to $150 to help to fund the early stages of the election campaign.

None of these predictions for a federal election to occur in 2007 proved true, but the majority of pundits still believe a federal election will be triggered before the fixed election date of October 19, 2009 for sometime in 2008.

[edit] Timeline

• February 6, 2006: Harper Cabinet is sworn in. Liberal David Emerson crosses the floor to join the new government thus changing the standings in the Canadian House of Commons to Conservatives 125, Liberals 102, BQ 51, NDP 29, Independent 1. This has the potential to be very relevant in terms of numbers, as it allows a Conservative-NDP voting block to command a majority.
• February 19, 2006: Bloc Québécois House Leader Michel Gauthier announces that his party will vote to keep the government in office for a "good while".^[4] So long as the Bloc votes with the government on confidence measures, they will pass.
• April 3, 2006: Peter Milliken is re-elected Speaker of the Canadian House of Commons becoming only the third Opposition MP to serve as Speaker. The Speaker only votes in the event of a tie and then must vote to support the "status quo". The election of a Liberal Speaker effectively gives the Conservatives an additional cushion by denying the Liberals a vote. Numerically, the Conservatives can now pass legislation and win motions of confidence with the support of any one Opposition party, i.e., the Conservatives and the NDP combined have enough seats to win a vote, as they do combined with BQ or the Liberals (assuming all MPs are present and vote without any defections).
• August 28, 2006: Bloc Member of Parliament Benoît Sauvageau (Repentigny) dies in a car accident.
• September 20, 2006: Liberal MP for London North Centre Joe Fontana resigns to run for mayor of London, Ontario.
• October 18, 2006: Conservative MP for Halton Garth Turner is suspended from the Conservative Party. He sits as an Independent.
• November 21, 2006: Public Works Minister Michael Fortier, a Senator, announces he will run for the House of Commons in this election in the riding of Vaudreuil-Soulanges.
• November 27, 2006: By-elections in London North Centre and Repentigny result in holds for the Liberals and Bloc, respectively. The Green Party comes second in London North Centre.
• December 2, 2006: Stéphane Dion wins the Liberal Party leadership at the Liberal Party leadership convention.
• December 12, 2006: The Bloc threatens to introduce a non-confidence motion over Canada's role in the invasion of Afghanistan in the new year
• December 14, 2006: Liberal leader Stéphane Dion says that the Liberals are "preparing" for a spring election.
• December 19, 2006: Liberal leader Stéphane Dion appoints Scott Brison and Bob Rae as co-chairs of his party's election platform committee and Gerard Kennedy as advisor for election readiness and renewal.
• January 5, 2007: Liberal MP Wajid Khan crosses the floor to join the Conservatives to retain his position as special advisor to the Prime Minister for the Middle East and Afghanistan.^[5]
• January 11, 2007: Liberal MP Jean Lapierre announces that he will resign his seat of Outremont before the end of the month, which he does on January 28, 2007.
• February 6, 2007: Independent MP Garth Turner joins the Liberal Party.
• February 14, 2007: The House of Commons passes third reading on a Private Member's Bill by Liberal MP Pablo Rodriguez committing the Government to meet Canada's Kyoto Protocol commitments by 2012.
• February 21, 2007: Bloc Québécois MP Yvan Loubier resigns his seat of Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot to run in the Quebec Provincial Election.
• March 21, 2007: Liberal MP Joe Comuzzi is expelled from the caucus for supporting the Conservative Budget.
• April 12, 2007: Bloc Québécois MP Louise Thibault leaves the Bloc Québécois to sit as an Independent, citing dissatisfaction with Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe as her reason for leaving.
• April 12, 2007: Liberal and Green Party leaders Stéphane Dion and Elizabeth May agree not to run candidates against each other in the upcoming election. The Liberals will not run a candidate in Central Nova and the Greens will not run a candidate in Saint-Laurent—Cartierville.
• May 3, 2007: Bill C-16 receives Royal Assent. This bill states that the next election must be held on October 19, 2009, unless there is an earlier dissolution.
• June 5, 2007: Bill Casey, the longest-serving member within the Conservative caucus, is expelled for voting against the budget. He now sits as an independent member.
• June 26, 2007: Independent MP Joe Comuzzi joins the Conservative Party.^[6]
• July 2, 2007: Liberal MP Bill Graham resigns his seat of Toronto Centre
• July 12, 2007: Liberal MP Jim Peterson resigns his seat, as he previously announced in June.
• July 27, 2007: Liberal MP Stephen Owen resigns his seat to accept an academic position.
• July 28, 2007: By-elections are called to be held in the vacant seats of Outremont and Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot on September 17.
• July 29, 2007: Bloc Québécois MP Michel Gauthier resigns his seat.
• August 11, 2007: By-election is called to be held in the vacant seat of Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean on September 17.
• August 16, 2007: New political party Neorhino.ca is officially recognized by Elections Canada.
• August 31, 2007: First-term Liberal MP Gary Merasty resigns his seat.
• September 17, 2007: By-elections held in three ridings. The Conservatives, Bloc, and NDP each win one. The NDP's Thomas Mulcair becomes only the second MP for that party ever elected in Quebec.
• October 28, 2007: Liberal MP Blair Wilson resigns from the national caucus. He will sit as an independent, styling himself a "non-caucus Liberal".
• November 23, 2007: Conservative MP Wajid Khan resigns from the national caucus. He will sit as an Independent MP.
• December 2, 2007: Liberal leader Dion announces he will be seeking a spring 2008 election, possibly before the budget.^[7]
• January 25, 2008: Liberal MP Lucienne Robillard resigns her seat.
• February 2, 2008: Wajid Khan readmitted into Conservative Caucus.
• March 13, 2008: Bloc Québécois MP Maka Kotto resigns his seat.
• March 17, 2008: Four by-elections held. Liberals retain three seats, but lost one to the Conservatives.
• April 7, 2008: Liberal MP Brenda Chamberlain resigns her seat.
• May 25, 2008: Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Maxime Bernier resigned Sunday (May 25) over an alleged security breach. Trade Minister David Emerson has been appointed to assume Bernier’s duties.

[edit] Results

v • d • e

Summary of the 40th Canadian House of Commons election results

Party Party leader Candidates[8] Seats Popular vote 2006 Current 40th Change # % Change      Conservative Party of Canada Stephen Harper 245 (as of March 23, 2008) 124 127      Liberal Party of Canada Stéphane Dion 215 (as of March 23, 2008) 103 96      Bloc Québécois Gilles Duceppe 58 (as of March 23, 2008) 51 48      New Democratic Party Jack Layton 166 (as of March 23, 2008) 29 30      Green Party of Canada Elizabeth May 133 (as of May 31, 2008)      Christian Heritage Party of Canada Ron Gray 14 (as of December 14, 2007)      Progressive Canadian Party Sinclair Stevens 2 (as of April 24, 2008)      Communist Party of Canada (Marxist-Leninist) Sandra L. Smith      Marijuana Party of Canada Blair Longley 1 (as of June 4, 2008)      Canadian Action Party Connie Fogal 33 (as of June 3, 2008)      Communist Party of Canada Miguel Figueroa      Libertarian Party of Canada Dennis Young 43 (as of April 27, 2008)      First Peoples National Party of Canada Barbara Wardlaw      Western Block Party Doug Christie      Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party Liz White 1 (as of April 26, 2008)      People's Political Power Roger Poisson      Neorhino.ca Richelle Cloutier 31 (as of March 12, 2008)      Work Less Party Conrad Schmidt      Newfoundland and Labrador First Party Thomas V. Hickey      Independents and no affiliation 1 4      Vacant 3   Total 308 308 Source: Elections Canada

[edit] Target seats

The following is a list of ridings which were narrowly lost by the indicated party. For instance, under the Liberal column are the 15 seats in which they came closest to winning but did not. Listed is the name of the riding, followed by the party which was victorious (in parentheses) and the margin, in terms of percentage of the vote, by which the party lost.

These ridings are likely to be targeted by the specified party because the party lost them by a very slim margin in the 2006 election.

Up to 15 are shown, with a maximum margin of victory of 15%.

* Indicates incumbent not running again. To clarify further; this is a list of federal election winners with their party in parentheses, and their margin as a percentage of the vote over the party whose list the seat is on (not the same as the margin of victory if the party potentially "targeting" the seat in that list did not finish second in the previous election).

Conservative	Liberal
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, SK (Lib) 0.3%* Brant, ON (Lib) 0.9% West Nova, NS (Lib) 1.1% Vancouver Island North, BC (NDP) 1.1% Oakville, ON (Lib) 1.3% West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country, BC (Lib) 1.5% London West, ON (Lib) 2.2% Madawaska—Restigouche, NB (Lib) 2.4% Newton—North Delta, BC (Lib) 3.6% Saint Boniface, MB (Lib) 3.6% Saint John, NB (Lib) 3.6% Mississauga South, ON (Lib) 4.1% Richmond, BC (Lib) 4.1% Random—Burin—St. George's, NL (Lib) 4.7% Kenora, ON (Lib) 5.5%	Parry Sound—Muskoka, ON (Con) <0.1% Winnipeg South, MB (Con) 0.3% Glengarry—Prescott—Russell, ON (Con) 0.4% Tobique—Mactaquac, NB (Con) 0.9% St. Catharines, ON (Con) 1.1% Ahuntsic, QC (BQ) 1.7% Fleetwood—Port Kells, BC (Con) 1.9% London—Fanshawe, ON (NDP) 1.9% Ottawa—Orléans, ON (Con) 2.0% Simcoe North, ON (Con) 2.0% Brossard—La Prairie, QC (BQ) 2.2% Papineau, QC (BQ) 2.2% Burnaby—Douglas, BC (NDP) 2.6% Barrie, ON (Con) 2.7% Kitchener—Conestoga, ON (Con) 2.7%
Bloc Québécois	New Democratic
Louis-Hébert, QC (Con) 0.4% Beauport—Limoilou, QC (Con) 1.6% Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles, QC (Con) 2.7% Hull—Aylmer, QC (Lib) 3.3% Honoré-Mercier, QC (Lib) 3.8% Pontiac, QC (Con) 5.0% Laval—Les Îles, QC (Lib) 6.1% Outremont, QC (Lib) 6.3%¹ Bourassa, QC (Lib) 11.4% Jonquière—Alma, QC (Con) 12.8% Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier, QC (Ind) 13.9%	Thunder Bay—Superior North, ON (Lib) 1.0% Newton—North Delta, BC (Lib) 1.6% Thunder Bay—Rainy River, ON (Lib) 1.7% Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing, ON (Lib) 3.7% Nickel Belt, ON (Lib) 4.6%* Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca, BC (Lib) 4.6% Welland, ON (Lib) 4.8% Oshawa, ON (Con) 5.2% Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge—Mission, BC (Con) 5.2% Beaches—East York, ON (Lib) 5.4% Kenora, ON (Lib) 5.7% Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar, SK (Con) 6.5%* Central Nova, NS (Con) 7.8% South Shore—St. Margaret's, NS (Con) 8.3% Fleetwood—Port Kells, BC (Con) 8.3%

¹ Won by the NDP in a by-election with more than a 15% margin over the Liberals.

• The Green Party of Canada did not come within 15% of winning any riding in the 2006 election, but since came 9.0% short of winning London North Centre, ON (Lib) in a by-election.

[edit] Cabinet ministers elected by a margin of less than 10% in 2006

1. Tony Clement, Health and Federal Economic Initiaitve for Northern Ontario: 0.1% over Lib in Parry Sound—Muskoka, ON
2. Lawrence Cannon, Transport, Infrastructure and Communities: 5.0% over BQ in Pontiac, QC
3. Jim Flaherty, Finance: 5.7% over Lib in Whitby—Oshawa, ON
4. Rob Nicholson, Justice: 5.9% over Lib in Niagara Falls, ON
5. Peter MacKay, Defence and Atlantic Opportunities: 7.8% over NDP in Central Nova, NS
6. John Baird, Environment: 9.0% over Lib in Ottawa West—Nepean, ON

[edit] Opinion polls

The dates listed are normally the date the survey was concluded. Most news and political affairs sources use the convention of using the last date that the poll was conducted in order to establish the inclusion/exclusion of current events.

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Conservative	Liberal	New Democratic	Bloc Québécois	Green
Strategic Counsel	June 9, 2008	HTML	32	30	18	10	10
Harris-Decima	June 8, 2008	HTML	32	31	15	6	12
Ipsos-Reid	May 29, 2008	HTML	36	29	14	-	11
Angus Reid Strategies	May 19, 2008	[1]	34	27	18	11	8
Nanos Research	May 11, 2008	PDF	33	34	15	11	8
Strategic Counsel	May 11, 2008	HTML	34	31	16	9	10
Ipsos-Reid	May 08, 2008	HTML	35	32	14	-	9
Ipsos-Reid	May 01, 2008	HTML	34	29	17	-	11
Angus Reid Strategies	April 23, 2008	PDF	33	30	20	8	8
Harris-Decima	April 21, 2008	HTML	32	33	14	-	-
Harris-Decima	April 13, 2008	HTML	30	33	16	9	11
Strategic Counsel	April 13, 2008	HTML	36	30	15	8	10
Ipsos-Reid	April 10, 2008	HTML	35	30	16	-	10
Segma	April 9, 2008	HTML	36	30	15	9	9
Nanos Research	April 9, 2008	HTML	36	36	14	8	6
Harris-Decima	April 6, 2008	HTML	31	32	15	9	12
Harris-Decima	March 30, 2008	HTML	32	30	13	9	12
Angus Reid Strategies	March 28, 2008	HTML	36	26	18	9	9
Ipsos-Reid	March 20, 2008	HTML	35	33	13	10	8
Harris-Decima	March 16, 2008	HTML	32	32	17	9	8
Strategic Counsel	March 16, 2008	HTML	38	27	14	10	12
Ipsos-Reid	March 6, 2008	HTML	35	31	15	9	9
Harris-Decima	March 2, 2008	HTML	31	30	17	8	13
Angus Reid Strategies	March 2, 2008	HTML	34	28	18	10	9
Nanos Research	February 20, 2008	PDF	34	34	14	10	8
Angus Reid Strategies	February 18, 2008	HTML	34	31	17	9	8
Harris-Decima	February 17, 2008	HTML	35	33	13	8	9
Strategic Counsel	February 17, 2008	HTML	39	27	12	10	12
Ipsos-Reid	February 14, 2008	HTML	36	29	13	9	10
Léger Marketing	February 10, 2008	HTML	37	32	16	8	7
Nanos Research	February 4, 2008	PDF	31	33	19	10	8
UniMarketing	January 31, 2008	HTML	33	33	18	8	8
Harris-Decima	January 27, 2008	HTML	29	32	16	9	12
Ipsos-Reid	January 24, 2008	HTML	37	29	14	-	10
Strategic Counsel	January 13, 2008	PDF	36	30	14	11	10
Ipsos-Reid	January 10, 2008	HTML	33	35	13	9	9
Harris-Decima	January 6, 2008	PDF	37	30	13	10	9
Ipsos-Reid	December 20, 2007	HTML	35	33	15	8	8
Harris-Decima	December 17, 2007	HTML	30	32	15	11	12
Angus Reid Strategies	December 14, 2007	PDF	33	28	17	10	10
Strategic Counsel	December 9, 2007	PDF	32	29	16	10	13
Ipsos-Reid	December 6, 2007	HTML	35	29	16	10	9
Harris-Decima	December 2, 2007	HTML	36	28	17	8	11
Ipsos-Reid	November 22, 2007	HTML	39	29	15	8	8
Harris-Decima	November 19, 2007	PDF	36	28	17	8	9
Strategic Counsel	November 13, 2007	PDF	34	31	16	11	8
Harris-Decima	November 12, 2007	HTML	33	29	17	8	12
Strategic Counsel	November 11, 2007	PDF	32	32	12	11	13
SES Research	November 08, 2007	PDF	35	34	17	9	6
Ipsos-Reid	November 08, 2007	HTML	42	28	15	8	7
Ipsos-Reid	November 01, 2007	HTML	39	28	13	12	7
Harris-Decima	October 29, 2007	HTML	33	29	17	9	10
Ipsos-Reid	October 25, 2007	HTML	39	27	17	9	8
Unimarketing	October 18, 2007	HTML	36	25	19	10	9
Ipsos-Reid	October 18, 2007	HTML	40	27	14	9	8
Angus Reid Strategies	October 17, 2007	HTML	34	29	17	9	9
Environics	October 14, 2007	HTML	33	29	19	8	11
Strategic Counsel	October 14, 2007	HTML	34	29	15	10	12
Ipsos-Reid	October 13, 2007	HTML	40	28	16	8	7
Harris-Decima	October 9, 2007	HTML	35	28	17	8	10
Harris-Decima	October 3, 2007	HTML	33	31	16	7	10
Harris-Decima	September 18, 2007	HTML	32	29	17	5	14
Angus Reid Strategies	August 23, 2007	HTML	33	29	19	9	9
SES Research	August 14, 2007	PDF	36	33	13	10	8
Strategic Counsel	August 12, 2007	PDF	33	33	17	10	8
Ipsos-Reid	July 27, 2007	HTML	34	32	17	8	8
Angus Reid Strategies	July 18, 2007	PDF	33	28	19	9	8
Strategic Counsel	July 15, 2007	HTML	31	31	17	10	10
Environics	June 30, 2007	HTML	37	28	17	7	11
Angus Reid Strategies	June 18, 2007	PDF	34	27	19	10	8
Decima	June 11, 2007	HTML	29	32	18	9	9
Ipsos Reid	May 31, 2007	HTML	34	31	16	10	9
Leger Marketing	May 27, 2007	PDF	37	30	14	8	9
Ipsos Reid	May 24, 2007	HTML	37	31	16	7	9
Angus Reid Strategies	May 23, 2007	HTML	35	28	18	9	9
Decima	May 20, 2007	HTML	33	31	17	8	10
Strategic Counsel	May 17, 2007	HTML	34	31	16	10	9
Ipsos Reid	May 17, 2007	HTML	36	32	14	9	7
Ipsos Reid	May 10, 2007	HTML	31	32	17	9	9
SES Research	May 3, 2007	HTML	32	33	17	9	10
Ipsos Reid	May 3, 2007	HTML	35	34	14	9	7
Decima	April 29, 2007	HTML	30	31	15	9	13
Ipsos Reid	April 26, 2007	HTML	38	31	14	8	8
Strategic Counsel	April 24, 2007	PDF	36	30	13	9	12
Decima Research	April 21, 2007	HTML	30	29	18	8	11
Ipsos Reid	April 19, 2007	HTML	39	29	16	9	7
Decima Research	April 15, 2007	HTML	34	31	15	7	11
Ipsos Reid	April 12, 2007	HTML	38	32	14	8	8
SES Research	April 5, 2007	PDF	36	33	16	10	6
Decima Research	April 5, 2007	HTML	39	30	13	8	8
Environics	April 3, 2007	HTML	36	28	16	8	12
Ipsos Reid	March 28, 2007	HTML	36	31	15	8	9
Angus Reid Strategies	March 28, 2007	pdf	39	22	17	10	11
Decima Research	March 25, 2007	HTML	35	31	13	8	10
Léger Marketing	March 25, 2007	HTML	41	27	14	9	6
Ipsos-Reid	March 22, 2007	HTML	40	29	14	9	7
Strategic Counsel	March 21, 2007	HTML	39	31	13	8	9
Ipsos-Reid	March 15, 2007	HTML	36	34	12	9	8
Strategic Counsel	March 13, 2007	HTML	36	31	15	9	10
Angus Reid Strategies	March 07, 2007	HTML	38	28	15	10	8
Decima Research	March 04, 2007	HTML	35	29	15	7	11
Ipsos-Reid	March 03, 2007	HTML	36	32	15	8	8
Angus Reid Strategies	February 27, 2007	HTML	40	26	15	10	8
Decima Research	February 26, 2007	HTML	36	27	13	8	13
Ipsos-Reid	February 24, 2007	HTML	36	34	13	9	8
Decima Research	February 18, 2007	HTML	32	30	15	9	11
Strategic Counsel	February 18, 2007	HTML	34	29	14	11	12
Decima Research	February 12, 2007	HTML	32	33	15	9	8
SES Research	February 8, 2007	PDF	33	33	17	10	7
Léger Marketing	February 4, 2007	PDF	38	31	14	8	7
Decima Research	January 22, 2007	HTML	32	33	13	13	9
Léger Marketing	January 21, 2007	HTML	35	32	13	8	9
Ipsos-Reid	January 18, 2007	HTML	33	37	13	-	-
Decima Research	January 15, 2007	HTML	32	33	13	10	9
Strategic Counsel	January 14, 2007	HTML	31	35	15	11	8
Environics	December 30, 2006	HTML	34	32	14	8	11
Decima Research	December 30, 2006	HTML	34	31	15	10	8
Ipsos-Reid	December 14, 2006	HTML	34	36	13	10	5
Decima Research	December 13, 2006	HTML	32	35	12	11	7
EKOS	December 9, 2006	HTML	33	40	10	9	8
Ipsos-Reid	December 7, 2006	HTML	32	38	13	11	5
Decima Research	December 3, 2006	PDF	31	35	12	10	11
Strategic Counsel	December 3, 2006	HTML	31	37	14	11	7
Léger Marketing	November 26, 2006	HTML	34	32	15	10	6
Decima Research	November 13, 2006	HTML	31	33	15	10	10
SES Research	November 09, 2006	PDF	34	32	16	13	5
Environics	November 06, 2006	HTML	33	32	19	9	5
Decima Research	November 05, 2006	HTML	31	28	18	10	9
Ipsos-Reid	November 02, 2006	HTML	37	29	19	9	5
Decima Research	October 16, 2006	HTML	32	30	15	11	10
Strategic Counsel	October 15, 2006	HTML	32	32	17	11	9
EKOS	October 12, 2006	HTML	36	31.7	16.2	9.9	6.2
Environics	October 12, 2006		37	28	18	9	7
Strategic Counsel	September 17, 2006	HTML	35	26	19	12	8
EKOS	September 14, 2006	PDF	38.7	28.8	17.0	8.4	7.0
Decima Research	September 4, 2006		34	30	14	11	10
Decima Research	August 28, 2006	PDF	33	28	19	10	8
Ipsos-Reid	August 24, 2006		38	29	17	10	5
SES Research	August 23, 2006	PDF	36	30	18	11	5
Decima Research	August 13, 2006	PDF	36	29	15	10	7
Decima Research	July 31, 2006	PDF	32	31	16	11	8
Strategic Counsel	July 30, 2006	HTML	38	29	15	11	8
Ipsos-Reid	July 27, 2006	HTML	39	27	17	10	7
Decima Research Without Greens Surveyed With Greens Surveyed	July 23, 2006 July 16, 2006 July 16, 2006	HTML PDF	36 36 36	30 30 29	17 19 16	- 11 10	- – 8
Strategic Counsel	July 16, 2006	HTML	37	26	18	11	8
Environics	June 23, 2006	HTML	39	25	21	9	4
Decima Research	June 18, 2006	HTML	38	28	19	10	-
Strategic Counsel	June 8, 2006	PDF	36	27	19	9	9
Decima Research	May 28, 2006	PDF	38	29	21	8	-
Ipsos-Reid	May 18, 2006	HTML	43	25	15	9	5
SES Research	May 9, 2006	PDF	38	28	19	9	6
Strategic Counsel	May 3, 2006	HTML	35	31	16	10	9
Decima Research	April 23, 2006	HTML	41	26	19	10	-
Strategic Counsel	April 09, 2006	HTML	39	29	14	11	5
Environics	March 31, 2006	HTML	41	22	21	10	5
Decima Research	March 26, 2006	HTML	39	28	19	11	-
Ipsos-Reid	March 23, 2006	HTML	38	28	19	9	5
Decima Research	March 13, 2006	HTML	37	28	19	10	-
Decima Research	February 27, 2006	HTML	35	28	21	10	-
Ipsos-Reid	February 23, 2006	HTML	39	27	20	8	5
Strategic Counsel	February 21, 2006	HTML	39	28	19	8	-
Decima Research	February 13, 2006	PDF	35	25	24	8	-
SES Research	February 9, 2006	PDF	33	34	18	9	7
Election 2006	January 23, 2006	HTML	36.3	30.2	17.5	10.5	4.5

[edit] Leadership polls

Aside from conducting the usual opinion surveys on general party preferences, polling firms also survey public opinion on who would make the best Prime Minister:

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Stephen Harper	Stéphane Dion	Jack Layton	Gilles Duceppe	Elizabeth May
Ipsos-Reid	February 14, 2008	HTML	41	25	18	6	-
Léger Marketing	February 10, 2008	HTML	32	15	18	-	-
SES Research	February 08, 2008	PDF	35	14	21	6	8
SES Research	January 03, 2008	HTML	42	12	16	5	4
SES Research	November 08, 2007	PDF	37	13	17	6	5
Unimarketing	October 18, 2007	HTML	40	10	16	1	4
Angus Reid Strategies	October 17, 2007	PDF	30	10	-	-	-
Environics	October 17, 2007	HTML	37	12	19	5	4
SES Research	August 4, 2007	PDF	31	23	18	6	5
Angus Reid Strategies	July 16, 2007	HTML	33	14	-	-	-
Angus Reid Strategies	June 18, 2007	PDF	33	17	-	-	-
SES Research	April 5, 2007	HTML	42	17	16	7	4
Ipsos Reid	February 19, 2007	HTML	46	25	29	-	-

Sometimes the information is further broken down, as in this Strategic Counsel poll conducted from February 15 to February 18, 2007:

Leader	Clearest Vision for Canada	Most Decisive Leader	Most Charismatic
Stephen Harper	50	53	35
Stéphane Dion	22	19	20
Jack Layton	20	20	36
Gilles Duceppe	8	8	10

The Strategic Counsel also conducts occasional polls of the overall impression of the party leaders: favourable or not favourable (favourable percentage shown).^[9]

Date of Polling	Stephen Harper	Stéphane Dion	Jack Layton	Gilles Duceppe	Elizabeth May
January 13, 2008	58	39	55	62	56
January 14, 2007	54	59	59	63	58

[edit] Candidates

40th Canadian federal election (candidates)

By party:

• Green Party candidates, 40th Canadian federal election
• Liberal Party candidates, 40th Canadian federal election
• New Democratic Party candidates, 40th Canadian federal election
• Bloc Québécois candidates, 40th Canadian federal election
• Christian Heritage Party candidates, 40th Canadian federal election
• Independent candidates, 40th Canadian federal election
• Conservative Party candidates, 40th Canadian federal election

[edit] Incumbent MPs not running for re-election

[edit] Conservatives

• Norman Doyle, St. John's East, Newfoundland and Labrador^[10]
• Ken Epp, Edmonton—Sherwood Park, Alberta^[11]
• Brian Fitzpatrick, Prince Albert, Saskatchewan^[12]
• Art Hanger, Calgary Northeast, Alberta^[13]
• Betty Hinton, Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo, British Columbia^[14]
• Bob Mills, Red Deer, Alberta^[15]
• Brian Pallister, Portage—Lisgar, Manitoba^[16]
• Carol Skelton, Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar, Saskatchewan^[17]
• Myron Thompson, Wild Rose, Alberta^[18]
• John Williams, Edmonton—St. Albert, Alberta^[19]

[edit] Liberals

• Raymond Bonin, Nickel Belt, Ontario^[20]
• Roy Cullen, Etobicoke North, Ontario^[21]
• John Godfrey, Don Valley West, Ontario^[22]
• Nancy Karetak-Lindell, Nunavut, Nunavut^[23]
• Paul Martin, LaSalle—Émard, Quebec^[24]
• Bill Matthews, Random—Burin—St. George's, Newfoundland and Labrador^[25]
• Joe McGuire, Egmont, Prince Edward Island^[26]
• Andy Scott, Fredericton, New Brunswick^[27]
• Paul Steckle, Huron—Bruce, Ontario^[28]
• Belinda Stronach, Newmarket—Aurora, Ontario^[29]
• Tom Wappel, Scarborough Southwest, Ontario^[30]

[edit] Bloquistes

• Caroline St-Hilaire, Longueuil—Pierre-Boucher, Quebec^[31]

[edit] New Democrats

• Bill Blaikie, Elmwood—Transcona, Manitoba^[32]
• Alexa McDonough, Halifax, Nova Scotia^[33]

[edit] References

[edit] External links

[edit] Government links

• Elections Canada
  • Elections Canada nominations database
• Parliament of Canada
• Prime Minister of Canada

[edit] General links

• Maple Leaf Web
• Fairvote Canada – About proportional representation
• Canada election news and discussion
• Canada elections links wiki via Democracies Online

[edit] Election coverage

• Nodice.ca – Canadian federal election 2008
• Politics Watch

[edit] Opinion polls

• Nodice.ca – Canadian federal election 2008 – Public Opinion Polls
• Paulitics blog – ongoing coverage of federal polls & long term trends in party support

[edit] Projections and predictions

• Election Prediction Project
• Hill and Knowlton election predictor
• LISPOP – Projected distribution of seats
• TrendLines Research International & Fed/Prov Election projections Fed seat projection currently updated weekly.

[edit] Blogs

• Green Bloggers – Green blogs
• LibLogs – Liberal blogs
• The Blogging Dippers – New Democrat blogs
• The Blogging Tories – Conservative blogs

[edit] Party websites

[edit] Parties with representation in the House of Commons

• Bloc Québécois
• Conservative Party of Canada
• Liberal Party of Canada
• New Democratic Party

[edit] Parties without representation in the House of Commons

• Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party
• Canadian Action Party
• Christian Heritage Party of Canada
• Communist Party of Canada
• First Peoples National Party
• Freedom Party of Canada
• Green Party of Canada
• Libertarian Party of Canada
• Marijuana Party of Canada
• Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada
• NeoRhino.ca
• Newfoundland and Labrador First Party
• Peace and Ecology Party of Canada
• People's Political Power of Canada
• Progressive Canadian Party
• Socialist Party of Canada
• Western Block Party
• Work Less Party

[edit]  

v • d • e Elections in Canada Most recent Federal 2006 • BC 2005 • Alberta 2008 • Saskatchewan 2007 • Manitoba 2007 • Ontario 2007 • Quebec 2007 • New Brunswick 2006 • Nova Scotia 2006 • PEI 2007 • Nfld. & Lab. 2007 • Yukon 2006 • NWT 2007 • Nunavut 2004 • Provincial summary Lists All • Federal • BC • AB • SK • MB • ON • QC • NB • NS • PEI • NL • YU • NT • NU Electoral districts BC • AB • SK • MB • ON • QC • NB • NS • PEI • NL • YU • NT • NU