Talk:2006 Pacific typhoon season/January-June

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[edit] January

[edit] Week 1

[edit] 97W.INVEST

The first invest of 2006...97W.INVEST has formed. -- RattleMan 01:27, 3 January 2006 (UTC)

Zeta came from 97L, I wonder if we'll get Chanchu. NSLE (T+C+CVU) 01:38, 3 January 2006 (UTC)
It seems not. It's gone now... -- RattleMan 01:09, 4 January 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Week 3

[edit] 98W.INVEST

The second invest of 2006...98W.INVEST. -- RattleMan 22:33, 19 January 2006 (UTC)

Doesn't the Pacific typhoon season have a secondary peak? I know storms form year-round there...(although it seems like it now in the Atlantic as well) CrazyC83 23:03, 19 January 2006 (UTC)
PAGASA has named it. NSLE (T+C) 02:31, 22 January 2006 (UTC)
JTWC TCFA NSLE (T+C) 05:25, 25 January 2006 (UTC)
TCFA has been cancelled; chance for formation now poor. NSLE (T+C) 08:48, 26 January 2006 (UTC)

[edit] February

[edit] Week 2

[edit] 99W.INVEST

Another invest for the WPAC. -- RattleMan 07:21, 12 February 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Week 3

[edit] 91W.INVEST

99W has been renamed 91W. Same storm, two designations. -- RattleMan 07:21, 12 February 2006 (UTC)

OK, 91W is still here. -- RattleMan 07:38, 20 February 2006 (UTC)
Typhoon Vamei formed at 1.5°N – 91W formed at 2.6°N but is currently at 1.7°N. If it moves as it is right now, any more south-southwestward before forming it could break Vamei's record. NSLE (T+C) at 08:09 UTC (2006-02-20)
Latest Navy site image says 1.2°N, 20 kts - if we get anything out of this Vamei may well lose her record... NSLE (T+C) at 01:45 UTC (2006-02-21)
Navy site no longer showing it. NSLE (T+C) at 01:44 UTC (2006-02-22)

[edit] March

[edit] Week 1

[edit] 01W.NONAME

Apparently a TCFA has been issued. Chanchu might not be far away! -- RattleMan 22:29, 3 March 2006 (UTC)

It's Tropical Depression One-W! CrazyC83 01:25, 4 March 2006 (UTC)
JTWC now has it as Tropical Storm 01W, JMA has it as a TD with potential of becoming Chanchu within 24 hours. NSLE (T+C) at 02:17 UTC (2006-03-05)

[edit] Week 2

[edit] 94W.INVEST

It looks like this could develop! Now the season is finaly getting into gear. Icelandic Hurricane #12 13:58, 12 March 2006 (UTC)

Looks pretty pathetic on the Navy site. And it's moving at full steam towards Vietnam, too fast to become much before landfall. Maybe it will develop in the Indian Ocean instead. —Cuiviénen, 20:13, 12 March 2006 (UTC)
Now I agree. Icelandic Hurricane #12 01:12, 13 March 2006 (UTC)

[edit] April

[edit] Week 1

[edit] 96W.INVEST

Yup, NRL has it. -- RattleMan 00:41, 2 April 2006 (UTC)

Gone! -- RattleMan 00:41, 4 April 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Week 4

[edit] 97W.INVEST

NRL link to another invest.--Nilfanion 19:52, 26 April 2006 (UTC)

And its gone again.--Nilfanion 14:22, 28 April 2006 (UTC)

[edit] May

[edit] Week 1

[edit] 98W.INVEST

Yup, NRL has it. -- RattleMan 23:25, 1 May 2006 (UTC)

[edit] 99W.INVEST

Another one. [1] -- RattleMan 22:04, 2 May 2006 (UTC)

Which is no more.--Nilfanion 17:34, 3 May 2006 (UTC)

[edit] 90W.INVEST

And another one. [2] -- Yarrah 14:41, 4 May 2006 (UTC)

Poof! It's gone -- Yarrah 14:54, 5 May 2006 (UTC)

[edit] More Week 1 + Week 2

[edit] 02W.CHANCHU-CALOY

[edit] 91W.INVEST

And here's another one[3] -- Yarrah 14:53, 5 May 2006 (UTC)

This one's got a chance. NSLE (T+C) at 03:46 UTC (2006-05-07)

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.2N
141.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 140.1E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. A 060840Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE REVEALED A BROAD,
WEAK CIRCUALTION WITH MULTIPLE CIRCULATION CENTERS. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
OVER THE WESTERN END OF THIS BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE ANIMATED IMAGERY FURTHER DEPICTS INCREASING CONVECTIVE ORGANI-
ZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1006 MB. BASED ON INCREASING ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
Whats the source of this? User:...
JTWC issued a TCFA[4] -- Yarrah 13:05, 8 May 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Tropical Depression 02W

NRL and JMA have upgraded 91W to 02W.NONAME. --Coredesat 19:25, 8 May 2006 (UTC)

JTWC upgraded it to a TS. NSLE (T+C) at 04:36 UTC (2006-05-09)

[edit] Tropical Storm Chanchu

It's now Chanchu. PAGASA has named it Caloy. Expected to be a typhoon in 24 hours, landfall in the Philippines after 72 hours. --Coredesat 21:11, 9 May 2006 (UTC)

[edit] (Super) Typhoon Chanchu
If it follows the path currently projected by the JTWC, Hong Kong could be in for a direct hit by a Cat 3-Cat 4 typhoon. —Cuiviénen (talk•contribs), Friday, 12 May 2006 @ 02:50 UTC
Hmmm, if it hits Hong Kong as a Super Typhoon will it be the Perfect Disaster? -- RattleMan 03:44, 13 May 2006 (UTC)
Dunno, but JTWC currently predicts 120 kt (140 mph, Cat 4) at their last point before landfall directly over Hong Kong. —CuiviénenT|C, Saturday, 13 May 2006 @ 20:45 UTC
Swissinfo says Chanchu's deathtoll has reached 24 [5]-- Yarrah 14:16, 13 May 2006 (UTC)
JMA too says it's a typhoon now.--Mikoyan21 00:21, 14 May 2006 (UTC)

I am going to scream. The JTWC now forecasts Chanchu to make landfall on Hong Kong as a 135 knot supertyphoon. Wasn't the last and only time a tropical cyclone attained supertyphoon intensity in the South China Sea Supertyphoon Ryan in 1995, and barely at that? Ryan reached supertyphoon status just as it was in the Taiwan Strait. I'm afraid that Hong Kong might be in for a serious beating this time.Omni ND 12:42, 14 May 2006 (UTC)

Saffir-Simpson scale was developed for 1-min sustained windspeeds. JMA uses 10-min windspeeds, so if they say that windspeed is 80kt, then it is actually at least Category 2 in SS scale.--Mikoyan21 14:41, 14 May 2006 (UTC)
...and in any case, SS-scale is used only on hurricanes. Its' use in other basins is only informal.--82.128.185.25 18:38, 14 May 2006 (UTC)
I have been watching this Typhoon closely for days and it's really starting to strengthen quickly. It's eye has been doing odd things during the past 18 hours. It looks like a pin-hole eye like Wilma's. 216.110.254.167 19:10, 14 May 2006 (UTC)

AAAAAHHHHHHH! Chanchu is now a full-blown supertyphoon and is expected to become a Category 5 in the South China Sea. Is this a harbinger of things to come? Omni ND 21:49, 14 May 2006 (UTC)

Hong Kong better be getting prepared already. This is probably going to be "The Big One". Projections now put Chanchu directly over Hong Kong as a strong Cat 4 or weak Cat 5. —CuiviénenT|C, Sunday, 14 May 2006 @ 22:06 UTC
The JMA is really underforecasting this storm. They're actually calling for weakening over the next day or so before it makes landfall. --Coredesat 22:32, 14 May 2006 (UTC)
Agree, I think that's why we continue to prefer JTWC over the RSMCs, they may not be official, but their data just feels better. We need to find the 10-minute version of SS; 10-min 90kts are almost certainly not Cat 2.--Nilfanion (talk) 22:38, 14 May 2006 (UTC)
JTWC's 0900 UTC advisory also weakens the storm over the next 48 hours by about 15 knots. NSLE (T+C) at 09:54 UTC (2006-05-15)

Should we write a separate article for Chanchu now? It's a supertyphoon in the South China Sea and has already killed 32 people; that alone probably makes it notable enough for an article, ignoring what potential for damage in Hong Kong it has. —CuiviénenT|C, Monday, 15 May 2006 @ 01:45 UTC

Be my guest, but don't forget to link up to the 2000 Typhoon season for the other Chanchu. Jake52
I support the article, but I know little about the Western Pacific so I'm not the person to write it. CrazyC83 04:13, 15 May 2006 (UTC)
No, not enough info on preparations in the Philippines and China yet. We could work on a draft in userspace though... NSLE (T+C) at 09:54 UTC (2006-05-15)
I think an article is needed, but first, is the peak intensity even known for sure? We shouldn't have a repeat of the problem with Monica or Larry from a few weeks back. I'm sorry if it is known, but I've been gone the last three days. We have the death toll and the damage toll so far, so provided we have a good storm history and some preparations, an article could work. Hurricanehink (talk) 15:22, 15 May 2006 (UTC)
I have now created the article. Please do not delete it, if you think it stinks, then you can help me improve it. Icelandic Hurricane #12 17:06, 15 May 2006 (UTC) Also, what was the minimum pressure? I couldn't find anything lower than 930 mbar. Icelandic Hurricane #12 17:07, 15 May 2006 (UTC)
The navy site has 910 mbar at their lowest, should i write that? Icelandic Hurricane #12 21:51, 15 May 2006 (UTC)
If the local meteorological agencies don't have data, that should be the secondary source, so yes unless the 930 was provided by the local agency. CrazyC83 22:01, 15 May 2006 (UTC)

CNN says 'only' 37 people were killed in the Phillipines[6], while the article says 41. Which source should we believe? -- Yarrah 21:41, 15 May 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Week 3

[edit] 92W.INVEST

It just formed. Looks very good, I wouldn't be surprised to see Jelawat out of that one. CrazyC83 19:38, 15 May 2006 (UTC)

And it's almost gone. Pikachu9000 03:37, 16 May 2006 (UTC)
It's officialy gone now -- Yarrah 12:56, 17 May 2006 (UTC)

[edit] June

[edit] Week 1

[edit] 94W.INVEST

94W just formed. Did we miss 93W or did they make a mistake? -- RattleMan 00:01, 2 June 2006 (UTC)

Strange, I was wondering that myself (VOFFA 00:05, 2 June 2006 (UTC))

...and it's already dead... -- RattleMan 05:15, 2 June 2006 (UTC)
that was fast.. (VOFFA 05:25, 2 June 2006 (UTC))

[edit] Week 2

[edit] 95W.INVEST

Here's 95W for you. [7] -- RattleMan 07:22, 11 June 2006 (UTC)

Nope, gone... -- RattleMan 20:12, 11 June 2006 (UTC)
No...it's back? First 94E, now this? -- RattleMan 01:36, 14 June 2006 (UTC)

It's gone now. -- RattleMan 07:36, 15 June 2006 (UTC)

[edit] 96W.INVEST

A 96W appeared and then quickly disappeared. -- RattleMan 07:36, 15 June 2006 (UTC)

Seems to be back. NSLE 09:33, 15 June 2006 (UTC)
Gone again... -- RattleMan 02:59, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

[edit] 97W.INVEST

Another invest in the West Pacific. -- Yarrah 18:35, 15 June 2006 (UTC)

Very organized. íslenska hurikein #12(samtal) 20:09, 15 June 2006 (UTC)
It's off NRL...for now... -- RattleMan 09:28, 16 June 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Week 3

[edit] 98W.INVEST

A new Invest in the West Pacific. -- WmE 11:07, 17 June 2006 (UTC)

TCFA released by the JTWC but not the NRL, yet. íslenska hurikein #12(samtal) 00:40, 21 June 2006 (UTC)
hmm? I just saw for East Pacific Ocean a TCFA -- VOFFA 01:35, 21 June 2006 (UTC)
Here it is. íslenska hurikein #12(samtal) 01:53, 21 June 2006 (UTC)
Oh nevermind, your right. I'm so stupid. That's the TCFA for the to be TD 3E. I didn't know the east/central pacific info was on the JTWC and just assumed without reading it that it was for thw WPAC. But 98W it still does look decent. íslenska hurikein #12(samtal) 01:56, 21 June 2006 (UTC)

NRL removed the invest from their site -- VOFFA 00:17, 22 June 2006 (UTC)

[edit] 99W.INVEST

And another one. [8] -- RattleMan 18:25, 17 June 2006 (UTC)

Gone from NRL. 98W still remains. -- RattleMan 10:04, 19 June 2006 (UTC)

[edit] 90W.INVEST

New invest 12N 124E VOFFA 15:52, 20 June 2006 (UTC)

gone -- VOFFA 01:25, 21 June 2006 (UTC)

[edit] 91W.INVEST

It's on the NRL, but no data is available. VOFFA 15:52, 20 June 2006 (UTC)

removed from NRL -- VOFFA 01:25, 21 June 2006 (UTC)

[edit] 03W.JELAWAT (DOMENG)

[edit] 92W.INVEST

Yet another interest.. -- VOFFA 00:20, 22 June 2006 (UTC)

[edit] 92W.DOMENG (PAGASA)
PAGASA has named it Domeng... [9] NSLE 07:26, 24 June 2006 (UTC)
25 mph and 1004 mbar. It's just about to hit the Philippines. I find it odd that the JTWC hasn't even issued a TCFA. íslenska hurikein #12(samtal) 13:26, 24 June 2006 (UTC)

Doesn't this need to be added to the main page? íslenska hurikein #12(samtal) 13:38, 24 June 2006 (UTC)

I'd say it does. -- RattleMan 13:42, 24 June 2006 (UTC)
PAGASA now has the storm as Tropical Storm, but wouldn't JTWC change it to TD 03W by now? -- VOFFA 22:07, 24 June 2006 (UTC)

JTWC has issued a TCFA for 92W Invest. VOFFA 00:13, 26 June 2006 (UTC)

[edit] 03W.NONAME

03W NONAME (TD3W) per NRL, JTWC yet to update. NSLE 08:17, 26 June 2006 (UTC)

The JMA is also watching this one as a Depression, we could very well see Jelawat. NSLE 08:27, 26 June 2006 (UTC)
Now a tropical storm says the NRL. íslenska hurikein #12(samtal) 15:33, 26 June 2006 (UTC)
I see that in the storm archives intensity 40kts 994mb, but still 03W.NoName. weird -- VOFFA 22:44, 26 June 2006 (UTC)
Please, all CAPS for NRL storm names, stop using "NoName" or "Invest". It remains 03W.NONAME as it's no the JTWC that names storms, it's the JMA. NSLE 02:40, 27 June 2006 (UTC)

[edit] 03W.JELAWAT

And now we have 03W.JELAWAT. [10] --Coredesat talk 10:30, 27 June 2006 (UTC)

NRL has the storm at depression strength now (30 kts) - VOFFA 20:11, 28 June 2006 (UTC)

heh what a difference a half hour makes. NRL has it at 40 kts again -- VOFFA 20:52, 28 June 2006 (UTC)

Looks like Jelawat is pretty much done. It made landfall earlier this morning, and the last advisories have been issued by both the JTWC and JMA. --Coredesat talk 10:16, 29 June 2006 (UTC)

Gone from the NRL, but with 96E to replace it. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 15:46, 29 June 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Week 4

[edit] 93W.INVEST

new invest south-east of the Philippines -- VOFFA 16:00, 27 June 2006 (UTC)

JTWC notes that the low has now dissipated and not considered an area of interest for development. -- VOFFA 20:13, 28 June 2006 (UTC)

[edit] 04W.EWINIAR

It has a very well defined pinhole eye. Looks like it is intensifying. A 45% chance of becoming a Super Typhoon. Irfanfaiz 05:45, 3 July 2006 (UTC)

Ewiniar intensifying, the eye began to shurnk as the system's size began to expand, the circulation looks very well-organized for a Category 1 or 2 typhoon. Irfanfaiz 12:17, 3 July 2006 (UTC) ([11])

[edit] 94W.INVEST

another invest -- VOFFA 18:15, 27 June 2006 (UTC)

TCFA. NSLE 09:32, 29 June 2006 (UTC)
This is quite organized for such a weak system. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 15:47, 29 June 2006 (UTC)

[edit] 04W.NONAME

Navy site now lists it as a NoName. Jake52 My talk 15:31, 29 June 2006 (EST)

Unisys has it as a tropical storm, but everywhere else has td. Is it a glitch (it sure looks like a ts on satellite imagery)? íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 18:42, 30 June 2006 (UTC)
Let me make this clear - Unisys is not a centre for tropical cyclone advisories. It's a JTWC/JMA TD currently, which is what goes. NSLE 18:46, 30 June 2006 (UTC)

[edit] 04W.EWINIAR

Both JTWC and JMA have upgraded it. NSLE 01:13, 1 July 2006 (UTC)

I have a feeling that by the time this storm is through, an article will on Ewiniar will be in existence. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 16:01, 4 July 2006 (UTC)

Unisys and the NRL site have it as a super typhoon... íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 02:30, 5 July 2006 (UTC)

I'll try to find the images... I found a MODIS image i will upload it later. Irfanfaiz 09:06, 6 July 2006 (UTC)

Is Ewiniar's storm surge as high as 22 feet at the moment? That's what the Joint-Typhoon Warning Center seems to be implying.

It's obviously much weaker now (and looks sheared to bits). Seoul could take a direct hit. Pobbie Rarr 15:59, 9 July 2006 (UTC)

Looks extratropical now. --Coredesat talk. o.o;; 12:01, 10 July 2006 (UTC)

The JTWC issued its last advisory, but the JMA still thinks Ewiniar is tropical, just like with Chanchu. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 12:55, 10 July 2006 (UTC)

It looks like it's gonna get an article after all; 35 people have been killed![12] íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 12:31, 10 July 2006 (UTC)

I don't think that's enough to warrant an article, given the usually high number of deaths from Western Pacific storms. Chacor 13:47, 10 July 2006 (UTC)

JMA issued another advisory. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 22:20, 10 July 2006 (UTC)

And the last advisory was issued at 0300 UTC, so I'll go update the article. --Coredesat talk. o.o;; 11:38, 11 July 2006 (UTC)

If we had enough sources we will create a more better article. Irfanfaiz 05:25, 11 July 2006 (UTC)

[edit] 95W.INVEST

Another one is up. Looks fairly decent. I'd give it a 30% chance of becoming a TD. 24.83.123.85 02:42, 29 June 2006 (UTC)

TCFA. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 19:42, 3 July 2006 (UTC)
TCFA was cancelled as storm dissipates according to JTWC - VOFFA 01:12, 4 July 2006 (UTC)

It's heading for Taiwan at the moment. Too early however to start panicking. Pobbie Rarr 15:58, 9 July 2006 (UTC)