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This is an old project which I am no longer updating. As you can see, my predictions couldn't have been further from reality
[edit] The 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season
The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, 2006, and lasted until November 30, 2006. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin, although the first storm of the season formed on May 23, which extended these boundaries. Forecasters originally called for an above-average hurricane season; following in the pattern of the previous incredible 2005 season, and the season lived up to these predictions, while not active to the extremes of the previous season. A total of twenty-one tropical storms formed, of which fourteen became hurricanes, which is just one shy of the record of fifteen set in the previous season. In addition, a record-breaking eleven hurricanes reached or surpassed Category 2 intensity. Of these, a record nine strengthened into major hurricanes, a record six became Category 4 hurricanes and two storms managed to reach Category 5 strength, the highest categorization for hurricanes. The season was also unique in that it contained the most destructive, and longest lasting tropical depression on record; Tropical Depression 20.
The 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season left a devastating impact in some areas, with damages totaling over $63 Billion USD, the second highest total ever, second to the previous season. In addition, the season's death toll was also quite high; with at least 1,067 people killed. Strangely, only one major hurricane, Ernesto, made landfall on the United States coast. However, three Category 2 storms, and four Category 1 storms did strike the coast, bringing a total of eight U.S. landfalling hurricanes in one season, which is a record. In addition, four seperate tropical storms also struck the United States. In Mexico, many areas were hit hard by the season, particularly the Yucatan peninsula, which suffered a swipe by Category 4 Hurricane Alberto from 75 miles away, and a direct landfall from Category 4 Hurricane Helene. The western tip of Cuba suffered as well, with a landfall from Category 3 Hurricane Patty, and a close swipe from Category 4 Hurricane Alberto. The most tragic effects in terms of casualties, however, occured in Hispaniola. Hurricane Patty passed 50 miles south of the island as a Category 3 storm in late September, and then Hurricane Tony struck the island directly on the north side as a Category 4 storm, causing deadly mudslides that killed over 500 people. In addition, the island took a strike from Tropcial Depression 20, which sat over the island for nearly a week, dumping large amounts of rain, and becoming the deadliest tropical depression on record.
[edit] Seasonal forecasts
2006 Hurricane Season
vs.
Record and Average Hurricane Seasons
Click on number to see record year.
| Systems |
Average |
Record |
2006
(Predicted) |
2006
(Actual) |
| Named Storms |
10 |
27 |
17 |
21 |
| Hurricanes |
6 |
15 |
9 |
14 |
| Category 3+ Hurricanes |
2 |
8 |
5 |
9 |
| Category 5 Hurricanes |
0.3 |
4 |
- |
2 |
Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach, Dr. William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University, and separately by NOAA forecasters.
Dr. Klotzbach's team (formerly led by Dr. Gray) defines the average number of storms per season (1950 to 2000) as 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 hurricanes reaching or exceeding Category 3 strength. A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 6 to 14 named storms, with 4 to 8 of those reaching hurricane strength, and 1 to 3 reaching or exceeding Category 3 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.
[edit] Pre-season forecasts
On December 5, 2005, Dr. Gray's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2006 season, predicting a well above-average season (17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 of Category 3 or higher). [1]
Additionally, once again, the team predicted a high potential for at least one major hurricane to directly impact the United States: the forecast indicates an 81% chance of at least one major hurricane striking the U.S. mainland (including a 64% chance of at least one major hurricane strike on the East Coast of the United States including the Florida peninsula, and a 47% chance of at least one major hurricane strike on the Gulf Coast of the United States from the Florida Panhandle westward). In addition, the potential for major hurricane activity in the Caribbean was above average.
[edit] Retirement
Names to be retired will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in late May or early June of 2007, during the annual hurricane committee meeting of the WMO in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Any statement about retired names made before then is purely speculative. However, the United States has announced that it will request to retire at least 4 names at the WMO convention on in late May.
A high number of storms in 2006 are candidates for retirement, which will likely surpass the record of five set by the previous 2005 season. Candidates include:
- Alberto - Struck Jamaica, TX, and affected Cuba, causing 1.2 Billion in damage, and killing 23
- Ernesto - Brushed nearly the entire FL coast as a Cat 5, killing 103 and causing 43.3 Billion in damage
- Helene - Struck the Yucatan as a Cat 4, and LA as a Cat 1, killing 44 and causing 2.5 Billion in damage
- Kirk - Struck MA as a Cat 2, killing 24 and causing 6 billion in damage
- Oscar - Struck the Keys and the Panhandle of FL, killing 18 and causing 3.5 Billion in damage
- Patty - Struck Jamaica, and Cuba as a Cat 3, and the FL Panhandle as a Cat 2, killing 35 and causing 1.7 Billion in damages
- Tony - Devastated Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Panama as a Cat 4, killing 586 and causing 2.4 Billion in damages
- Valerie - Devastated parts of the Lesser Antilles as a Cat 4, killing 44 and causing 350 million in damage
[edit] Possibility of an Unnamed Hurricane
On December 3, a suspicious area of cloudiness and convection was detected over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The area had features that resembled a hurricane, and winds as high as 84 mph were reported from nearby ships. However, no classification was given by the NHC. If investigations reveal that it was infact a hurricane, it would be the first possibility of an un-named hurricane since the infamous Perfect Storm of 1991. Details will follow in an upcoming press release by the NHC.
[edit] Coining of a Phrase
Since the devastation of Hurricane Tony in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, a phrase was coined in reference to a highly destructive or deadly hurricane. Destructive storms are now said to have "Won a Tony Award".
[edit] Storms
[edit] Hurricane Alberto
A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on May 19 and preceded west at a brisk pace through the Atlantic with little development through May 22. Early on May 23, thunderstorms flared up and the wave became Tropical Depression One when located about 100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It was upgraded to Tropcial Storm Alberto at the next advisory. Alberto struck Barbados at 5 a.m. EST on May 24 with winds of 45 mph, and then the storm passed between St. Vincent and St. Lucia with winds of 45 to 50 mph. As Alberto entered the eastern Caribbean, strengthening quickened in pace and it became a hurricane at 6 p.m. EST on May 26. Alberto preceded west and became a Category 2 storm with winds of 100 mph as it made landfall in the southern portion of Jamaica on May 27. The hurricane weakened slightly to a Cat 1, but regained this strength quickly as it passed through the Cayman Islands as a Category 3 storm with sustained winds of 120 mph on May 28 at 5 a.m. EST. Alberto passed the narrow channel between the Yucatan and the western tip of Cuba later on the 28th with winds of 130 mph, on the verge of Category 4 status. Alberto entered the Gulf of Mexico that day moving northwest, and upon entry, strengthened to its peak intensity with winds of 140 mph and a pressure of 947 mbar. However, wind shear was on the increase as the storm crawled to the north, and Alberto weakened to a Category 3 storm on May 30 when located about 400 miles SE of Houston, TX. Alberto weakened further through the day on May 31, as dry air began to enter the circulation. By 4 a.m. EST on June 1, Alberto had weakened to a Category 1 Hurricane with winds of 90 mph. It made landfall at Galveston, TX on the 1st, and pressed inland over Houston as it weakened to a tropical storm. The storm weakened further to a depression, and the depression dissipated over southern Oklahoma on June 2.
[edit] Damages
Damage from Alberto was severe in the Caribbean, but moderate in the United States. Barbados, St. Vincent, and St. Lucia all reported minor damages due to Alberto as it passed through as a minimal tropical storm. However, Jamaica was not so lucky. Damages there were reported as severe, and five people were killed due to flooding. The heavy winds of then-category 2 Alberto toppled trees and power lines there, killing another two due to electrocution. In the Cayman Islands, damage was the worst. Ten people were killed there due to the flooding rains as Alberto passed through as a Category 3 storm. Roofs were ripped off houses, and weak structures were obliterated by the high winds of Alberto. Damages in the Yucatan and the western tip of Cuba were light, as the storm passed between the two land masses, but a gust of 67 mph was felt in Cuba as the storm passed by. In the United States, damages were moderate because the storm had weakened to a Category 1, but five people were killed; two in Louisiana, and three in Texas due to a tornado spawned by the storm. A total of 1.2 Billion in damages was reported due to Alberto, and a total of 23 people were killed.
[edit] Tropical Storm Beryl
After more than three weeks of inactivity in the Atlantic basin, a strong area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche developed into Tropical Depression Two on June 28. The depression moved to the north and strengthened quickly into Tropical Storm Beryl on June 29 when located about 200 miles northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. Beryl continued north, but strengthened slowly as wind shear became more prominent. The storm reached its peak intensity at 5 p.m. EST on June 30 with winds of 65 mph and a pressure of 999 mbar. The storm maintained this intensity until it made landfall near Grand Isle, Louisiana at 5 a.m. EST on July 1. After landfall, Beryl northward continued over Lake Pontchatrain and the city of New Orleans later on the 1st, and dissipated over central Mississippi on July 2.
[edit] Damages
Despite fears of renewed flooding in Katrina-Ravaged New Orleans, damages were minimal, and rainfall was less significant that expected. Beryl also produced less storm surge (1-3ft) than what was expected. One man died in Florida while surfing due to a rip current. Damages were reported as minimal, with downed trees and power lines making up the majority of the 200 million in damages.
[edit] Tropical Storm Chris
On June 30, a tropical wave developed into Tropical Depression Three about 350 miles east of the Leeward Islands. The depression moved northward, but failed to strengthen because of wind shear until July 2 when it became organized enough to become Tropcial Storm Chris when located about 300 miles northeast of the Virgin Islands. Chris began to curve to the northwest around a ridge over the mid-Atlantic on July 3, and it reached a peak intensity at that time with winds of 55 mph and a pressure of 1002 mbar. The next day, the wind shear returned, and Chris began to slowly weaken as the convection became displaced from the center. The storm was downgraded to a depression on July 5 and it dissipated on July 6 about 500 miles north of Puerto Rico. It is worth noting that the remnant of Chris moved eastward and may have been part of the system that would later form Hurricane Ernesto.
[edit] Hurricane Debby
On July 6, the already active 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season continued with the formation of Tropical Depression Four about 400 miles east of Miami, Florida. The depression pressed westward and struck Eleuthera at 5 a.m. EST on July 7, and became Tropical Storm Debby at this time. Debby then struck the Bimini Islands with winds of 50 mph at 11 a.m. EST that day. Debby made landfall in central Miami at 3 p.m. EST on the 7th, with winds of 50 mph. The storm pressed across Florida for the rest of the day on the 7th, and re-emerged in the Gulf of Mexico after passing through Everglades City on July 8. Debby had weakened to winds of 40 mph by this time, but it quickly regained the lost strength as it pressed WNW through the Gulf of Mexico. Debby was upgraded to a hurricane while about 800 miles south of Tallahasse, Florida on July 9, and it turned to the north at this point due to a building ridge of high pressure over Texas. Intensification slowed greatly as it neared the Gulf Coast, and Debby reached its peak intensity with winds of 90 mph. It was able to retain this intensity until it made landfall near Mobile, Alabama at 2 a.m. EST on July 11. After landfall, Debby raced off to the northeast and re-emerged in the Atlantic off of North Carolina on July 13, by now it was a depression and remained so until it was absorbed into an extratropical system in the North Atlantic on July 14. Damages from Debby were reported as minimal. A total of 34 million was reported in Florida, and a total of 194 million was reported in Mississippi. A total of four people were killed in Mississippi, and one in Florida, all due to flooding.
[edit] Hurricane Ernesto
On July 19, an area of low pressure and a system which could have been the remains of Tropical Storm Chris formed into Tropical Depression Five, while just 25 miles north of the Dominican Republic. The depression moved to the WNW through the 19th, and became Tropical Storm Ernesto midday on July 20 when located about 100 miles north of Haiti. At this point, the ridge to the north of Ernesto began to degenerate, and the storm was allowed to turn to the northwest and enter the southern Bahamas on July 21. Ernesto struck Great Inagua early on the 21st with winds of 55 mph, and then Acklins Island on July 22 after becoming a hurricane with winds of approximately 80 mph. The storm strengthened rapidly as it approached Florida, and struck Long Island with 100 mph winds, and then passed through the Ezuma Cays with winds of 130 mph, now on the verge of Category 4 strength. By the time Ernesto struck New Providence, it was a Category 5 storm with winds of 160 mph and a pressure of 911 mbar, which would fall to a low of 909 mbar as it neared the south of Grand Bahama. Now moving to the NNW, Ernesto paralled the Florida coast on July 24, remaining a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds the whole time, and departing no further than 35 miles from the coast. The storm nearly made landfall near Cape Canaveral, Florida late on the 24th, which would have increased the already imminent devastation at the space station. By the time Ernesto made landfall at Savanna, Georgia on July 25, it had weakened somewhat to a Category 4 storm, but still packed winds of 140 mph. After landfall, the storm continued north and brought hurricane force winds as far inland as the eastern tip of Tennessee. After weakening to a depression, Ernesto followed a wobbly path around the eastern Great Lakes before finally dissipating late on July 29.
[edit] Devastation
Hurricane Ernesto devastated Florida, Georgia, and the Bahamas. The eastern Florida coast suffered incredible losses, with many houses along the coast completely flattened by the 140-160 mph winds that reached inland. The storm surge also devastated the area on the order of 20-25 feet. The greater Miami metro escaped the worst of the storm, as it remained 75 or more miles away, but the city still saw winds of 100-120 mph. The U.S. Space Station in Cape Canaveral also suffered incredible losses, with billions of dollars in damage just to the spacecraft. Forty-five people were killed in Florida alone due to Ernesto. Ernesto was the first Category 4 or higher ever to strike Georgia, and even the first hurricane in many years. Savanna, Georgia saw a gust of 159 mph, and sustained winds on the order of 130-150 mph.Augusta, Georgia saw winds from 110-130 mph, and the Atlanta metropolis reported a gust of 97 mph, with sustained winds above hurricane strength. South Carolina took a hit from Ernesto as well, with hurricane force winds felt through nearly the whole state with the exception of the extreme eastern area including Myrtle Beach. Damage in the United States by state were: Florida (35.7 Billion), Georgia - (5.1 Billion), South Carolina (2.1 Billion), Tennessee and North Carolina (400 Million). Total deaths by state were: Florida (45), Georgia (14), South Carolina (24). New York (1) - The New York death was due to a tornado spawned by the storm. In addition, 19 people were killed in the Bahamas which brings the total to 103. Damage figures for the Bahamas are not available, but 5 fatalities were reported.
[edit] Tropical Storm Florence
A stong tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa on August 1. The wave progressed westward and organized quickly, with deep convection developing near the center on August 2. On August 3, the wave was organized enough to become Tropical Depression Five when located about 150 miles southwest of the southwestern Cape Verde Islands, the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season's first of five Cape Verde storms. The depression originally moved to the west, but the mid-atlantic ridge began to degenerate after the storm developed, and it was immediately allowed to curve to the north. The depression became Tropical Storm Florence late on August 4 when located about 300 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. The northward motion quickly brought the storm into cooler waters, and higher wind shear, which only allowed the storm to reach a peak intensity of 50 mph winds on August 5. After this, the storm progressively weakened as it curved the north-northeast. Florence was downgraded to a tropical depression early on August 5 when located about 600 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The depression began to stall late on August 5 as it made a sharp and unexpected turn to the ESE, the cause was unknown, but believed to be related to a front that was in the area. After the depression gained its motion back, it lost tropical characteristics over the chilly waters of the North Atlantic on August 7. The remnant depression was tracked westward until August 8 when it became unrecognizable. The remnant later moved over the Canary Islands causing just brief periods of rain showers.
[edit] Hurricane Gordon
An area of low pressure that had stalled in the eastern Caribbean began to show signs of tropical development on August 3. The system became organized enough to be classified as Tropical Depression Seven on August 5 when located about 100 miles west of the far southern Lesser Antilles. The depression started out moving to the west, strengthening gradually in the process. The depression became Tropical Storm Gordon on August 6 when located about 400 miles ENE of Coro, Venezuela. Originally, Gordon was expected to continue west and possibly strike the United States, but the mid-atlantic ridge to the north of the system became stronger and began to push farther south, causing Gordon to track to the WSW starting on August 6 after reaching tropical storm strength. Gordon became a hurricane on August 7, and reached a first peak intensity early on August 9 with winds of 110 mph and a pressure of 966 mbar. At the time of peak intensity, the storm was located just about 25 miles to the ENE of Coro, Venezuela. Gordon made landfall at Coro a bit later on August 9 as a Category 2 storm with winds of 100 mph. After landfall, the mountainous terrain of Venezuela weakened the storm greatly, to a tropical storm by August 10. A front moved into the western Caribbean early on the 10th, and Gordon turned sharply to the north as a result, avoiding a landfall on the tip of Colombia. After re-entering the warm waters of the Caribbean, Gordon strengthened quickly, reaching Category 3 status on August 12, and its peak intenstiy with winds of 120 mph and a pressure of 957 mbar. Fortunately, increasing wind shear caused the storm to weaken to a Category 1 with winds of 85 mph by the time it struck the extreme eastern tip of the Dominican Republic, the island's first of four bouts with a tropical system in the 2006 season. Cooler waters, more wind shear, and an interaction with land proved all too much for Gordon, and it weakened to a tropical storm on August 14 after passing to the north of the island. Gordon weakened to a depression later on the 14th, and dissipated early on August 15. Damages were minimal for the most part, but Gordon did cause severe mudslides in Venezuela that killed 29. One man was killed near the Dominican Republic when his boat capsized.
[edit] Hurricane Helene
A tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa on July 27. The wave showed very few signs of organization until it entered the eastern Caribbean Sea and began to develop deep convection on August 5. Three days later, the wave had become organized enough to become the eighth Tropical Depression of the 2006 season while located in the southcentral Caribbean about 125 miles east of the northern tip of Nicaragua. In highly favorable conditions, the depression became Tropical Storm Helene just hours later, and began a northwestern track. On August 11, Helene reached hurricane status, but the pressure was still quite high - at 997 mbar. However, when the storm crossed the threshold of a Category 2 just six hours later, the pressure began to drop incredibly fast, as a rapid intensification cycle began. The pressure fell from 995 mbar at 6 am EST on the 11th of August, to 956 mbar in an estimated eight hours - one of the most rapid deepening phases ever observed. Now on the verge of Category 4 strength, Helene's eye was now quite visible and a large outflow was obtained. The storm reached its peak intensity on August 15, when the winds rose to an estimated 145 mph and the pressure fell to what was thought to be 941 mbar as it made landfall on the island of Cozumel, Mexico. The hurricane made landfall on the mainland Yucatan on Cancun just under an hour later, when winds were estimated to be the same, but further investigation could reveal that the winds were near Category 5 strength. A re-investigation of the pressure of the storm will also be conducted to determine if the storm did reach that particular threshold - much similar to what was done for Hurricane Emily in 2005. After landfall, the land interaction weakened the storm to a minimal hurricane, but the winds never receded to tropical storm force. This was followed by a turn to the north, and renewed strengthening as Helene moved into the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Helene became a dangerous Category 3 storm on August 18 when located about 200 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River near the devastated New Orleans, but wind shear from an approaching frontal zone caused a weakening of the storm to a Category 1 with winds of 80 mph when it made landfall at Venice, Louisiana on August 19. Helene then briefly passed over water again before making its final landfall about 9 miles west of Gulfport, Mississippi with winds of 75 mph. After landfall, Helene continued inland and dissipated over northern Alabama on August 21.
[edit] Tropical Storm Isaac
A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on August 20. The wave moved at a slow pace to the west over the course of the next few days, with little development. The wave turned to the WNW on August 26, and deep convection became persistent on the following day. An aircraft that flew into the system on August 28 discovered a closed circulation and winds of 36 mph, and the system was classified as the ninth depression of the season at that point. The depression was well north of the Caribbean Sea, so it was taken as a minor threat to land. The depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Isaac on August 29, and then strengthened quickly to its peak intensity with winds of 70 mph and a minimum pressure of 999 mbar just hours later on the 29th. This rapid intensification was forecast to continue, but increasing wind shear prevented this from occuring. Isaac turned more to the WNW on August 31 and accelerated in the process. The storm seemed headed for the United States at a rapid pace, but a swift cold front that swept off the eastern coast of the nation lead to a sharp northeastern turn. Isaac slowed dramatically on September 2, as it completed the turn to the northeast. For the past three days, the storm had been clinging to tropical storm status, but as it accelerated at speeds of 45 mph into colder waters, the extratropical transition began. The storm lost its tropical characteristics completely on September 5 over the waters of the North Atlantic. The remnant was tracked further north until it was absorbed into a larger storm near Iceland. No damages or casualties were reported due to Isaac.
[edit] Hurricane Joyce
On August 28, a tropical wave that mad moved off the coast of Africa several days earlier strengthened into Tropical Depression Ten, the second of a record three storms to form on the same day. A classic Cape Verde storm, it moved WNW and strengthened into Tropical Storm Joyce just later on the 28th, and became a hurricane on August 29. Warm waters and favorable outflow allowed a cycle of rapid intensification to begin on August 30 when the storm had a pressure of 987 mbar. When the cycle was complete just 18 hours later on August 31, the storm was a powerful and large Category 4 with sustained winds of 150 mph and a pressure of 934 mbar. The storm maintained Category 4 intensity for the next few days, as it turned more to the west, as the subtropical ridge to its north became the main steering factor. After completing the turn on September 3, Joyce briefly weakened to a Category 3 storm, most likely due to a small area of unseasonally cool waters that the storm moved over for a short period. Joyce accelerated on September 4 after regaining Cat 4 status, and as it neared the Lesser Antilles, watches and warnings were flagged on many islands. Another rapid deepening phase began on September 6, during which time the pressure dropped from 945 mbar to its peak intensity of 915 mbar, and the winds strengthened to 160 mph, making the storm a large and powerful Category 5 storm, the second of the season. This created panic in the northern island of the Lesser Antilles, but fortunately, Joyce turned sharply to the north and weakened to a Category 4 on September 7, a move that spared the islands from what could have been devastation. Nonetheless, the storm still came within 50 miles of Anguilla, and a wind gust of 98 mph was reported there. After Joyce turned to the north, it unexpectedly regained Category 5 status for a brief period before a steady weakening trend began. The storm weakened below the threshold of major hurricane status on September 10, and below hurricane status by September 15 in the northern waters of the Atlantic Ocean. At this time, the storm was on a fairly brisk pace to the northeast, but as steering currents slackened, the storm turned to the east and became extratropical later on the 15th. The remnant slowed even further and drifted to the southeast before dissipating on September 17.
[edit] Damages
The islands of Anguilla, Antigua, and Barbuda were greatly spared from the full effects of Hurricane Joyce. However, since the hurricane was so large and powerful when it passed within 50-100 miles of the islands, sustained winds surpassing hurricane strength were widespread. 3,000 homes were reported as damaged, and about 200 of these were completely destroyed. All of the homes that were destroyed were located on the beaches of the islands, which received storm surges on the order of 10-15 feet. In all, fifteen people were killed and damages totaled 900 million dollars.
[edit] Hurricane Kirk
On August 25, a frontal system stalled over the south central Atlantic Ocean, and a low pressure system developed quickly at the tail end of it. By August 28, the system had organized enough to be called Tropical Depression Eleven, the last of three storms to form on the same day. The subtropical ridge over the north Atlantic had broken down enough for the depression to immediately move to the north after forming. It strengthened into Tropical Storm Kirk on August 29, but further strengthening was slowed due to increasing wind shear. Eventually, as the storm moved north, it exited the harsh environment and became a hurricane on September 2 while located about 350 miles south of Bermuda. At this time, hurricane watches were flagged for the island, since Kirk posed an imminent threat to the area. The northward motion continued on September 3, followed by a slow and minute turn to the north-northwest, which led to a landfall on the extreme eastern tip of the island on September 4, with winds of 90 mph. After striking the island, Kirk turned to the northwest and accelerated as a high pressure system built over the Bahamas. The storm finally was able to strengthen into a Category 2 on September 7 when it appeared headed for the coast of New Jersey. This motion to the NW came to a halt on September 8, as the storm sharply turned to the northeast in advance of an approaching cold front. The turn was not quick enough, however, to prevent the landfall that occured on September 10 at Cape Cod, Massachusetts as a Category 2. The path took it within 20 miles from the greater Boston area, bringing winds of 105 mph there, while hurricane force winds extended as far inland as New Hampshire. Fortunately, Icelandic Hurricane was not killed during the storm's assault on the state. After briefly moving inland, Kirk weakened to a Category 1 before striking New Brunswick on September 12 with winds of 80 mph. After this landfall, the storm drastically decreased in organization and weakened to a tropical storm prior to emerging in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and regaining hurricane strength. Kirk's final landfall occured in Newfoundland on September 13 with winds of 75 mph. After this, the storm was so tattered and torn that it could no longer retain tropical characteristics, and it weakened to an extratropical storm on September 14.
[edit] Damages
Kirk was one of the few and rare storms to strike the heavily populated New England region. The fact that it was a powerful Category 2 at landfall makes it even more unique. The storm had a large amount of impact for its intensity, due to the landfall being very near the large city of Boston. Many beach homes along the Cape Cod region were completely destoryed by the storm surge on the order of 7-12 feet that was reported. In the greater Boston area, heavy rains and pounding winds caused widespread power outages, torn off roofs, down trees, and street flooding. A huge number of cars - about 2,500 - were destroyed due to the floodwaters of Kirk. Over 150,000 homes were damaged, and of these, 10,000 homes reported flooded basements beyond repair. The damages in Massachusetts alone totaled 5.3 Billion dollars. In southern New Hampshire and parts of coastal Maine, hurricane force winds were reported along with downed trees and power lines. Damages in these states totaled 700 Million dollars, bringing the total near 6 Billion. A total of 24 people were killed due to Kirk; all in Massachusetts.
[edit] Tropical Storm Leslie
A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on August 22. The wave moved west through the Atlantic with little or no development for the next week, and passed to the north of the Lesser Antilles on August 27. On August 30, when the system neared the Bahamas, a hurricane hunter flight was dispatched, and a closed circulation was found, which led to the formation of Tropical Depression Twelve that day. Immediately, watches and warnings were flagged for the Florida coast, due to the storm's proximity to land as it moved to the WNW. The storm passed to the north of the eastern Bahamas, avoiding many of the islands. Despite being in what appeared to be a favorable area for development, the depression did not become Tropical Storm Leslie until late on August 31 as it passed north of Acklins Island. Leslie turned more to the west on September 1, and then made landfall just south of the Miami metro area with winds of 70 mph at about 7 PM EST that day. After landfall, Leslie quickly weakened to a tropical depression before re-emerging into the Gulf of Mexico on September 2. The storm turned to the north after this, and made its final landfall near Port St. Joe on the southern nook of the Florida Peninsula with winds of 40 mph; an area that is rarely struck by a tropical cyclone, but would be hit a total of two times in the 2006 season. After the landfall, the storm continued north and weakened to a depression over Alabama on September 4, and dissipated in the early hours of September 5 over Kentucky. Damages were minimal for the most part, with the majority of them occuring in the Miami area, where sporatic downed trees and power lines were reported, accompanied by minor street flooding. Two people were killed when their car was overtaken by the waters, and damages totaled 120 million dollars.
[edit] Hurricane Michael
A tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa into the eastern Atlantic Ocean on August 29. Already quite organized, the wave became Tropical Depression Thirteen by 1 AM EST on August 31 while located just a short distance south of the Cape Verde Islands. The depression progressed westward with little strengthening due to increasing wind shear, but managed to become Tropical Storm Michael by September 2. Michael continued the movement to the west, and accelerated slightly on September 3, while strengthening at a slow pace. Despite high wind shear from an approaching frontal area, Michael strengthened into a hurricane on September 5 while located a bit over midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Michael reached its peak intensity just hours later, with winds of 80 mph and a pressure of 986 mbar. For the next few days, under moderate wind shear, Michael was forced to weaken slightly and remain a minimal hurricane. The storm slowed and turned to the north early on September 8, and weakened to a tropical storm on September 10 as it began to accelerate into colder waters. The tropical storm then degenerated into an extratropical remnant on September 11 that was tracked even faster to the northeast before it merged with another system.
[edit] Hurricane Nadine
A tropical wave that had moved off the west coast of Africa began to develop significantly when it reached the southern portion of the eastern Caribbean Sea on September 7. The wave continued to develop on that day, and reached depression status on September 8, while located about 100 miles north of Guyana, South America. Since being located farther south than a typical storm, the depression began to flirt with the northern edge of South America - and strengthening was put on hold. The depression is estimated to have become Tropical Storm Nadine at nearly the same time on September 9 that it struck Isla de Margarita, an island located north of Venezuela. A landfall on the northern tip of the Venezuelan Coast occured shortly after when the winds were estimated at near 60 mph. After passing over the small land area, it curved WSW and re-entered the Caribbean. Hours after this, Nadine regained storm strength and accelerated into a curve that would take it back to the WNW on September 11. After the curve took place, Nadine reached hurricane strength and slowed in foreward speed until it made landfall near Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua on September 12 when winds were at 90 mph and the pressure was about 978 mbar - which would be the storm's peak intensity. After wreaking havoc on the coast, Nadine moved inland and weakened to a tropical depression as it moved to the northwest. The depression then emerged in the Caribbean Sea again on September 14 and regained tropical storm strength for the third time, before making a third landfall at Belize City, Belize on September 15 with winds of 55 mph. Nadine quickly weakened to a depression after this landfall, and nearly dissipated before emerging in the Gulf of Mexico on September 17. Normally, this would be followed by a rapid strengthening phase, but moderate shear values prevented this. Eventually, though, Nadine regained tropical storm status for its final time on September 19. The storm then continued to strengthen and reached hurricane status once again on September 20 and made landfall about 18 hours later near Corpus Christi, Texas with winds of 85 mph at 4 am EST on September 21. A cold front moving through the plains then swept the storm off to the northeast as it weakened quickly, where it dissipated on September 23.
[edit] Hurricane Oscar
A tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa on September 8. Under moderate wind shear, it failed to develop over the next several days as it moved to the WNW in the tropical Atlantic. On September 13, however, a flare of convection near the center brought renewed organization, and the wave is estimated to have become Tropical Depression Fifteen at 4 am EST on the following day. The depression was quick to strengthen further, and became Tropical Storm Oscar just 12 hours later – the first storm to receive that particular name. Oscar continued to quickly strengthen and almost became a hurricane on September 15 when winds peaked at 70 mph, but a return of wind shear brought strengthening to a halt, and the winds slackened to 55 mph later on the 15th. The next day, Oscar was able to strengthen again as the wind shear lightened up, and it finally managed to reach hurricane strength at 3 pm EST on September 16. Now passing to the north of the eastern Caribbean Sea, the storm continued on a WNW heading, and remained far from the islands. Despite forecasts of rapid strengthening, Oscar remained a minimal hurricane throughout the day on September 16, and into the 17th as the pressure gradually rose, which was due in part to Hurricane Nadine located to the storm’s south. After weakening to a tropical storm on September 18, Oscar began to turn more and more to the west in response to a tightening of the Bermuda high to its north – a path that flagged hurricane watches for the southern Bahamas. Oscar regained hurricane status on September 19, and struck Acklins Island directly on the following day, when winds were estimated at 90 mph. Category 2 status was obtained shortly after, and Oscar struck the southern portion of Long Island at its peak intensity with winds of 105 mph and a pressure of 975 mbar. The hurricane passed narrowly through the Florida Strait on September 21, and made a direct strike on Key West with winds of 100 mph the following day. At this point, as Oscar moved into the Gulf of Mexico, a front progressing across the eastern states turned the storm sharply to the northeast, and weakened it to a Category 1 in the process for a brief time. The final landfall occurred near Port St. Joe, Florida on September 24 on the southward protruding “hump” of the Florida panhandle – an area that is rarely struck directly by hurricanes with winds of 100 mph and a pressure of 983 mbar, making the storm a Category 2. After landfall, Oscar refused to quit as it slowly weakened to a tropical depression over North Carolina, and exited the coast into the Atlantic Ocean on September 27. At this point, the unexpected happened when Oscar briefly regained tropical storm status before becoming extratropical over the north Atlantic Ocean on September 28.
[edit] Damages
Damages from Hurricane Oscar were quite severe, particularly in Key West, where a relatively heavily populated area became inundated by a storm surge of 9-12 feet, submerging thousands of cars and killing fifteen people in total. Total Damages in the Florida Keys were reported at 2.7 Billion US dollars. In the Bahamas, Acklins Island reported a storm surge of 8 feet, accompanied by gusty winds reaching the threshold of Category 2 strength at times, however no fatalites were reported there. In the other areas in the southern Bahamas, including Long Island, a total of 400 million dollars was reported in damages. In mainland Florida, damages were reported as severe, but since the storm struck an area housing no more than 10,000 people, damages were limited to 400 million dollars, but three were killed due to electrocution. In total, 18 people died as a result of the storm, and 3.5 Billion was reported in damages.
[edit] Hurricane Patty
A tropical wave that had moved off the west coast of Africa on September 18 began to develop significantly on September 22, and was deemed the sixteenth tropical depression of the season on the next day. Just six hours later, the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Patty, a first usage for the particular name. Further strengthening was delayed, however, due to an unusually large swath of high wind shear values. In the early morning hours of September 28, after traveling westward for several days, Patty sliced into the Lesser Antilles between Martinique and Dominica on the verge of becoming a hurricane, with winds of 70 mph. Soon after, Patty entered the Caribbean Sea and was upgraded to a hurricane at the next advisory. Over the next few days, the hurricane continued to strengthen and reached its first peak intensity on September 30 when winds reached 125 mph, and the pressure plummeted to 953 mbar - making the storm a potent Category 3. After this, the pressure slowly but steadily rose, and the winds dropped to 115 mph, and remained at that speed for several days. The storm swiped within 50 miles south of Haiti on October 2, causing gusts up to 71 mph on the southern portion of Hispaniola. Shortly after, Patty made a direct landfall on Jamaica as a fierce Category 3 storm with winds that briefly reached 120 mph - and moved over the central portion of the island for the next few hours. After trampling over Jamaica and causing hurricane force winds completely throughout the island, Patty weakened to a Category 2 on October 3 and slammed directly onto Grand Cayman with winds of 105 mph. At this point, the storm made a gradual turn to the north and weakened to a Category 1 for a brief time period on October 4, before regaining strength and making landfall on the extreme western tip of Cuba in the early morning hours of the 5th as a Cat. 3 with winds of 125 mph and a pressure of 956 mbar. After entering the Gulf of Mexico several hours later, Patty reached its peak intensity with winds of 130 mph and a pressure of 947 mbar. Fortunately, a cold front sweeping across the United States induced weakening on October 6, just prior to the storm's landfall which made the storm a Category 2 by the time it made landfall just 10 miles east of Pensacola, Florida with winds of 105 mph and a pressure of 962 mbar. After landfall, Patty quickly weakened to a depression and slowed into a curve to the south on October 8 before it dissipated later that day.
[edit] Damages
Patty caused remarkable damage all across the Caribbean Sea during its lifetime. Beginning in Martinique and Dominica, trees fell and caused power outages due to the high winds as the storm roared past nearing hurricane strength. Minor street flooding was also reported in these locations. In Haiti and the SW portion of the Dominican Republic, the Cat. 3 storm brought wind gusts to near hurricane force which toppled trees. In addition, heavy rainfall was also a problem in these areas where it caused mudslides. Jamaica, however, was the hardest hit, as the 120-mph storm slammed and sliced across the midsection of the island, bringing winds of over 90 mph to every inch of the island, causing heavy rains, and inundating nearly the entire island with a storm surge of 10-15 feet. The extreme western tip of Cuba was also affected by the storm, as it swiped that area at its peak intensity with winds of 125 mph, causing similar effects as the storm did in Jamaica, but much less widespread because it only affected the extreme western portion. In the United States the landfalling Category 2 storm caused widespread power outages, fallen trees, high winds, heavy flooding, and storm surges of 8-11 feet in the Florida panhandle, and the southern tips of Alabama and Mississippi. Damages totaled 1.4 Billion in just Jamaica, where the entire island was devastated, and an additional 1.3 Billion in the United States. The casualty count totaled 35, 33 of which occured in the southern portion of Haiti, where mudslides wreaked havoc. The other two fatalities occured in Jamaica.
[edit] Tropical Storm Rafael
On September 30, an area of low pressure developed at the tail end of a front that had moved off the eastern United States coast several days earlier. Under the warm waters and favorable conditions that made the 2006 season so active, the low was able to quickly strengthen into Tropical Depression Seventeen just the following day while located just 15 miles east of Bermuda. The depression moved to the SSW at first, with its direction governed by an area of high pressure to it's west. The depression became Tropical Storm Rafael late on on October 2, as it began to turn to the west around the same high pressure system. With further strengthening limited by increasing wind shear, Rafael did not strengthen any further and remained a minimal storm with winds of 40 mph until it weakened to a tropical depression on October 3 for a brief time. The storm was able to regain tropical storm strength about 12 hours later, as it began to turn to the WNW - sparing Florida from a landfall. At this time, the shear lightened up and Rafael strengthened into a 55-mph storm with a pressure of 996 mbar as it made landfall in the Savanna, Georgia metropolitan area. After landfall, a powerful front moving across the eastern side of the United States swept Rafael quickly and abruptly to the east, bringing a quicker return to sea. After re-entering the Atlantic Ocean on October 4 after churning through South Carolina, the storm weakened briefly to a depression before it regained storm strength in the Gulf Stream waterse just hours later. With 45 mph winds, Rafael swept as close as 50 miles to Cape Cod, MA on October 5, and then made landfall on Nova Scotia hours later with winds of the same speed. Rafael later entered the St. Lawrence Bay before making a second Canadian landfall, this time in Newfoundland, before it dissipated over that province. No casualties were reported due to Rafael, but minimal damages estimated at 25 million dollars did occur in the states of South Carolina and Georgia.
[edit] Tropical Storm Sandy
A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on September 30, and preceded west through the tropical Atlantic with little development over the next several days. The wave found a weakness in the mid-atlantic ridge and began to turn to the north on October 4, when it suddenly became quite organized and formed the Eighteenth tropical depression of the season that day. The depression continued to strengthen and became Tropical Storm Sandy two advisories later, but wind shear became quite strong after this, and the storm was forced back into depression status upon the next re-examination. The depression was now headed on a northward track which took it into an area of even more harsh conditions, which degenerated the system into an open wave by October 5 as it curved slightly to the NNE. Despite the loss of tropical characteristics, the former-Sandy was cautiously watched by officials, and the watching paid off on October 8 when the sytem regained tropical depression status, and began a period of rapid intensification. The storm reformed into T.S. Sandy hours later over the far north Atlantic, and it reached its peak intensity with winds of 65 mph and a pressure of 989 mbar before becoming extratropical on October 9. The extratropical remnant continued north and remained a powerful ocean-going storm before dissipating near Iceland on October 13. No damages or casualties were reported due to Sandy.
[edit] Hurricane Tony
Terrible Tony will arrive on April 22.
[edit] Tropical Depression Twenty
Terrible Twenty will arrive on April 23.
[edit] Hurricane Valerie
[edit] Hurricane William
[edit] 2006 Storm Names
The following names were used for the tropical storms and hurricanes that formed in the North Atlantic in 2006. This was the same list used for the 2000 season, except for Kirk, which replaced the retired name Keith. Storms were named Kirk, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, and William for the first time in 2006.
- Alberto
- Beryl
- Chris
- Debby
- Ernesto
- Florence
- Gordon
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- Helene
- Isaac
- Joyce
- Kirk
- Leslie
- Michael
- Nadine
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- Oscar
- Patty
- Rafael
- Sandy
- Tony
- Valerie
- William
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- Alpha
- Beta
- Gamma
- Delta
- Epsilon
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[edit] Timeline
The above timeline shows the duration and time periods in which the storms of 2006 existed. It clearly shows the unique and record-breaking formation of three storms; Isaac, Joyce, and Kirk all on the same day - August 28. In addition, the timeline shows Tony, Valerie, and William all existing simultaneously in November, an event that has never occured before. Perhaps the most incredible feat of all, is the five simultaneous storms; Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, and Michael all existing at the same time. It is unusual to have three storms at the same time, and only once have four storms co-existed. The 2006 Season is the first in recorded history to have five co-existing storms, and likely the first and only time in the past three centuries. The 2006 Season was characterized by many long lasting storms which led to large storm overlap periods, more than any other season.
