United States presidential election, 2008

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Presidential electoral votes by state
Presidential electoral votes by state

The United States presidential election of 2008 will be held on November 4, 2008. The election will determine electors for the United States Electoral College. Whoever receives a majority of votes in the Electoral College will be the 44th President of the United States, and whichever vice presidential candidate receives a majority of votes will be the 47th Vice President of the United States, assuming that George W. Bush and Dick Cheney serve the remainder of their terms. If no presidential candidate receives a majority in the Electoral College, then the president-elect is selected by a vote of the House of Representatives. If no vice presidential candidate receives a majority, then the vice president-elect is selected by a vote of the Senate.

As in the 2004 presidential election, the allocation of electoral votes to each state will be partially based on the 2000 Census. The president-elect and vice president-elect will be inaugurated Tuesday, January 20, 2009.

Contents

[edit] 2008 presidential election characteristics

[edit] First election without incumbents since 1952

When a United States President leaves office, his Vice President is more often than not considered a leading candidate and likely nominee to succeed him. The 2008 presidential election, however, will likely be the first Presidential election since 1952 in which there is no incumbent president seeking re-election and no incumbent vice-president attempting to win office (not seeking a party's presidential nomination).

In the three most recent presidential administrations featuring an outgoing, two-term president (those of Eisenhower, Reagan, and Clinton), the incumbent Vice President has immediately thereafter run for President. (Richard Nixon lost the 1960 election, George H. W. Bush won the 1988 election, and Al Gore lost the 2000 election.)

In the 1968 election, Lyndon Johnson, at first, decided to seek re-election. He entered the New Hampshire primary and won. However, he had a national poll conducted, which yielded results against his favor. Therefore, in a nationally televised speech, Johnson announced to the public that he would not seek re-election. Incumbent Vice President Hubert Humphrey then chose to run and was the eventual Democratic nominee.

The other recent Vice Presidents, such as Dan Quayle and Walter Mondale, have also run for president at various times. Mondale succeeded his President, the one-term Jimmy Carter, as his party's candidate, and Quayle was unsuccessful in winning the nomination for the country's highest office.

The current Vice President of the United States, Dick Cheney, announced in 2001 that he would never run for president, a statement he re-iterated in 2004. While appearing on Fox News Sunday, Cheney stated: "I will say just as hard as I possibly know how to say... If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve."[1] The 2008 race, therefore, will apparently be a non-incumbent or "open seat" election in which neither the sitting President nor the sitting Vice President will be a candidate, the first time since 1928.[2]

This was the case in the Presidential contest in 1952. In the general election that year, the race was between Republican candidate Dwight D. Eisenhower and Democratic candidate Adlai Stevenson; earlier that year, sitting President Harry S. Truman's name was on the ballot in the New Hampshire primary, even though he had already announced that he would not seek another term. He lost to Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver and formally withdrew his name from consideration. Also in 1952, Vice President Alben Barkley sought but failed to win the Democratic nomination.

[edit] "The most expensive election in American history"

In January 2007, Federal Election Commission Chairman Michael Toner stated that the 2008 U.S. presidential race will be "the most expensive election in American history." Toner estimated that the 2008 race will be a "$1 billion election," and that to be "taken seriously," a candidate will need to raise at least $100 million by the end of 2007.

The reported cost of campaigning for President has risen significantly in recent years. One source reported that if the costs for both Democratic and Republican campaigns are added together (for the Presidential primary election, general election, and the political conventions) the costs have more than doubled in only eight years ($448.9 million in 1996, $649.5 million in 2000, and $1.01 billion in 2004).[3]

[edit] Timeline

Main article: U.S. presidential election, 2008 timeline

[edit] Early stages

Candidates began to emerge during 2006, where the first cattle calls were held and at least two straw polls were taken. In 2007, because of the long lead time for fund-raising and because Federal election laws require the reporting of funds raised for the primary elections, fund-raising began in earnest.

The pre-primary season began even before the 2006 Congressional elections, with most of the potential candidates forming exploratory committees or announcing their candidacies outright. The main focus of these committees was to gain media attention and fund-raising. This was done primarily through broadcast media discussions by various pundits and a series of events sponsored by the different parties during 2007, including debates, straw polls, and other events designed to give voters a chance to get to know the candidates. The Democrats, for example, hosted a series of candidate forums and debates in Nevada, which began on February 21, as well as hosting a debate in New Hampshire on April 5 and one in South Carolina on April 26.

The Republican Party is also planning events for the candidates, such as televised debates in New Hampshire on April 4 and in South Carolina on May 3, as well as the traditional Ames Straw Poll in Iowa on August 11. In 1999, two of the nine candidates that participated in the straw poll dropped out of the race for the 2000 nomination after faring poorly there.

By the beginning of March, 2007, six candidates had achieved "front runner" status, three in each major party: John McCain of Arizona, Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Rudy Giuliani of New York on the Republican side[4][5]; and John Edwards of North Carolina, Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Clinton of New York on the Democratic.

In early straw polling at cattle call events, all three front-runner Republicans managed to win substantial support. Except for a county convention in South Carolina, there has yet to be any Democratic straw polling.

The Associated Press reported on March 4, 2007, that Democratic presidential candidate and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson has stated that he believes the Democratic Party contest may be over by the end of January 2008 after the first four state caucuses and primaries have been completed (Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina). Richardson's comments were made at a campaign breakfast event in Des Moines, Iowa.[6]

With Tom Vilsack dropping out of the race, Bill Richardson remains as the only governor running for the Democratic party's nomination.

According to a poll featured on ABC News and released February 2007, 65% of respondents stated that they are following the 2008 election closely.

[edit] Official primary/caucus dates

Delegates to national party conventions are selected through direct primary elections, state caucuses, and state conventions. The process continues through June, but in previous cycles, the Democratic and Republican candidates were effectively chosen by the March primaries. This is due to winning candidates collecting a majority of committed delegates to win their party's nomination. Most third parties select delegates to their national conventions through state conventions.

February 5, 2008, looks set to be a decisive date, one month before the traditional Super Tuesday, as up to twenty states with half of the United States' population are moving to hold their primaries on what is being called National Presidential Primary Day or Giga Tuesday.[7][8][9]

[edit] Democratic primaries and caucuses

Main article: Democratic Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008

In 2008, Nevada will join Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina in early Democratic Party primary elections.

[edit] Republican primaries and caucuses

Main article: Republican Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008

[edit] Later events

[edit] Candidates and potential candidates

Politicians with ambition have begun to express formally their desire for the presidency in the form of "exploratory committees," which allows the hopeful to raise money and travel without having to follow certain financial restrictions mandated by federal law. With official events, such as debates and candidate forums, beginning as early as February 2007, the status of a candidate will be based on whether or not he or she is invited. Several minor candidates in the past have tried to litigate their way in, generating some publicity but little public support.

[edit] Conditions for listing a candidate

As stated above, the election is currently in its early stages and some candidates are not yet official.

  1. Private Official Campaign Web Site, Required Data
    1. Private web page (non-free web page)
    2. Statement of FEC Status

Also adhere to the conditions in the relevant main article about the party's candidates.

[edit] Democratic Party

Main article: Official and potential 2008 United States presidential election Democratic candidates

Candidates who have filed with the FEC for the Democratic Party:

Candidates who have formed exploratory committees, but not yet filed with the FEC:

Individuals who have expressed serious interest:

Individuals frequently mentioned as possible candidates:

Note: Former Governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa, a presidential candidate from November 30, 2006 to February 23, 2007, withdrew due to a lack of funds.[11]

[edit] Republican Party

Main article: Official and potential 2008 United States presidential election Republican candidates

Candidates who have filed with the FEC for the Republican Party:

Candidates who have formed exploratory committees, but not yet filed with the FEC:

Individuals who have expressed serious interest:

[edit] Minor parties

Main article: Official and potential 2008 United States presidential election third party candidates

[edit] Constitution Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Constitution Party (United States):

[edit] Green Party

Individuals frequently mentioned as possible candidates:

[edit] Libertarian Party

Official candidates who have filed with the FEC for the Libertarian Party:

Announced candidates:

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy:

[edit] Independents

Official candidates who have filed with the FEC as independent candidates:

Individuals frequently mentioned as possible candidates:

[edit] Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008
See also: Opinion polling for the Democratic Party (United States) 2008 presidential candidates
See also: Opinion polling for the Republican Party (United States) 2008 presidential candidates
See also: Opinion polling for the Democratic Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008
See also: Opinion polling for the Republican Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008

[edit] Possible electoral college changes

In 2007, Rep. Thomas M. Davis (R-VA) introduced the "DC Fair and Equal House Voting Rights Act of 2007" in the U.S. House. If enacted, the act would have the effect of increasing the size of the electoral college by 1. The bill's primary purpose is to give House representation to the District of Columbia. The Congressional Research Service has determined that if passed, the bill would likely be found unconstitutional.[21]

The bill also grants, for partisan balancing, an additional House seat to Utah, which very narrowly missed gaining another seat in the 2000 census, and increases Utah's electoral votes by 1, since Utah is likely to vote Republican and the District of Columbia is likely to vote Democratic. However, this will only be valid until the next census, when the extra seat will be reapportioned like all other seats. The District of Columbia's electoral vote count would remain unchanged at 3, as required by the 23rd amendment. The likely effect of the change, if enacted, on the 2008 presidential election would be to give a +1 advantage to the Republican candidate: Utah has not been carried by a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, and in the most recent election gave the Republican 71% of the vote. Even though the size of the electoral college would increase to 539, a candidate would still need 270 electoral votes to win.

Also, the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is a proposed agreement between states in the United States dealing with their allocation of electoral votes. This interstate compact would effectively shift the method of election of the President of the United States to a national popular vote system. By the terms of the compact, states agree to give all of their electoral votes to the national popular vote winner, regardless of the balance of votes in their own states. The compact would only go into effect once it was joined by states representing a majority of the electoral college.

[edit] See also

[edit] References

  1. ^ Transcript: Vice President Cheney on 'FOX News Sunday' (Reprint). FOX News Sunday. FOXNews.com (2005-02-07). Retrieved on November 14, 2006.
  2. ^ Will, George F.. "Allen's Fumbles, Romney's Gain", The Washington Post, 2006-11-01. Retrieved on March 12, 2007.
  3. ^ Kennedy, Helen. "Wanna be Prez? First get $100M", New York Daily News, 2007-01-14. Retrieved on February 1, 2007.
  4. ^ Sidoti, Liz. "Romney Tops Straw Poll of GOP Activists", CBS News, 2007-03-04. Retrieved on March 4, 2007.
  5. ^ "McCain wins GOP presidential straw poll", thestate.com, 2007-03-03. Retrieved on March 4, 2007.
  6. ^ Associated Press. "Richardson: 4 States Will Decide Nominee", The New York Times, 2007-03-04. Retrieved on March 4, 2007.
  7. ^ Dick Morris. "Only Strong Will Survive This Big Bang", 2007-03-02. Retrieved on March 5, 2007.
  8. ^ Cameron, Carl. "Feb. 5: National Presidential Primary Day?", Fox News, 2007-02-26. Retrieved on March 6, 2007.
  9. ^ Ball, Molly. "2008 Nomination: GOP feeling need to compete", Las Vegas Review-Journal, 2007-03-01. Retrieved on March 6, 2007.
  10. ^ Cillizza, Chris, Shailagh Murray. "Gore Leaves Door Ajar for 2008", The Washington Post, 2007-01-07. Retrieved on February 15, 2007.
  11. ^ Beaumont, Thomas. "Vilsack drops out of prez race", Des Moines Register, 2007-02-23. Retrieved on February 26, 2007.
  12. ^ MSNBC staff. "Giuliani confirms he’s running in 2008", MSNBC, 2007-02-15. Retrieved on February 15, 2007.
  13. ^ Easton, Nina. "Gingrich '08: The stealth candidate" (Reprint), Fortune, CNNMoney.com, 2006-11-20. Retrieved on November 20, 2006.
  14. ^ Howard, Ed. "Hagel In 2008 Doesn't Do Much For Nebraska Voters In 2006", Nebraska State Paper, 2006-11-14. Retrieved on November 19, 2006.
  15. ^ "Statement by U.S. Senator Chuck Hagel on His Political Future", The Washington Post, 2007-03-12. Retrieved on March 12, 2007.
  16. ^ Brennan, Phil. "Michael Savage Mulls Presidential Run", NewsMax.com, 2007-02-06. Retrieved on February 15, 2007.
  17. ^ Bolton, Alexander. "Another Hollywood star steps forward for GOP", thehill.com, 2007-03-09. Retrieved on March 12, 2007.
  18. ^ Corsi, Jerome R.. "Founder of Minutemen targets run for president", World Net Daily, 2006-04-30. Retrieved on November 14, 2006.
  19. ^ Party, Green. "Elaine Brown to Seek Green Party Presidential Ticket", Green Line, 2007-02.
  20. ^ Moulton, Chuck (2007-02-19). barry hess. lpradicals. Yahoo! Groups. Retrieved on February 21, 2007.
  21. ^ Sheridan, Mary Beth. "Report Questions Constitutionality of Giving D.C. a Vote", The Washington Post, 2007-02-13. Retrieved on March 1, 2007.

[edit] External links

News media

[edit] Navigation

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United States presidential election, 2008
Democratic primaries • Democratic primary polls • Democratic Convention Republican primaries • Republican primary polls • Republican Convention
Republican Candidates' Beliefs

Candidates: Biden • Dodd • Edwards (campaign ,views) • Clinton (campaign, views)(See discussion) • Gravel (campaign, views) • Kucinich • Obama (campaign, views)

Candidates with exploratory committees: Richardson

Potential candidates: Clark • Gore

Candidates: Brownback • Cox • Giuliani (campaign, views) • Hunter • McCain (campaign, views) • Paul (campaign, views) • Romney (campaign, views) • Tancredo • T. Thompson (campaign, views)

Candidates with exploratory committees: Gilmore • Huckabee

Potential candidates: Gingrich • Hagel • Pataki • F. Thompson

Announced Third party candidates: Amondson (Prb.) • E. Brown (Grn.) • Burns (Lib.) • Hollist (Lib.) • Imperato (Ref.) • Kubby (Lib.) • Milnes (Lib.) • Parker (IGVA) • Phillies (Lib.), (Campaign) • C Smith (Lib.) • Stanhope (Lib.) • Swift (Grn.) • D. Thompson (Cst.)

Notable independent candidates: Moriarty • Schriner • Weltman • Bloomberg (unofficial)
General articles: Opinion polling (D • R) • Election timeline
Other 2008 elections: House • Senate • Gubernatorial
Federal Election Commission: Campaign filings of 2008 Presidential hopefuls
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