United States House elections, 2008

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

You have new messages (last change).
Voting box icon This article or section contains information about an
upcoming or ongoing election in the United States.
Content may change dramatically as the election approaches and unfolds.		 United States flag

Elections for the United States House of Representatives will be held on November 4, 2008, with all of the 435 seats in the House being contested. Since Representatives are elected for two-year terms, those elected will serve in the 111th United States Congress from January 3, 2009 until January 3, 2011.

The 2008 Presidential election, 2008 Senate elections, 2008 state gubernatorial elections will occur on the same date, as well as many other state and local elections.

Contents

[edit] Predictions

The Hotline's John Mercurio has said that the Democrats may well lose their House majority in the 2008 elections.

ElectionProjection.com's Scott Elliott, however, says that the Democratic majority will be tough to beat. At most, he says, the GOP can take back fourteen House seats - two short of a majority.[1]

Democrats fear that some of their incoming freshman, many of whom were elected in predominantly Republican districts, may lose their seats in 2008.

[edit] Composition going into the elections

The current composition of the House stands at 233 Democrats and 201 Republicans, with one vacancy in Georgia's 10th district, and no members belonging to other parties. The vacant seat was held by Republican Rep. Charlie Norwood, who died on February 13, 2007.

[edit] Potential races

The Democrats will control the 110th Congress and the House of Representatives.

Factors that could make the races seen below competitive include:

Factor Reason Example
Age The incumbent will be at least 70 years of age on Election Day 2008, and may opt to retire rather than run for another term, leaving their seat open. Several representatives are at least 70 years of age, with the oldest being Ralph Hall (R-TX), age 83.
Cabinet appointments Some districts could become open should the incumbent be appointed to a position within the Bush Administration. Two members of the 109th Congress, Rob Portman (R-OH), now the United States Trade Representative and Chris Cox (R-CA), now chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, were the most recent representatives to defect to the Bush Administration.
District Demographics The incumbent represents a district leans or strongly favors the opposing party. For example, an incumbent Republican representing a district that went to John Kerry or barely went to George W. Bush in 2004 could be vulnerable, especially if the incumbent received no more than 55% of the vote. There are, as of the 2006 elections, about 70 Democratic seats won by Bush in 2004, compared to 4 Republican seats won by Kerry. This is a change from (as of 2004) 44 Democrats in seats Bush won in both 2000 and 2004, as opposed to 11 Republicans in districts won by Gore and Kerry. Christopher Shays (R-CT) and Chet Edwards (D-TX) represent districts that favor the opposing party. Additionally, Tom Davis (R-VA) represents a swing (but Democratic-trending) district while Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) represents a district that is politically balanced and known for competitive races.
Governor Controversies Some House races could also be affected by an unpopular governor if the incumbent's party is the same as that of the governor. For example, some Indiana and Missouri races involving incumbent Republicans could be affected by the unpopularity of their Republican governors. Mark Souder (R-IN), Ron Lewis and Geoff Davis (both R-KY), Charlie Melancon (D-LA), and Michael McCaul and Pete Sessions (R-TX), all of whom represent states with unpopular or controversial governors from their parties.
Health Issues The incumbent has constant health issues and could either be forced into early retirement, forgo plans for a re-election bid, or die during their term in Congress. A special election has been scheduled for the seat of Charlie Norwood (R-GA), who died February 13, 2007. Additionally, Elton Gallegly (R-CA) and Bill Young (R-FL) pondered retirement for health reasons before running for re-election 2006.
Higher office aspirations The incumbent might consider running for higher political office, whether it is for a U.S. Senate seat, the Governor's Mansion, or for mayor of a major city. Mark Udall (D-CO) will run for the U.S. Senate seat of retiring Senator Wayne Allard (R-CO). Additionally, Bobby Jindal and Lynn Westmoreland have been rumored to consider future runs for governor in Louisiana and Georgia, respectively, and Chaka Fattah is running for mayor of Philadelphia. Democratic New York congressman Anthony Weiner is also rumored to be considering a run for mayor of New York City in 2009.
Redistricting Some incumbents could become vulnerable if redistricting affects their districts to the point that it favors the opposing party. For example, a Democrat could become vulnerable if his Democratic-leaning district becomes more Republican. Two recent redistrictings, in Texas in 2003 and in Georgia in 2005, have made some Democratic districts more vulnerable. In 2006, Georgia Democrats John Barrow and Jim Marshall faced tough re-election bids.
Scandals The incumbent is involved in a highly publicized political scandal or whose district was previously represented by a scandal-plagued representative from the opposing party. The Jack Abramoff indian casino lobbying scandal affected several members of Congress, many of whom were defeated in 2006. Some key Abramoff donor recipients, such as John Doolittle (R-CA) are still in office. Additionally, Democrats Nick Lampson (D-TX) and Tim Mahoney (D-FL) took the respective districts of Tom DeLay (R-TX) and Mark Foley (R-FL), both of which heavily favor Republicans, in the previous election.

[edit] Alabama

[edit] Alaska

  • Alaska's At-large congressional district— Incumbent Don Young (R), who is often referred to as "Alaska's third Senator" since his district covers the entire state, may retire. Young will be 75 in 2008. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, whose father Nick Begich was succeeded by Young after the elder Begich died in a plane crash in 1972, would be a potential Democratic candidate. 2006 nominee and 2004 Green Party Gubernatoral Candidate Diane Benson is another possible candidate, as well as former State House Minority Leader and 2006 Lieutenant-Governor nominee Ethan Berkowitz

[edit] Arizona

  • Arizona's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Rick Renzi (R) could be vulnerable. He received only 52% of the vote compared to 44% for his Democratic opponent – civil rights attorney Ellen Simon – in 2006. George W. Bush won 54% of the vote in this northern Arizona district in 2004. Renzi has been dogged by ethics problems recently. Simon is considering a rematch, however the DCCC is has entered into talks with attorney Jim Ledbetter, who is believed to be a much stronger candidate, as well as State Representative Ann Kirkpatrick. Another potential candidate is Howard Shanker, an attorney with strong support among the Native American community and who recently won a landmark victory for the area tribes when the 9th Circuit blocked the expansion of Arizona Snowball on sacred Indian grounds in Navajo Nation v. United States Forest Service, No. 06-15371 (9th Cir. March 12, 2007).
  • Arizona's 5th congressional district— Freshman representative Harry Mitchell (D) unseated Republican J.D. Hayworth by 50% to 47% in this Republican-leaning district that gave George W. Bush 54% of the vote in 2004. The strongly republican nature of the distrct make a tough 2008 race certain, though Mitchell has won a lot of tough elections in the past. One possible republican challenger is 2002 Gubernatoral Nominee and former Congressman Matt Salmon, who is currenty the Republican state chairman. Other possible nominees are Tempe Mayor Hugh Hallman and state Representative Michelle Reagan.
  • Arizona's 8th congressional district— Democrat Gabrielle Giffords defeated conservative Republican Randy Graf by a 54% to 42% margin in 2006. If Republicans recruit a moderate candidate similar to the district's previous representative, Jim Kolbe, Giffords could have a challenging re-election bid. Some Republicans are hoping that state Senator Timothy Bee runs in 2008.

[edit] California

  • California's 4th congressional district— Republican John Doolittle has been associated with the corruption scandals of Jack Abramoff and defense contractor Brent Wilkes, which could make re-election a challenge in 2008 for Doolittle, who received only 49% of the vote compared to 46% for his Democratic challenger, Charlie Brown, in 2006. Some Republicans are hoping that Doolittle does not seek reelection in 2008. In February 2007 Brown announced that he would run again in 2008. Speculation abounds that Doolittle will bee indicted, which would greatly damage his re-election.
  • California's 13th congressional district— Often regarded as the most liberal member of Congress, Democratic incumbent Pete Stark may retire. Stark, who represents much of eastern San Fransisco Bay area, will be 77 in 2008. His district is strongly Democratic.
  • California's 24th congressional district— If Elton Gallegly (R) chooses to retire, this district centered around Ventura County could become a notable race even if Republicans are virtually assured a safe seat. Republican State Senator Tom McClintock, who has name statewide recognition from his several statewide campaigns, would be considered the likely frontrunner were there an open seat. However, McClintock has been an intra-party rival to Gallegly, who had hoped to have a political ally nominated to succeed him. This was believed to be the reason that Gallegly scuttled after he initially considered withdrawing in 2006 when he discovered that his name could not be withdrawn from the ballot unless he was deceased.
  • California's 38th congressional district— Incumbent Democrat Grace Napolitano, who will be 72 in 2008, may retire. Napolitano's district is a largely Hispanic one that is surrounded by several white and Asian communities that sometimes vote Republican. The district itself is heavily Democratic however.
  • California's 42nd congressional district- Incumbent Republican Gary Miller has recently suffered bad press, with four ex-aides accusing him of conflict-of-interest and using his position to profit from the sale of personal land holdings.[2] The district is solidly Republican, but if the charges are proven, Miller could have a difficult reelection in 2008 or be forced to retire.
  • California's 52nd congressional district— Incumbent Republican Duncan Hunter has announced he will be retiring from Congress in 2008 due to his presidential bid. His son, Duncan Duane Hunter is currently exploring a run to succeed his father, as is local radio talk show host Mark Larson.

[edit] Colorado

  • Colorado's 2nd congressional district— With the retirement of Republican Senator Wayne Allard, popular incumbent Mark Udall will run for Allard's seat in the Senate, which will leave an open seat in this district. However, Democrats hold a strong edge in this district, as it is centered around heavily Democratic Boulder. Possible Democratic candidates include state Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald, state House Majority Leader Alice Madden, and Colorado Conservation Trust Director Will Shafroth. Among Republicans, former Eagle County Commissioner Tom Stone is a possible candidate. The race could get interesting if Boulder Mayor Mark Ruzzin chooses to run as the Green Party candidate.
  • Colorado's 4th congressional district— Conservative Republican Marilyn Musgrave, best known for her belief that gay marriage is the most important issue facing Americans, won only after winning a plurality (46%) of the vote against Democrat Angie Paccione and a strong Reform Party challenge from Eric Eidsness, who managed to bevy up 11% of the vote. That, along with her 51% showing in 2004 despite George W. Bush winning 58% of the vote in this eastern Colorado district that includes the Fort Collins area, could make her vulnerable in 2008, especially if her 2002 and 2004 challenger, former state Senator Stan Matsunaka, decides to run against her for a third time.
  • Colorado's 5th congressional district— Conservative freshman Republican Doug Lamborn could face a primary challenge from a more moderate Republican with similarities to the district's previous representative, Joel Hefley. Lamborn narrowly won a nasty multi-candidate primary in 2006 and despite worries of vulnerability, still won by a wide 60%-40% margin, becoming the highest vote getter for a GOP Congressional candidate in the state in the 2006 cycle. His district is based in heavily Republican Colorado Springs and is the most Republican district in the state.
  • Colorado's 6th congressional district— This seat could become open in 2008 if incumbent Tom Tancredo runs for president. If Tancredo decides to run for re-election for his House seat instead, he could face a challenge given his controversial views on immigration reform. However, Tancredo's seat is considered to be the most Republican-dominated district of the Denver-area seats. Tancredo was the second highest vote getter for a Republican congressional candidate statewide (59%-40%) in 2006, just behind freshman Doug Lamborn in the 5th district. The district includes Columbine High School, which was devastated in a tragic 1999 school massacre, although Democratic attempts to target him on his outspoken views on gun rights in the 2000 election came up short (where he prevailed 53%-44%).

[edit] Connecticut

  • Connecticut's 4th congressional district— Republican Chris Shays won 51% of the vote in 2006 and 52% in 2004 in a district that went to John Kerry by the same amount. The only Republican House member in all of New England, Shays will likely be a top target of Democrats in 2008. 2006 U.S. Senate candidate Ned Lamont may run, although he lost in this district to incumbent Senator Joe Lieberman, who Shays had endorsed. Other possible Democratic candidates include State Senator Bob Duff and former professional hockey player Mike Richter. Richter recently announced, however, that he is not interested in running in CT-04 at this time. There are still plenty of other strong Democrats interested, including State Senator Andrew MacDonald and former Goldman Sachs investment banker and community activist Jim Himes.

[edit] Delaware

[edit] Florida

  • Florida's 2nd congressional district— If incumbent Democrat Allen Boyd retires or runs for another office, this district in the Florida Panhandle could become competitive. Bush won the district 54-46% in 2004 but split it 50-50 with Al Gore in 2000. Boyd won unopposed in 2006 and will be 63 in 2008.
  • Florida's 5th congressional district— In 2004 and 2006, incumbent Republican Ginny Brown-Waite faced political newcomers Robert Whittel and John Russell respectively and won reelection by somewhat diminishing margins of 32% and 20% respectively. She won her seat in 2002 by slightly more than 4,000 votes over incumbent Karen Thurman, currently the head of the state Democratic Party. If Thurman were to run again for her old seat, the race in this Nature Coast district could become highly competitive.
  • Florida's 10th congressional district— Incumbent Bill Young (R) may retire. There had been speculation in 2006 that he would retire unless either his wife ran or another candidate would file for the Republican nomination. Young ran again based on the latter scenario. Young will be 78 in 2008 and if he does retire, his seat will likely be competitive as George W. Bush only won this district, centered around St. Petersburg and Pinellas County, with 50% to 49% for John Kerry. Also, Al Gore won this district in 2000.
  • Florida's 16th congressional district— This is normally a solidly Republican district, so consensus is that Democrat Tim Mahoney's 50% to 48% win in 2006 can be attributed to the Mark Foley scandal. The Republican nominee's campaign was harmed by the fact that Foley's name remained on the ballot even though he was not a candidate. Thus Mahoney may have a competitive race in 2008. George W. Bush won this district by a ten-point margin in 2004. Former state Representative Joe Negron, the 2006 Republican candidate, will not run. On the Republican side, state Representative Gayle Harrell has announced her candidacy but is likely to face conservative primary opposition. Other possible Republican candidates are Palm Beach Gardens City Councilman Hal Valeche, and attorney Tom Rooney.
  • Florida's 22nd congressional district— First-term incumbent Ron Klein (D) might face a challenge in this Fort Lauderdale area district that barely went to John Kerry in 2004. Possible GOP challengers may include Boca Raton Mayor Steven Abrams, who, according to close friends, has expressed interest in a future congressional run. However, local political observers are saying that the GOP will not make a serious effort to target Klein.

[edit] Georgia

  • Georgia's 10th congressional district— Republican Charlie Norwood died on February 13, 2007 after a 12-year career in Congress. Whoever succeeds Norwood via nonpartisan special election will likely be considered the frontrunner for 2008. The district, located in northeast Georgia, is heavily Republican, but the dynamics of the special election are not yet clear. Republican state Senator Ralph Hudgens announced his candidacy days after Norwood's death and before the funeral, which made a bad impression. Recently, Republican state Senator Jim Whitehead announced his candidacy and has garnered some key endorsements. Hudgens eventually dropped out, and polling shows Whitehead leading the strongest Democrat, Terry Holley, by a double-digit margin.
  • Georgia's 12th congressional district— Democrat John Barrow may face a tough challenge from Republicans in 2008 after an 864-vote win over former Republican Congressman Max Burns in their 2006 rematch. Barrow had defeated then-incumbent Burns in 2004 with 52% of the vote. The present district, which was implemented starting with the 2006 House election, would have given John Kerry 51% of the vote in 2004.

[edit] Hawaii

  • Hawaii's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Neil Abercrombie (D) may retire. Located in a heavily Democratic state, this district is dominated by Honolulu Abercrombie will be 70 in 2008 and if he retires, this race could become competitive; John Kerry won only 52% of the vote here in 2004.

[edit] Idaho

  • Idaho's 1st congressional district— Conservative Republican Bill Sali won this open seat race with 49.9 percent of the vote in 2006, a mediocre showing at best for a Republican in a district that gave President Bush 68 percent of the vote in 2004. Also, as a member of the Idaho Legislature Sali caused considerable controversy by repeatedly citing a link between breast cancer and abortion without being able to provide evidence. Although Sali was elected the Republican freshman leader in the House, his term in Washington thus far has been relatively quiet. Meanwhile, Larry Grant, Sali's 2006 Democratic opponent, has said that he will run again in 2008. However, Grant is also reportedly considering a run against Senator Larry Craig. Also, Former Decomractic Representative Larry LaRocco may enter the race. Both LaRacco and Grant are believed to be strong Demcoratic candidates for this seat. On the Republican side, recently there has been speculation that former Governor and current Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch may enter the Republican primary against Sali in 2008 on the percieved basis that Sali is a lightning rod for controversy and on the percieved basis of Sali's weak electability and weak electoral strength. All this, combined with a more competitive political landscape in the rapidly growing Boise area (where Democrats picked up five seats in the Idaho Legislature in 2006), may make this race worth watching in 2008.

[edit] Illinois

  • Illinois's 8th congressional district— Democrat Melissa Bean may again be a target of Republicans, who unsuccessful tried to unseat her in 2006, when Bean won 51% of the vote after defeating veteran incumbent Phil Crane with 52% in 2004 in a district that George W. Bush won with 55% to 44% for John Kerry. There is some speculation that attorney Kathy Salvi, who ran in 2006 but lost the Republican primary, is a possible candidate.
  • Illinois's 10th congressional district— Mark Kirk (R) survived a surprisingly close race in 2006, winning by 53% to 47% in an upscale suburban Chicago district that voted for John Kerry in 2004. In December 2006, Kirk disclaimed any interest in the 2008 U.S. Senate race against the Democratic incumbent, Dick Durbin. Kirk's 2006 opponent Dan Seals is likely to run again, and another potential challenger is former Clinton presidential adviser Jay Footlik.
  • Illinois's 13th congressional district— Incumbent Judy Biggert (R) may retire. Biggert is known to have moderate positions. Her district covers the outer southern edge of Chicagoland; an area which has changed much demographically in recent years. Biggert will be 71 in 2008. Bush won 55% here to 45% for John Kerry.
  • Illinois's 14th congressional district— Rumors have been swirling that former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert will not run for re-election in 2008. The Mark Foley congressional page scandal has caused some damage to his reputation even though Hastert won 60% of the vote in 2006 and 69% in 2004, when George W. Bush won with 55% in this district to 45% for John Kerry. If Hastert does retire, one possible candidate is conservative state Senator Chris Lauzen, although he would probably receive primary competition from a Hastert ally. A potential Democrat would be State Represenative Linda LaVia.

[edit] Indiana

  • Indiana's 2nd congressional district— In 2006, Democrat Joe Donnelly won by 54% to 46% in this Republican-leaning district that narrowly went to George W. Bush with 55% of the vote to 45% for John Kerry in 2004, largely as a result of displeasure with the GOP both nationally and at the state level. Even though the unpopularity of Governor Mitch Daniels may make it difficult for Republicans to take back this seat in 2008, the GOP will look to challenge Donnelly. One possible Republican candidate is state Senator Thomas Weatherwax.
  • Indiana's 5th congressional district— Twelve-term incumbent Dan Burton (R) may retire. Burton's district stretches from Wabash in northeast Indiana to the Indianapolis suburbs. Burton will be 70 in 2008. Regardless of Burton's decision, former Marion County Coroner John McGoff has announced his candidacy.[4] McGoff has criticized Burton for missing 19 votes in January while playing at a celebrity golf tournament in California.
  • Indiana's 7th congressional district— Incumbent Julia Carson (D) may retire. Carson's district is centered around urban Indianapolis and usually votes Democratic. Carson will be 70 in 2008 and won reelection in 2006 by less than expected. Democrats who might be interested in succeeding her include state Representative Gregory Porter, state Representative Carolene Mays,and Center Township Trustee Carl L. Drummer. On the Republican side, wealthy automobile dealer Eric Dickerson, who ran against Carson in 2006 and made a credible showing, may run again. Kerry won 59% here.
  • Indiana's 8th congressional district— In 2006, freshman Democrat Brad Ellsworth unseated conservative John Hostettler by a 61% to 39% margin, the size of which surprised even his fellow Democrats. He will be a formidable candidate for reelection, but no incumbent can rest easy in this district, known as "The Bloody Eighth" for its history of rejecting incumbents and hotly contested races. Republicans suffered a setback when Gibson County Prosecutor Rob Krieg announced that he wouldnt run. Bush won 61% here to 39% for John Kerry.
  • Indiana's 9th congressional district— Democrat Baron Hill narrowly won his old job back by 50% to 47% here in 2006. The district went to George W. Bush with 59% of the vote. Hill and Mike Sodrel have faced off in three consecutive elections, Hill winning the first and third and Sodrel the second on a recount, so the outcome in 2008 is anything but certain should Sodrel seek another rematch. Even absent another Sordel campaign, Republicans will likely contest this district. Recently there has been speculation that Hill will run for governor in 2008 instead. Bush won 59% here to 41% for John Kerry.

[edit] Iowa

  • Iowa's 2nd congressional district— Democrat Dave Loebsack won 51% of the vote in an upset victory over 30-year incumbent Republican Jim Leach. John Kerry won this district with 55% in 2004. Should Leach seek a rematch, this marginally-Democratic district may see another close race in 2008.
  • Iowa's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Leonard Boswell (D) may retire because of age and medical issues. This district includes the capital city of Des Moines. Boswell will be 74 in 2008 and had a relatively close reelection in 2006. Republican state Senate President Jeff Lamberti ran a strong campaign that year and may run again. Bush very narrowly won this district with 49.7% compared to 49.6% for John Kerry in 2004.

[edit] Kansas

  • Kansas's 2nd congressional district— Democrat Nancy Boyda narrowly upset Republican Jim Ryun in 2006. Her district gave George W. Bush 58% of the vote to 40% for John Kerry in 2004, and she could be vulnerable, as her victory was aided by infighting between the moderate and conservative factions of Kansas Republicans, which hurt turnout numbers for Ryun. Possible candidates include former state House Speaker Doug Mays, who lost the Republican primary for Governor in 2006, and state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins. On January 29, 2007, Ryun announced that he would challenge Boyda for his old seat in 2008. However, in 2006, Ryun was damaged over a Washington, D.C. real estate purchase and Boyda may very well revive the issue.

[edit] Kentucky

  • Kentucky's 3rd congressional district— incumbent Democrat John Yarmuth narrowly unseated Republican Anne Northup in 2006 with 51%. Republicans will try to regain a district they held for 10 years, although it usually votes Democratic. Former Federal prosecutor Erwin Roberts is thinking of running. Kerry won this district with 52% in 2004.
  • Kentucky's 6th congressional district— Republicans may target Democrat Ben Chandler in 2008. In 2004, George W. Bush won 58% of this district to 42% for John Kerry, which includes Lexington and the state capital of Frankfort. In 2006, Chandler won with no Republican opponent. Despite the district's Republican lean, Chandler is very popular there and would be very difficult to unseat.

[edit] Louisiana

  • Louisiana's 2nd congressional district— Democrat Bill Jefferson surprised many when he went on to win re-election in his New Orleans-based congressional seat, defeating another Democrat, state Representative Karen Carter, with 57% in a December 2006 run-off. In spite of that surprising margin, he could face a primary challenge in 2008, or the district could even become open should Jefferson, who has come under fire for allegedly taking thousands of dollars in bribes (including money law enforcement found in Jefferson's freezer), either resign or be indicted and convicted and thus expelled from Congress.
  • Louisiana's 6th congressional district— Republican Congressman Richard Baker is popular in this marginal district dominated by Baton Rouge, but he has been approached about running for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu. Should Baker accept, it would give Democrats a shot at winning this seat. This would be made easier by the large numbers of black voters who have settled in Baton Rouge and the surrounding area after Hurricane Katrina.

[edit] Maine

  • Maine's 1st congressional district— Representative Tom Allen might run for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Susan Collins in 2008. Democrats would be favored to hold this seat but would not assured of victory; John Kerry won 55% here in 2004. Democrats who are eyeing a candidacy include State Senator Ethan Strimling, former Common Cause President Chellie Pingree, who ran against Collins in 2002, and former state Senator Michael Brennen. Republicans have no well-known prospective candidates yet, although that is expected to change.

[edit] Maryland

  • Maryland's 4th congressional district— Coming off a close primary against political upstart Donna Edwards in 2006, Democratic Congressman Al Wynn may again face a competitive primary in 2008, although there will be little competition in the general election as the district is overwhelmingly Democratic. Primary opposition to Wynn would likely again come from a candidate who feels that he does not having a liberal enough voting record for the district. Wynn annoyed liberals by voting for the Iraq War, the 2005 Bankruptcy bill, and the repeal of the estate tax in the 109th Congress.
  • Maryland's 6th congressional district— Incumbent Roscoe Bartlett (R) may retire. Bartlett's district is one of the more Republican seats in heavily Democratic Maryland, and includes several western cities such as Frederick and Hagerstown. Bartlett will be 82 in 2008, and received 58% in 2006, nine points smaller than his 2004 showing of 67%, against a lesser-known opponent.

[edit] Massachusetts

[edit] Michigan

  • Michigan's 7th congressional district— Republican Tim Walberg won this Republican-leaning district (which went to to George W. Bush with 54% to 45% for John Kerry in 2004) with 51% of the vote in 2006 after defeating freshman incumbent Joe Schwarz with financial backing from the conservative Club for Growth. He could face a tough race in 2008, especially if Schwartz challenges him as a Democrat, which may happen. However, popular former Republican Representative Nick Smith, who held this seat prior to Schwarz was more popular than Schwarz ever was and is as conservative as Tim Walberg. Also, Nick Smith might challenge Tim Walberg in the Republican primary for Walberg's congressional seat.
  • Michigan's 9th congressional district— In January 2006, Incumbent Joe Knollenberg (R) announced his intent to seek re-election in 2008. Knollenberg spent $2.7 million to keep his seat in the House.[5] Although his past Democratic challengers have not received support from the national party, Knollenberg's seat has now been identified as a "target" for the Democrats in 2008.[6] The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is targeting Congressional Districts where Republicans garnered less than 55% of the vote.[7] Knollenberg, who will be 75 in 2008, won only 52% of the vote in 2006 in a district that gave George W. Bush only 50% of the vote in 2004.
  • Michigan's 12th congressional district— Incumbent Sander Levin (D), brother of senator Carl Levin, may retire. Rep. Levin will be 77 in 2008. If Rep. Levin does retire, one possible candidate for his seat would be his son, Andy Levin, who very narrowly lost an election to the Michigan State Senate in 2006.
  • Michigan's 15th congressional district— Incumbent John Dingell (D) is the Dean of the House of Representatives, having served 26 terms successively and winning 88% of the vote in 2006. The Chairman of the House Energy & Commerce Committee, Dingell, who will be 82 in 2008, may retire. His grandson, state Senator Christopher Dingell, would be a potential candidate to succeed him.

[edit] Minnesota

  • Minnesota's 1st congressional district— George W. Bush won 51% of the vote in this southern Minnesota district to 48% for John Kerry, which DFLer Tim Walz won in 2006. Walz could face a tough race, as he unseated 12-year incumbent Republican Gil Gutknecht by 53% to 47%, and possibly a rematch with Gutknetcht. Another potential Republican candidate is Lieutenant Governor Carol Molnau. Former state Senate Minority Leader Dick Day formed an exploratory committee in February 2007 and state Representative Randy Demmer has also announced.
  • Minnesota's 5th congressional district— Incumbent Keith Ellison (DFL) may face a primary challenge perhaps because the district's previous representative, Martin Sabo, refused to endorse him, emblematic of contention among local DFLers over Ellison's nomination. Also, he won only 55% in his first race despite John Kerry winning 71% of the vote in the district, and because of this fact, Ellison might also face a primary challenge on the basis of Ellsion's weak electability and on the basis of Ellison's weak electoral strength. His district is based in Minneapolis.
  • Minnesota's 6th congressional district- Republican incumbent Michelle Bachman was one of the GOP's success stories in 2006, defeating a weak Democrat, Patty Wetterling, by a larger-than-extected margin. But she recently got bad press when she claimed that Iran had a secret plan to partition Iraq , but was unable to produce evidence. This has won her the attention of the Democrats, who have now targeted her for defeat. The DCCC has approached state Senator Tarryl Clark and Stearns County Attorney Janelle Kendall (DFL-MN) into running. Former Blaine Mayor Elwyn Tinkleburg, who ran in 2006 but lost the nomination, is thinking of running again and claims his moderate views would make him a strong candidate.

[edit] Missouri

  • Missouri's 4th congressional district— Incumbent Ike Skelton, a conservative Democrat, may retire. Skelton will be 77 in 2008. Republicans would have a shot at winning this rural, conservative district in west-central Missouri if Skelton were to retire. Bush won 63% here.

[edit] Montana

  • Montana's At-large congressional district- Four-term Republican incumbent Denny Rehberg is generally popular in Montana and would be a solid favorite for reelection if he wants it. But there is speculation that he may run for the U.S. Senate against Max Baucus, whom he nearly unseated in 1996 in spite of being outspent by a 3-to-1 margin. If he does, there will be a highly competitive race to succeed him. Democrats thinking of running include Jim Foley, Executive Assistant Vice President for the University of Montana, state Senator Jesse Laslovich, and state Representative Dan Villa.

[edit] Nebraska

  • Nebraska's 2nd congressional district- When Republican incumbent Lee Terry won his first term in 1998, he had promised to limit himself to three terms. Almost immediately after winning, he announced he was going back on his word. He was thought to have overcome that issue after winning comfortably in 2004 against a credible opponent. But in 2006, he won by 55% to 45%, by far the weakest showing of his career, against Jim Esch, a political unknown who ran an under-the-radar grassroots campaign. Esch said shortly after losing the race that he would likely run again in 2008. Terry may run for the U.S. Senate in 2008 if incumbent Senator Chuck Hagel retires.

[edit] Nevada

[edit] New Hampshire

  • New Hampshire's 1st congressional district— Democrat Carol Shea-Porter squeaked into Congress with 51% of the vote to 49% for incumbent Republican Jeb Bradley – who in January 2007 announced that he would seek a rematch with Shea-Porter in 2008 – in one of the greatest upsets of the 2006 election cycle. George W. Bush narrowly won her district in 2004. Shea-Porter has continued her very vocal anti-war stance in office and may be fueling Republican interest in regaining the seat.
  • New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district— Democrat Paul Hodes upended Republican incumbent Charlie Bass in 2006, taking a 53% to 45% victory in a district John Kerry narrowly won. Given that New Hampshire has traditionally leaned Republican – though it has been trending more Democratic recently – the GOP might look to challenge Hodes. One possible candidate would be venture capitalist Stephen Gray.

[edit] New Jersey

  • New Jersey's 5th congressional district- Republican Scott Garrett won by less than expected (55%-44%) in this Republican-leaning district in Northwestern New Jersey that gave George W. Bush 57% of the vote in 2004. The Democrats are expected to contest this seat in 2008. 2006 candidate Paul Arohnson is looking at a challenge, and the DCCC is looking to recruit Paramus Mayor James Tedesco to run.
  • New Jersey's 10th congressional district— Democrat Don Payne, who is often described as the most consistently liberal member of New Jersey's congressional delegation, may retire. Payne's district is the most Democratic in the state, centered around Newark. It gave John Kerry 82% of the vote in 2004. Payne will be 74 in 2008.

[edit] New Mexico

  • New Mexico's 1st congressional district— The 2006 race between incumbent Republican Heather Wilson and Democratic state Attorney General Patricia Madrid was a cliffhanger, with Wilson being reelected by 861 votes. John Kerry narrowly won this Albuquerque-based district in 2004. Madrid would be considered a potential 2008 challenger, as would Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, who might instead run for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Pete Domenici. Other Democrats thinking of running include Bernalillo County District Attorney Kari Brandenburg, state Auditor Hector Balderas, and state Representative Al Park. The already vulnerable Wilson has been thrown on the defensive by charges that she may have improperly sought to interfere with an investigation by the U.S. Attorney's office in New Mexico.

[edit] New York

  • New York's 1st congressional district- Timothy Bishop (D) was first elected in 2002. A former academic, Bishop has compiled a solid liberal voting record. This East End district retains a strong independent streak, and Bishop, who enjoys strong backing from Newsday (whose editorial board takes a staunch liberal stance), may be vulnerable to a challenge from a moderate Republican.
  • New York's 13th congressional district— Staten Island Republican Vito Fossella won 57% of the vote here in 2006 in what is arguably the most Republican area of heavily Democratic New York City. There should be no surprise if Democrats try to make an attempt to sweep NYC, including Staten Island, in 2008. The DCCC is looking at candidates, including State Senator Diane Savino and State Assemblyman Mike Cusick.
  • New York's 20th congressional district— Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand defeated Republican incumbent John Sweeney in 2006 by 53% to 47%, the same margin with which George W. Bush won this district, which includes the north Hudson Valley and Saratoga Springs, in 2004. Republicans have identified Gillibrand as a top target for 2008, as they believe that Sweeney's personal issues caused his defeat, not a change in voter behavior in this traditional GOP stronghold. Also, Gillibrand's victory was the 15th Democratic pickup that resulted in the Democrats' takeover of the House, as her party needed 15 seats to take over. Possible candidates to challenge her include former state Assemblyman and 2006 gubernatorial candidate John Faso, who was also nearly elected state Controller in 2002, New York Secretary of State Alexander Treadwell, Saratoga County District Attorney Jim Murphy, state Senator Elizabeth Little, former Mayoral aide Richard Wagner, and state Assemblyman Roy McDonald.
  • New York's 29th congressional district— Republican Randy Kuhl had a close race in 2006, surviving a challenge from Democrat Eric Massa by a 51% to 49% margin. His Elmira and suburban Rochester district gave Bush 56% in 2004. Massa has said he will run again in 2008. Kuhl is considered a weak incumbent who has had multiple difficult reelections in the past, and should face a strong challenge once again in 2008, whether from Massa or someone new.

[edit] North Carolina

  • North Carolina's 8th congressional district— Republican Robin Hayes barely hung on in his 2006 re-election bid against Democrat Larry Kissell by a 329-vote margin. This seat likely will be competitive again in 2008 because of Hayes' vote for CAFTA, which he first opposed but voted for because of pressure from House Republican leadership. Kissell has already declared his candidacy for the 2008 race, but he might face a primary challenge from several better-known, better-funded, and more experienced Democrats.
  • North Carolina's 11th congressional district— Conservative Democrat Heath Shuler won 54% to 46% against scandal-plagued incumbent Charles Taylor in 2006, in a district that gave 57% of its vote to George W. Bush and 43% of its vote to John Kerry in 2004. The district includes the western areas of North Carolina, including Asheville. This race could be competitive, but Shuler's social conservativsm and economic populism should help his chances at reelection, even in a GOP-leaning district. Taylor is considering a rematch, although many local Republicans hope he doesn't run again. Other possible Republican candidates include state Senator Tom Apocada, Transylvania County District Attorney Jeff Hunt, Buncombe County Commissioner Nathan Ramsey, and attorney John Armor.

[edit] North Dakota

[edit] Ohio

  • Ohio's 1st congressional district— Republican Steve Chabot won by 52% to 48% in 2006, compared to 60% in 2004. His district barely went to George W. Bush with 50% in 2004 and includes the western portion of the Cincinnati area. One possible Democratic opponent is state Representative Steve Driehaus.
  • Ohio's 2nd congressional district— Republican Jean Schmidt barely held on by a 51% to 49% margin against Democratic physician Victoria Wulsin. Her district is a heavily Republican one, covering the eastern portions of Greater Cincinnati. Bush won 64% here in 2004. Wulsin has declared her intention to run again. Bush won 64% here.
  • Ohio's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Mike Turner (R), a former mayor of Dayton, won his last race with 58% of the vote. However, some Democrats think that he has never faced strong competition. Turner's seat was previously held by Democrat Tony P. Hall for 24 years. If Hall were to run again for his old seat, this would be a highly competitive race. This Dayton-based district narrowly went for Bush with 54% to 46% for John Kerry in 2004.
  • Ohio's 12th congressional district— Republican Pat Tiberi faced an expensive race in 2006 against one of this district’s former congressmen, Bob Shamansky (D), who briefly served in the early 1980s, but survived with 58%. George W. Bush barely won this district with 51% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004.
  • Ohio's 14th congressional district— Republican Steve LaTourette, whose district is centered around suburban Cleveland, won 58% of the vote in 2006 against a weak opponent. He represents a swing district where no party has a clear advantage over the other. Bush won here with 52% to 47% for John Kerry.
  • Ohio's 16th congressional district— Longtine incumbent Ralph Regula (R) may retire. Regula, whose district includes the Canton area, garnered only 58% in the Republican primary against lesser-known Ashland County Commissioner Matt Miller in 2006. Regula will be 84 in 2008. If he does retire, his son, former Stark County Commissioner Richard Regula would be a potential Republican candidate to succeed him, as would Miller. This district narrowly went for Bush with 53% to 46% for John Kerry in 2004.
  • Ohio's 18th congressional district— Democrat Zack Space may be vulnerable in 2008 as his district, located in eastern Ohio, went to George W. Bush with 57% to 43% for John Kerry in 2004, although Space won his first term in 2006 with 62% of the vote. Republicans were forced to select a new candidate, state Senator Joy Padgett, after Rep. Bob Ney dropped out of the race following his conviction in the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal. It turned out that Padgett had financial controversies of her own, which Ohio voters were in no mood to tolerate. One possible Republican candidate in 2008 is state Senator Jay Hottinger.

[edit] Oregon

  • Oregon's 5th congressional district— Democrat Darlene Hooley may face a competitive race this Willamette Valley district George W. Bush barely won with 50% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004, while Hooley received 53% of the vote. She was reelected in 2006 with 54% to her closest opponent's 43%. There has been speculation in the past that Hooley would retire.

[edit] Pennsylvania

  • Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Democrat Bob Brady is running for mayor of Philadelphia in 2007. This seat, centered in heavily Democratic Philadelphia, is all but assured of staying in Democratic hands, whether or not Brady is the Democratic candidate in 2008. Possible candidates should Brady be elected mayor – which would result in a special election for his House seat – include current Philadelphia Mayor John F. Street and former U.S. Representative Robert A. Borski, Jr., who previously represented the former adjacent 3rd District until redistricting in 2002 eliminated his district. Kerry won 85% here.
  • Pennsylvania's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Democrat Chaka Fattah announced that he is running for mayor of Philadelphia in 2007. This seat, centered in heavily Democratic Philadelphia, is all but assured of staying in Democratic hands, whether or not Fattah is the Democratic nominee in 2008. Possible candidates should Fattah be elected mayor – which would result in a special election for his House seat – include current Philadelphia Mayor John F. Street and former U.S. Representative Robert A. Borski, Jr., who previously represented the former adjacent 3rd District until redistricting in 2002 eliminated his district. Kerry won 88% here.
  • Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district— Republican Phil English could have a challenge in 2008, as he represents an Erie-based district that gave George W. Bush 53% of the vote and 47% of its vote to John Kerry in 2004 and English 54% in 2006 against a political newcomer with no political experience.
  • Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district— Democrat Jason Altmire defeated Republican incumbent Melissa Hart in a 52% to 48% upset, as Hart had won 63% of the vote in 2004, when George W. Bush carried this suburban Pittsburgh district with 53% to 45% for John Kerry. In 2006, Pennsylvania was perhaps the most disastrous state for incumbent GOP House members, who lost four seats here. One possible candidate to challenge him is former Allegheny County Commissioner Ron Francis.
  • Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district— Republican Jim Gerlach survived challenges from wealthy attorney Lois Murphy in 2004 and 2006 with 51% each year and could face another challenge for his suburban Philadelphia district in 2008, which went to John Kerry with 51% in 2004. One possible candidate would be Dan Wofford, his near-successful 2002 opponent, who is thought to be a more credible and stronger opponent than Murphy.
  • Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district— First-term Democrat Joe Sestak will likely face a challenge from the GOP for this Delaware County-based district outside of Philadelphia that went to John Kerry with 53% in 2004 and was previously represented by Republican Curt Weldon, who has become the focus of a recent FBI lobbying investigation. Sestak defeated Weldon 56% to 44%. Some are talking of U.S. Attorney Patrick Meehan challenging him in 2008. Also mentioned as a possible challenger is Delaware County Councilman Andy Reilly.
  • Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district— Chris Carney (D) may face a difficult reelection bid in this heavily Republican district he won after widely-publicized allegations of incumbent Republican Don Sherwood’s extramarital affair with and alleged abuse of Cynthia Ore, who later settled for an undisclosed amount. Carney defeated Sherwood 53% to 47%. Possible Republican opponents include state Senator Lisa Baker, state Representative Karen Boback, state Representative Brett Feese, Kingston Mayor Jim Haggerty, and former U.S. Justice Department official Joe Peters, who ran for state Auditor in 2006. Bush won here 60% to 40% for John Kerry.
  • Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district— Incumbent John Murtha (D) might retire, but such a move is less likely now given that he ran for Majority Leader after Democrats gained control of the House in 2006. His outspoken opposition to the Iraq War could still make him a Republican target if he does not retire, even though he defeated a credible opponent with 61% of the vote in 2006. Murtha will be 76 in 2008. John Kerry won 51% here.
  • Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district— Republican Charles Dent could face a tough race in 2008. He won 53% of the vote against a political newcomer with no political experience in a district that went to John Kerry with 50% in 2004. His district covers the Lehigh Valley region and is politically marginal. Possible Democratic opponents include Lehigh County Executive Don Cunningham, state Senator Lisa Boscola, and state Democratic Party Chairman T.J. Rooney.
  • Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district— Republican Tim Murphy was reelected in 2006 with 58% of the vote against a little-known Democrat in this suburban Pittsburgh district that George W. Bush barely won here with 54% to 46% for John Kerry in 2004, an indication that Murphy could be vulnerable against a stronger opponent. Democrats are trying to entice Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato to run, although he has yet to show any interest.

[edit] South Carolina

[edit] Texas

Main article: Texas United States House elections, 2008
  • Texas's 4th congressional district— 13-term incumbent and former Democrat Ralph Hall (R), the oldest current member of the House of Representatives, may retire. Hall's district takes in northeast Texas, including cities such as Sherman and Texarkana as well as Dallas suburbs such as Rockwall and McKinney. Hall will be 85 in 2008. If Hall does retire, there is speculation that his son, Rockwall County District Judge Brett Hall, will run to succeed him.
  • Texas's 14th congressional district— Incumbent Republican Ron Paul, known for his strongly libertarian – fiscally conservative, socially liberal – positions and his slogan, "The Taxpayers' Best Friend," may retire or run for president. Paul will be 73 in 2008. His district covers much of the central portion of the Texas Gulf Coast, including the communities of Galveston, Bay City, and Victoria. As a whole, it votes Republican, although Democrats sometimes win elections there.
  • Texas's 17th congressional district— Republicans will look to unseat Chet Edwards (D) in this heavily Republican district that covers Waco and the Bryan-College Station area. His district gave George W. Bush 70% of the vote in 2004 and includes Crawford, the home of Bush’s ranch. Edwards was the sole survivor among the Texas Democrats targeted by the mid-decade redistricting effective in 2004, reelected that year with just 51%, but received only token opposition in 2006. He has been mentioned as a possible candidate against Republican U.S. Senator John Cornyn in 2008.
  • Texas's 22nd congressional district— This seat was vacated by former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, who resigned amid reports over his campaign finance activities. Democrat Nick Lampson won the general election, facing only a Libertarian and write-in opposition from Republicans. Republican Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, a dermatologist and former Houston City Councilwoman, won the special election held on the same day and in which Lampson did not run, and she served as a member of congress for almost two months before Lampson was sworn in. Lampson is expected to face a difficult race in 2008. He represents a heavily Republican constituency that voted for George W. Bush over John Kerry by a 2-1 margin, and is dominated by the heavily Republican southern suburbs of Houston, including Sugar Land, portions of Pasadena and Pearland, and Houston's Clear Lake master-planned development. This district also includes the NASA Johnson Space Center and Ellington Field. Sekula-Gibbs may run against Lampson in the 2008 election; however she caused a stir with voters after leveling charges of unprofessional behavior against former DeLay aides and called for an ethics investigation. Those aides later claimed Sekula-Gibbs herself was unprofessional. Popular three-term Sugar Land mayor David Wallace, who was snubbed by GOP precinct chairs in favor of Sekula-Gibbs – to the displeasure of Republican officials in Fort Bend County – in selecting the 2006 replacement Republican nominee, is also a potential candidate, as is Harris County Tax Assessor Paul Bettencourt.
  • Texas's 23rd congressional district— Former Democratic Representative Ciro Rodriguez won a 54% to 46% victory in a runoff against Republican incumbent Henry Bonilla on December 12, 2006. Rodriguez was aided by low turnout, especially in the conservative areas of the district. His seat is a natural target for Republicans in 2008. The district, which is a majority Hispanic one to the south and west of downtown San Antonio, stretching across West Texas into Del Rio and other towns along the Mexican border and Big Bend National Park, reaching all the way to just east of El Paso, is politically marginal. With Bonilla accepting a job in the Bush administration, there will be no rematch. It's possible that Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson or wealthy attorney Francisco Canseco could be the Republican nominee.
  • Texas's 32nd congressional district— Republican Pete Sessions is known to have ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff, which his eventual Democratic opponent is likely to make an issue in his 2008 race. While Sessions improved his margin from his contentious, extremely costly 2004 campaign against a fellow incumbent, Democrat Martin Frost – who was displaced from his previous district in the controversial 2003 redistricting engineered by Tom DeLay – it was only by two percentage points (from 54% in 2004 to 56% in 2006). By contrast, in 2004 George W. Bush won 59% of the vote in this district, which includes several affluent areas of north Dallas, including Highland Park, and significant chunks of the suburbs of Irving and Richardson. If Frost were to run again, this race would be competitive, particularly if his ethics problems became more serious.

[edit] Utah

  • Utah's 2nd congressional district— Democrat Jim Matheson is a perennial target of the GOP every election cycle, as his district was won by George W. Bush with 66% of the vote in 2004. Matheson received 59% in 2006 and 55% in 2004. The district includes Salt Lake City. If Utah receives a fourth seat in the 110th Congress, Matheson will likely be placed in a much more Democratic district centered around Democratic Salt Lake City, but legislation toward this end failed to reach the floor in the 109th Congress.
  • Utah's 3rd congressional district— Republican Chris Cannon won 55% of the vote in the Republican primary in 2006 against businessman John Jacob, who got 45% of the vote in the Republican primary, due to Cannon's stance on illegal immigration. He may very well face another serious primary challenge in 2008. Also, he may face a difficult reelection bid in 2008 if former Congressman Bill Orton, who held this seat for 3 terms prior to being very narrowly defeated by Cannon in 1996, decides to run again for his old seat.

[edit] Virginia

  • Virginia's 9th congressional district— George W. Bush won 58% of this district to 40% for John Kerry in 2004, which is held by Democrat Rick Boucher. If Boucher was to retire, this district will likely experience a competitive race. Boucher will be 62 in 2008.
  • Virginia's 10th congressional district— George W. Bush won 55% of this district in 2004, which is held by Republican Frank Wolf, who faced a challenge from Democrat Judy Feder in 2006. Democrats have been making gains in Northern Virginia recently, which could make re-election tough for Wolf in 2008. Wolf's district covers Loudoun and part of Fairfax counties.
  • Virginia's 11th congressional district— If Senator John Warner decides to retire in 2008, incumbent Tom Davis (R) has expressed interest in running for Senate. If Davis' seat is open, this increasingly-Democratic district of several Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, DC could become more competitive. George W. Bush barely won this district, which includes part of Fairfax and Prince William counties, in 2004. One possible Democratic candidate is Gerry Connolly, the chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, which Davis was part of before becoming a Congressman. Davis may opt not to run for Senator if Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling (R) decides to run. But there is also speculation that Davis won't be a candidate for reelection if Warner decides to seek reelection.

[edit] Washington

  • Washington's 8th congressional district— Dave Reichert (R) won a close 51% to 49% re-election bid against Democratic former Microsoft product manager Darcy Burner in 2006. Given the closeness of the race, Darcy Burner has declared her intention to challenge Reichert in 2008. Al Gore and John Kerry won this suburban Seattle district in 2000 and 2004. A potentially stronger candidate is State Representative Ross Hunter, who has expressed some interest in the race. Local Democrats are determined to recruit Hunter, and the DCCC may assist them.

[edit] West Virginia

  • West Virginia's 1st congressional district— Controversy-plagued incumbent Alan Mollohan (D) represents a conservative-leaning district and received four fewer percentage points in 2006 than in 2004, which is considered unusual among Democrats in the 2006 congressional elections as Democrats chiefly made gains against Republican opponents or ran unopposed that year. The district covers the northern parts of West Virginia.

[edit] Wisconsin

  • Wisconsin's 5th congressional district— There has been speculation for the past few election cycles that Congressman Jim Sensenbrenner was nearing retirement after being in office since 1978. As a senior Republican, Sensenbrenner has held key committee chairmanships. While he told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that "this body is not dead yet",[8] local politicians have again been circulating rumors that Sensenbrenner will retire now that the Republicans are in the minority. Should Sensenbrenner decide not to run in 2008, Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker, former Lt. Gov. Margaret Farrow, and State Sen. Ted Kanavas are potential Republican candidates.
  • Wisconsin's 8th congressional district— Democrat Steve Kagen won by a 51% to 49% margin his first term in this Republican-leaning district that went to George W. Bush in 2004. Kagen will likely face a challenge from Republicans, who had held this seat since 1999. He recently garnered bad press when he bragged about speaking rudely to the President and First Lady at a White House function and then retracted this claim. He was the subject of controversy when the FDA investigated his clinic for selling allergy vaccines without a valid license, although his clinic stopped the practice. Possible Republican candidates include Kagen's predecessor, Mark Green, who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2006; John Gard, his 2006 opponent; state Assemblyman Steve Wieckert; one of two former Wisconsin state treasurers, Jack Voight of Appleton or Cathy Zeuske of Peshtigo (who is Gard's wife); and Terri McCormick, a former assemblywoman who was defeated by Gard in the 2006 Republican primary.

[edit] Wyoming

  • Wyoming's At-large congressional district— Six-term Republican Barbara Cubin edged her Democratic opponent, Teton County School Board Chairman Gary Trauner, by a margin of 1,012 votes in 2006. She sought reelection in a district – coterminous with the state of Wyoming – that gave George W. Bush an overwhelming margin of 69% in 2004 but whose governor, Democrat Dave Freudenthal, was reelected with 70% of the vote in 2006. Cubin has been known as a lightning rod for controversy over a number of incidents that ranged from receiving money from ARMPAC, to distributing penis-shaped cookies to male colleagues while in the Wyoming legislature, to even an incident after a televised debate in which she remarked that if the Libertarian candidate, Thomas Rankin, who has multiple sclerosis and must use a wheelchair, "weren’t sitting in that chair," she would have slapped him in the face. Cubin could face a strong primary challenge in 2008 as a result of her relative electoral weakness. In the general election, she could also face a strong challenge. Gary Trauner has said that he may run again in 2008. It is also possible that she won't seek reelection.

[edit] See also

[edit] References

  1. ^ Elliott, Scott (November 8, 2006). The future of the Congress. ElectionProjection.com. Retrieved on 2007-02-15.
  2. ^ Heisel, William. "Ex-aides allege abuse of power", Los Angeles Times, December 12, 2006. Retrieved on 2007-02-15.
  3. ^ Williams, Ron. "Democrats are targeting Castle's seat", The News Journal, 2007-02-18. Retrieved on 2007-02-19.
  4. ^ Associated Press. "Ex-Coroner To Challenge Burton In GOP Primary", The Indy Channel.com (WRTV), 2007-02-20. Retrieved on 2007-02-22.
  5. ^ "Knollenberg shifts role after nearly losing seat", Detroit Free Press, December 25, 2006.
  6. ^ Rehman, Marc. "Michigan GOP Rep. Knollenberg Draws Democrats’ Scrutiny for 2008", The New York Times, January 30, 2007. Retrieved on 2007-03-25.
  7. ^ Price, Deb. "Dems slap bulls-eye on 2 GOP U.S. Reps", The Detroit News, January 31, 2007. Retrieved on 2007-03-25.
  8. ^ Schultze, Steve. "Walker responds to congressional buzz" (Reprint), Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, FindArticles, April 7, 2006. Retrieved on 2007-02-15.


United States House of Representatives Elections
1789 • 1790 • 1792 • 1794 • 1796 • 1798 • 1800 • 1802 • 1804 • 1806 • 1808 • 1810 • 1812 • 1814 • 1816 • 1818 • 1820 • 1822 • 1824 • 1826 • 1828 • 1830 • 1832 • 1834 • 1836 • 1838 • 1840 • 1842 • 1844 • 1846 • 1848 • 1850 • 1852 • 1854 • 1856 • 1858 • 1860 • 1862 • 1864 • 1866 • 1868 • 1870 • 1872 • 1874 • 1876 • 1878 • 1880 • 1882 • 1884 • 1886 • 1888 • 1890 • 1892 • 1894 • 1896 • 1898 • 1900 • 1902 • 1904 • 1906 • 1908 • 1910 • 1912 • 1914 • 1916 • 1918 • 1920 • 1922 • 1924 • 1926 • 1928 • 1930 • 1932 • 1934 • 1936 • 1938 • 1940 • 1942 • 1944 • 1946 • 1948 • 1950 • 1952 • 1954 • 1956 • 1958 • 1960 • 1962 • 1964 • 1966 • 1968 • 1970 • 1972 • 1974 • 1976 • 1978 • 1980 • 1982 • 1984 • 1986 • 1988 • 1990 • 1992 • 1994 • 1996 • 1998 • 2000 • 2002 • 2004 • 2006 • 2008 • Special
See also: Senate • President • Governors
Retrieved from "http://en.wikipedia.org../../../u/n/i/United_States_House_elections%2C_2008_613d.html"