Texas United States House elections, 2008

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The 2008 elections for the Texas delegation of the United States House of Representatives will be held on November 4, 2008. All 32 congressional seats that make up the state's delegation will be contested. Since Representatives are elected for two-year terms, those elected will serve in the 111th United States Congress from January 4, 2009 until January 3, 2011.

The 2008 Presidential election, 2008 Senate election (for John Cornyn's seat), and 2008 Texas Legislature elections will occur on the same date, as well as many local elections and ballot initiatives.

Contents

[edit] Current Delegation Facts

The current delegation is comprised of 19 Republicans and 13 Democrats.

  • Women: The delegation is comprised of three women, two Democrats and one Republican.
  • Ethnic minorities: Six Hispanics and three African-Americans, all Democrats are part of the delegation.
  • Regional breakdown:
  • Age: The average age of the Texas delegation is 61, with the oldest being Republican Ralph Hall (age 85 in 2008) and the youngest being Michael McCaul (age 46), a Republican. In 2008, five (including Hall) will be over the age of 70, 13 representatives will be in their 60s, and the remainder (with the exception of McCaul) will be in their 50s.
  • Seniority: 17 representatives will have served at least six terms, and five will have served at least ten terms, the most being Ralph Hall (14 terms). Republican Ron Paul and Democrats Nick Lampson and Ciro Rodriguez have served nonconsecutive tenures. One representatives, Silvestre Reyes, is a committee chair (Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence).

[edit] Congressional Districts

[edit] District 1

Sophomore Republican Louie Gohmert of Tyler was elected in 2004 following a controversial redistricting in 2003 by then-House Majority Leader Tom DeLay that moved the district of incumbent Democrat Max Sandlin into a strongly Republican constituency. In fact, Sandlin was defeated by a 24-point margin in 2004, and Gohmert won in 2006 with 68% of the vote. The district is a purely East Texas one stretching from the Tyler and Longview-Marshall areas in the north to the Lufkin-Nacogdoches area due south.

[edit] District 2

Republican Ted Poe of Humble was one of four Republicans who defeated a Democratic challenger (Nick Lampson, now representing the District 22) in the 2004 elections. Poe won 56% of the vote in 2004 and 66% in 2006, making him one of only a handful of Republicans who gained from the previous election (In 2006, Democrats, who won control of the House from Republicans, generally improved on their 2004 margins). The district stretches from the northern Harris County and Houston suburbs of Spring and Kingwood to southern Liberty County and much of the Golden Triangle region.

[edit] District 3

Longtime Republican Sam Johnson of Plano will be 78 in 2008 and could possibly retire. Johnson represents several northern and northeastern suburbs of Dallas, including southwestern Collin County (including Plano and McKinney) and northeastern Dallas County including large portions of Garland and Richardson. The district is heavily white, upper-middle class, and Republican, with incomes averaging around the $75,000 range. If Johnson does retire, Republican State Senator Florence Shapiro, a former mayor of Plano would be considered a strong candidate if she runs, as would Republican State Representative Brian McCall, who at one point challenged for Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives in 2006. This seat is expected to remain Republican even if Johnson retires.

[edit] District 4

Ralph Hall of Rockwall, the oldest living member of the House of Representatives (will be 85 in 2008), has represented this Northeast Texas district which encompasses the Ark-La-Tex, the Rockwall County suburbs of Dallas, and the Sherman-Denison area since 1980. First elected as an “old-time” conservative Democrat before becoming a Republican in 2004, Hall could possibly retire. His son, State District Judge Brett Hall, is a potential Republican candidate should his father retire.

[edit] District 5

Jeb Hensarling, a Republican from Dallas, was first elected in 2002 to a heavily Republican district comprising of east Dallas and its neighboring suburbs, and stretching to the south and east to a number of small East Texas counties. Hensarling is a potential challenger for the U.S. Senate in 2012 should the incumbent Republican, Kay Bailey Hutchison, retire. In 2008, Hensarling is expected to win another term in this district despite recent Democratic gains in Dallas County.

[edit] District 6

Twelve-term Republican Joe Barton of Ennis was the chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee until Democrats took over the House in 2006. This could possibly signal a retirement for Barton, even though the possibility of Republicans taking back the House in 2008 could motivate Barton to run for a thirteenth term. The district stretches from Arlington southward to several east central Texas counties all the way to Trinity County, which is west of Lufkin and south of Houston, and is heavily Republican.

[edit] District 7

Conservative Houston Republican John Culberson won a surprisingly modest 59% of the vote in what is otherwise a normally strong Republican district. He is still heavily favored to win in 2008, given the 2006 anti-Republican trend that resulted in Culberson’s surprisingly modest victory and the normally Republican voting trend of this somewhat urban district, which is among the most affluent in the nation.

The district, which was once represented by former President George Bush, includes much of heavily Republican west Houston, including the River Oaks, Galleria/Post Oak and Greenway Plaza areas, the Memorial/Spring Branch area, Bellaire, West University Place, Jersey Village, and many unincorporated areas of northwest Harris County including a large chunk of the Cypress-Fairbanks area. No Democrat has won this district since 1966, though freshman Democratic State Representative Ellen Cohen, who represents River Oaks and Bellaire, among other areas, would be considered a viable candidate.

[edit] District 8

Republican Kevin Brady of The Woodlands represents a strongly GOP district centered around the northern suburbs and exurbs of Houston and Beaumont as well as the Huntsville and Lake Livingston areas, winning two-thirds of the vote in 2004 and 2006. The district is expected to remain in Republican hands; no Democrat has won this district since Jimmy Carter, the last Democrat to carry Texas in the presidential electoral college (in 1976), was President.

[edit] District 9

Sophomore Democrat Al Green is not expected to face a challenge in 2008 for his heavily Democratic district, which is situated in southwest Houston and includes Houston’s Southside, as well as the Mission Bend and Alief areas (which have large Asian-American populations) and several heavily black and Hispanic northeastern neighborhoods of Missouri City. He was elected by a 3 to 1 margin in 2004 after defeating displaced incumbent Congressman and fellow Democrat Chris Bell in the primary (Bell was moved out of his previous district in the controversial 2003 redistricting engineered by then-House Majority Leader Tom DeLay), and won a second term unopposed in 2006.

[edit] District 10

Republican Michael McCaul of Austin represents a Republican-leaning district that stretches from north Austin into Brenham traveling all the way to several far western and northwestern suburbs of Houston. McCaul won only 55% of the vote against a token Democratic challenger, Ted Ankrum, and 2004 Libertarian presidential candidate Michael Badnarik. McCaul is favored to win re-election to a third term in 2008 for this normally GOP district.

[edit] District 11

Midland Republican Mike Conaway represents George W. Bush’s strongest district in the 2004 election. He won 77% of the vote in 2004 and was one of only a handful of Republicans who ran unopposed in 2006. Conaway’s district stretches from the Midland and San Angelo areas to several mostly rural areas northwest of Austin. This district will almost certainly remain in Republican hands.

[edit] District 12

Republican Kay Granger, who is considered a moderate by Texas Republican standards, won two-thirds of the vote in 2006, outperforming most of her fellow Texas Republican colleagues. The popular Fort Worth-based Granger is expected to win re-election in 2008 in this district comprised of western areas of Fort Worth and surrounding areas.

[edit] District 13

Mac Thornberry represents this Texas Panhandle district that encompasses Amarillo and Wichita Falls. The Clarendon Republican won by a 3 to 1 margin in 2006 and over nine-tenths of the vote in 2004. Thornberry will either run unopposed or with token opposition in 2008, as the district's constituents, including even Democrats, are generally conservative.

[edit] District 14

Republican Ron Paul is best known for his eccentric political views, which emphasize strongly libertarian — fiscally conservative, socially liberal — views. His slogan, “The Taxpayers’ Best Friend”, emphasizes his strong — and sometimes controversial — takes on fiscal conservatism, while his social policies, which includes ending the War on Drugs and legalizing marijuana, as well as his belief that the federal government should not be involved in wedge issues such as gay marriage, make him among the most socially liberal Republicans in the House and leading to a more negative nickname, "Dr. No", for his votes against much of the legislative agenda of both parties in Congress.

The 73-year-old physician, a resident of Surfside, could retire from office or face a primary challenge for his seat from Republicans who are more conservative, especially on social issues. Paul has also formed an exploratory committee for a 2008 presidential bid (his second, following his run as Libertarian Party nominee in 1988), which could result in an open seat in his district, extends from several far southern and southeastern areas of Houston, including Galveston and Brazoria County, to the Bay City, Wharton County, and Victoria areas. Conservative Republican State Senator Glenn Hegar, a freshman in that body, could be a potential candidate in the primary.

In 2006, Ron Paul won 60% of the vote against Democratic opponent Shane Sklar, a young rancher and Executive Director of the Independent Cattlemen’s Association of Texas (ICA) who ran on a promise to serve as a fiscally conservative Blue Dog Democrat and received a slightly more favorable rating from the NRA, in attempt to defeat the popular Paul. Sklar himself could be a potential challenger for the Democratic nomination, as well as Galveston County Sheriff Gean Leonard.

[edit] District 15

Democrat Rubén Hinojosa of Mercedes won 62% of the vote in 2004 in a South Texas district that had to be realigned following a Supreme Court decision that made the neighboring 23rd District unconstitutional. Hinojosa will be 68 in 2008 and could also possibly retire. This district leans to the Democrats and if Hinojosa does retire, a Democrat will be assured of victory and would be expected to have a somewhat moderate-to-conservative nature in comparison with most Democrats, which describe the policies of Hinojosa and his neighboring Hispanic colleagues, Henry Cuellar and Solomon Ortiz.

[edit] District 16

Democrat Silvestre Reyes represents El Paso and is the Chairman of the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, which could make him a target of some conservative Republicans over issues relating to immigration in spite of the fact that Reyes was a former border patrol agent. Still, the district remains overwhelmingly Democratic due to its large Hispanic population, and Reyes is popular with his constituents. He won two-thirds of the 2004 vote in a district that swung strongly in favor of John Kerry, and won with no Republican challenger in 2006.

[edit] District 17

Democrat Chet Edwards has been targeted for defeat in many recent elections. His district is widely seen as arguably the most heavily Republican district held by a Democrat, and won close elections in 2004 and 2006, the latter against a token Republican opponent. If Republicans select a high-profile candidate to run in 2008, Edwards could face a difficult race. The district, which includes the official residence of George W. Bush, stretches from several rural areas south of Fort Worth to Edwards’ hometown of Waco and the Brazos Valley region, which comprises the Bryan-College Station area.

[edit] District 18

Liberal Democrat Sheila Jackson Lee represents one of the most heavily Democratic areas in the state, covering several largely poor and African-American areas of Houston (including downtown Houston) and whose three previous representatives (Barbara Jordan, Mickey Leland and Craig Washington) were all African-Americans and took staunch liberal stances.

A regular during C-SPAN’s gavel-to-gavel coverage of the House while it is in session, Jackson Lee has also been seen as controversial, and is considered by some to be one of the “meanest” members of the House, as she is known to have one of the highest turnover rates of any congressional staff. Still, she is a well-respected figure in the district, and has been re-elected with at least 80% of the vote many times.

[edit] District 19

Republican Randy Neugebauer of Lubbock won re-election in 2006 with 68% of the vote. His district is heavily Republican and stretches from Lubbock to Big Spring and Abilene and was created in the controversial 2003 Texas redistricting, which in 2004 led to the defeat of Neugebauer’s challenger, conservative Democrat Charles Stenholm. Neugebauer is favored to win re-election.

[edit] District 20

Democrat Charlie Gonzalez represents much of heavily Democratic, largely Hispanic inner San Antonio, including the downtown area. Gonzalez won 87% of the vote in 2006 against a Libertarian opponent and two-thirds of the 2004 vote. Gonzalez is heavily favored to win re-election to this seat, which was once held by his father, Henry Gonzalez for nearly four decades. The Gonzalez family will have represented this district for 47 years in 2008.

[edit] District 21

Longtime representative Lamar Smith was the only Republican to win among the five congressional districts realigned as a result of a Supreme Court ruling that declared the nearby 23rd District unconstitutional as a result of allegations of diluted Hispanic voting power during the controversial 2003 Texas redistricting. Smith ended up being moved into a district that now encompasses several northern San Antonio suburbs as well as the Texas Hill Country (which was once represented by the 23rd's previous congressman, Henry Bonilla) and western parts of Travis County. Smith won 60% of the vote in 2006 against six challengers, including two Democrats, in a special election that resulted from the ruling.

[edit] District 22

This district was once represented by former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, who resigned amid allegations of corruption surrounding his campaign finance activities for ARMPAC and its Texas division, TRMPAC.

Moderate Democrat Nick Lampson, who moved from Beaumont to Stafford to run against DeLay, ended up winning the seat after Republicans were forced to run a write-in campaign for dermatologist and former Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, who won a special election (whose candidates did not include Lampson) to fill the remaining seven weeks of DeLay’s unexpired term. The write-in campaign resulted from a court ruling filed by Democrats that prevented the Republicans from removing DeLay’s name from the ballot, arguing that election regulations in Texas prevented the GOP from removing DeLay’s name unless he moved out-of-state, which he did in moving to Alexandria, Virginia from his home in Sugar Land.

Given these circumstances, and the fact that John Kerry only carried one-third of the district in 2004, Lampson is considered by many political pundits to be among the most vulnerable Democrats in 2008. The heavily Republican district includes several of Houston’s affluent southern suburbs, including all of Sugar Land, affluent areas of Missouri City, Pearland, Pasadena and its surrounding smaller municipalities, and the Clear Lake master-planned community. The district is also home to the NASA Johnson Space Center, which houses Mission Control, and Ellington Field. Lampson is also being mentioned as a potential candidate for the Senate in 2008, where he would face marginal Republican incumbent John Cornyn.

In addition to the general election, the Republican primary is also expected to be a hard-fought contest. Shelley Sekula-Gibbs created a stir with her constituents shortly after being sworn in for the last seven weeks of the 109th Congress when several former DeLay staffers walked out on her and alleged that Sekula-Gibbs espoused unprofessional behavior. Sekula-Gibbs, however, claims that the staffers themselves acted unprofessionally to her and therefore, she called for an ethics investigation.

Other high-profile Republican candidates include popular three-term Sugar Land mayor David Wallace, who is not seeking re-election to another term in that position and was the initial favorite among Republicans before precinct chairs passed over Wallace in favor of Sekula-Gibbs to the displeasure of the Republican establishment in Fort Bend County. Harris County Tax Assessor-Collector Paul Bettencourt, who is well-known throughout the Houston area, especially in his home county, is also a strong candidate.

[edit] District 23

Ciro Rodriguez, a former Democratic congressman from San Antonio, defeated incumbent Republican Henry Bonilla in a December runoff after finishing in second place to Bonilla during the November general election, when Rodriguez himself ran out of money but was later helped by the DCCC. He was a former congressman who represented the nearby 28th District until a controversial redistricting plan that made this district more heavily Republican and favorable to Bonilla resulted in his defeat by that district’s current representative, Henry Cuellar. Bonilla was seen as an ally of Tom DeLay, who engineered the redistricting. Also, a Supreme Court ruled Bonilla’s district, which was situated in the Hill Country suburbs of San Antonio, unconstitutional over claims that Hispanic voting rights were diluted in the redistricting. This resulted in the 23rd becoming much more Democratic with the addition of south San Antonio, which is Rodriguez’s home base, and the removal of the Hill Country portions from the district, which were moved to Lamar Smith’s district.

This majority-Hispanic district could become a target of Republicans in 2008 that look to take back this seat. Bonilla himself is a potential candidate, but some are viewing him simply as “damaged goods” due to his strong connections to lobbyists. Other areas represented in the district include the border towns of Del Rio and Eagle Pass, as well as Big Bend National Park and eastern El Paso County.

[edit] District 24

Republican Kenny Marchant of Coppell won 60% of the vote in this Republican-leaning district that gave George W. Bush 65% of the vote in 2004. Marchant is heavily favored to win re-election to this district, which is located in the middle of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex and includes the suburbs of Duncanville and Cedar Hill in the south, Grand Prairie and part of Irving in the central area of the district, and Colleyville, Grapevine and the Carrollton-Farmers Branch area in the south, as well as the DFW Airport. Marchant’s district was previously represented by Martin Frost, who was moved out of this district in Tom DeLay’s controversial 2003 redistricting of the state.

[edit] District 25

Austin Democrat Lloyd Doggett represents a Democratic-leaning constituency that is centered around the Austin area and several smaller rural areas to the south and east which either lean Republican and strongly favor Republicans. Doggett won 67% of the vote against a largely unknown Republican opponent who initially ran as a Libertarian until the previous 25th district was thrown out in a Supreme Court ruling that declared the nearby 23rd District of Henry Bonilla unconstitutional; this district was realigned as a result of the controversial mid-decade redistricting engineered by former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, which realigned Doggett's district into the shape of a fajita strip.

[edit] District 26

Republican Michael Burgess of Lewisville won 60% of the vote in 2006 against an underfunded Democratic opponent, a six-percent drop from his 2004 victory against another Democrat. However, Burgess will be assured of a safe seat, as his seat takes in most of Denton County as well as parts of Fort Worth and lean heavily in favor of the Republican Party. The district was once represented by former House Majority Leader Dick Armey, who engineered the 1994 Republican Revolution along with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

[edit] District 27

Moderate Democrat Solomon Ortiz, the Dean of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, may retire. Ortiz received 57% of the vote in 2006, a six-point decline from his 2004 performance, which was somewhat of an anomaly given the strong anti-Republican voting mood of 2006, where Democrats either performed above their 2004 performance or ran without opposition. In 2004, George W. Bush carried this South Texas district, which includes Corpus Christi as well as Brownsville and South Padre Island.

If the Corpus Christi-based Ortiz (who will be 71 in 2008) does retire, it is widely speculated that his son, State Representative Solomon Ortiz, Jr., will run for his father’s seat. However, Republicans, regardless of what happens to the elder Ortiz, may try to take this seat given its vulnerability.

[edit] District 28

Conservative Democrat Henry Cuellar won 68% of the vote in 2006 against another Democrat who received 20% of the vote. Even though Cuellar is becoming a rising star in the Democratic Party, and has even been seen by some as a potential Democratic challenger to Senator John Cornyn, Cuellar could face a challenge for his seat, which includes Laredo (where Cuellar resides) and areas south of San Antonio, due to his somewhat conservative voting record. For instance, Cuellar received the backing of the conservative Club for Growth during his 2006 primary campaign against Ciro Rodriguez, his predecessor, who later went on to win the 23rd District held by Republican Henry Bonilla, whom Cuellar nearly defeated in 2002.

[edit] District 29

Democrat Gene Green of Houston has won re-election easily without facing a primary challenge in this strongly Latino, heavily Democratic district, which covers eastern portions of Houston as well as some of its suburbs. It is highly unlikely that Green will face a strong challenge, whether it is from Republicans or from his own party.

[edit] District 30

Dallas Democrat Eddie Bernice Johnson may retire. She will be 73 in 2008 and represents inner city areas of Dallas, including its downtown areas, as well as several southern Dallas County suburbs south of the city, which boast a large African-American voting bloc. If Johnson does retire, the Democratic primary is expected to be the real contest in this race.

[edit] District 31

John Carter of Round Rock won 59% of the vote in 2006 against a token Democratic opponent. His district, which was created as a result of the 2000 Census, stretches across a large segment of Central Texas from the northern Williamson County suburbs of Austin to the gigantic Fort Hood military base, all the way north to Stephenville. This description of the district would make it an opportunity for the Fighting Dems, a faction of military veterans who are members of the Democratic Party.

[edit] District 32

Six-term incumbent and conservative Republican Pete Sessions of Dallas is likely considered to be a vulnerable candidate for a number of reasons.

First, he is known to have close ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff, an issue that is likely to become the focus of his Democratic challenger’s campaign in 2008. Also, while Sessions improved on his margin from his hotly contested 2004 race against Democrat Martin Frost, who was displaced from his previous district as a result of the controversial 2003 redistricting engineered by former House Majority Leader and Abramoff ally, Tom DeLay, it was only by a 2% margin (from 54% in 2004 to 56% in 2006). Contrarily, George W. Bush carried 59% of the vote in the district to 41% of the vote for John Kerry in 2004.

Finally, in 2006, Democrats made unexpected gains in Dallas County, winning the District Attorney office and all contested state district judgeships in the county, along with a number of countywide offices on the basis of corruption within the local Republican establishment as well as momentum gained from Democratic Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez’s unexpected 2004 victory.

Still, in spite of these factors, Sessions is likely favored to win this Republican-leaning district, which includes several northern affluent areas of Dallas, including Highland Park, and significant chunks of the suburbs of Irving and Richardson.

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