Talk:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/Debby

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[edit] 04L.Debby

[edit] 96L.INVEST

New Invest up. [1] --Ajm81 00:24, 21 August 2006 (UTC)

Whereabouts is it? I can't see an image yet. Pobbie Rarr 00:28, 21 August 2006 (UTC)
Very interesting - just off the coast of Africa. – Chacor 00:30, 21 August 2006 (UTC)
This thing looks very impressive. As long as it avoids that dry air to the north I think it has a fair shot at developing. bob rulz 03:13, 21 August 2006 (UTC)
The SSTs off to the west do not look good to me. If it develops quickly it may hang together as it crosses the tongue of colder water west of tbe Cape Verde Islands and make it to the Carribean (where it could become a hurricane). More likely it will stagnate and fizzle out.
Overall, the cold water upwelling that I noticed earlier this year may have finally dissipated, but numerous other upwellings and a serious one off of the NW coast of Africa are holding down the SSTs and suppressing cyclogenesis in the Atlantic this year. This may be an amazingly mild storm season this year, especially in comparison to last year's season. --EMS | Talk 03:45, 21 August 2006 (UTC)
Most seasons would be mild compared to last year Cryomaniac 06:39, 21 August 2006 (UTC)
Looks pretty impressive for a invest. Look here [2] --Irfanfaiz 10:54, 21 August 2006 (UTC)

That came out of nowhere! It looks quite impressive! SST's could hinder development though. CrazyC83 15:20, 21 August 2006 (UTC)

Most of the models are forecasting a more northerly turn... – Chacor 15:26, 21 August 2006 (UTC)
Add - GFDL makes this a hurricane. – Chacor 15:29, 21 August 2006 (UTC)

T-numbers at 1.5/1.5. -- RattleMan 18:52, 21 August 2006 (UTC)

NHC has it on its tropical cyclone danger area graphic Jamie|C 19:01, 21 August 2006 (UTC)
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued -- グリフオーザー 19:41, 21 August 2006 (UTC)

[edit] 04L.NONAME

Just appeared. -- WmE 19:01, 21 August 2006 (UTC)

Let's wait for the NHC to confirm that. -- WmE 19:05, 21 August 2006 (UTC)
Looks like it's going to be a fishspinner based on the models.--Holderca1 19:22, 21 August 2006 (UTC)
A Cat 3 fishspinner? -- RattleMan 19:24, 21 August 2006 (UTC)
I can see such happening, but there are too many variables. Nonetheless, I think it is 95% sure this will be a fishie. CrazyC83 19:35, 21 August 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Tropical Depression Four
Confirmation of the NHC! -- WmE 20:39, 21 August 2006 (UTC)

Yep! It's TD4! Cape Verde has come alive! CrazyC83 20:44, 21 August 2006 (UTC)

Long term model (unofficial) has it making landfall somewhere in New England the Friday following this Friday (the Friday before Labor Day weekend). Everyone better keep their eyes on this one. Hello32020 21:03, 21 August 2006 (UTC)
This reminds me more of a recent D-storm than anything... CrazyC83 21:26, 21 August 2006 (UTC)
Yes! Finally, another storm to track in the Atlantic. bob rulz 21:28, 21 August 2006 (UTC)
Ah ha! The silence is broken! I also see that the models take it over open waters [3] so we can root for intensification. Hmmm...Debby, damnit, the girls are doing it again! ;) -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 21:39, 21 August 2006 (UTC)
Well XTRP has a southern track, but you're probably right. I wouldn't let my guard down though. Hello32020 21:43, 21 August 2006 (UTC)
XTRP isn't a model, it means extrapolation ;) Hurricanehink (talk) 21:50, 21 August 2006 (UTC)
Still don't let your guard down. Hello32020 21:59, 21 August 2006 (UTC)

Here is an observation site that will be important in the next 24 hours. Hurricanehink (talk) 21:53, 21 August 2006 (UTC)

Well this seems to be worth watching. Alastor Moody (talk) 23:54, 21 August 2006 (UTC)
From what I've seen, the current model & forecast tracks take it away from the SAL which lies to the north. The subtropical ridge is in an easterly position, so it's not going to threaten the Caribbean like some people seem to think. Pobbie Rarr 22:23, 21 August 2006 (UTC)

BTW, how many TS have actually hit the Cape Verde Islands? There can't be that many in recorded history. Pobbie Rarr 23:13, 21 August 2006 (UTC)

Anyone have a guess to why NOAA didn't put a Tropical Storm Warning on the track map. Hello32020 23:21, 21 August 2006 (UTC)

Too small to bother with? Pobbie Rarr 23:30, 21 August 2006 (UTC)

8 PM AST advisory out. The only change is that the center reformed more to the south. Hurricanehink (talk) 00:04, 22 August 2006 (UTC)

I guess the atlantic season is trying to catch up the now so active pacific hurricane season. --Irfanfaiz 01:11, 22 August 2006 (UTC)
Still has a long way to go in that regard. bob rulz 02:06, 22 August 2006 (UTC)

I don't want to be prematurely alarmist, but the path looks a bit like that "New York City hurricane" scenario they've been anticipating for a while. --Revolución hablar ver 02:59, 22 August 2006 (UTC)

The discussion does have some very interesting wording saying that the models have been wrong and that it looks more and more like it's going to go west...I guess we'll just have to wait and see. I love it, though, excellently wrong, haha. bob rulz 03:05, 22 August 2006 (UTC)

[edit] 04L.DEBBY

The NRL has 35 kt and 1003 mbar. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 01:31, 23 August 2006 (UTC)

Hello Debby in one hour! (at least we think) Now just keep fishing! CrazyC83 01:48, 23 August 2006 (UTC)
It's about time. bob rulz 01:48, 23 August 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Tropical Storm Debby

Now official. Pobbie Rarr 02:31, 23 August 2006 (UTC)

This could be the first hurricane. -Tcwd 03:00, 23 August 2006 (UTC)
So it looks like this could possibly hit New England.Reub2000 05:49, 23 August 2006 (UTC)
Nahh, it's possible, but at the most, it'll probably be an Isaac (2000) or a Gert (1999). But, whose to say it can't pull a Kate (2003) and affect Canada? →Cyclone1→ 12:02, 23 August 2006 (UTC)
Didn't the remenents of Isaac (2000) cause the October storms of that year in the UK? Cryomaniac 17:10, 23 August 2006 (UTC)
Probably, It was absorbed by a powerful low near Scotland in October. →Cyclone1→ 18:08, 23 August 2006 (UTC)

Still looks like a fishspinner to me. [4] [5] --Holderca1 14:19, 23 August 2006 (UTC)

I think so too. I still see a fish-spinner, regardless of how strong she gets. CrazyC83 15:25, 23 August 2006 (UTC)
Yea, she's a fishie. I think, absolute worst scenario, another Fabian, But I can bareley see this thing becoming a category three. →Cyclone1→ 16:15, 23 August 2006 (UTC)
Weather Channel says if sheer catches debby, it could push it more mestward. →Cyclone1→ 16:56, 23 August 2006 (UTC)

Looks like Debby is weakening some...although I could be wrong... CrazyC83 20:04, 23 August 2006 (UTC)

It does look like thunderstorms have diminished, but it looks like it is trying to develop an eye based on the latest visible. [6] --Holderca1 20:11, 23 August 2006 (UTC)
Oh, come on. Not another absolute dud. →Cyclone1→ 20:30, 23 August 2006 (UTC)

Apparently, convection has regenerated, and intensity is held at 40 knots. However, it doesn't look like a TS on NRL imagery, and even the NHC admits "(...) SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF ONLY 30 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES." – Chacor 02:53, 24 August 2006 (UTC)

Well, it looks much better now and NRL puts it up to 45kt [7]. Pobbie Rarr 14:52, 24 August 2006 (UTC)
The 5 day map has it becoming a hurricane at 35N. Wind shear maps show wind shear around that area. Reub2000 22:13, 24 August 2006 (UTC)
They are actually predicting to be extratropical in 5 days. --Holderca1 22:53, 24 August 2006 (UTC)
So in the end, Debby would end up as a severe mid-latitude cyclone. Alastor Moody (talk) 02:34, 25 August 2006 (UTC)
But on the other hand, the NHC expects some amounts of dry air as of where Debby is, so Debby isn't expected be a hurricane. Rather it my peak as a moderate 50 mph storm. Alastor Moody (talk) 05:26, 26 August 2006 (UTC)

Down to a tropical depression. – Chacor 09:32, 26 August 2006 (UTC)

Stupid NRL error: [8] – Chacor 13:13, 26 August 2006 (UTC)

The NRL must have screwed up on that, besides Debby dosen't seem to be a fighter except for struggling to still be a depression. Alastor Moody (talk) 20:32, 26 August 2006 (UTC)
No signs of any reintensficiation or anything except for Debby to slowly degenrate into a remant low by 24 hours (as the NHC forecats). Alastor Moody (talk) 22:34, 26 August 2006 (UTC)
Gone from the NRL. íslenskur fellibylur #12 (samtal) 14:22, 28 August 2006 (UTC)