The Upside of Down

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The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization is a non-fiction book published in 2006 by Thomas Homer-Dixon, professor at the University of Toronto and director of the Trudeau Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies. The book sets out a theory of the growth, crisis, and renewal of societies. The world's converging energy, environmental, and political stresses could cause a breakdown of national and global order. Yet there are things we can do now to keep such a breakdown from being catastrophic. And some kinds of breakdown could even open up extraordinary opportunities for creative, bold reform of our societies, if we are prepared to exploit these opportunities when they arise.^[1]

ISBN 0-676-97722-7

CONTENTS

Prologue: Firestorm

San Francisco, Thursday, April 19, 1906
Rome, Tuesday, May 13, 2003
The White Wall

One: Tectonic Stresses

Multipliers • Synchronous Failure • Beyond Management • From Crash to Creativity • Thresholds • The Prospective Mind

Two: A Keystone in Time

The Thermodynamics of Empire • A Stone's Journey • Colosseum Calories • Energy Return on Investment • The Exigencies of Energy

Three: We Are like Running Water

Demographic Momentum • No Land is an Island • Growth's Consequences • Megacities

Four: So Long, Cheap Slaves

From Geopolitics to Geoscarcity • Oil's Peak • Where Are the Giants? • "The World Economy Has No Plan B"

Five: Earthquake

Negative Synergy • Overload • Connectivity and Speed • A Clausewitz of Complexity • Boundary Jumping

Six: Flesh of the Land

Stages of Denial • Beyond the Horizon • Squeezed in a Vise • The Anthropocene • Hollow Societies

Seven: Closing the Windows

Kilimanjaro's Retreat • Consensus • Confidence Game • Back Casting • Momentum and Feedback • Walking Toward a Cliff • Frayed Networks

Eight: No Equilibrium

Heading for the Exits • Income Gap • The Dirty Little Secret of Development Economics • Curious Fixation • Cultivating Discontent • The Growth Imperative • Clouded Hope

Nine: Cycles within Cycles

Licensing Denial • Why Don't We Face Reality? • Diminishing Returns • Panarchy • Overextending the Growth Phase

Ten: Disintegration

Checkerboard Landscape • Energy Subsidy • Ruthless Extraction • Holland Times Ten • Motivation, Opportunity, and Framing • Power Shift • A Shattered Sphere

Eleven: Catagenesis